The Hook

We're going to post the opposite number to this week's column early next week, talking about some of the players who have gotten off to slow starts, and whether it's time to try and buy low. For now, though, let's examine some of the early season's hot starters and let you know whether it's time to milk them for all they're worth or hold onto them. We'll start with one of the most surprising starts for a double play tandem I can recall in Toronto. Together, these two players have sparked the league's best offense so far.

Marco Scutaro (2b, 3b, SS): .260/.400/.439, 5 HR, 31 Runs, 17 RBI, 2 SB - Simply put, you'd be a fool not to sell Scutaro at this point. His OBP is currently 71 points above his career average, and his slugging is 58 points over his career mark. The new-found patience is largely responsible for his OBP, as he's walked more than half as many times so far this season (29 in 152 PA) as he did last season (57 in 574 PA). That's a figure that seems extremely unlikely to sustain itself. As he's walking frequently, he's been on base for that guy behind him in the order (yeah... we'll be mentioning him, too) and is scoring a ton of runs. Don't expect the power surge to continue either. Scutaro's career high is 9 homers in 2005 (381 AB). While we can probably expect him to reach double digits for the first time in his career, it's unlikely he'll continue along his current 25-30 homer pace. Even at 33, it's safe to expect that Scutaro could well shatter his career bests in most areas. Still, his price is never going to be higher, and if you can get someone who you expect to produce near his current performance level, do so before he cools off. Sell

Aaron Hill (2b): .357/.400/.566, 8 HR, 25 Runs, 28 RBI, 2 SB - When Hill was coming up from the minors, there was a lot of talk that he might someday compete for a batting title. In other words, the strong performance as an average hitter is far from surprising. He's also shown a little bit of power in the past, hitting 17 dingers and 47 doubles just two years ago. We can't completely discount last season, but Hill had his fair share of injury troubles to hurt his overall numbers. Simply put, he's a very good hitter. He's not this good, though. His slugging percentage is currently 144 points higher than his career performance in the category (and 107 points higher than his breakout 2007 performance). His OBP is 56 points higher than his career OBP, and while he's a solid .290 hitter over his career, the .357 isn't going to last. There's every reason to believe that Hill could certainly have his first 20 homer season, but asking for 30+ would be a fool's errand. I'm 50/50 on selling him, as he's still likely to end the year with outstanding all-around production at second base, but he's still a candidate to have an extreme regression as the season wears on.

Ryan Zimmerman (3b): .339/.391/.554, 6 HR, 23 Runs, 21 RBI, 26 game hit streak - Zimmerman certainly isn't outperforming his expectations as significantly as Hill or Scutaro, but it's doubtful that even his staunchest supporter (which may well be me, actually) would have expected him to get out of the gate like this. The fact of the matter is that Zimmerman, throughout his career, has been a slow starter. Including this season, Zimmerman is a .251/.310/.402 lifetime hitter in April. After April, he's hit .295/.355/.486 hitter. He has surpassed even those post-April expectations so far, but there are a handful of other things to consider. The addition of Adam Dunn not only protects him in the lineup, but seems to have taken some of the pressure off of him to carry the lineup. The shoulder injury which significantly hindered his numbers last season appears to be behind him. Finally, he's got that long-term extension out of the way, which also seems to be making him look more comfortable. Toss in that his age (I know... he's been around for three full seasons and is established, but he's still just 24) indicates that he should be improving, and there's no reason to be moving him. He won't keep hitting .339, but there's no reason to think he can't break the .300 mark for the first time this season with 25+ homers and 100+ RBI. Hold

Adam Jones (OF): .342/.408/.586, 6 HR, 32 Runs, 21 RBI, 3 SB - Like Zimmerman, Jones has an advantage that neither Hill (27) nor Scutaro (33) share. He's just 23 years old, and should be showing dramatic improvements at this stage of his career. He also has a ton of lineup support, being surrounded by veteran bats like Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, and Melvin Mora in a stacked Baltimore lineup. The move to the second spot in the order may keep his RBI production at bay a bit (though Roberts will give him plenty of chances), but it will also protect him in the order and give him plenty of chances to score. Expect 110-120 runs out of Jones this season to go along with the first of many 20/20 seasons. There's no reason you should even consider shopping him. The Orioles' pitching staff is pretty rough, but that lineup is going to continue to produce. Hold

Torii Hunter (OF): .311/.371/.612, 8 HR, 24 Runs, 21 RBI, 2 SB - Hunter is a little different than most of the names on this list in that we have a much larger sample size to work from. Historically, April has been one of Hunter's best months. His .826 career April OPS is significantly better than his career .799 (it's actually his third best month historically, behind July and September, but he tends to go through a lull in May and June). It's reasonable to think that Hunter has thrived a bit because he's had to take more of a leadership role on the club with one of the big bats (Vladdy) and three of their better starters (Lackey, Santana, Escobar) out of the rotation. That said, his trade value is never going to be higher. He's a solid number two outfielder who currently looks like a strong number one. If you can trade him at number one value, do it. Sell

Adam Lind (OF): .333/.410/.569, 6 HR, 20 Runs, 29 RBI - Lind might be the most interesting guy we'll have on this list, because (much as most of the things I see will tell me you should sell) I'm going to say you should hold onto him. We've been waiting for a breakout from him for three years now, and I think we're finally seeing it. Lind boasts a career .888 OPS in the minors to go along with a .318 average. Many of his problems in the past couple of years have had to do with a lack of patience from the Blue Jays. Keep in mind that he's just 25, and the Jays found only 616 at bats from the former stud prospect in 2007 and 2008. Always a patient hitter in the minors, Lind struggled in his first two seasons, and part of that may have had to do with the old "pinch hitter" syndrome (though he was rarely used in that role... bear with me). As his playing time was sporadic, Lind often looked like he was up there hacking at pitches that he had no business swinging at because he felt like he had to make a big impression in every plate appearance. He's looked more comfortable with a regular role this season, and has already drawn as many walks (16) as he did in each of his first two seasons. He's still striking out a bit more often than we'd like to see (25 in 123 AB), but he's being more selective at the plate, aiding the increase in his batting average and power production. The BABIP is likely to come down, which means we can also expect that average to come down quite a bit with it. Still, he's a safe bet to finally bust out, and is worth holding onto unless you can get #2 OF value for him in a trade. Hold

Zack Greinke (SP): 6-1, 53 IP, 34 H, 8 BB, 59 K, 0.51 ERA, 0.79 WHIP - Is he the next Greg Maddux after all? Hardly. He throws a little too hard to be considered the next Greg Maddux. Greinke has been nothing short of fantastic so far, and he's going to continue to be one of the better pitchers in baseball. He obviously can't keep up the 0.51 ERA or 0.79 WHIP, but he's proven in the past couple of years that he's probably going to have a handful of 200+ strikeout seasons in him and keep that ERA and WHIP well above average. Both his stuff and his command are off the charts good, and his confidence has built each season. It's finally matching his talent level, and we're seeing the results. With this start, it wouldn't be going out on a limb too much to say that he could well finish the year with a sub-2.00 ERA. Even in suffering his first loss of the year on Saturday, Greinke pitched an eight-inning complete game in a 1-0 loss to the Angels. He's money, and as great as the return might be, you're unlikely to get value that will match him. Hold

Frank Francisco (RP): 1-0, 9 SV, 14.2 IP, 7 H, 4 BB, 13 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP - Does anyone else remember that incident with the fan in Oakland a few years ago? Francisco finally looks to be all the way back after losing 2005 and most of 2006 to surgery. He didn't look like the same pitcher two years ago, but certainly showed quite a few flashes of brilliance in 2008 as he re-established himself. I had him pegged as a sleeper source for saves a few years ago before he blew his arm out, and I'm less than surprised to see him finally solidifying the back of the Rangers' bullpen. That said, I'd certainly say you should trade him in a heartbeat if someone's willing to treat him like a front-line (or even strong second tier) closer in trade discussions. He'll finish the year with an ERA hovering around 3.00 and a WHIP in the 1.10 range... certainly not bad, but he won't keep this up. Sell

Wandy Rodriguez (SP): 3-2, 45 IP, 32 H, 15 BB, 37 K, 1.80 ERA, 1.04 WHIP - Wandy's certainly another interesting case, and one that I own in a league (where, ironically, I traded Jeff Francis for him in a long-term keeper league before the season started.... hey... he offered it!). Admittedly, when I think of Wandy Rodriguez, I still think of an average lefty who posted 5.53, 5.64, and 4.58 ERAs with mediocre strikeout rates in his first three full seasons. Why is he interesting, then? He turned the corner last year. Rodriguez
missed some time last season with injuries, but he was money when he was healthy, striking out 131 in 137 innings with a 3.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. It's clear that he's not going to finish the season with an ERA south of 3.00 or a WHIP south of 1.20, but there's no reason to think that he won't finish the year with 180 strikeouts, a strong ERA in the low-to-mid threes and a WHIP in the 1.25 range. Hold him unless you can get borderline ace value for him. Hold

A "Closer" Look

Ryan Franklin seems to have put last year's struggles in the ninth behind him and solidified the Cardinals' closing situation. Franklin is a perfect 9-for-9 in save opportunities this season, and has yet to allow an earned run with a 0.45 WHIP.... There's no resolution in Washington, where the club has pretty much emptied out the Syracuse (AAA) bullpen (apart from Tyler Clippard) and still turned up pretty much empty. The one guy who was supposed to help solidify things, Joe Beimel and take over the closing duties when he returned has pitched the eighth in each of the Nationals' past three games (all close wins). Kip Wells looked strong in pitching a 1-2-3 ninth in Friday's one run win over the Diamondbacks, but allowed a run before Joel Hanrahan came on for the final out of Saturday's 2-1 win. After Hanrahan recorded the final out Saturday, the Nationals have now converted five of thirteen save chances.... Pirates' closer Matt Capps has shut it down for the past week as he's battling irritation in his pitching elbow. It's shown in his recent outings, as he's allowed seven runs in his past three appearances. While the Bucs haven't gotten any save chances since he's been sidelined, the expectation is that John Grabow would get the opportunity should one arise.... Brandon Morrow was activated from the disabled list Saturday, and should immediately resume closing in Seattle.... There's no controversy in Oakland (yet). Brad Ziegler is battling the flu. Andrew Bailey has been awfully good so far (3-0, 1.27 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 24 K in 21.1 IP), though, and picked up a two-inning save Friday night.

Let's Play Two

The following is a list of all pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy week (5/11-5/17). All home games are in CAPS.

American League

Start of the Week

We'll take the ace of the bunch, Roy Halladay. Halladay has flat-out dominated the Yankees throughout his career (15-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 162 K in 207 IP) while pitching pretty well against the White Sox (4-4, 3.44 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 64 K in 83 IP). Both starts will come at home, where Halladay has always pitched better (3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP as compared to a 3.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP on the road) than he has on the road.

National League

Start of the Week

We're riding the hot hand (well... one of them!) here and going with Matt Cain. Cain has turned in a quality start in five of his six starts so far this season, with the lone exception being at home last week against the Rockies. He responded by taking his show on the road to Coors Field and one-hitting Colorado for six innings in a blowout win. He'll make both starts at home, where he boasts a lifetime ERA (3.42 as compared to 4.00 on the road) and WHIP (1.25 as compared to 1.31 on the road) that are considerably stronger than his road performances. Though he's struggled with the Mets in the past, he's annihilated the Nats.