SEASON PREVIEW - 4/1/02
April 01, 2002
2002 Boston Red Sox Season Preview
The Lineup
The Red Sox, true to form, will feature many different looks in their lineup. This is a testament to the versatility the team enjoys on its bench. The following is the lineup that will be most used during the course of the season.
1 – Rickey Henderson – DH/OF
Rickey brings speed, leadership, knowledge, and a little pop to this team. He will be worked into the lineup as much as possible. The Sox are hoping his declining averages of the past few seasons can be raised to the .280 range. His OBP of roughly .365 the past three seasons is better than what most Sox leadoff hitters have provided.
Prediction: .275; 10 HR; 40 RBI; 85 RS; 20 SB
2 – Johnny Damon – CF
Damon is the biggest Sox signing of the winter. He will be batting leadoff quite a bit, especially if Henderson goes into an extended slump. He represents a leadoff hitter in his prime and should rebound from last season’s sub par numbers. He is a notorious slow starter; so don’t be alarmed if he doesn’t light it up out of the gates. With the hitters behind him, Damon should score a ton of runs. Expect Damon’s steals to number in the 30-40 range. He has Henderson and Sox first base coach Tommy Harper to help him along. This will only help him, as Harper was an accomplished base stealer in his playing days. Also, Damon brings improved defense to CF, helping out his pitchers.
Prediction: .305; 15 HR; 75 RBI; 145 RS; 35 SB
3 – Nomar Garciaparra – SS
The questions about Nomar’s wrist injury went a long way to being answered this spring. He posted solid numbers and played almost every day, never complaining of discomfort. Can we expect a return to batting champion numbers? Definitely! This is the guy the Sox count on offensively, even more than Manny. Nomar also shores up the defense up the middle, which is among the best in baseball.
Prediction: .355; 25 HR; 120 RBI; 120 RS; 16 SB
4 – Manny Ramirez – LF
Manny may be the most productive hitter in the game, when he’s happy. The temperamental superstar is prone to sulking, but he’s also prone to hitting the hide off of baseballs. The addition of Grady Little as manager and Carlos Baerga to the team will only make Manny more productive (and happy). He actually hits better as a DH and may find his way there quite a bit this year. Last season’s slide after the All-Star break was attributed to the unstable atmosphere in the clubhouse. Now, the ship looks to have been righted and Manny will punish opposing pitchers. This guy may be the AL MVP.
Prediction: .325; 50 HR; 160 RBI; 100 RS; 3 SB
5 – Tony Clark – 1B
Perhaps the player that could transform the Sox from playoff outsider to World Series contender, Clark is a bit of a question. His health over the past few seasons has been poor. His back is the main problem, but he has had no recorded pain this spring. He also brings with him great leadership and character, something the Sox sorely needed after last year’s embarrassment. Clark was waived by Detroit and promptly snapped up by Boston. Detroit may look back and regret that. If Clark stays healthy, he can do some serious damage, especially at Fenway Park, where he is a .382 career hitter with a 1.088 OPS.
Prediction: .280; 35 HR; 105 RBI; 80 RS; 0 SB
6 – Trot Nixon – RF
Geoff Jenkins Light may be the best way to describe Nixon. He has a fire in his belly and is the consummate hustler. He is among the best right fielders defensively in the game. His struggles against left-handed pitchers are a bit of a concern and he may sit when facing some of the tougher ones. He had a breakout season last year, and he displayed an uncanny ability to hit in the clutch. His spot in the lineup, with the guys hitting in front of him, assures him of a great year.
Prediction: .290; 26 HR; 95 RBI; 65 RS; 12 SB
7 – Shea Hillenbrand – 3B
Hillenbrand is the guy who never walked last year. He needs to improve his strike zone judgment before he can take the next step. His 13/61 strikeout to walk ratio was among the worst in the game. He does provide solid defense at the hot corner, though, and he can hit for some power. There are no other options in the minors at third base other than Wilton Veras, so the Sox will have to rely on Hillenbrand. He may have some more growing pains, but he will be better than last year.
Prediction: .275; 18 HR; 60 RBI; 60 RS; 5 SB
8 – Jason Varitek – C
Pedro Martinez calls Varitek the key to the Red Sox’ success. It shows, with the pitching staff throwing for a 3.00 ERA with him and 4.65 without him. Also, he brings a leadership quality and a gritty resolve to the team. His broken elbow from year ago did bother him a bit early in the spring, but he has since gone on to catch with decreasing pain. It will be a slow process, as it hasn’t totally healed. Varitek will not catch everyday early on, and he may start slow with the bat. Regardless, he has the potential to be one of the better fantasy catchers available.
Prediction: .265; 20 HR; 60 RBI; 50 RS; 0 SB
9 – Rey Sanchez – 2B
Well, there’s not much to say about Sanchez at the plate, other than he provides no fantasy value. He will shore up the defense and the Sox will have enough offense to have Sanchez in the lineup. He can lay down a bunt and slap the ball around. He hit .281 last season, so he is an upgrade over Jose Offerman in that respect as well.
Prediction: .275; 1 HR; 30 RBI; 45 RS; 10 SB
The Bench
The Red Sox’ bench players may be more useful than most teams’, as they often find their way into the lineup for a good number of at bats.
C – Doug Mirabelli
Mirabelli will get some AB’s early on in the year with Varitek still nursing his elbow. He is a solid defensive catcher and threw out 34% of potential base stealers. Despite last year’s below average numbers, he did hit much better when he was traded to the Red Sox. He hit 9 homers in 141 AB’s with the Red Sox and hit .270. It is doubtful he has found his hitting stroke, however.
Prediction: .240; 5 HR; 20 RBI; 15 RS; 0 SB
1B/OF – Brian Daubach
“Dauber” played himself out of the lineup this spring. He had just signed a multi-million dollar contract and seemed primed to be a 1B/DH with Tony Clark. Unfortunately, he tanked in Spring Training and he became the odd man out. Trade rumors are swirling around him, so keep an eye on him.
Prediction: .270; 20 HR; 65 RBI; 50 RS; 0 SB – In Atlanta
2B/3B – Carlos Baerga
The feel good story of the spring, Baerga hit just well enough to stick with the club. Originally thought to push Hillenbrand for the third base job, the team seems committed to the younger guy and Baerga is looking at mostly pinch-hit duty. He may play some 2B with the punchless Sanchez there.
Prediction: .265; 5 HR; 25 RBI; 25 RS; 2 SB
2B/3B/SS/OF – Lou Merloni
The local kid broke camp with the team for the first time, which many Bostonians are happy with. This can most likely be attributed to Michael Coleman landing on the DL. Merloni can play all of the infield positions and some outfield, so he can spell Garciaparra at times. Merloni is the type of player that can provide some punch for a small period of time, but is not an everyday player.
Prediction: .280; 3 HR; 21 RBI; 15 RS; 5 SB
2B/1B/OF/DH – Jose Offerman
Surprised to see his name? Most people are. He will be featured in the lineup early on, but he will see his playing time taper off to nothing within a month. This guy is a non-factor on the club. He can’t play defense, can’t hit, can’t steal bases anymore, and provides no clubhouse presence. That all adds up to a ticket out of town.
Prediction: .240; 1 HR; 14 RBI; 10 RS; 0 SB
OF – Michael Coleman (DL)
“Primetime” is back with his second tour of duty with the Sox. A strained right hamstring put him on the 15 day disabled list. Check out this stat: He has one career walk versus 26 strikeouts in 67 career at bats. Not a paragon of patience you could say. He doesn’t figure to get a whole lot of playing time with Henderson in the mix, but he may provide a little pop and he is a good fielder.
Prediction: .240; 7 HR; 20 RBI; 15 RS; 1 SB
The Rotation
This is what will make or break the Sox in 2002. They upgraded their pitching from last season, but they still lack a proven number two starter. The battle for the number five spot is still raging and will spill over until April 10, the first time the Sox will need one.
#1 – Pedro Martinez
Pedro is the glue that holds the Sox together. If he gets hurt, the Sox likely will fall out of playoff contention. He still has some arm worries. His rotator cuff has been described anywhere from frayed to slightly torn. He has been on a strict pitch count all spring and that will continue into the season. The days of Pedro pitching 30 games may be gone, but he is still the best pitcher of his generation. He did get knocked around during the spring, but also showed he is the ace of this staff at other times. After allowing the bases to be loaded in his last start of the spring, Pedro whiffed the next three Reds to retire the side without a run scored. The way Pedro goes is the way the Sox go. He’s a risky pick as of now.
Prediction: 17-6; 2.15 ERA; 28 GS; 240 K; 0.90 WHIP (if healthy)
#2 – Derek Lowe
Has the job by default: Hermanson didn’t step up during the spring and Burkett is on the DL. That isn’t to say Lowe doesn’t deserve it. He pitched extremely well this spring and looks to have turned the corner as a starter. The former closer had numerous meltdowns last year and had his job taken away. He never could forget his last bad outing. Now, as a starter, it is even more important to have a short memory. In 1998, Lowe’s last go-round as a starter, he went 0-7 in 10 starts. Eventually he was moved to the bullpen to rescue his confidence. He only had two pitches at that time. He now has four as well as experience. This guy is a major sleeper.
Prediction: 14-8; 3.40 ERA; 32 GS; 180 K; 1.30 WHIP
#3 – John Burkett (DL)
Opening the season on the DL with a bout of tendonitis. He is slated to return by late April. He had a stellar ERA (3.04) last year and wins with control. The reintroduction to the American League will inflate his ERA this year, though. Looking at his ERA from the last four season before last year show what may happen this season: 4.89, 5.62, 5.68, 4.56. Don’t expect great things from Burkett this year, especially with pesky tendonitis in his right shoulder.
Prediction: 9-10; 4.60 ERA; 25 GS; 130 K; 1.40 WHIP
#4 – Dustin Hermanson
The emotional pitcher is durable and resilient. “Bulldog” averaged 31 starts over the past 5 seasons. He may flourish in Boston with the offensive support they provide. His previous stops in Montreal and St. Louis did not boast such a lineup. This guy could do big things for the Sox, but he has to learn to keep his emotions in check. He will be the rock the rotation will cling to if Pedro starts hurting.
Prediction: 16-10; 4.20 ERA; 32 GS; 140 K; 1.35 WHIP
#5 – Frank Castillo
Castillo is written in as the number five starter in very light pencil. Darren Oliver still isn’t out of the race. Either way, with Castillo’s injury history, Oliver will likely find his way here eventually. The two young guys looking for the last rotation spot may still get a chance. Juan Pena was sent to AAA Pawtucket and Casey Fossum is in the bullpen, but don’t forget about them. Castillo’s hold on this spot is tenuous at best.
Prediction: 7-6; 4.40 ERA; 20 GS; 70 K; 1.40 WHIP
The Bullpen
Probably the weakest link on this season’s team, questions abound to most of these guys’ effectiveness. If the Sox’ bullpen has a collapse, look for this team to flounder.
Ugueth Urbina – Closer
“Ugie” should rack up huge save totals with this team. He does have some elbow concerns, as he has had surgery twice in 2000 to remove bone chips. He has the ability to walk into a game and slam the door on opposing hitters. If you want saves, Urbina will provide.
Prediction: 3.00; 45 SV; 100 K; 1.20 WHIP
Rolando Arrojo – Spot Starter/Long Relief
Once a promising starter, Arrojo adjusted nicely to his role last season. He did a superb job filling in for Pedro after he was injured. He’s worth a look in AL-only leagues if you need a reliever. Also, if a Sox starter gets hurt, he may be moved to the rotation.
Prediction: 3.35; 6-4; 10 GS; 80 K; 1.25 WHIP
Willie Banks – Middle Relief
Can thank Burkett’s tendonitis for his chance. Banks is a journeyman reliever who will most likely be shipped to AAA when Burkett is healthy. Will not be a factor and your team has to be pretty bad to consider picking him up.
Prediction: 4.80; 1-1; 15 K; 1.50 WHIP
Casey Fossum – Lefty Middle Relief
Should warrant a look as a starter at some point. He was in contention for the fifth starter spot in Spring Training. His main problem is his lanky frame. Despite trying to fatten up and lift weights, he still doesn’t look much bigger. His durability in question, the Sox will build his stamina gradually by having him work out of the bullpen.
Prediction: 3.65; 8-6; 15 GS; 70 K; 1.35 WHIP
Rich Garces – Setup Man
“El Guapo” is the surest thing in the Sox bullpen. He will be the guy who gets most of the holds, if your league uses that category. He’ll also pick up some saves and wins. If there is one non-closer to get from the Sox’ pen, this guy is it. Garces is as consistent as they come.
Prediction: 3.20; 8-1; 60 K; 1.20 WHIP
Tim Wakefield – Long Relief
Wakefield calls himself “a victim of his own versatility”. He has had some gripes in the past, and some are legitimate. He feels that he should be a starter, and judging what the Sox have had starting for them in recent years, he may be right. But he has put that aside in the spirit of the team. Regardless, this guy is unpredictable, as most knuckleballers are. So much depends on conditions outside of his control; it would be wise to avoid Wakefield. Once an effective and successful starter, Wakefield will most likely get mop up duty.
Prediction: 4.50; 9-9; 12 GS; 120 K; 1.40 WHIP
Darren Oliver – Lefty Middle Relief
Oliver has not had a very good run in the big leagues recently. It is amazing he has been able to hold onto a starting gig as long as he has. The only reason he is on the Sox is because they had to get something back for Carl Everett. He has shown resurgence in Spring Training and has worked on his delivery. He is still in contention for the fifth starter spot.
Prediction: 4.20; 9-12; 17 GS; 120 K; 1.45 WHIP
What to expect:
The bottom line is that this team is hard to figure. Many things have to go right, especially in the pitching staff, for them to make it to the postseason. The main priority is keeping Pedro healthy to have any shot. This team should score a ton of runs, but their pitching will be suspect. With the weak division they play in, it will help them statistically as well as in the standings. The most to expect is a wild card berth, barring a major shakeup in New York.
