Free Agent Frenzy
March 01, 2006
Guest Columnist: James Meyerriecks
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Last Wednesday, we took a look at about half of the major moves made this offseason by analyzing more than twenty of the biggest trades that went down in The Hook. Today, we'll check out the rest of the major moves as we shift our focus to the biggest free agent signings of the offseason. Again, while we'll try to take how each move will affect the team involved into account, our major focus will be on how it impacts the individual player's stock in fantasyland.
Blue Jays sign RP B.J. Ryan
Player Impact: For the most part, this is a lateral move for Ryan. He was one of the top closers in the league for the Orioles last season, and figures to be one of the best yet again with the Blue Jays in 2006. The move may benefit him a bit because the Blue Jays figure to win around 85-90 games because of their moves in the offseason. Expect him to break the forty save mark (36 last year), but not by much.
Team Impact: While A.J. Burnett garnered a lot more hype, the Ryan signing addressed what has been the Jays' biggest need for almost a decade. The last elite closer they had was Tom Henke (many of our younger readers may be asking who exactly that is, which speaks volumes for how much this move will solidify the Jays' biggest weakness), and the Jays have mowed through five closers in the past three seasons. They should be a much scarier team when they have a late lead, and their starters will reap the benefits.
Mets sign RP Billy Wagner
Player Impact: Minimal. Wagner went from closing on one contending team to another. The depth of the fences in Shea (particularly in left, though Wags is extremely difficult to pull) may help him out a bit, but it's doubtful that they'll make much of a difference considering how little he has to pitch in each appearance.
Team Impact: Huge. The criticism that Braden Looper took in New York may have been a bit extreme, but it's clear that he was far from an elite fireman. Wagner will step in and give the Mets one of the top five closers in the league, making just about any lead they have entering the ninth a safe one.
Orioles sign C Ramon Hernandez
Player Impact: Hernandez was actually having a great season prior to his wrist injury last season despite playing in Petco Park. A move back to the American League and into a better (not much better, but better) hitter's park should help him, as should Javy Lopez' presence. Hernandez will be able to rest a little more behind the plate, and should have a career year for the O's.
Team Impact: With Lopez already on board, the move was a bit questionable. However, no team can match the Orioles' depth behind the plate, and both will be in the lineup nearly every day (DH/1B). With a nice under the radar move, the O's filled the hole at DH and strengthened themselves defensively.
Blue Jays sign SP A.J. Burnett
Player Impact: The move from Florida to Toronto may have a tremendous effect on the run support he receives. The Jays averaged 4.78 runs per game last season, 0.35 more than the Marlins. That figures to be the only positive impact we'll see for Burnett, though. He's moved from a tremendous pitcher's park to one of the top hitter's parks in the league. He's also moved from one of the lowest-scoring divisions in league history to a division where he'll face (arguably) the top two offenses in baseball (Yankees and Red Sox) at least seven times. Expect his win total to rise, but it will come at a cost.
Team Impact: Burnett was far from an overwhelming acquisition (particularly at the price). He will, however, form what could become a dominant 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Roy Halladay. The Jays' rotation looked mediocre without him, but should now be considered one of the top ten in the game.
White Sox re-sign 1B Paul Konerko
Player Impact: It's doubtful that Konerko could have signed on with a team that had a better supporting cast, and it's clear that (with the exception of Colorado) he would have had a difficult time finding a park that would suit his power better. While it's impossible to say this move will help his fantasy value, it didn't hurt it.... pretty much anywhere else he would have gone (Anaheim was the main team in the running) would have hampered his value.
Team Impact: He may not have gotten all of the accolades that Scott Podsednik, Tad Iguchi, Joe Crede, or even Geoff Blum got, but Konerko was probably the most important player on the White Sox World Championship team last season. This was a terrific move to stand pat and re-sign him by Kenny Williams.
Padres re-sign OF Brian Giles
Player Impact: Ugh! Giles is aging, but he's probably still capable of hitting 30 bombs and driving in 100 runs.............. as long as he doesn't have to call Petco Park home. If he'd left, he's a very good second outfielder (wherever he would have ended up). Unfortunately, a return to the Pads means that he's a mediocre third outfielder at best.
Team Impact: While it was a horrible move for Giles, it was great for the Padres. He's got a great glove and a terrific bat. Though Petco will keep his numbers in check, few players (if any) can outhit him there.
Phillies sign RP Tom Gordon
Player Impact: Gordon was one of very few middle relievers to have value the past couple of seasons when he was with the Yankees. The move to Philadelphia means that he'll return to the back of the bullpen, where his fantasy value shoots up from being minimal to massive. Gordon isn't likely to earn top ten status or anything, but he'll most likely be a top fifteen closer by year's end, and has proven he can handle the job in the past.
Team Impact: The Phillies would much rather have retained Billy Wagner, but signing Gordon was cost efficient. He's aging, but he'll make a fine closer for the Phils. The signing also allows them to move Ryan Madson, who has been spectacular in a setup role the past two years, to the rotation.
Yankees sign OF Johnny Damon
Player Impact: There really shouldn't be much of an impact on Damon's numbers. He moves from the top of one of the best lineups in baseball to the top of another. If we do see an impact, it should be in the running game. While most of the Yankee hype talks about how powerful their offense is, Joe Torre consistently puts the wheels in motion on the basepaths more than most managers. Since 1998, the Yankees have been in the top half of the American League in stolen bases in all but two seasons. Comparitively, the Red Sox have finished in the top ten in the AL in steals just twice in that same span.
Team Impact: Damon gives the Yanks a true leadoff man and a true centerfielder who isn't way past his prime (sorry Bernie), two things that they've been lacking the past three years. He'll be a tremendous defensive upgrade and will allow Derek Jeter to move back to the two-hole in the lineup, a spot that he's a little better suited for.
Indians sign SP Paul Byrd
Player Impact: Minimal. He goes from one contender in a neutral pitcher's park to another. On the positive side, the Tribe seems to be on more of an upswing than the Angels, and he figures to get a little more run support. While it's not major, the move from the AL West to the AL Central should mean that he'll face the hapless Royals and Tigers a few more times in place of a couple of trips to Texas.
Team Impact: Will Byrd's numbers be similar to Kevin Millwood's (lost in free agency) from last season? Not likely. Will they help to make up for Millwood's loss? Absolutely. Will he be better than Millwood will be in Texas this season? Don't be surprised. Byrd brings a nice veteran presence to a young staff that looks ready to win now.
Rangers sign SP Kevin Millwood
Player Impact: Millwood moves from a neutral pitcher's park to an extreme hitter's park; in short, don't expect for him to lead the AL in ERA again. He's likely to get more support in Texas and win a few more games (he won just nine in an otherwise phenomenal season for the Tribe last year), but his overall numbers should take a drastic hit.
Team Impact: Coupled with the acquisition of Adam Eaton, Texas' Millwood signing did a nice job of addressing their primary need (pitching) this offseason without damaging their amazing lineup. If Eaton and Millwood can deliver, we may finally see them put a real charge into the Angels and Athletics as they make a run at the AL West.
Dodgers sign SS Rafael Furcal
Player Impact: The move won't hurt Furcal as much as many may think. His power numbers might actually improve, despite Chavez Ravine's reputation as a pitcher's park (it actually suppresses everything but power). His average will likely drop a bit, as will his stolen base total. All-around, though, I don't think we're looking at much of an impact one way or another.
Team Impact: Signing Furcal should give the Dodgers some decent trade bait when Cesar Izturis is healthy (expected to be mid-July), though it could actually lead to a shift around the infield (Nomar to third? Kent to first? Izturis to second?) around Furcal. At the very least, it gives the Dodgers something they've lacked since Brett Butler retired... a solid leadoff man.
Giants sign SP Matt Morris
Player Impact: Morris, who has had a penchant for the long ball in St. Louis the past two seasons, should benefit from his move to SBC Park. Though SBC isn't a great pitcher's park overall, it does suppress power, so he should have an easier time keeping the ball in the yard.
Team Impact: At this point in his career, Morris is far from a major addition, but he's a definite improvement over Brett Tomko.
Tigers sign SP Kenny Rogers and RP Todd Jones
Player Impact: In one respect, Rogers may actually benefit from this move. He'll move from Ameriquest (#2 hitter's park) to Comerica (neutral pitcher's park). His run support will take a hit, however. At 41 (and coming off a horrific second half), it's difficult to see Rogers coming even close to last year's numbers. Jones figures to have a slightly better team behind him in Detroit, so he should end up getting his fair share of save opportunities. Like Rogers, he's coming off his best year in over a decade.
Team Impact: It's hard to imagine that Matt Millen gets all of the bad press in Detroit after Dave Dombrowski's two key moves this offseason. He has a fine stockpile of young (seemingly major-league ready) starters in the minors, with Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya prepared to battle for the fifth spot. He was developing a fine young closer in Fernando Rodney, who looked solid down the stretch in the role last season. While all three of them seem to be just about ready, he went out and wasted $27 million for two years each of Rogers (41) and Jones (38), each of whom are coming off career years that came out of nowhere.
Cardinals sign RP Braden Looper and RP Ricardo Rincon
Player Impact: Looper won't have nearly the value as a setup man in St. Louis that he did in New York as the closer, but he should post better secondary numbers in a smaller leverage role. Rincon remains a nice lefty setup man who has value in holds leagues, but nowhere else.
Team Impact: After losing Ray King and Julian Tavarez in the offseason (not to mention Al Reyes due to Tommy John surgery), Looper and Rincon should give the Redbirds a nice pair to bridge the gap between the starters and Jason Isringhausen. Looper also gives them decent insurance, as he's closed with (some) success in the past.
Yankees sign RP Kyle Farnsworth and RP Octavio Dotel
Player Impact: Farnworth leaves a situation where he was closing in Atlanta to set up the most dominant closer in the game. His value drops significantly, though he still has some value in mixed leagues because of his strikeout numbers. The way Huston Street took off last year, Dotel wasn't going to get another shot to close in Oakland, and it's doubtful anyone would have taken a chance on him to close this season anyway. Though he won't close at any point, Dotel has some nice sleeper value as a setup man, but should be looked at more as a waiver pickup than someone to draft.
Team Impact: Sounds just like Steinbrenner. If you lose one of the top setup men in the game (Tom Gordon), go out and overpay a bit for two stud relievers that are of a slightly lower caliber. It's doubtful they'll miss Gordon when both Farnsworth and Dotel are healthy.
Mariners sign SP Jarrod Washburn
Player Impact: Minimal. He'll face virtually the same competition, and goes from one neutral pitcher's park to another. Neither the Angels or the Mariners seem to have been able to put much together offensively the past couple of years.
Team Impact: This was a solid signing in Seattle, as the only guy who figured to be a stalwart in the M's rotation was Felix Hernandez. Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche have been horrible the past two seasons, while Jamie Moyer just seems to be holding on until they force him to retire.
Cardinals sign OF Juan Encarnacion and 2B Junior Spivey
Player Impact: You have to like both of their chances to improve as they'll enter a better hitter's park (presumably... we haven't seen Busch III in action yet) and have tremendous lineup support around them.
Team Impact: It's hard to argue with anything Walt Jocketty does, even if these are a couple of guys that are kind of under the radar. At the very least, you have to like the fact that they got a little more offensive upside with Spivey than they've had in the past couple of years with (similar under-the-radar pickups at 2B) Tony Womack and Mark Grudzielanek. Encarnacion is actually pretty much exactly the same player that they just lost in left field (Reggie Sanders), though he'll play over in right.
Dodgers sign IF Nomar Garciaparra
Player Impact: Nomar will make yet another position change this season, as he's slated to start at first base for the Dodgers. What was his best category (batting average) prior to the past two seasons isn't likely to improve as he moves to Dodger Stadium, but don't be surprised if he busts loose with twenty homers........................ if he can find a way to stay on the field.
Team Impact: With Nomar, J.D. Drew, and Jayson Werth on the roster, expect the Dodgers to be among the league leaders in games missed due to injury. When healthy, Nomar should provide a better all-around bat and probably a better glove than Hee-Seop Choi would.
Cubs sign OF Jacque Jones
Player Impact: The move from the Metrodome to Wrigley really shouldn't have much of an effect on Jones' numbers. He is, however, coming off of a slightly disappointing season, and is likely to bounce back with a better batting average (hit 30 points below it last year) while maintaining the slight spike in his power numbers that we've seen the past two years for the Twins.
Team Impact: Overall, Jones should be an improvement over Jeromy Burnitz in right field. He doesn't bring the same power to the table that Burnitz does (though Burnitz hit just 24 bombs last season in 600+ ABs), but he's a slightly better contact hitter who should put the ball in play a little more often. The most important upgrade he'll bring over Burnitz is his defense.
Padres sign C Mike Piazza
Player Impact: It's doubtful that Piazza could have made a worse decision for his fantasy value entering this season. Petco is horrible for power hitters and he'll remain behind the plate. While this is good because he'll still be eligible at catcher in 2007, it also means he'll continue to sit a lot more often than fantasy owners would like.
Team Impact: Though Piazza is arguably the top offensive catcher in the history of the game, his days of being a stud are behind him. The team would have been better served by re-signing Ramon Hernandez, and they may have even been just as well off with Doug Mirabelli (acquired in the Mark Loretta trade) starting behind the plate.
Mariners sign C Kenji Johjima
Player Impact: Johjima figures to have decent power from the catching position, as he belted about 25 a year in Japan. Obviously, he had no fantasy value in the past (well... in America, at least), but he figures to become an immediate fixture as a top ten catcher for the next two or three years.
Team Impact: He has to be a better option than Yorvit Torrealba behind the plate. Outside of Ramon Hernandez, the M's snagged the best catcher on the open market.
Twins sign 3B Tony Batista
Player Impact: Batista had absolutely no fantasy value in 2005, as he was playing in Japan. It would be a stretch to say he hit the lights out over there (.263 with 27 dingers), but he should get the majority of the starts in Minnesota. He has a thirty homer upside, but his average is likely to kill you.
Team Impact: While you'd think Minnesota would be better served to have a third baseman who could actually reach base every now and again, Batista adds pop to a lineup that hit just 134 homers last season. At the very least, he has to be a better option than Terry Tiffee or Luis Rodriguez.
Royals sign OF Reggie Sanders, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, and 1B Doug Mientkiewicz
Player Impact: Mientkiewicz has been a non-factor for a few years now, and nothing will change in Kansas City. Grudzy's biggest assets are his ability to get on base (nice OBP, solid .300 hitter) and score runs. He should still do one of those two things (reach base) with the Royals, but is worth nothing more than a late flyer. Sanders was a decent fourth outfielder with the Cardinals last season, but his injury potential and (lack of?) lineup support should drop him down a bit further in fantasy circles.
Team Impact: Life's probably hard enough if you're a Royals' fan, so I'll leave the Mientkiewicz/Grudzielanek thing alone. In the short-term, we shouldn't see much of an effect. In the long-term, however, it should allow them to actually (gasp) develop some of their prospects (like OF Billy Butler, 2B Donnie Murphy, and 1B Justin Huber) instead of forcing them onto the roster because they don't have any other options.... if only they could learn to do this with pitchers (they did sign Scott Elarton as well), maybe we would have actually seen Zack Greinke develop instead of falling flat on his face in his second season.
Diamondbacks sign OF Eric Byrnes
Player Impact: Byrnes struggled a bit with Colorado in his first stint in the National League (which didn't seem to last too long), but he should be able to rebound a bit in Arizona. While it's not quite the hitter's haven that Coors is, the BOB has played as a top five hitter's park over the past three years. If nothing else, the move should boost his power numbers a bit from his numbers with Oakland (prior to being traded twice last season) and the knowledge that he does figure in the Diamondbacks' plans for a couple of seasons should help him to stay focused at the plate.
Team Impact: Byrnes will help to bring back some of the edge of the scrappy "Babybacks" team from a couple of years ago. He goes all-out on every play, and will instantly become a fan favorite in Arizona. Most importantly, he'll bring a little veteran leadership and a winning attitude to a team that's lacked those characteristics the past couple of seasons.
Angels sign SP Jeff Weaver
Player Impact: Weaver moves from one pitcher's park to another this season, but figures to possibly be one of the very few pitchers who might benefit from a move to the American League. He'll have a stronger offense and defense behind him, will play in a park that suppresses home runs a bit more, and was successful (prior to the Yankee experiment) earlier in his career when he pitched in the AL.
Team Impact: The Halos staff has been riddled with injuries the past coulpe of seasons, so the durable Weaver should be a nice addition in the middle of the rotation. He'll eat up a ton of innings for the Angels, but it's worth noting that he has not been very successful in big games. With the Angels figuring to contend yet again, they may have been able to do a little better.
Marlins sign RP Joe Borowski
Player Impact: Borowski figures to be the favorite to win the closer's role out of spring training this season, and should see as much fantasy value as he's had in years.
Team Impact: All in all, in a season where the Fish sold off about 75% of their roster, this might have been one of the best moves they made. While they did pick up a solid closer of the future in Travis Bowyer in one of their offseason trades, Borowski figures to be a nice stopgap until Bowyer is ready to take over.
Nationals sign SP Ramon Ortiz
Player Impact: Ortiz could actually end up becoming a nice sleeper who's capable of being a decent fourth or fifth starter. It's a short-term deal which will put him right back on the market after the season, so there's some incentive here. Most importantly, however, Ortiz moves to one of the top fly-ball pitcher's parks in the history of the league.
Team Impact: Ortiz has really only put together one great season in his career, and he's already leaving his prime years. That said, he does bring a nice power arm to the rotation (something the Nats have lacked since they traded Javier Vazquez away a few years ago), along with the confidence of a player who has won in the past.... the Expos/Nationals franchise could use that as well.
Indians sign SP Jason Johnson
Player Impact: Though the park factor shouldn't have much of an effect on him at all, the Jake plays a little better for pitchers than Comerica. The biggest thing here is that Johnson will join a more established team that's ready to win now, so his win total should be on the rise a bit. He'll face virtually the same competition he faced last year, as he didn't change divisions.
Team Impact: Johnson brings a nice veteran fifth starter to the Tribe... nothing more.
Dodgers sign SP Brett Tomko
Player Impact: Many will view this as a great move for Tomko, who moves from SBC (considered a pitcher's park by most, but it hasn't played like one overall) to Dodger Stadium. I tend to disagree. Why? By his own admission, Tomko is a fly-ball pitcher (does anyone else remember his comment about how he will give up a lot of home runs a few years ago?). While SBC hasn't played like a pitcher's park, that's primarily because it plays well to batting average. It does still play horribly for power hitters not named Barry Bonds. Dodger Stadium is the exact opposite. It's always done a great job of suppressing batting average. The one area that it does play well to hitters, however, is in the power game. While you may hear that he might make a nice fifth starter because he should improve moving to a pitcher's park, his new park should actually hurt him.
Team Impact: There's no real impact here. The Dodgers picked up a veteran fifth starter who will chew up innings.
Astros sign OF Preston Wilson
Player Impact: Minute Maid plays nicely to right-handed power hitters, so that should work in his favor a bit. Wilson will join a slightly better offensive lineup in Houston than the one he had surrounding him in Washington last season, but the 'Stros are far from a top offensive squad.
Team Impact: Wilson was a nice addition with a little upside who will allow them to move Lance Berkman to first base. He's not going to get them back to the World Series, though Roger Clemens might if he's still out there in May.
Mariners sign OF/DH Carl Everett
Player Impact: Take Everett out of the Cell, and he's likely to drop off. Safeco will play well for him when he's batting left-handed, but he's likely lost all of his fantasy value at this point unless you're in an AL-Only league.
Team Impact: All that this really did for the M's was push Raul Ibanez back to left field and force (another offseason signing) Matt Lawton to the bench. Everett should add some depth, but isn't likely to be that big a factor.
Pirates sign OF Jeromy Burnitz and 3B Joe Randa
Player Impact: Minimal, though they'll both find a home starting in Pittsburgh. Pencil Burnitz in as a fourth outfielder and Randa in as a backup at third unless you're in an NL-Only league.
Team Impact: They could have done worse (and usually do). The Bucs are constantly turning over their roster with mediocre veteran talent that they hope will exceed expectations until their youngsters are ready. Randa and Burnitz fit the bill perfectly.
Devil Rays sign RP Shinji Mori
Player Impact: Mori will battle Chad Orvella (among others) for the Devil Rays closing job, but doesn't figure to win the role. He was an effective closer in Japan for the past few years.
Team Impact: Mori gives them a nice righty out of the bullpen who should be successful if he's forced into the closer's role. Japanese pitchers who come over here tend to fool hitters in their first couple of seasons (Hideo Nomo, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Shingo Takatsu, Akinori Otsuka, and Kazuhisa Ishii come to mind) before tailing off once the league figures them out. Expect similar results for Mori.
Fantasy Baseball 
As I understand it, Chris will not be participating in fantasy sports this year and probably won't have the time to contribute to the site much. I, for one, will miss his writings, as he kept me up to date with the part of the league that I focus a little less on each week and always brought a lot of fresh and exciting ideas to the table. I haven't really thought much about what I'll be doing with On Deck each week if I end up covering it as well as The Hook, but plan on coming up with a few of my own ideas and probably incorporating one or two of Chris' old staples. At the very least, you can expect me to be chiming in with a guest column on there a few times this season. Unfortunately, this week's guest column was really only what I was (originally) writing for The Hook, so we may be seeing that a day or two later than usual. I should have something new up (category watch? sleepers?) on my column in the next couple of days, but haven't started anything else as of yet.
As I understand it, Chris will not be participating in fantasy sports this year and probably won't have the time to contribute to the site much..
why not?
As I understand it, Chris will not be participating in fantasy sports this year and probably won't have the time to contribute to the site much..
why not?
I'm not sure it's my place to say, but Chris was really busy with work throughout last season and it's safe to assume that he'll be equally as busy this year. I still expect that he'll be an active member of the site, but it appears that he won't have enough time to write as he'd like.
As I understand it, Chris will not be participating in fantasy sports this year and probably won't have the time to contribute to the site much..
why not?
I'm not sure it's my place to say, but Chris was really busy with work throughout last season and it's safe to assume that he'll be equally as busy this year. I still expect that he'll be an active member of the site, but it appears that he won't have enough time to write as he'd like.
its a shame , but whatever
Let's Go Mets, I guess.
And keep in touch.
Take care and best of luck to you!
See you when we see you.
Peace be the journey!
TRD~