April: The Dust Settles
May 05, 2005
by Chris Wang
Opening Day blew by and then so did the month of April. Now you're left wondering what happened to your fantasy squad as 4 weeks is no longer a slump but now classified as a funk if it's Eric Chavez or Mike Lowell. Before long we'll either hear that these players have been playing with an undisclosed injury or they should be pounding the ball to average out their pathetic April showing. To help you sort through the mess, let's take a look around the diamond to see who's for real and who to snatch from an even more inpatient owner.
CATCHER
Sell High
Gregg Zaun (Tor) .286-3-16
The 34-year-old catcher has never hit more than 7 homers and 33 RBI in any season but cranked a grand slam and a 3-run dinger in April to inflate his RBI total. Don't expect those types of opportunities to continue for the Jays #8 hitter.
Buy Low
AJ Pierzynski (CWS) .269-1-2
Pierzynski has scored 12 runs but has only driven in 2? The career .293 hitter has driven in 151 runs over the last two years.
Mike Lieberthal (Phi) .239-1-4
Lieberthal is underachieving like the Phillies as a whole. Keep in mind that he hit just .173-3-9 last April but ended up hitting .271-17-61. Hitting in Citizens Bank Park will make it easy for Lieberthal to hit with double-digit power.
Hold
Brandon Inge (Det) .333-2-13-1
I admit that I wasn't a believer heading into the season but he's convinced me that he can hit and he's an asset at the catching position. He's increased his walk rate (as well as his strikeout rate) and he should set career highs across all categories as he'll be in the lineup everyday.
FIRST BASE
Sell High
Dmitri Young (Det) .306-5-17
Da Meat Hook can hit but his opening day 3 homer extravaganza has him overvalued. Pawn him off to someone that thinks he'll have a career year at 31 and doesn't realize that he's an injury risk (missed 58 games last year and 108 in '02).
Buy Low
Todd Helton (Col) .267-1-9
Convince the owner that Helton won't hit because he's in a crappy lineup and doesn't get any pitches to hit - remember that Shawn Green carried the Dodgers lineup a few years ago with no support and the team was in first place. The Rockies will be out of most games and Helton will certainly get his pitches to hit - he'll hit 30+ homers again this year.
Cut
Jason Giambi (NYY) .224-3-6
Giambi's batting eye is still solid (.400 OBP), but his bat speed isn't there and isn't likely to return. His .357 SLG is lower than Juan Pierre and Sean Burroughs. You have to wonder if the Yankees will swallow Giambi's contract sooner than later... Ouch.
SECOND BASE
Sell High
Brian Roberts (Bal) .379-8-26-10
Roberts in on pace to hit 48 homers, 162 RBI and 72 steals!!! It's evident the kid is going to have a monster year but there's no way he can keep up this torrid pace. If you can get a first round equivalent for Roberts, I'd take it; if not, then hold on.
Buy Low
Chase Utley (Phi) .292-3-9
Manager Charlie Manuel has to keep this kid in the lineup. He's been producing consistently and if he wants to play Polanco then he should be sitting David Bell (.221-1-10) and his anemic bat.
Hold
Ron Belliard (Cle) .307-5-13
Belliard's power isn't this good but he'll still probably set his career high in homers. He hit 48 doubles and 12 homers last year so maybe he's got a bit more lift in his swing this year like Brian Roberts. Don't be surprised if he hits 15-20 homers.
THIRD BASE
Sell High
Joe Randa (Cin) .269-4-14
Randa is off to a hot start but he's never hit more than 16 homers in any season and at 35, it's doubtful that he'll do it this yeear. Expect a huge slump in the coming weeks.
Buy Low
Mike Lowell (Fla) .198-2-8
Eric Chavez (Oak) .194-2-9
Below the Mendoza line is a killer to the team average, but these two will surely come around.
Hold
Russ Branyan (Mil) .333-5-14
Branyan tries to hit the ball out of the stadium every time he swings and this season he's been more patient and has made more contact. His average will likely plummet but if you can stomach his average, he should hit 20+ homers.
SHORTSTOP
Sell High
Neifi Perez (ChC) .368-3-12
With those numbers, the Cubs won't miss Garciaparra one bit. Too bad, Perez is playing so far over his head that the clouds will soon block his vision. He's a career .271/.302/.382 hitter. Try to convince another owner that Perez is on steroids and that the power surge will continue...
Buy Low
Edgar Renteria (Bos) .228-2-9-1
Renteria is adjusting to the AL pitchers and is too good a hitter not to turn it around. He'll start taking advantage of the Green Monster soon enough.
Hold
Juliio Lugo (TB) .281-0-10-8
Lugo is one of the most underrated shortstops in fantasy. He gives you a decent average (career .271) with speed and his power should be coming shortly (he hit 7 homers last year and 15 in 2003). The D'Rays have been very aggressive on the bases so he'll keep on running.
OUTFIELD
Sell High
Victor Diaz (NYM) .292-3-10-2
Diaz has shown that he can hit at the major league level but unless the Mets make a trade, Diaz will be left without a position. Mike Cameron returns this weekend, Cliff Floyd is the hottest hitter in the game and Beltran is Beltran.
Luis Matos (Bal) .319-1-12-7
Trade Matos to a team in desperate need for speed. He's on pace for 42 steals - his career high is 15 in 109 games in 2003.
Juan Encarnacion (Fla) .276-4-23
Encarnacion almost didn't have a job coming out of spring training and he finished April with the 9th most RBIs in the majors. If he can keep up his improved walk rate, then he'll produce; but it's far more likely that he reverts to his old habits and his career .313 OBP.
Buy Low
Bobby Abreu (Phi) .261-1-7-7
Abreu always seems to start off slow.
Craig Wilson (Pit) .234-0-4-2
Wilson has a ton of natural power and the homers will come. His walk rate is actually up so try to get him at a rock bottom value.
Steve Finley (Ana) .149-4-12-4
Someone is bound to be sick of seeing the o-fers next to Finley's name. His .149 average is pathetic but he's hit just .229 over the last 3 Aprils. He gets red hot in May and June. Play up the fact that Finley is 40-years-old and is playing more like he's 50.
Hold
Jason Lane (Hou) .295-4-13-5
Playing half his games at cozy Minute Maid Park should keep his power numbers up but don't expect his stolen base totals to keep up with his homers. Lane is living up to his potential now that he finally has an everyday job.
Brady Clark (Mil) .295-3-13-3
Clark's skill set isn't overwhelming but he can get on base and should steal 20+ bases. Considering that he could be sitting on the waiver wire, he's a steal...
Wily Mo Pena (Cin) .326-5-11
5 homers in 43 April at-bats - thats a .814 SLG! The Reds have to find a way to get Pena in the lineup as his bat is for real. It feels like he's been around for a long time but he's just 23.
If you want more info on a specific player that I didn't go into or if you have any questions, comments or suggestions about this column, please use the comments section below or feel free to e-mail me at cwang@fantasyinfocentral.com.
Fantasy Baseball 
I have been trying to sell Burnitz high but I can not even get equal value for what he is truly worth! Hopefully he can keep his power numbers up so I don't have to worry bout this...
I have been trying to sell Burnitz high but I can not even get equal value for what he is truly worth! Hopefully he can keep his power numbers up so I don't have to worry bout this...
You don't have to worry about Burnitz's power as he was hitting 30+ homers before he went to Coors last year. Just don't expect much more than a .250 average
Now that I am lacking a 2B, the best choices on the waiver wire sadly are Utley, Counsell, Matsui, Belliard, Miles, Orlando Hudson, Kennedy, Mike Lamb. I actually drafted Brian Roberts for speed and now need some SB's at this position. What do you think? Who will have the most steals among this group the rest of the season. Who is the best overall? Thanks.
I also have some problems at 3b. I was using Pedro Feliz there until Nomar went down. I've slid Pedro to short, and the choices at 3b are C. Tracy, G. Atkins, and B. Inge? I picked up Inge right when he went into his slump. I now like the idea of platooning Tracy and Atkins, playing them only when they're home, however doing so would mean I would have to waive either Rowand, B. Giles, or Jason Lane to make room on the roster.
You are looking for steals then of those guys listed I'd say Counsell.
Now that I am lacking a 2B, the best choices on the waiver wire sadly are Utley, Counsell, Matsui, Belliard, Miles, Orlando Hudson, Kennedy, Mike Lamb. I actually drafted Brian Roberts for speed and now need some SB's at this position. What do you think? Who will have the most steals among this group the rest of the season. Who is the best overall? Thanks.
Sadly if you need speed, Counsell is the best choice out of that group. Don't expect his steal total to continue to pile up this fast though as his career high in steals is 17 last year. The key to Counsell will be for him to continue to get on base. He has a career .348 OBP, but this season he's been walking more than a man without a drivers license as he's drawn 24 walks in 29 games and has a .413 OBP - if he can keep that number around .400, he'll have plenty of chances to steal more bases.
I also have some problems at 3b. I was using Pedro Feliz there until Nomar went down. I've slid Pedro to short, and the choices at 3b are C. Tracy, G. Atkins, and B. Inge? I picked up Inge right when he went into his slump. I now like the idea of platooning Tracy and Atkins, playing them only when they're home, however doing so would mean I would have to waive either Rowand, B. Giles, or Jason Lane to make room on the roster.
Inge has a lot more value at catcher than third base. Because of that fact, you should consider dealing Inge or your other catcher to upgrade at another position. I would also recommend going after Atkins for the hot corner. People have given up on this kid way too fast. He's hitting just .242 in 10 games but he's played just one game at Coors so far. The balls start to really fly as the weather gets warmer and Atkins is going to hit with more power than Inge.
BTW, my starting catcher is I Rod. I'm offering him around the league for 2B and 3B, I can't even get anyone to reject my offers. It's tough to play in a non-trading league.
Now that Mike Lamb takes over for Bagwell at 1B, but has 2B eligibility, is Mike the better option at 2B over Utley.
It's hard to go with any Astro at this time because they don't score runs. I would still go with Utley.
Now that Mike Lamb takes over for Bagwell at 1B, but has 2B eligibility, is Mike the better option at 2B over Utley.
Lamb has some pop but doesn't have the talent that Utley has.
I'd have to say Chase Utley.