Red Sox Winter Report

Old Man Winter has hit The Hub with a vengeance so far. It seems like it snows every other day and I, for one, am pretty sick of it. As cold as it’s been here, it’s nothing compared to the chilly response the Red Sox have faced in their attempts to acquire Montreal's Bartolo Colon or Javier Vasquez. Fortunately, no other team is any closer to striking a deal with Les Expos.

The Montreal sweepstakes has been the biggest story so far, but there are many other tales to weave in this off-season. The team was very active, acquiring a new first baseman, second baseman, and retooling the entire bullpen. Also of note is the impending arrival of even more new faces in the coming weeks. Much is to be determined between now and when the team breaks camp in Ft. Myers, FL and heads home to Boston.

If the season were to begin today, here’s what the roster would likely resemble:

C – Jason Varitek
1B – Jeremy Giambi
2B – Todd Walker
3B – Shea Hillenbrand
SS – Nomar Garciaparra
LF – Manny Ramirez
CF – Johnny Damon
RF – Trot Nixon
DH - ?

Bench
Doug Mirabelli (C, 1B)
Damian Jackson (2B, SS, OF)
Lou Merloni (2B, 3B, SS)
Adrian Brown (OF)
Benny Agbayani (OF)
Julio Zuleta (1B)

SP – Pedro Martinez
SP – Derek Lowe
SP – John Burkett
SP – Tim Wakefield
SP – Casey Fossum

Bullpen
Ramiro Mendoza
Alan Embree
Bobby Howry
Mike Timlin
Chad Fox
Frank Castillo

There are quite a few new faces, so a proper introduction is in order.

First off, (pun intended) there’s new first baseman Jeremy Giambi. The less famous Giambi, 28, has been a platoon player over his career. The team will now give him a chance to start fulltime. His play in the field is in question, but the team’s new philosophy is less stringent on defense and more about getting on base. Should it become a major concern, the team could find a more suitable option within the organization. More on that in a bit. Giambi had some impressive numbers last season, albeit in part time play. His OPS was .919 last season. This number has steadily improved over the last three years. In 2000, he had an OPS of .761 and in 2001 he posted a .841 mark. Over that three-year span, Giambi has also increased his walk rate and home run frequency. His batting average was a mere .259, but that’s an overrated stat anyways. He may have only gotten a hit about 26% of his at bats, but he got on base 41% of the time with his .414 on base percentage. He finds a way to get on base, which is commendable.

Now, there are some negatives, of course. His demeanor in the clubhouse has been called into question. This could be a concern with the Red Sox, as they are sorely lacking a leadership presence within the team. The fact he was busted last season for possession of marijuana doesn’t make things sit any easier. The question of his temperament was raised on two very young teams last year; the A’s and the Phillies. The Red Sox are a veteran bunch, though, and the prospect of playing everyday could make these rumors subside. His defense is horrid, and despite what the Sox brass says, this has to be a concern. A misconception is that you can stick anyone at first base. How can this logic hold any weight? Aside from catchers, first basemen see the most activity in a baseball game, so why would you stick your worst fielder there? As written above, the team could find a better option should things get really bad, and move Giambi into the lineup as the fulltime designated hitter. It should be noted that he is going to report early to Spring Training this season to work on his play in the field.

When the team wanted to upgrade the offense, second base was at the top of their list. By trading for Todd Walker, the team accomplished just that. Limited somewhat defensively, Walker has become one of the better offensive second basemen in the game. His .785 OPS ranked him 8th among major league second basemen. He was also tied for 5th with 56
extra base hits. He’ll be 30 in May, but he is younger than Rey Sanchez, the team’s second baseman last season. He’s also a year removed from a 17 homer season in 2001, which also saw him put up an impressive .815 OPS with 75 RBI. Even if Walker produces 2002 numbers, it’s still a welcome upgrade over what Sanchez and a cast of others did there last season. Also, Walker isn't a complete stiff in the field. In fact, he led all National League second basemen in fielding percentage last season.

There are also a couple of new faces riding the pine, namely Damian Jackson and Adrian Brown. Jackson, a 29-year-old utility man, could serve some usefulness. The team had been looking to find a backup for Garciaparra and Jackson will fill that role, as well as play second and some outfield. He brings some speed, as he swiped 12 bases last year in limited action. He won’t be expected to produce much offensively, though. As for Brown, a 29-year-old outfielder, he was a Rule V pick from Pittsburgh. He’ll see most of his time backing up Johnny Damon, as the team was looking to find a cheap reserve player for that role.

Expected to compete for the first base job is minor league veteran Julio Zuleta. This is an intriguing player, as he seems to have some potential.
Last season at the Cubs AAA affiliate, Zuleta blasted 31 homers and drove in 104 RBI with a .912 OPS. He has been a fairly consistent performer over his minor league career, which raises the question as to why the Cubs didn’t promote him. Some of this has to do with their other first base prospect, Hee Seop Choi, grabbing the mantle as the future first baseman. But something had to cause that, and I think Zuleta’s plate patience is questionable. He has a good batting eye, but can it translate on the major
league level? At 28 years old, this could be Zuleta’s last chance to answer that question. The Red Sox had some success with a similar player a few years ago, Brian Daubach, so it isn’t out of the realm of possibility to see Zuleta in a Red Sox uniform when the team comes north.

Of course, if neither Giambi or Zuleta are deemed capable enough to handle the first base duties, there are some players still available that the Red Sox are
interested in. They were trying to acquire Marlins 1B/OF Kevin Millar before he developed a taste for sushi and headed to Japan. Now at the top of
their list is David Ortiz, late of the Minnesota Twins. Ortiz, 27, produced numbers similar to Brian Daubach last year. He hit 20 homers with 75
RBI. His OPS was .839 and he did manage to hit 32 doubles in only 412 at-bats. He is about as good as Giambi is in the field, however. He should come cheap in this off-season of thrift.

Normally the anonymous region of the ballpark, the bullpen will be extra mysterious this season. Fingered as the reason for the team’s disappointing 2002 campaign, the Red Sox went out and upgraded their bullpen. It now could rank near the top of the league with the talent they’ve stockpiled. The team, you will notice, lacks a true closer. This is a new approach to relief pitching the
team has. They want to have their better pitchers pitch earlier in the game, like the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings. They feel, and rightly so, that most ballgames are lost during that time. So, instead of having a dominant closer, they want dominant middlemen. Of course, someone will have to pick up saves, so expect them to be dispersed fairly evenly.

The most known name in the Boston pen will be Ramiro Mendoza. Mendoza, who will be 31 during the season, brings some much needed playoff polish with him from his days as the main middleman during the Yankees’ successful run of the 1990’s. He has experience starting ballgames as well as
closing them, but his strength lies as a middle reliever. He’s averaged eight wins a season for the past six years and has maintained a respectable ERA over that span from the low 4.00’s to the low 3.00’s.

The team brought back three pitchers that will compete for time in the bullpen. Bobby Howry, Alan Embree, and Frank Castillo are the holdovers from last year’s squad. Joining them will be Mike Timlin, Chad Fox, and Ryan Rupe. There are only so many slots, so expect two or three of these guys not to make the cut. Fox represents a high risk/high reward hope for the Sox. Plagued by arm troubles for much of his career, he has a good curve and fastball. He was tabbed by the Brewers to be their closer at the start of last season, but arm woes bit Fox again, cutting his season short. In 2001, he had 80 strikeouts in 66.2 innings and a 1.89 ERA, so there is something there. If he can just stay healthy, he could be a huge find. The other newcomer of note is Ryan Rupe. Mired in the baseball hell that is Tampa Bay, Rupe never had a chance to develop. He was a highly touted prospect, but playing for the Rays seemed to destroy
his confidence. He had an injury shortened 2002, but when he pitched, he wasn’t half bad. He went 5-10 with an obscene 5.60 ERA, but he was victimized
by his teammates. His surprisingly low 1.20 WHIP evidences this. Maybe he’s finally putting it together? Working in a better organization should do wonders for him and he could realize his potential in a Red Sox uniform.

The Red Sox are still pursuing other free agents at this point in time. If the team feels they have no chance of acquiring Bartolo Colon, they are going to
take a hard look at lefty Kenny Rogers. Rogers, 13-8 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.34 WHIP last year, currently is not budging from his contract demands of
$7 million. His price will have to drop significantly before the Sox approach him. Boston is also looking at Mr. Playoff, David Justice. Last year,
Justice put up a .266 average with 11 homers, 49 RBI, and a .786 OPS in an injury plagued campaign. Judging from his past few years, his skills are clearly on the decline, though. If the team acquired Justice, it would give them leverage to move Trot Nixon in a trade. A deal was nearly finalized with the Marlins a few months back that involved Brad Penny and Nixon, but was never completed.

The free agent expected to sign soon is third baseman Bill Mueller. Mueller, a great glove man, is not known for offensive prowess. He hit only 7 homers last season and had a .743 OPS, rather weak for a corner infielder. Anyways, his signing could be the catalyst that sparks a trade for either Colon or Vasquez. Unfortunately, it seems Mueller is reluctant to sign until the Sox make a trade with the Expos. Mueller’s concern is he won’t get enough playing time if Shea Hillenbrand is still with the team and a trade is not completed. The Red Sox want Mueller to sign to replace Hillenbrand, so it’s touch and go right now. It was reported Mueller agreed in principle to a 2 year, $4.5 million deal. Should he sign and the Red Sox don’t end up making a deal with Montreal for Colon, the plan is to try and move Hillenbrand to first base and have Giambi DH.

As it stands, both sides are not moving in the Colon/Vasquez talks. Boston still wants the Expos to take Hillenbrand and a lesser prospect while Montreal is
adamant they want Hillenbrand and young starter Casey Fossum. The Red Sox have said they will not trade Fossum in any deal under any circumstances. Fossum, along with John Burkett, is currently in an intense offseason-conditioning program. This is the same program that Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe participated in last off-season. Both won 20 games, though to expect that from Fossum and Burkett is a stretch. It should serve to help them, regardless.

The two other teams interested in the Expos' pitchers lately were the Marlins and Cincinnati Reds. After the Expos spurned a proposed three-way deal between those teams, Florida and Cincinnati both brought in starters and have given up the pursuit of Colon. Boston is now just going to wait out the Expos, as Major League Baseball is pressuring Montreal to start cutting payroll. Colon’s agent has indicated that the pitcher would be very open to signing a long-term deal should he be traded to the Red Sox. Sooner or later, Colon or Vasquez will be moved and Boston will be in the thick of the proceedings.

For his part, Shea Hillenbrand has been nothing short of classy throughout this whole situation. He called team management and indicated his strong desire to
stay with the team. He also said he would make any necessary adjustments to his game that the team felt he was lacking in. He just bought a house in the
Boston area last week, so it would be unfortunate to see him leave on a personal level. But, baseball is a business, so what has to happen will happen.

So, that’s it for now. Pitchers and catcher report to Ft. Myers in about a month and the team’s Grapefruit League opener is February 27th. I can smell the fresh cut grass already. Well, I would except for this damn cold. Comment's or questions? Email me at redsox@fantasyinfocentral.com or you can post in our Red Sox Fan Forum. Until next time, try and keep warm!