Third Baseman Rankings

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Tier I: David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez

Though Alex Rodriguez will miss a significant portion of the first half, we are talking about a guy who was often the top pick in fantasy leagues in recent years. Should he have been, though? Rodriguez brings production in all categories, including monster power numbers and (usually) a stolen base total that's well above average for the position. However, when David Wright beat him out for the top spot at third base, 2008 proved to be the second time in three seasons that Rodriguez wasn't even the top player at his position by our rankings (Garrett Atkins just edged him in 2006). Rodriguez obviously won't be going first in your fantasy league this season, but even a four months worth of his production is likely worth a third rounder.


That other New York third baseman didn't have quite the home run production of A-Rod, but he did hit ten points higher, score 11 more runs, and drive in 21 more. Considerably younger than Rodriguez, Wright would probably figure to be a better pick than A-Rod entering the 2009 season regardless of injury. Rodriguez' injury makes him a virtual lock to go in the top five overall in your draft. His stolen base production at the position is strong, while he has tremendous power, can hit for average, and great lineup support.


While his all-around game doesn't quite play with Rodriguez and Wright, Miguel Cabrera (in what figures to be his final season of eligibility at the position) may have the best power among third basemen. The concerns are his lack of stolen base production, as well as the fact that his batting average and runs scored have each dropped off quite a bit in the past two seasons. Still just 25 and in what should be a pretty dominant lineup, you have to expect that Miggy will start turning things around a bit in 2009.

Tier II: Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins


Atkins' inclusion in this group has a lot more to do with his performance in the two previous seasons than any other player on the entire list. Like Cabrera, Atkins has seen quite the (bizarre) dropoff since his monster 2006 campaign, losing 43 points off of his batting average and 102 points off of his OPS in that span. The strange thing about this is that Atkins is just 29, and should be flat in the middle of his peak years. While 2006 would figure to be a bit of an anomale, Atkins' 2007 production (.301/25/111 with 83 runs) is about what we should expect of him.

Chipper Jones won the NL batting title last season, and has hit .324 or better in each of the past three seasons. While his 22 homers last season were the least he'd hit since 2005 (only played 110 games that year), he still showed great power to all fields and amazing plate discipline. What keeps Chipper from being a Tier I third baseman, though, is his lack of durability. As Jones has aged, he's become a lot more susceptible to minor nagging injuries. After an eight year run of 155+ games early in his career, Chipper has managed 130+ starts in just one of the past four seasons. Other than that, go get him.

Aramis Ramirez is a lock for .290+, 25+ homers, and 100+ RBI every season. He does have the power to crank up the home run production a bit, but his consistency says that we don't necessarily need that to make him a legitimate top five third baseman from year to year. He's a very safe pick that shouldn't last beyond the first four or five rounds.

Tier III: Aubrey Huff, Adrian Beltre, Russell Martin, Mark DeRosa, Melvin Mora, Mike Lowell

We'll throw Martin and DeRosa in as qualifiers at third base, but they're considerably more valuable at Catcher (Martin) and second base (DeRosa), meaning that you probably won't be using them there.

Aubrey Huff isn't exactly the Mr. Consistency that we thought he was early in his career, but he is a safe bet to at least approach last year's career numbers in what figures to be a stacked Orioles' offense. The 30 homer power was for real last season, and he's always hit for average. Beltre may be more consistent, though his numbers last year weren't nearly on Huff's level. His batting average is just that... average. However, we can bank on 25 homers and about ten steals from him to make up for that. His Run and RBI production took a hit last season, though much of that had to do with the fact that the Mariners were pretty awful around him.

The other two Tier III options are pretty good bets to start their decline. Mora appeared to be in decline already before producing a massive rebound in 2008, batting .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBI. Expect those numbers to come down considerably, and take a gamble on a Tier IV guy rather than overpaying for Mora. Lowell's age and injury concerns had the Red Sox looking elsewhere this offseason before settling on keeping Kevin Youkilis at first and sticking with Lowell. When healthy last season, his average and OBP took significant hits, though he was on pace to boost his home run total, bashing 17 in 419 at bats.

Tier IV: Evan Longoria, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Gordon, , Mark Reynolds, Chone Figgins, Carlos Guillen

The first five members of this list are the group we're going to focus on. All five are 25 or younger with outstanding upside. Longoria is the player on this list that many of you would expect to see a bit higher. While I do agree that his power production was outstanding last season, his contact rate (and thus, batting average) need to improve a touch before he officially overtakes some of the guys up top for a higher spot on this list. Longoria's performance in the counting categories would seem a little off last season, but that would be partially due to the fact that he played in just 122 games.

Speaking of not having a full season under your belt, Chris Davis didn't miss a beat when he first got the call to the majors. He raked in the second half, batting .285 with 17 homers in just 295 at bats. Davis shouldn't be expected to keep that pace up in the power department in his first full season, but he will hit plenty of bombs. The average might come up a tick.

Encarnacion finally had that bust-out power season in 2008, but it came at a cost. After batting in the .280 range in each of the previous two seasons, Encarnacion struggled to a .251 average last season. He doesn't run, and his numbers in the counting categories (Runs/RBI) in the past don't really excite us that much. However, he's still just 26 with a little more power in his bat than we saw last year. The Reds are a pretty young offensive team around him that should only get better as they gain experience, which should help him with his Run and RBI production.



I always tend to link Alex Gordon and Ryan Zimmerman. It could be that one is the kid I've owned since he came up in a keeper league and the other is my favorite player.... but I digress. They're linked together because they were both huge college prospects who weren't in the minors for long. While Zimm has had a couple of pretty nice seasons, he hasn't shown a whole lot of progress since busting out as a rookie. Gordon simply hasn't put together a really good season yet. Both have the potential to do so, and both will in 2009... for different reasons.

Gordon is entering that third season when many players really bust out. More than that, though, he's coming off of a second half where he showed significant growth. Gordon didn't hit a ton of homers (5, though he hit the DL for a little while) in the second half, but he did dramatically improve his OBP (.392 in the second half) and slugging percentage (.496). Perhaps the most telling difference was his walk to strikeout ratio, though. After striking out 89 times against 39 walks in the first half, Gordon improved both his contact rate and batting eye bigtime in the second half. Gordon struck out just 31 times against 27 walks in 137 second half at bats.

The buzz with a lot of analysts this offseason surrounding Zimmerman is that he's overrated and injury-prone (yeah.... he's the one that's my favorite player). They're just dead wrong on at least one of those counts. While I'll admit that Zimmerman hasn't shown a lot of growth since his rookie season, a big part of the reason that he hasn't progressed may be that he was already the best (only good?) player on a pretty bad team. With some more solid veterans surrounding him, including the monster power bat of Adam Dunn, Zimmerman will have a lot less pressure on him to perform. As for the injury-prone comments, Zimmerman was riding a 350+ consecutive games played streak prior to his DL stint last season. The injury was a nagging shoulder problem on his non-throwing arm, and offseason surgery was done to correct it. Zimmerman even played through the injury for two months, which probably hurt his full-season numbers more than they helped them. He's busting loose with 25 homers, 100+ RBI, and a .285 average this season.... despite the fact that he's played three years in the majors, he's still only 24.

Simply put, Mark Reynolds is Adam Dunn Lite. He struck out 204 times last season, and yes... he hurt your batting average. His plate discipline isn't nearly as advanced as a guy like Dunn, and his power is a little short of the elite players at the position. However, he should be expected to hit the most home runs of this group with the possible exception of Longoria.

Figgins and Guillen bring different skill sets as the veterans of this group. Both will hit for a quality batting average. Guillen will produce a fair amount of power for the position and steal a handful of bases. Figgins won't hit for any power, but he's capable of carrying a fantasy team in stolen bases.

Tier V: Casey Blake, Ty Wigginton, Jorge Cantu

If you take any of these three guys, you're probably banking on them repeating surprisingly strong showings last season. Blake's a little past his prime, but was strong in Cleveland to start the year and finished with a huge power surge for the Dodgers, bashing ten homers after a deadline deal. Wigginton is an extremely consistent 20-25 homer man who will hit around .280. The concern here is that he's going to have to scrap for at bats a bit in a loaded Orioles' lineup. Cantu is as inconsistent as it gets, having disappeared for a couple of years after an outstanding full season debut in 2005. All three are going to go either as third basemen or utility options in your league, but they're all serious risks.

Sleepers: Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman

Super-Sleeper: Josh Fields

Busts: Melvin Mora, Jorge Cantu

Don't Forget About: Aubrey Huff

Don't Overpay: Chris Davis