We're now over a third of the way through the 2006 MLB season, and some of you out there just have to be wondering what's up with those "stars" that you picked who are blatantly underachieving. Others of you who don't own some of these early-round mashers are probably thinking about whether or not you should buy low on an underachieving star yourselves. Can Richie Sexson start bashing (he hit two today!)? Will Aubrey Huff ever get his average above the Mendoza line? Can Aramis Ramirez turn it around, even without Derrek Lee?
The criteria is simple. In order to make our June All-Star list, the player must have at least one category that they are severely disappointing their owners in. This can be reflected by a poor batting average, a lack of power to this point, or disappointing stolen base totals. We're going to name one player per position as well as a designated hitter.
Without further adieu, I give you our June All-Stars.
Catcher: Victor Martinez 2006: .281-31-6-32-0
Career Avg.: .292-75-21.5-94-0
FIC Projection: .311-73-23-93-0
Martinez had a monster April, but absolutely destroyed his owners by batting just .165 with no home runs in May. That his average is still sitting at .281 to this point should give you an indication of just how good he was in April (.398-22-5-20). V-Mart is someone who is fresh in most fantasy owners minds, since he did almost the exact same thing last year that he has done this season.... without the hot April. He still rebounded to earn honors as the overwhelming number one fantasy catcher last season.
When did it start? V-Mart posted a strong .293-5-18 June before absolutely blowing up from July through September. In his brief career, Martinez has batted .313 in June, smashing seven homers in just 208 at bats. He tends to warm up with the weather, and his home run off of Francisco Rodriguez in Sunday night's loss should be an indicator of what's to come from Martinez the rest of the way.
First Base: Mark Teixeira 2006: .287-32-6-26-0
Career Avg.: .282-93-36-113-3
FIC Projection: .317-120-48-144-3
To be honest, Tex hasn't really disappointed that much with his batting average, and even his run scoring has been passable. Where are the homers and RBI, though? Beginning with April, let's take a quick look at Teixeira's career home run production.
Month
At Bats
Home Runs
RBI
April
295
13
41
May
370
16
59
June
306
22
62
July
307
23
61
August
329
16
61
September
307
22
76
What this should be telling us is that Tex is about to start clearing the fences a little more often. He should also start picking up more of the baserunners that are on in front of him, as he's batting just .250 with runners on (.289 career) and .286 with runners in scoring position (.313 career). June and September tend to be Tex's best career months in terms of both home runs and RBI, so expect him to start turning up the heat.
Second Base: Adam Kennedy 2006: .271-22-2-22-6
Career Avg.: .280-64-8-50-18
FIC Projection: .280-57-8-45-19
To be pretty blunt, Kennedy hasn't underachieved to this point, but it's worth noting that he's been phenomenal in June throughout his career and serviceable in July and August. In short, if you're having some second base issues, he's worth picking up at this point. Kennedy's major strength lies in his batting average, and that's the only category that he's disappointing in to this point (though he's not that disappointing). Kennedy's career June average is forty points over that of his career average, as he's hit .321 in 521 June at bats. Were he a power hitter, June would be a bit of a killer (just 5 home runs) and for some reason (note his injury-laden career) he doesn't seem to run nearly as often in June as he does in the season's other five months. However, his batting average alone is the primary reason to grab him. Since he's looking healthy, there's no reason to be concerned that he won't be aggressive on the basepaths this month.
Third Base: Aramis Ramirez 2006: .237-27-10-29-1
Career Avg.: .275-76-29-97-2
FIC Projection: .292-81-33-104-0
I think we all know where Aramis is drastically underachieving, and there's certainly some precedent for it. Below are Ramirez' monthly averages over the course of his career.
Month
AB
R
H
2B
HR
RBI
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
April
521
76
130
36
22
76
0.25
0.321
0.453
0.774
May
616
69
167
37
25
98
0.271
0.32
0.456
0.777
June
613
88
188
36
25
103
0.307
0.362
0.491
0.853
July
639
76
169
34
37
118
0.264
0.298
0.498
0.796
August
569
80
166
33
34
103
0.292
0.346
0.533
0.878
September
487
58
127
17
24
75
0.261
0.317
0.448
0.765
The most obvious note here is that his batting average in April and May is absolutely horrible compared to June and August. A slightly deeper look will tell you that (despite the downturn in his batting average from June to July) his slugging percentage has improved each month from April through August over his career and that he usually sees a big power spike in July.
Both 2004 and 2005 completely fit his profile, as Ramirez was decent in April and May before absolutely blowing away the competition in June. In June of 2004, Ramirez hit a gawdy .363/.407/.569 in June, while he followed it up with an even better .365/.419/.656 last year. The time to grab Ramirez may be passing, but if you can still get him, do so immediately... with or without Derrek Lee in the lineup.
Much like Adam Kennedy, we're certainly not talking about a star here. However, he's someone who's more than serviceable at a pretty thin position. Though he was actually absolutely horrid in June in 2005, this tends to be the month that springboards his season. Berroa has been below average throughout April and May in his first three big league seasons, but he's proven to be a useful lower tier fantasy shortstop from June through September in most any format. His career June average of .271 is just one point above his total career average. From July on, he's a .280 hitter with mid-range power and mid-range speed.
Outfield: Bobby Abreu
2006: .287-42-7-43-9
Career Avg.: .302-104-24-94-29
FIC Projection: .300-102-30-103-35
I know what you're thinking:
A) He's not underachieving
AND
B) It sure is easy to pick that five tool superstud.
Cut me some slack here. Abreu isn't exactly underachieving, though he's certainly not on the 30-30 pace that we've come to expect from him. He's on pace to both score and drive in 120 runs, which is phenomenal to this point, but his average is a little low to counter it. As for why we're going with Abreu here, it has been by far the best month in his career. Abreu's .327 batting average dwarfs his average in every month except for August (which it beats .327-.319). His stolen base production per at bat clearly benefits from this, as he successfully steals once every 18.5 at bats, as compared to over 20 in every other month except for September. His power production is shadowed only by his May numbers, as he homers once every 22 at bats, as compared to his career average of once every 25 at bats. Abreu is good in every month, but he doesn't have a single month where he's shown nearly the all-around production that he does in June.
Aubrey Huff 2006: .184-14-2-10-0
Career Avg.: .284-72-23-81-4
FIC Projection: .281-86-25-100-6
I'd have liked to put Huff at third, but Ramirez simply made too strong a case. As Huff qualifies at both first base and the outfield as well, we'll work him in here, rather than forcing him into the DH spot. Huff is the extreme case. He's usually a slow starter, but not this slow. Obviously, his injury trouble factors in here a bit, but it still doesn't excuse him batting .184 with 2 homers in 114 at bats.
Again, however, there's precedent. Huff's career average in April is just .234. In May, it's just .251. In no other month is it below .280. His slugging tends to improve from month to month throughout the year to go along with his batting average, though his real power numbers usually don't start surfacing until July. Lifetime, Huff is a .301/.357/.445 hitter in June, which means he's probably just about to get rolling.
Luis Gonzalez 2006: .272-40-5-28-0
Career Avg.: .285-81-21-83-8
FIC Projection: .266-85-19-81-2
Again, Gonzo hasn't been terrible. He's a borderline third outfielder, which is about what we'd expect from him at this point in the season (he was ranked 56th among outfielders in our draft kit, at least). Again, June just tends to be a month when Gonzo shines. June is the only month that Gonzalez is a .300 hitter in (.301, twelve points higher than July) and also boasts his best OBP (.377) and second best slugging percentage (.501). His RBI production in June has been off the charts compared to every other month, as he's driven in 249 in 1,410 at bats. What's more, the team around him is showing vast improvement, which should only help him to crank up those numbers a bit.
With respect to Sexson, I actually don't like him the rest of the way, which is as much a product of the lineup around him as it is my distrust of Sexson himself. The power production is coming around a little slower than usual this season, which isn't something I'm that concerned about. His batting average is fitting typically into his career numbers, though it's about forty points lower than it typically has been in April and May. Sexson is a career .244 hitter in April and .247 hitter in May, which certainly lends to the fact that he was batting just .205 entering play on June 1.
The fact of the matter is that he does typically pick up his average a bit (which is the one category where a guy like Sexson [or Adam Dunn] can kill you) starting in June. Sexson is a career .278 hitter from June 1 on, including a .276 lifetime hitter this month. His power numbers reflect the improvement in batting average, as it jumps incrementally from .479 in April to .555 in August. It drops off just a touch in September, but remains a very solid .539. Sexson has the potential to start bashing homers left and right, particularly now that the weather's warming up, and he's not a bad bet to trade for. I just hope the rest of that Mariner offense doesn't continue to shoot him in the foot.
Very good article Jim. I wish you could have done one for AL and one for NL but it was still very helpful. What about slow starting pitchers? any tips on who to buy low on?
I certainly hope some of these guys pick it up, namely Teixeira and A-Ram. Those two guys were 2 of my first 3 or 4 picks in as many leagues as I possibly could snag them in - which has contributed to a pretty disappointing showing in the majority of my leagues.
What gets me though is everytime I check the game scores Teixeira will be 2/4, or 3/5, etc, but will have 0 or 1 RBI. It seems that so far most of his hits have been coming when runners aren't on, and his worse at bats have been coming when runners are on. Eventually the two will balance out and he'll start getting more hits with runners on, and you can never doubt his power potential in that park and in that lineup. I'm more worried about A-Ram turning it on with that Lee-less and demoralized Cubbies team...
Very good article Jim. I wish you could have done one for AL and one for NL but it was still very helpful. What about slow starting pitchers? any tips on who to buy low on?
Well... not to foreshadow or anything................ I usually write my column (The Hook) on Wednesdays, which is dedicated to pitching. This column (On Deck) is dedicated to hitting, and I was just writing an article to help out.
Fantasy Baseball 
I certainly hope some of these guys pick it up, namely Teixeira and A-Ram. Those two guys were 2 of my first 3 or 4 picks in as many leagues as I possibly could snag them in - which has contributed to a pretty disappointing showing in the majority of my leagues.
What gets me though is everytime I check the game scores Teixeira will be 2/4, or 3/5, etc, but will have 0 or 1 RBI. It seems that so far most of his hits have been coming when runners aren't on, and his worse at bats have been coming when runners are on. Eventually the two will balance out and he'll start getting more hits with runners on, and you can never doubt his power potential in that park and in that lineup. I'm more worried about A-Ram turning it on with that Lee-less and demoralized Cubbies team...
Well... not to foreshadow or anything................ I usually write my column (The Hook) on Wednesdays, which is dedicated to pitching. This column (On Deck) is dedicated to hitting, and I was just writing an article to help out.