Follow the Leader?
April 12, 2005
by Chris Wang
We're one week into the season and I can't tell you how many managers are panicking that their teams are performing poorly even though their lineup is stacked with JD Drew, Victor Martinez, Albert Pujols, Gary Sheffield, Oliver Perez, etc.
Let me give those managers some advice: relax and have patience. Remember that most teams have played just 7 games this season and still have 155 games to play! The season isn't a Joey Gathright foot race, but more like a Mo Vaughn vs. Cecil Fielder eating contest. I guarantee Brian Roberts will not continue to hit more homers than Pujols and A-Rod combined.
On the flip side, you should try to take advantage of owners that are impatient with their squads and this is the time to strike. Try to make deals for their struggling sluggers and pawn off your guys that are clearly going to slow down. Target owners that have already make fifteen add/drops picking up every player that has had one good day.
The early season does bring great opportunities off the waiver wire but which players are for real and which are aberrations? Do you blindly follow the leader into battle? Not at "On Deck" - today we'll take a look at the leaders and laggers and find out which are worth your while.
Batting Average - Top 10
1. Damian Miller .471-1-1
Miller is a great example of a small sample size as he's played in just 4 games and is certainly swinging a hot bat. He's definitely worth a roster spot in NL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues. He's consistent as they come as he'll hit around .270 and should return to low-teens power as Milwaukee is a great hitters park.
2. Ichiro Suzuki .464-0-3
Ichiro! I'll always love that name. Writers speculate that Ichiro has a shot at .400 and considering that 19 more hits last year would have gotten him there, it's certainly possible. He's great for your team average in fantasy baseball - he just piles on the at-bats.
3. Jeff Kent .458-1-8
Kent is providing the offense that DePodesta hoped for but his first six games came on the road. In his career at Dodger Stadium, Kent has hit .250/.316/.441 with 12 homers and 35 RBI in 256 at-bats. He's still good for 20+ homers which I'll take any time from a second baseman, just expect his average to slip below his .290 career mark.
4. Edgardo Alfonzo .455-2-5
I've been a Fonzie fan since his days in NY so it's great to see him off to a hot start. He attributes his success to playing winter ball in Venezuela and being in better shape. If his back is healthy, he should rebound to 15-20 homers.
5. Carlos Guillen .455-0-2
I still don't trust Guillen's great season in 2004 (.318-20-97-12), which looks like a fluke but he's proven me wrong in his first 22 at-bats.
6. Pat Burrell .448-4-17
Burrell's wrist injury is a serious concern but he's been white hot from the start. He still has 40-homer potential though he's more likely to hit around 30. Don't expect his torrid RBI pace to continue.
7. Willy Taveras .429-0-2
Taveras never played a game above Double-A until this season and he's off to a great start. His minor league play suggests that he's for real and he should be one of the top leadoff men in the game - he takes his walks and stole 55 bases in 103 games last year. Phil Garner will have to move this kid to leadoff as Adam Everett and his career OBP of .315 have no business at the top of the order.
8. Eric Hinske .417-2-10
Hinske won the ROY award in 2002 then suffered a broken hand in 2003 which changed his swing. He's re-worked his swing which has paid dividends early on. Hinske won't hit for a high average but he should hit 20+ homers and steal around 12 bases.
9. Brad Wilkerson .414-1-3
Wilkerson is one of the most underrated players in the game. He still strikes out a ton but he also takes his share of walks (106+ in 2004). He hit for the cycle in the first week and he's a good bet for 30 homers and 10+ steals again in 2005.
10. Cesar Izturis .407-1-5
Izturis has actually turned into a serviceable hitter after I watched him waste at-bats in LA from 2002-2003. He still doesn't hit for any power but he should hit .290 with 25-30 steals.
Batting Average - Bottom 10
1) J.D. Drew .074-0-0
Drew's lucky he started his Dodger career on the road as his 0-24 start would certainly have beckoned the boo birds in LA. He's way too good to struggle this badly so try and convince your league's Drew owner that he has a bad knee (which may be likely anyway so it's not a lie) and steal him away for cheap.
2) Luis Castillo .095-0-0
Another ugly start from a veteran but Castillo is a career .291 hitter so there's nothing to worry about.
3) Brad Ausmus .111-0-0
Ausmus is a weak hitter but even he's not this bad. He still shouldn't be near your fantasy roster unless you're in an NL-only league.
4) Melvin Mora .115-0-1
Was Mora really a late bloomer having his best seasons at 31 and 32-years-old or was it just a extended fluke? Last season (.340-27-104) is probably going to be his career year but he should produce solid numbers as long as he can stay healthy. He looked impatient in his first week as he didn't draw a walk and struck out 8 times.
5) Aaron Rowand .115-1-3
Rowand is Carlos Lee lite so it's no wonder that the Sox kept the guy with the lighter salary. Rowand's plate discipline is decent but his average will likely be closer to .270-280 this season after hitting .310 last year. If everything goes well he can hit 30 homers and steal 20 bases; but I wouldn't expect much better than he did last season (24-17).
6) Chone Figgins .115-0-2
While he doesn't have a set position, Figgins still manages to get in the lineup as a super-utility man and should steal 30+ again in 2005. He doesn't have much power but he'll hit for a solid average and gets on base enough to stay in the lineup.
7) John Buck .136-0-0
Buck remains a solid sleeper pick but don't rely on him as your main backstop. He still doesn't control the strike zone very well as he struck out 79 times in 71 games last year and has struck out 6 times in 6 games this season. He'll still deliver some pop but don't expect much more than a .240 average.
8) Aaron Boone .138-2-6
Boone still has some rust from missing all of last season with a torn ACL. Don't expect him to run like he did in 2002-2003. He'll probably hit around .240-.250 with 20+ homers.
9) Bernie Williams .143-0-1
Bernie is on the downside of his career and probably isn't worth a roster spot in your standard 12-team mixed league. The past two years he's hit .262 with 20 homer power but that's pretty easy to find in the outfield. He now bats 8th in the order which will hurt his RBI and run scoring opportunities.
10) Cristian Guzman .148-0-0
I still have no idea why Washington signed Guzman to a 4-year deal when he probably didn't even have any other multi-year offers on the table. His .303 career OBP is pitiful and he's never developed into a very smart basestealer (40 steals, 28 caught in the last 3 years).
Home Runs - Top 10
Troy Glaus, Pat Burrell: tied with 4
Both Glaus and Burrell have great raw power so it's no surprise to see them leading the league in homers. Both have struggled with injuries in the past couple of years but if they're healthy, both could fight for the home run title in the NL.
Dmitri Young, Joe Randa, Jose Guillen, Paul Konerko, Alfonso Soriano, Xavier Nady, Brian Roberts, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Cantu: all tied with 3
Dmitri Young had a dream opening day going a perfect 4-4 and swatting three homers. He was picked up in 3 of my leagues and he may very well be worth a roster spot, just don't expect anymore three homer days. He's only topped 20 homers in 2 of his 8 major league seasons, so he's more likely to hit with teens power from here on out.
Joe Randa had a great first week hitting .400-3-8. He may be hitting in a great hitters park in Cincy, but he spent several years hitting in a cushy park in KC. Randa has never hit more than 16 homers in a season and it would be a shock if he did at the age of 35. Sell high!
Isn't it great to start the year out in Colorado? Xavier Nady answered with an emphatic yes hitting .500-2-5 in his opening series. Nady is set to get more at-bats in San Diego with Eric Young possibly out for the year and Dave Roberts a chronic DL case. He's been overmatched in the majors the last couple of years but scouts always loved his raw power (30+ potential). He'll be a good low risk, high reward pickup in NL-only leagues.
Jorge Cantu can thank Roberto Alomar for retiring because he'd be in Triple-A otherwise. He's been red hot hitting homers in three consecutive games and is hitting .391 (9-23). The 23-year-old Cantu has quickly developed into a top 10 fantasy second baseman that will hit .300 with 20+ homers.
Brian Roberts has 3 homers and no steals?!?! Coming into the year, Roberts had 11 career homers in 1457 at-bats; and he's hit 3 in 25 at-bats this year. Doesn't Roberts realize that fantasy owners drafted him for his steals, not for home run power? He did hit 50 doubles last year and if he put a little more lift into his swing, he could surprise the league and hit with teens power this season - wouldn't that be gravy...
If you have any questions, comments or suggestions about this column, please use the comments section below or feel free to e-mail me at cwang@fantasyinfocentral.com.
Fantasy Baseball 
Watch for him to pick things up, when?, we don't know, but when he does he usually puts up big numbers for about a month, then he will return to his usual self.
If you can pick up Ausmus in the beginning of his hot streak, you can ride him at a weak catcher position for about a month and then ditch him for the remainder of the season.
Luis Castillo and Rowand are major disappointments to start the year but as your wrote I'm gonna hang on to them and wait for the turnaround.
Luis Castillo and Rowand are major disappointments to start the year but as your wrote I'm gonna hang on to them and wait for the turnaround.
As I remember, Castillo is usually a slow starter. Perhaps not a bad first half player, but for 2 years previous to this one I drafted him late at a shallow position looking for average, runs and steals. I often remember trading him because he didn't perform early but I do believe he always put up good numbers by season's end.