Red Sox - 6/10/03

Well, here we go. This is my first attempt at creating a team report for the Red Sox, so please, bear with me as I iron out the kinks in my writing style. For those who’d like to know my qualifications, I’m a Boston-based baseball fan who has lived in the Boston area for the past seven-plus years. I have seven fantasy baseball teams, including a 5x5 draft, a 5x5 auction, a 6x6 draft/keeper, a points-based keeper league that heavily favors IP’s, W’s, and K’s, a salary-cap league, and an 12x11 head-to-head weekly league with a playoff setting. I’ll try to pay specific attention to how Red Sox players are affected by all different league formats, as I realize that there’s a whole lot out of them out there.

F.I.C. Local Spin: For my first “local” spin, I’d like to regale you with a recent trip to the Green Monster for a Red Sox-Indians matchup. I had the pleasure of watching Derek Lowe toss a complete game gem against the woeful Tribe lineup. Even standing on top of the Green Monster (lie, kill, and steal to get these seats if you’re in the Boston area, trust me), I couldn’t help but see that Lowe had regained last year’s effectiveness. A sinkerballer who’s on his game is easy to spot – no one hits the ball hard, and very few pitches get out of the infield. In a complete game victory, I saw all of three balls hit hard. Most everything else was bouncing off of the bat into the dirt in front of the plate before being turned into an easy infield out. Even taking into account the fact that he was matched up against a totally ineffective Cleveland team, it was very impressive. Watching him carefully his next few starts, he appeared to be just as good. If you need a pitcher who’ll help ERA, WHIP, and Ws (and who doesn’t), I’d try to get Lowe and his current 4.66 ERA on the cheap. It won’t stay that high for long. Grab him!

Latest Team Info: Staying with the subject of the pitching staff, the recent trade for Byung-Hyun Kim highlighted the problems that the Red Sox are having with pitching. Out here in Boston, the fans have been griping, and rightfully so, about the state of the bullpen for the entire year. Between Mendoza, Timlin, Person, Lyon, and Almonte, there doesn’t appear to be anyone capable of consistently putting out a fire. In fact, you’d think that most of these guys were made out of gasoline.

With that well-documented issue, many expected Kim to come right in and assume the closer role, but injuries have instead forced the Sox to ask Kim to join the rotation. He looked good in his first start, going seven innings and giving up only one run, but he has gotten rocked coming out of the bullpen in-between starts. BK would clearly be more effective and valuable as the closer, and most would assume that he would acquire that role at some point in the near future. However, with Casey Fossum set to go onto the DL with shoulder tendinitis, Kim will likely stay in the rotation for the near future.

To further devalue Kim from a fantasy perspective, ESPN.com is now reporting that the Sox are looking to acquire another closer to allow Kim to remain in the rotation. Armando Benitez’s name has surfaced, as has familiar face Ugeuth Urbina. But given the lack of depth in the Red Sox farm system and their reluctance to trade away middle-infield prospect Freddy Sanchez, who was recently recalled from Triple-A, it may be hard for them to pull the trigger on a deal for one of those pitchers.

With that in mind, pseudo-closer Brandon Lyon retains his value, at least in the short term. With a 3.14 ERA, a 23/11 K-to-BB ratio, and six saves, Lyon might even be acquired cheaply from a fantasy team that is unaware of the situation. Beware, however, his 1.396 WHIP.

Focusing on the rotation, Pedro Martinez is due back on Wednesday against the Cardinals, but apparently the plan is to allow him to go no more than four innings, which negates any possibility of getting the ‘W’. Of course, he is Pedro, so if you’re in a daily league that has an innings rather than appearance limit, you’ll want to start him. The Sox will likely resist any temptation to push Pedro much past the aforementioned four innings, as they are notorious for babying their Uber-Ace.

Anyone watching the Sox gets a feeling that the pitching staff apparently warms up by jogging laps around a black cat farm. With multiple injuries and a 5.26 ERA (second highest in the AL), the Sox have been a fantasy pitching nightmare. John Burkett has been slightly less effective than a solar-powered flashlight for most of the season, and Fossum is on the DL. It’s possible that Ryan Rupe will be the pitcher called upon in the event that any more holes are punched in the rotation, but ex-Devil Rays that are wallowing in the minors generally aren’t considered hot commodities in the fantasy world. Bruce Chen needs to be put out to pasture in a hurry. Grady Little needs to re-enact the final scene from Old Yeller with Mr. Chen, pronto. If you’re reading this and have Bruce Chen on your fantasy team, I’d highly recommend dropping the airplane glue you’ve been sniffing, picking up another hobby, and forgetting about fantasy baseball.

There actually are a few bright spots to look at on the staff, however. As mentioned earlier, Derek Lowe appears to be resuming his dominant ways of 2002, where he nearly won the AL Cy Young award. After a see-saw start to the season where he was dominant at home and worthless on the road, he’s regained command of his sinkerball and has vowed to return to relying on it. He left after six innings Sunday, but he was pitching on three days rest and had a blister forming on his finger. The blister is not expected to affect him and he plans on making his next start on Thursday.

(Okay, time to ‘fess up: I’m not a Red Sox fan at heart. I cheer for them and follow them passionately, as I have been living in Boston for the last seven years. I’ve waited in line at 4 a.m. for tickets to some great games, and I’ve lived through every miserable late-summer collapse, but I’m actually not a huge fan. (Don’t worry, I’m not a Yankees fan, though.) Most of all, I’m definitely not a Derek Lowe fan, even after seeing his eye-popping performances last year. But after seeing that game and the next few, I can’t help but think that Lowe is for real. And I cannot stress enough that I am a charter member of the Derek Lowe Cynics Club.)

Tim Wakefield, another mainstay of the Red Sox rotation, left Friday’s game after being hit with a pitch on his ankle, but he is supposedly okay, even volunteering to come out of the bullpen on Sunday. He will make his start on Thursday. Wakefield’s ERA is currently at 5.35, not a very pretty sight. But if you’re hurting for Ks or are in a points league with Ks and Wins being highly valued, Wakefield and his 5-2 record might make a nice addition to your staff. He’s also quietly sitting in seventh place in the AL in strikeouts, with 65 in 69 innings pitched. With 32 walks, those are some decent ratios. Furthermore, don’t expect the ERAs of Pedro, Lowe, and Wakefield to stay where they currently are. They were 1, 2, and 4 in ERA last year, and it might be a good time to grab them.

To finish off the chaotic newsfront that is the Red Sox pitching staff, Dave Wallace has been hired as interim pitching coach, in place of absentee coach Tony Cloninger, who has been battling through an aggressive form of bladder cancer and has received five chemotherapy sessions. This should have a positive impact on the staff as well, as more hand-on work is needed with these pitchers. Sox Nation is excited about the addition of Wallace. From a fantasy perspective, at the very least it can’t hurt, can it? Well, when you consider that Dave Wallace was the Dodgers coach who thought that Pedro Martinez would be most effective as a middle reliever, there’s certainly some questions in the air. I wonder if there’s any lingering resentment over that situation? Pedro is a bit sensitive, and wears his emotions on his sleeves. I’ve got to admit, though - Pedro would shore up the bullpen.

Now, on to more cheerful news: the Red Sox lineup. They lead the majors in batting at .295, and a few of their players seem to be heating up. Manny seems primed to go on one of his tears where he carries the team for a few weeks. Acquiring him now might be a good idea. Nomar is hitting the ball with more authority – despite the fact that his hitting streak is done, he’s still knocking the cover off of the ball. Bill Mueller is hitting out of his mind still, second in the AL in batting with a .355 average. But he’s been amazingly consistent as well – the last time Mueller had more than one AB in a game and failed to garner a hit was April 24th. Heck, he’s had only 4 games all year where he’s had more than one AB and failed to register a hit. And with Hillenbrand now in the NL, Mueller will see regular playing time.

The person who stands to benefit most from Hillenbrand’s absence, however, is probably Kevin Millar. Millar knocked the snot out of the ball in April, only to disappear in May. Now, with regular playing time, Millar is hitting again, and he’s also corrected his hitting flaw – it seems that Millar was trying too hard to pull the ball once he got the Fenway Park and saw the Green Monster. Now, Millar claims that he’s just trying to hit the ball to center, which is more natural for him. Whatever it is he’s doing, it might be working – he was 12 for 31 with 5 HRs and 12 RBI on the Sox recent 12 game road trip. Hopefully, he can remember to stick with his natural swing when he returns to Feway. If you need cheap outfield help, you could do a lot worse than try to grab Millar from some unsuspecting owner.

Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek have also been hitting better recently, although Jeremy Giambi and David Ortiz are still mostly MIA. Todd Walker, an offseason pickup from the Cincinnati Reds, is hitting .315 with 44 runs and 33 RBIs, and is hitting mostly in the 2-hole, right in front of Nomar and Manny. Nice setup, eh? Call-up Freddy Sanchez is hitting .333 in the five games since he’s been in Boston, but with only six ABs, he’s not getting enough playing time justify using him in any league.

For those worried about Johnny Damon (who’s currently hitting .244, far below his career average), fear not – he’s traditionally a much better Post-All Star Game player. Last year this was not the case, but he played through a knee injury for most of the second half.

Rumor Mill: The Red Sox, like every other team under the sun, are reportedly interested in Chuck Finley. If he signs with the Sox, with the bats that he’ll have on his side, grab him. And if Finley signs, trade Lyon and go after Kim as quickly as possible. The domino effect there should be obvious to all.

As far as Urbina and Benitez go, I’d be shocked to see them be able to land one of those two. They just don’t have what the Mets and Rangers are looking for, which is young, cheap talent.

Injuries: Where to begin? Fossum has shoulder tendinitis, which is an immediate red flag in a young pitcher, Lowe has a blister that shouldn’t affect him much but is worth keeping an eye on, Pedro is coming off of the DL on Wednesday, and Wakefield’s ankle bruise should not change the date of his upcoming start. So the starting rotation appears to be a M.A.S.H. unit’s dream, but the lineup seems to be operating on all cylinders.

On the Farm: The Red Sox have no farm system. Sure, they have Youkilis, Sanchez (who’s now up with the BoSox), and a few others, but right now there’s not much. Heck, Ryan Rupe is their most likely call-up for the near future. I think that says volumes right there. Next week I’ll break down the Red Sox draft choices.

Quick View:

Add / Trade For: Lowe, Wakefield, Millar.
Drop: None, except Burkett and Chen if you have them for some ungodly reason.
Hold: Mueller, Lyon. Short term, he’s the closer.
Trade: Fossum, if you can get fair value in non-keeper leagues. Shoulder injuries give me the yips.

Thanks for tuning in, I’ll get these reports out at least once per week, hopefully closer to Sunday to help all of you out there who are planning your lineups for weekly leagues on Monday.

Mad Spoon