Red Sox Correspondent Report: 2003 Season Preview

2003 Season Preview

March 30, 2003

It's that time of year when delusional Red Sox fans start making plans for late October and getting their World Series Championship parties together. Could this be the year? Who knows, but at least we don't live in Detroit. How's it feel to know the season's already over? Anyways, in what looks to be a failed attempt to find a replacement, I guess I'll still be doing this for a while. So, in the words of Paul McCartney, "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. If I were dead, I'd be the last to know."

The Red Sox camp was conspicuously quiet this year at Spring Training. There were no hamburger bun throwing incidents, no managerial upheavals, and no injuries. There is the issue of Pedro Martinez wanting a contract extension. He is saying he wants it before the regular season starts or he'll walk after his option year. Well, there's roughly 40 hours until Opening Day for the Red Sox at the time of this writing, so maybe Pedro shouldn't hold his breath. Otherwise, there have been no distractions and the players have meshed quite well.

The Starting Nine (and then some)

Opening Day Lineup

Damon - CF
Walker - 2B
Garciaparra - SS
Ramirez - LF
Millar - 1B
Hillenbrand - 3B
Giambi - DH
Nixon - RF
Varitek - C

Jason Varitek - C: Varitek enters the season again as the team's starting catcher. He is a year and a half removed from the elbow injury that ended his 2001 season. Some say his lack of production at the plate last year was due to his elbow not being 100%. There are few catchers in the game who handle a staff better than Varitek.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.195	3	2	4	15	0	-
2002 Season	.266	58	10	61	183	4	.724
2003 Prediction	.270	60	15	65	190	2	.740

Kevin Millar - 1B: It will be interesting, but Millar has been assured he will see 500 at bats. He can play first base, outfield, and has been working out at third base this spring. He's just an example of the interchangeable Red Sox. He's a very disciplined hitter who will thrive in the shadow of the Green Monster.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.305	8	4	11	33	1	-
2002 Season	.306	58	16	57	223	0	.875
2003 Prediction	.315	70	22	85	240	1	.850

Todd Walker - 2B: Lacking a true #2 hitter, the Red Sox have themselves a good one this year. With Walker and Damon setting the table for the heart of the order, expect many runs to be scored. A steady fielder, hopefully Walker's offensive abilities will finally squash any argument involving Rey Sanchez. It's getting old.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.351	5	0	8	26	0	-
2002 Season	.299	79	11	64	264	8	.785
2003 Prediction	.310	95	8	65	270	15	.800

Nomar Garciaparra - SS: I'm expecting big things for Nomar this season. His wrist injury from 2001 had to still be affecting him to some degree. Look for his power numbers to jump and his RBI to increase with the improved lineup. Never a patient hitter, Nomar has still hit over .370 when swinging at the first pitch. If it ain't broke.......

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.388	11	5	10	37	0	-
2002 Season	.310	101	24	120	335	5	.880
2003 Prediction	.340	100	30	125	345	8	.940

Shea Hillenbrand - 3B: A tumultuous offseason behind him, Hillenbrand opens the 2003 season as the team's third baseman. Constantly bashed for his lack of plate discipline, Hillenbrand has shown consistent improvement at the plate since his rookie season. He has been working at first base this spring and was the best defender there. He should see plenty of time at both corners.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.444	9	2	10	38	0	-
2002 Season	.293	94	18	83	291	4	.789
2003 Prediction	.280	85	20	80	275	5	.800

Manny Ramirez - LF: I'm calling it now. Manny will win the MVP award this year. He has imposed a self ban on talking with the media and the results showed this spring. Never comfortable with the press, he has removed them completely from the picture and is focused on baseball. Opposing pitchers, take cover.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.490	10	5	14	46	0	-
2002 Season	.349	84	33	107	282	0	1.097
2003 Prediction	.350	100	46	150	340	0	1.200

Johnny Damon - CF: Damon made an immediate difference last season after signing as a free agent. A knee injury slowed him considerably in the second half, but he looks fine now. He should enjoy another successful season as the team's leadoff hitter. Scoring 130 runs is not out of the question for this dependable veteran.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.283	8	2	3	22	5	-
2002 Season	.286	118	14	63	276	31	.799
2003 Prediction	.290	125	12	60	280	40	.780

Trot Nixon - RF: Despite his continued inability to hit left-handed pitching, Nixon turned in a solid performance in 2002. The only thing is, his 2001 campaign was better. Virtually all of his numbers were down except for his RBI totals. Expect newcomers Jeremy Giambi and Kevin Millar to eat into his playing time if he can't figure out lefties, though. This could be his last chance to maintain his everyday status.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.286	10	3	7	27	2	-
2002 Season	.256	81	24	94	250	4	.808
2003 Prediction	.265	70	18	65	250	2	.770

Jeremy Giambi - 1B, OF, DH: Giambi will be the starting DH for the season opener. After trying to work out at first base, it was evident that he just can't play the field. He will see time there, though. He should also spell Nixon in right and could eventually take the job away from him. Getting him at bats is going to be tricky, but the results should be well worth the hassle.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.196	6	2	3	17	0	-
2002 Season	.259	58	20	45	158	0	.919
2003 Prediction	.270	65	25	70	230	1	.870

David Ortiz - 1B: It's unclear how Ortiz will be worked into the lineup. He will see most time at DH. but he'll also get to play first base. He has some pop in his bat and the team likes his potential. He enjoyed a stellar spring and made his case for getting regular at bats.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.333	9	3	10	37	0	-
2002 Season	.272	52	20	75	206	1	.839
2003 Prediction	.260	45	18	65	200	0	.840

Bill Mueller - 3B, 2B: Signed for defensive purposes, Mueller has shown little fantasy value over his career. This season will be no different.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.182	6	0	2	9	0	-
2002 Season	.262	51	7	38	144	0	.743
2003 Prediction	.250	45	4	25	110	0	.700

Doug Mirabelli - C, 1B, DH: Mirabelli will see limited action as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher as well as backing up Jason Varitek. He should also see some time at first base and DH.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.200	3	1	7	15	0	-
2002 Season	.225	17	7	25	62	0	.723
2003 Prediction	.230	20	5	20	70	0	.700

Damian Jackson - IF/OF: Jackson will fill two important roles as a backup at shortstop and center field. He is a speedy player with little power.

	AVG	RS	HR	RBI	TB	SB	OPS
2003 Spring	.244	8	1	3	14	4	-
2002 Season	.257	31	1	25	88	12	.679
2003 Prediction	.245	35	0	20	90	15	.650

Kings of the Hill

Opening Day Rotation and Bullpen

P. Martinez
T. Wakefield
D. Lowe
C. Fossum
J. Burkett

R. Mendoza
A. Embree
M. Timlin
B. Howry
C. Fox
B. Lyon
S. Woodard

Pedro Martinez: What else can be said about the best pitcher in the American League? He's healthy and has a chip on his shoulder with the contract situation. Most likely, he's just looking to motivate himself rather than force management's hand. he could be skipped in the rotation a few times to save him for the end of the year.

	GS	W-L	ERA	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	5	1-3	3.00	18.0	0	26	0.83
2002 Season	30	20-4	2.26	199.1	40	239	0.92
2003 Prediction	30	22-5	2.15	200.0	30	265	0.90

Derek Lowe: Cinderella had nothing on Lowe last season. No one expected the results he produced from his 20 win campaign to his no-hitter. This year, it's reasonable to expect some dropoff. He still will be one of the better pitchers in the league.

	GS	W-L	ERA	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	6	1-0	5.85	20.0	8	12	1.45
2002 Season	32	21-8	2.58	219.2	48	127	0.97
2003 Prediction	34	17-10	2.95	220.0	54	140	1.10

Tim Wakefield: The longest tenured member of the team, Wakefield emerged as a force in the rotation at the end of 2002. He was given the number two spot in the rotation this year to contrast Martinez' blazing fastball. He is in the better years for a knuckleballer and should post good numbers. As a soft tosser, he could get beaten up occasionally, but don't let that scare you off.

	GS	W-L	ERA	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	4	2-0	1.38	13.0	1	10	0.92
2002 Season	15	11-5	2.81	163.1	51	134	1.05
2003 Prediction	30	15-11	4.20	220.0	70	140	1.30

Casey Fossum: There will be a lot of pressure on Fossum this season, as many fans were expecting Bartolo Colon in Beantown. It was the team's insistence on not dealing Fossum that killed that deal. He will be under a microscope all year and the pressure seemed to take it's toll this spring. He finished strong, so hopefully he can build on it.

	GS	W-L	ERA	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	5	1-3	12.12	16.1	4	16	1.89
2002 Season	12	5-4	3.46	106.2	30	101	1.34
2003 Prediction	25	10-8	4.45	160.0	50	130	1.35

John Burkett: It was a tale of two seasons for Burkett last year. His first half was outstanding, but things fell apart after the All-Star break. The wiley veteran may retire after this year, but he could still be one of the better fifth starters in the league.

	GS	W-L	ERA	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	6	3-0	4.71	21.0	1	13	1.19
2002 Season	29	13-8	4.53	173.0	50	124	1.44
2003 Prediction	25	11-9	4.60	150.0	40	100	1.50

Brandon Lyon: Originally a long shot to make the club, Lyon snagged the 12th slot on the pitching staff. This may have been done due to Fossum's disappointing spring. Lyon will provide long relief and spot start innings. He has good stuff, so he may get himself into the rotation sometime.

	GS	W-L	ERA	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	1	2-1	4.20	15.0	0	17	1.33
2002 Season	15	1-4	6.53	62.0	19	30	1.56
2003 Prediction	12	6-3	4.00	100.0	30	60	1.34

Robert Person: Person will start the year on the disabled list. He could provide a lift for the team as a starter or long reliever. He's still recovering from arm troubles, so the expectations have to be tempered a bit.

	GS	W-L	ERA	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	1	0-1	7.20	5.0	3	2	1.60
2002 Season	16	4-5	5.44	87.2	51	61	1.48
2003 Prediction	10	6-6	4.30	120.0	70	100	1.40

Ramiro Mendoza: A defector from the "Evil Empire", Mendoza brings playoff experience from his days as a Yankee. He's as solid as they come and will figure into the team's mix for saves. He can also spot start if needed.

	APP	W-L	ERA	SV	HLD	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	9	1-0	4.05	1	-	10	1.12
2002 Season	62	8-4	3.44	4	12	61	1.29
2003 Prediction	60	6-2	2.95	15	15	55	1.19

Alan Embree: As the only lefty in the bullpen, Embree will see much action. He will figure to get many saves, as long as he isn't needed earlier against a left-handed hitter. Last season was his best so far.

	APP	W-L	ERA	SV	HLD	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	9	0-1	2.00	1	-	5	1.33
2002 Season	68	4-6	2.03	2	18	81	1.08
2003 Prediction	66	3-5	3.15	18	20	70	1.21

Mike Timlin: A sure bet to provide quality relief, Timlin will have an expanded role with the ability to nab some save opportunities. He has some experience closing in the past. The Sox' bullpen setup could suit him perfectly, as he won't be relied on to close all the time.

	APP	W-L	ERA	SV	HLD	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	9	1-0	5.00	0	-	6	1.56
2002 Season	72	4-6	2.98	0	20	50	0.92
2003 Prediction	64	3-3	2.80	8	20	45	1.15

Bobby Howry: It has been heard that Howry's role is more of a setup man. He won't see as many save opportunities as previously thought. Still, he should garner a good amount of holds.

	APP	W-L	ERA	SV	HLD	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	8	0-0	3.38	0	-	5	1.12
2002 Season	67	3-5	4.19	0	15	45	1.28
2003 Prediction	70	5-6	3.67	6	23	50	1.31

Chad Fox: This is a guy who made people take notice this spring. It's been said that if the bullpen situation crashes, Fox could very well be the full time closer. He has an injury history, but he has looked very sharp so far.

	APP	W-L	ERA	SV	HLD	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	10	0-0	4.22	0	-	11	1.41
2002 Season	3	1-0	5.79	0	0	3	2.36
2003 Prediction	55	2-3	3.45	10	10	70	1.28

Steve Woodard: It will be anyone's guess what the Red Sox will get out of Woodard. His track record is very spotty and I don't believe he'll be on the team the whole season. When Robert Person gets healthy, he is a good bet to fill this spot. Woodard did have an excellent spring, so who knows?

	APP	W-L	ERA	SV	HLD	SO	WHIP
2003 Spring	6	0-0	1.32	0	-	10	0.80
2002 Season	14	0-0	6.62	0	0	14	1.58
2003 Prediction	15	1-3	5.00	0	0	20	1.70

That is your look at the 2003 Opening Day edition of the Boston Red Sox. If you have any comments, feel free to email me at redsox@fantasyinfocentral.com or you can post at our Red Sox Fan Forum on our message board. You can also leave comments/questions/suggestions below this story. Until next time, be happy you don't have to be a Brewers fan!