Spring Training Pitching Preview

In 2003, much of the pitching staff will already be decided. The starting staff, the best in the American League in 2002, looks more solid. The teams Achilles’ heel last season, the bullpen, got a major overhaul and are full of new faces. Last season was full of surprises, disappointment, and injuries. Hopefully, 2003 will be much more kind. Here’s the pitching staff heading into Spring Training:

Projected Rotation
Pedro Martinez
Derek Lowe
Tim Wakefield
Casey Fossum
John Burkett

Projected Bullpen
Alan Embree
Ramiro Mendoza
Chad Fox
Mike Timlin
Bobby Howry
Willie Banks

Other Names To Know:

Robert Person
Frank Castillo
Ryan Rupe
Bronson Arroyo
Brandon Lyon
Javier Lopez
Matt White

Barely missing the playoffs in 2002, the Red Sox still won 93 games. Much of the credit can go to the starting rotation for their performance. Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe finished second and third respectively in the Cy Young voting. John Burkett provided solid outings early in the year and Tim Wakefield provided them late. Youngster Casey Fossum was given an audition to start ballgames and did so well, he was one of the more sought after names this off-season. Overall, there will be little change from last year to this year. (Ages are of October 1, 2003).

Pedro Martinez – RHP (Age: 31)
Last season was probably the best Martinez has ever had. You may look at his stats and question that last remark. The fact is, Pedro pitched all season with a tear in his labrum (shoulder muscle) and he had to reinvent himself, all the while knowing that his arm could go at anytime. He turned in a typical Pedro season just the same with a 20-4 record. He also led the league in ERA (2.26), strikeouts (239), WHIP (0.92), and batting average against (.198). Coming into the spring, Pedro has recently made demands that the Red Sox pick up his option for 2004. The team has been lukewarm to these demands, knowing Pedro is an injury risk. This could serve as a motivational tool for Pedro to prove his doubters wrong. He was also robbed of the Cy Young last season and that had to gnaw at him during the off-season, as well as the BoSox missing the playoffs. With more careful use by manager Grady Little, Pedro should stay healthy for the 2004 season. Draft him early, as the reward greatly outweighs any risk.

Derek Lowe – RHP (Age: 30)
Talk about resiliency. Derek Lowe turned in perhaps the most unexpected season of any Red Sox starter is quite some time. After losing his job as a closer in 2001, Lowe asked for a chance to join the rotation. After all, Lowe began his career as a starter. It turns out it was the best move ever made by former manager Joe Kerrigan. Lowe turned in solid outings in the few he had at the close of 2001 and it carried into the 2002 season. Lowe finished third in the AL Cy Young race and finished with a 21-8 record, 2.58 ERA, and a 0.97 WHIP. He also threw a no-hitter and flirted with another in an amazing first half of the season. Lowe faded a bit down the stretch, but with a full year as a starter behind him, he should be ready for the long haul. One concern is the benign cancerous growth that was removed from Lowe’s nose this winter. He missed some time from his strength and conditioning routine, but he looks good so far. Don’t be scared away from drafting Lowe early, unless you see the scar left on his nose after the operation.

Tim Wakefield – RHP (Age: 37)
I was surprised to see Wakefield will be 37 at the end of this year. Don’t be alarmed, because as a knuckleballer, Wakefield should remain effective for many more seasons. In fact, the work Wakefield did in the bullpen probably bought him more time in his career. The soft-tosser had a great season in 2002, going 11-5 with the fourth best ERA (2.81), third best WHIP (1.05), and second best batting average against (.204) in the American League. The numbers got even better when he started. Wakefield had a 9-3 record with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. It’s hard to figure why he hasn’t remained a starter. From 1995 to 1998, he averaged just under 15 wins a year. He’s had some rough patches in the past, but overall Wakefield has been the most valuable pitcher on the team, doing whatever the team asks. This season, he will be asked to be the #3 starter. He’s entering the prime years for a knuckleball pitcher, so he should do well. He should go in the mid rounds of a draft.

Casey Fossum – LHP (Age: 25)
After rebuffing all sorts of trade proposals involving Fossum, the Red Sox are expecting big things from the youngster. He worked hard during the off-season to add more bulk to his lanky 165-pound frame. He said he added another 20 pounds, so hopefully it can translate into some stamina. He also underwent the same off-season routine that helped Derek Lowe last season. All the way through the Red Sox’ system, Fossum has been a starter. His highest amount of innings pitched came in 2000 at AA Trenton, when he had 149.1. He did reasonably well with a 9-10 record along with a 3.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 143 strikeouts. Last season, Fossum combined to throw 131.2 innings in Boston and AAA Pawtucket. He averaged just under a strikeout an inning. In 12 starts with the big club last year, Fossum was 3-3 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 101 strikeouts. Temper your expectations with Fossum, as it’s anyone’s guess what the increased workload of a regular rotation spot will do to him. He could provide win totals in the low teens along with a good number of strikeouts and a reasonably low ERA. Then again, Fossum could just as easily end up in the bullpen or AAA, so keep an eye on him and don’t buy into the hype. The Red Sox declined to trade Fossum this off season because of the complete lack of pitching prospects they have, not because Fossum was that good. See if you can grab him in the final rounds if you need pitching.

John Burkett – RHP (Age: 38)
One of the last players acquired by former General Manager Dan Duquette, Burkett showed his 2001 season was an anomaly. He returned to his old form in 2002 with his 4.53 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, but he did manage to put together a decent 13-8 record. His age may have caught up to him in the second half, as Burkett was a tale of two pitchers. He went 7-3 with a 3.80 ERA, but had an atrocious 1.45 WHIP. Mainly the beneficiary of good defense and timely offense before the All-Star break, Burkett’s second half reflected the team’s overall performance. He went 6-5 with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Currently, the #5 spot is less than certain, so Burkett may not be able to claim this title for very long. If you’re hard up for a starter at the end of a deep draft, take a flier on Burkett. Otherwise, look the other way.

Other names in the mix:

Robert Person – RHP (Age: 33)
The Red Sox signed Person to a minor league deal recently, and it looks to be a good signing. Aside from the financial benefits, Person could actually be the #5 guy coming out of Spring Training. Person battled injuries last season and it clearly showed. In 16 starts, Person went 4-5 with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. Control has never been a friend to Person, who averaged 87 walks a season from 1999 to 2001. In Person’s best year, 2001, he went 15-7 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He also struck out 183 hitters. If he can regain this form, it should be more than enough to supplant Burkett from the #5 spot in the rotation. Keep an eye on this battle.

Frank Castillo – RHP (Age: 34)
Last year was tough on Castillo. The numbers are blatantly obvious: 6-15, 5.07 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. Unfortunately, things got off to a very good start for the journeyman righty. He was only 3-5, but had a 3.94 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 2.9 strikeout to walk ratio in 10 starts spanning April and May. Things fell apart after that, as Castillo went 2-6 with 6.17 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and his strikeout to walk ratio declined to 1.8 in June and July. Needless to say, Castillo was yanked from the rotation and finished the season pitching out of the bullpen. He made three starts in September, but it was too late to salvage his season at that point. Castillo had a useful role in 2001, but he came crashing down to earth last season. That’s why he’s on the outside of the rotation looking in right now. I think the Red Sox have seen enough of Castillo to move on. You should to.

Ryan Rupe – RHP (Age: 28)
It seems like yesterday when the Devil Rays had the next phenom pitcher in Rupe. Unfortunately, they rushed him to the big leagues and ruined his career. While he could still compete for the back of the rotation this season, Rupe may find himself bullpen fodder. He had one stat that really stood out last season, his 1.20 WHIP. It looks rather odd next to his 5-10 record and 5.60 ERA. Aside from a pretty good .243 batting average against, he also had a decent OPS against of .734. So, why was his ERA so high? A couple of things stand out. Leadoff hitters had a .386 average and a 1.006 OPS vs. Rupe. That means he was letting the lead runner on very often, which is not a good way to start things off. Another stat that looks bad is how he pitched with runners in scoring position. He gave up a .308 average and a .851 OPS. With runners on first and second, the numbers jump to .438 average against and 1.188 OPS against. Same thing for runners on first and third and with the bases loaded. I’ll spare you the rest of the gory details. Needless to say, when Rupe got in a jam, he let the pressure get to him and he cracked. Maybe if he was allowed to mature properly through minor league seasoning, things may have been different. At any rate, look for Rupe to be in AAA when the season starts. He could snag a long relief gig in Beantown, also. If he can work out his issues, he may get into the back of the rotation at some point.

Bronson Arroyo – RHP (Age: 25)
A waiver wire pickup, Arroyo helps to solidify a rather weak minor league pitching corps. Realistically, Arroyo won’t compete for a rotation spot this season, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Last season with the Pirates’ AAA affiliate in Nashville, Arroyo put together a rather nice season. He went 8-6 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an impressive 4.1 strikeout to walk ratio. Control is Arroyo’s calling card, and as with any pitcher, control equals success. With the rather weak back end of the rotation the Pirates have, it’s hard to figure why they would let Arroyo walk. His major league numbers aren’t all that exciting, but Arroyo is still young and could be a steal for the Sox. He could get a late season call-up, but his ticket seems to be punched for AAA Pawtucket for right now.

With the American League’s best rotation, you have to wonder why the 2002 Red Sox didn’t make the playoffs. Well, Boston’s front office sure did, and the finger was pointed squarely at the bullpen. As a group, they combined for a 15-22 record, 4.25 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP. The Red Sox couldn’t hold a lead, and when they did, closer Ugueth Urbina was a crapshoot if the lead was two runs or less. So, instead of working with the guys they had, the Red Sox started from scratch. The only remaining relief pitcher left from Opening Day 2002 is Willie Banks, and he may not even make the 2003 roster. In one of the more drastic upheavals since Aerosmith replaced Joe Perry in the early 80’s, the 2003 Red Sox bullpen has the look and feel of a veteran presence.

Now, there’s one other teeny, weeny thing to note about this team; they won’t have a go to guy in the 9th inning. New Red Sox advisor Bill James (Yes, that Bill James) has his fingerprints all over this move. The logic behind it is really simple. I’ll give you a scenario. In the 7th inning with a one run lead, Alfonso Soriano gets a base hit off of Derek Lowe with no outs. Lowe is tired, but who do you bring in? You’ve got the best Yankee hitters up and you’re going to bring in a guy like Willie Banks to get them out? No, this is your best chance to protect your lead and the Yankees’ best chance to take the lead. You have to go with your best pitcher here, rather than wait around for a save situation that may never come. This is the premise for the Red Sox bullpen in 2003. This will put more pressure on manager Grady Little to get the right matchups. With the managing he has to do on the offensive side of things on top of this, we’ll have a very good idea what kind of manager Little is after the 2003 season.

Alan Embree – LHP (Age: 33)
Embree will be the lone lefty in the pen barring an upset with the starting rotation. Despite being a lefty, Embree shut down batters from both sides of the plate in 2002. He allowed a .244 average and a .677 OPS against righties and a .156 average and a .509 OPS against lefties. Overall, he was 4-6 with a 2.03 ERA, 18 holds, and a 1.08 WHIP. Rather alarming was Embree’s inability to close out ballgames. He saved both ends of a doubleheader shortly after coming over to the Red Sox in a mid-season trade, but other than that he was 0 for 5 in save chances. Another concern is the seasons before last for Embree. He hadn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since 1999 (3.38) and hasn’t had but two very good seasons aside from last season. Was 2002 an aberration or a sign of things to come? He will get save chances like most other Red Sox pitchers, but he will likely see less. This is because as the only lefty, the team may employ him earlier in the ballgame to get a tough out from the left side. Expect a good amount of holds, as well.

Ramiro Mendoza – RHP (Age: 31)
Perhaps the best reliever brought in during the off-season was Mendoza. He has post-season experience with the Yankees and knows how to pitch in tough situations. Mendoza is extremely consistent, keeping his ERA in the low 4.00’s and mid 3.00’s. Again, like Embree, Mendoza only closed out 4 of 8 save chances. He may see the majority of save opportunities, so this is something to keep in mind. In 2002, Mendoza went 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a 3.8 strikeout to walk ratio. If you draft any Red Sox pitcher with saves in mind, Mendoza should be your man. He won’t rack up astronomical totals, but he should approach 20. He’ll also get you in the neighborhood of 15 holds, so as a relief pitcher, Mendoza will be pretty valuable.

Chad Fox – RHP (Age: 33)
One of the more intriguing stories of the spring will be the performance of Chad Fox. Happy to get out of Milwaukee, Fox will be looking to put his arm woes in his past and start fresh in a Red Sox uniform. Last season was another injury-shortened campaign. When Fox has been healthy, he has been very good. His finest season came in 2001, when Fox went 5-2 with a 1.89 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 20 holds, and has 80 strikeouts in 66.2 innings. If he can capture that kind of magic in 2003, he will factor greatly into the closing mix. Will Fox be the nearly unhittable reliever from 2001 or the injury plagued pitcher we all know so well?

Mike Timlin – RHP (Age: 37)
Timlin comes to Boston as one of the better middle relievers of the past ten years. Last season was one of his best, fantasy-wise. He grabbed 20 holds to go with a 4-6 record, 2.98 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a 3.6 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s held and lost the closer role several times over his career, but the type of bullpen the Sox are using should suit Timlin’s strengths beautifully. In this role, Timlin should get about 10 to 15 saves and 15 to 20 holds. He’ll be another quality reliever that should be taken in leagues with holds.

Bobby Howry – RHP (Age: 30)
Last season, Howry came over in a deadline deal from the ChiSox and didn’t exactly impress. He went 3-5 overall with a 4.19 ERA, 15 holds, and a 1.28 WHIP. After coming to Boston, Howry was, well, awful. This was due in part to a minor injury that sidelined him for some time. He was 1-3 with the Red Sox with a 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a blown save. Now that he’s healthy and acclimated to Boston, Howry should turn over a new leaf. As the closer for the “other” Sox in 1999, Howry racked up 28 saves. He won’t come anywhere close to that for the Red Sox this year, but he’ll grab a handful. He’ll also get around 15 holds. He won’t be the most sought after reliever for the Red Sox in fantasy terms, but if you’re in a deep league and need a reliever, you could do worse than Howry.

Willie Banks – RHP (Age: 33)
Once a promising starting pitching prospect, Banks is now a solid middle reliever. He may not keep his job, though, as the Red Sox have other candidates for the bullpen that could prove more valuable because they can start. Banks has done little to lose his spot in the Red Sox’ pen, however. Last season, he went 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a save. He isn’t particularly interesting fantasy-wise, as he had no holds and just the one save. There will be better relievers out there to choose from.

Other names in the mix:

Brandon Lyon – RHP (Age: 24)
One more waiver wire steal for the Red Sox, Lyon was another victim of an impatient former ball club. Only 24, Lyon will most likely be in the minors at either AAA or AA. He had a meteoric rise from A ball in the New York Penn League in 2000 to Toronto in 2001. Lyon acquitted himself well, posting a 5-4 record, 4.29 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP in 11 starts. Denying Lyon the chance to fully develop in the low minors, the Blue Jays again abused him in 2002. This time, he wasn’t as resilient, as he was awful with the big club as well as for AAA Syracuse. Don’t you wish these guys could sue their clubs for abuse? Given the proper time to mature in the high minors, Lyon should be in Boston full time in 2004 or 2005. The young righty has gotten rave reviews from scouts and he could still grab the last bullpen spot if he shows he has put it all together this spring. Don’t expect much from him in 2003, but keep him on your radar for next year as a starting pitcher.

Javier Lopez – LHP (Age: 26)
Lopez was a Rule V pick by the Red Sox with the hope he could provide a decent lefty option for the bullpen. Last season, he mainly pitched at the AA level. At 25 years old, this isn’t a very encouraging sign. His stats were good, but he looks like an absolute long shot to make the club at this point.

Matt White – LHP (Age: 25)
Another Rule V pick, White hasn’t shown he can compete at the major league level. He’s a local guy (Windsor, MA) so maybe it will provide a little extra incentive to pitch for his hometown team. It probably won’t be enough, but if the Sox can manage to hold onto him, he could be a good southpaw reliever for next year. He definitely needs some seasoning in the minors before he can think about the big leagues.

So, that in a nutshell, is the 2003 Spring Training roster of pitchers. Most of the jobs are already decided, but like Joaquin Andujar said, “Youneverknow”. Injuries are a part of the game, so expect to see many of the guys on the outside eventually end up on the inside at some point. I hope this helped fantasy leaguers and Red Sox fans alike. Again, if you have any questions on the Red Sox, you can email me at redsox@fantasyinfocentral.com or you can post a question here or at the Red Sox Fan Forum. If you’d like to help out with Red Sox coverage, send me an email, as I’m looking for a local candidate to assist me.