On-Deck

The Hype Machine

Guest Columnist: James Meyerriecks

We did this same segment on pitchers a few weeks ago in my column, The Hook, and I've been meaning to get to this for On Deck with one of Jeff's off weeks. As I don't want to wait until we're too late in the season, there's no time like the present.

If you want to build a contender in fantasy baseball, you can't just focus on grabbing the best of the top talent in the first few rounds. Instead, you need to be sure to pounce on some players who will be undervalued that can be picked up a little later. You'll find countless lists of players that fit this bill on just about any fantasy sports website or magazine that you check out. Over the years, the term that everyone has used to pick a player that's liable to overachieve in comparison to his draft status has been "sleeper."

Is that what these players really are, though? Like I said, you're going to go to fifteen different websites and scour their lists, and probably build your own based on what you're hearing. Chances are that at 80% of the websites and magazines you read are going to have several of the same players listed as potential breakout candidates. The growth of the internet and the boom in the fantasy sports industry has led to hundreds of sites that will talk up these sleepers. Simple numbers tell us that the more that you hear about these players, the less they're "sleepers", and the more they're being hyped by everyone and their mother.

Some of these players are going to turn into the next Adam Dunn or Hideki Matsui. If you're really lucky, one of them might turn into the next Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez. Be careful though; a handful of them will turn into Sean Burroughs or Josh Hamilton.

What we're here to do this week is to separate a few of this year's real next big things from the players who are being vastly overhyped. Some of these players do have incredibly bright futures, even if they won't live up to the hype in 2006. Others have factors that should point to them simply fading away into (well... some of ours, at least) memory. For this reason, we're going to add a "hype meter" next to all of their names.

The hype meter shall consist of the level of the hype (1-100), the level they're going to reach on that hype meter (likely value based on the hype... if the number exceeds the hype meter [which I'm not sure it will], they will outperform the hype surrounding them this season), and a career level based on the hype meter, built in much the same way as the 2006 version.

Catchers

Josh Willingham
Hype Meter: 70 2006 Chances: 65 Career Chances: 70

The biggest thing that Willingham has going for him is that he wasn't rushed to the majors, and has been in the Marlins' system since 2000. Willingham has worked his way to the big leagues, rather than simply getting called up because the Marlins didn't have a better option (kind of ironic considering what the Marlins big league squad looks like this season). At each level of the system, he's continued to hit better for both power and average, culminating with a .324/.455/.676 season in AAA that saw him hit 19 homers in just 219 at bats. He also has terrific plate discipline, and has a 142:149 strikeout to walk ratio in the minors over the past two seasons. The Marlins are committed to getting him on the field, whether it's behind the plate or in the outfield, on a daily basis. As long as he retains catcher eligibility, he could enjoy a nice run as a top five fantasy catcher.

First Basemen

Ryan Howard
Hype Meter: 95 2006 Chances: 70 Career Chances: 85

Howard has a lot to live up to after his performance in just 88 games last season, and the pressure will likely get to him. The player I like to compare him to the most is the next player on our list, which we'll get to in a few minutes. Howard has had troubles hitting lefties, which is where most of the critics go to attack him. I'll mention it (he hit .148 in 61 at bats against lefties last year... there), but it's not going to be my main point of attack. Here's my main point. Howard struck out in nearly a third of his at bats (113 K in 351 AB in '04 & '05) in his first two seasons. He has a long swing with a few holes in it, and pitchers will start to take better advantage of that as the season wears on. Unlike Adam Dunn, another player who crushes the ball and strikes out a lot, Howard lacks ideal plate discipline. Considering Dunn (even with amazing discipline) is a .249 lifetime hitter, I think you know where I'm going with this. Howard may hit thirty bombs, though I believe he'll end up more in the 25-27 range, but he's not likely to hit anywhere near the .288 that he did last season. He hasn't proven that he should be picked in the first seven rounds of drafts yet, but he was gone by the fifth in all of my mixed league drafts.

Justin Morneau
Hype Meter: 75 2006 Chances: 80 Career Chances: 85

Like I said, Howard is someone who I'd compare favorably with the next guy I'm going to talk about. Morneau's 2004 season (.271-19-58 in just 280 at bats) and Howard's 2005 (.288-22-63 in just 312 at bats) mirror each other nicely. Howard had an extra flare fall in, and hit three more homers in 32 more at bats. Morneau was someone that a lot of fantasy owners targeted a little later this season, as he's coming off of a disappointing .239-22-79 effort in his first chance to play in the big leagues for a full season. Morneau projected as a .280-.290 hitter over the course of his minor league career, and there's no reason that he shouldn't be able to get there this season. He's completely healthy, hitting with a little more support in the Twins' lineup (as pitiful as Rondell White is), and should see more to hit. His swing's not nearly as long as Howard's, but his plate discipline still needs improvement if he ever plans to join the elite. He should post a season that's more than worthy of the hype that he was getting in the preseason.

Conor Jackson
Hype Meter: 60 2006 Chances: 45 Career Chances: 70

Jackson isn't what you want for your fantasy team. He's a Mark Grace clone, who will hit well for average, but never figures to be a major power hitter. In real baseball, there's a big place for him, as he plays above average defense, hits well for average, and could develop into an ideal number two or three hitter who has fantastic plate discipline and always puts the bat on the ball. The simple fact of the matter for fantasy owners, though, is that first base is a power position. You're looking for someone who's going to hit around .290 with 30 homers here, rather than someone who's going to hit .310 with 20 homers. Jackson should develop into a slightly better power hitter down the line, but may top off in the 20-25 homer range. He's not bad as a back end starter down the line, but Tony Clark's presence ruins his fantasy value for this season.

Second Base

Chase Utley
Hype Machine: 100 2006 Chances: 90 Career Chances: 95

Unlike Howard, who I'm simply not high on for this season at all, I feel that Utley may already be the top player at his position (though Alfonso Soriano continues to look like he has something to say about that). He has everything you could possibly want in a fantasy player. Good speed, good average hitting skills, and great power at a thin position. If you wanted Utley, it's likely that you had to reach to grab him in the second or third round. The league will adjust to him a bit this season, which means he shouldn't outproduce last season's numbers by much (if at all), but considering he's a second baseman, the number s that he produced last season (.291-28-105 with 16 steals) were worthy of a third or fourth round selection if he can repeat them. He strikes out a bit too much for my liking, but is nowhere near as hideous as his teammate (Howard) in that area, and his plate discipline is solid.

Josh Barfield
Hype Meter: 55 2006 Chances: 65 Career Chances: 80

Barfield projects as a nice five-tool talent who didn't quite get the hype this preseason because he hadn't officially been given the job at second base in San Diego yet. He'll develop that speed at the big league level this season (six steals already), but his power may take a little longer. He has hit for good power in the minors over his career, hitting 71 homers from 2002-2005. However, he hasn't faced a park like Petco in his professional career, which will knock down a few of those homers and turn them into long outs. Combine his home park with the fact that he's facing more difficult pitchers than he faced in AAA when he hit fifteen dingers last season, and I might be pushing the envelope if I projected he'll reach double digit homers in 2006. Look for him to hit plenty of doubles this season, which should project to future success, and look for him to steal close to thirty bases, as the Padres' best chance to succeed is to be aggressive on the basepaths.

Rickie Weeks
Hype Meter: 85 2006 Chances: 75 Career Chances: 85

Weeks showed us some of what he could do in the power and speed department last season, as he hit thirteen homers and stole fifteen bases despite only getting into 96 games at the big league level. He also showed us that he still has a long way to go as a big league hitter, batting just .239. Over a full season, Weeks would have struck out over 170 times last season, which is the first thing that he needs to correct. In Weeks' case (as someone who projects as a possible leadoff man or number two hitter in his peak years), it's more important that he work on the plate discipline than it would be for a Howard or a Morneau. He hasn't so far this season (18 K in 53 AB), and it's a safe bet that Butch Wynegar is going to figure this out sooner or later. He's not going to have a .429 BIPA (his current average on balls in play) forever. If Weeks can address this need, he'll be more than worth the relatively early gamble that you took on him. If not, you probably would have been better off waiting and grabbing someone like Placido Polanco or Ronnie Belliard a lot later in the draft. His power and speed are great, but not if they're killing your batting average.

Ian Kinsler
Hype Meter: 45 2006 Chances: 60 Career Chances: 75

The primary hype surrounding Kinsler was based around his lineup, though his batting average (2004) and power/speed combo (2005) in the minors definitely pointed to some quality future success no matter what lineup he was playing in. His opportunity to live up to the hype immediately took a major hit when he injured his thumb stealing third base in a game last week, but he could still easily outperform both Weeks and Barfield, given that he comes back quickly. Kinsler projects as a future .300 hitter with 25/20 potential, a ceiling which he should reach by 2008.

Third Basemen

David Wright
Hype Meter: 100 2006 Chances: 95 Career Chances: 95

By all means, Wright reeks of being a future MVP candidate. Mets fans will tell you he's there now (particularly here at FIC), which I'm not quite so sure is a step I'm ready to take (so long as Albert Pujols still lives!), but he's definitely not far off. Wright is the player that Phillies' fans will want to turn to if and when they try and refute my attacks on Ryan Howard, as he took what we'd project over a full season in 2004 and posted pretty much those exact numbers in 2005. He's already developed into a consistent .300 hitter with great power and good speed, while he's a terrific glove man at the hot corner (don't let those three errors against the Braves the other night fool you). While I'm on a strikeout rampage, I will mention that this is the one part of his game that he needs to cut out (113 in 575 ABs in 2005), but he counters that problem with terrific plate discipline (72 BB's) despite his age and major league service time. Wright figures to improve on his 27 homers in the future, as his 70 total extra base hits (42 doubles) are usually a good indicator of future success in the home run department.

Ryan Zimmerman
Hype Meter: 75 2006 Chances: 75 Career Chances: 95

The scary part about how good David Wright is already is that Zimmerman may actually surpass him in the next four or five seasons. As good as Wright is with the glove (and as good as Mets' fans will have you believe he is), Zimmerman should be the man winning the majority of the gold gloves at the hot corner in the National League by 2008. RFK will likely hold his offensive production back a bit in 2006 and 2007, though he will eventually turn into a legitimate .300-35-110 guy and become Washington's franchise player. As for his 2006 outlook, he may win the NL Rookie of the Year, but that doesn't necessarily make him anything more than a back-end starter in mixed leagues. Expect him to top off at 20 homers with a .280 average in 2006, though those numbers may actually be shooting a little high. Along with Wright and Ian Stewart, Zimmerman could be leading us into a golden age for National League third basemen in the next decade.

Chad Tracy
Hype Meter: 80 2006 Chances: 80 Career Chances: 80

Tracy may be coming off a career year. He hit 27 homers in 2005 despite having to fight Tony Clark off for playing time (he found a lot of time in the outfield, as well) at first base. Now that he's back at his original position, Tracy figures to become a fantasy fixture. The problem with this? Based on Tracy's minor league success, he projected as a potential future batting champ with 20 homer power. Chase Field does help him a bit here, and I can see him sustaining his home run numbers in the 25-30 range for five to ten years, but I don't ever see him moving much beyond the thirty homer mark. Regardless, if you drafted him expecting him to repeat last year's numbers, you won't be disappointed... particularly considering he's now back at a thinner position. If there's one thing to Tracy's success from last season, it's a glimmer of hope that Conor Jackson could have similar success in that park.

Shortstops

Clint Barmes
Hype Meter: 70 2006 Chances: 70 Career Chances: 75

The frustrating thing about Barmes is that, at 27, he's probably already reached his ceiling. I can live with that, though. He hit 10 homers in 81 games before breaking his collarbone carrying groceries up the steps last season. In a system built predominantly on bringing mediocre hitting talent to the majors and watching them bash the ball even if they aren't that great because of Coors Field, Barmes is one of the few above average offensive players that they've called up in recent years. Above average, however, does not mean good. In any other home park, Barmes would be a decent .270-15-65 guy, which is about the average for a big league shortstop. In Coors, he could build a bit on last year's success to have a .290-25-95 season. As long as he stays a Rockie, Barmes has a nice future ahead of him.

Outfielders

Grady Sizemore
Hype Meter: 100 2006 Chances: 90 Career Chances: 95

I hate the term "can't-miss" (especially with Sizemore... curse you, Omar Minaya!), but tend to use it when referring to Sizemore. He's still a bit raw, and struck out 132 times in 640 at bats last season. This also extended to his base-stealing ability, as he was caught ten times in thirty-two attempts. He didn't quite take enough time to refine a few of these things in the minors, and is learning a bit at the big league level. On the positive side, he's showing one heck of a learning curve in all other areas. He hit 37 doubles in his first full season to go with his 22 homers, posting superior numbers to anything that he's done in the minor leagues. Expect that market to correct a little bit, but he's well on his way to becoming that 30/30 outfielder that fantasy owners drool about. His BIPA over his first two seasons (.358) indicates that he could project as a future batting champ given that he gets his strikeouts under control. His power numbers will likely tail off a bit this season, while his batting average, contact rate, and stolen base percentage should be on the rise. Expect a slight downturn overall in 2006, with a monster MVP run in 2007.

Jeremy Hermida
Hype Meter: 85 2006 Chances: 70 Career Chances: 95

It may be interesting to revisit Hermida in the future after we've had a chance to watch him play in the bigs for a couple of seasons. His overall minor league performance indicates that he should be better than Sizemore down the line, and that he may one day be the top five-tool outfielder in all of baseball. He has legitimate 30/30 potential, and amazing command of the zone (89:111 K:BB ratio in AA in 2005) at such a young age. He still tends to swing and miss a bit too often (those 89 K's were in just 386 ABs in AA), but this is something that he figures to improve upon with a couple of years experience. He has a phenomenal mix of power, speed, and plate discipline, and there's almost no question this will translate into a tremendous big league career. As for this season, the Marlins may be asking a bit too much of him too early in his career, as he's going to have to hit in a run producing spot all season long because they sold the farm in the offseason.

Curtis Granderson
Hype Meter: 70 2006 Chances: 65 Career Chances: 85

Granderson doesn't compare favorably with either Sizemore or Hermida, but they're players that are in a pretty elite class. He fits more into Sizemore's class, as his biggest advantage is his speed and his biggest downfall is his plate discipline/contact rate. Granderson figures to be a potential 20/30 player down the line, with a little more potential upside in the homer department. Unlike Sizemore and Hermida, he doesn't project as anyone who's going to blow you away with his batting average. Granderson struck out 174 times in 613 at bats last season, and needs to get this under control if he's ever going to be anything more than a third fantasy outfielder in mixed leagues.

Jason Kubel
Hype Meter: 65 2006 Chances: 70 Career Chances: 85

We were probably as guilty of hyping Kubel as anyone in the industry, as I even went so far as to compare his ascent to the Twins' roster to start the year with Albert Pujols' ascent to the Cardinal roster (he started the year with the big club because of Ruben Sierra's injury). Kubel certainly did have some factors working against him that Pujols didn't (i.e., a knee injury that cost him all of last season), but his pedigree is impeccable. He didn't hit well enough with the big club to stay up when Sierra returned from the disabled list, but is finding his form down in AAA Rochester (4-12 with 2 doubles and a steal), and will likely get the call back up to the majors by June (see White, Ron-DL). Kubel has a fantastic contact rate, good speed, good power, and phenomenal plate discipline. There are two things that knock his impact down a notch, however. The Twins outfield remains over-crowded, which will certainly hurt him this season. On a career level, the Twins have developed "can't-miss" prospects Michael Cuddyer, Michael Restovich, Bobby Kielty, and Justin Morneau in the past five seasons in the outfield. If you don't know where that's going, this article isn't going to help you. In short, the Twins have a slightly better history of their outfield prospects producing than the Royals do of... well... any prospects producing at the big league level.

Jeff Francoeur
Hype Meter: 85 2006 Chances: 75 Career Chances: 80

I hate to flat-out dog a player, so rather than comparing Francoeur to Shea Hillenbrand, I'll compare him to Alfonso Soriano. Astute fantasy owners and baseball fans will realize that I'm talking about a pair of players who seem to be allergic to walks. Francoeur has a similar problem with accepting walks, and has taken just 11 free trips to first in 286 plate appearances at the big league level. Is this really such a bad thing (Alfonso Soriano has arguably posted three of the top ten seasons ever for a second baseman, right?)? No. It does mean that he's not likely to be nearly as good as he could be with better pitch selection and recognition, though. Francoeur parlayed his aggression into a monster debut at the big league level, but it was top-heavy. He hit .413 in July, .312 in August, and .247 in September, watching his home run and RBI totals drop a bit over the final two months to go with his lower batting average. On the positive side, his aggression early in the count means that he doesn't strike out a whole lot, but it also means that his on-base percentage is going to be a problem over the long haul. He has great pop and decent speed, though he must correct his plate discipline issues if he's ever going to realize his potential.

Matt Murton
Hype Meter: 60 2006 Chances: 70 Career Chances: 80

Murton isn't quite at the level of most of these prospects, but he certainly has the track record of an outfielder who should succeed with at least four or five terrific fantasy seasons in the next decade. He has tremendous plate discipline for a young hitter (72:49 K:BB ratio in 487 ABs between AA, AAA, and the majors last season) to go with good pop in his bat (16 homers between those three levels) and decent speed (20 steals). He also tends to stay within himself, driving the ball to all fields, and figures to be a strong average hitter (.333 in '05 at all three levels combined). Assuming he sticks with his approach, Murton figures to evolve into a .300 hitter with 25/15 upside at the big league level in the next few years. He should fall a little short of that ceiling in 2006, but is a safe bet to improve in 2007 and 2008.

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