The Hook

Trading Places

Welcome to "The Hook", where we'll be looking throughout the season at what's happened in the past week and what to expect in the next week on the pitcher's mound.

Be on the lookout in the next six weeks as we break down the staffs of every team, starting next week with the AL East!

Feel free to drop by as our correspondents will be hosting a two-hour chat session each Monday starting at 7 PM EST.

Preseason Schedule
1/9 - Trading Places
1/16 - AL East Breakdown
1/23 - NL East Breakdown
1/30 - AL Central Breakdown
2/7 - NL Central Breakdown
2/14 - AL West Breakdown
2/21 - NL West Breakdown
2/27 - Draft in Review - Rounds One Through Ten
3/6 - Draft in Review - Rounds Eleven Through Twenty
3/13 - Draft in Review - Rounds Twenty-One and Beyond/Sleepers
3/20 - Spring Training Report
3/27 - Prep for Opening Day

Trading Places

As the Hot Stove League starts to cool down and we approach that wonderful day when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, it's time to take a look at where some of the pitchers have gone during the typically busy offseason. While we won't necessarily be covering every move that's been made, most of the major players who have gone places will be covered, as well as a report on what to expect from the players who have found new homes.

Some clubs have strengthened their rotations, while others have bolstered their bullpen. And, of course, there was the occasional move that just made you scratch your head. Let's start out with the trades....

Trades

Kevin Millwood (Braves to Phillies) - The Braves all but gift-wrapped a number one starter to their division rivals after the Phils had already lost a bidding battle with the Mets for former Brave Tom Glavine’s services. By acquiring a young hurler who was the most dominant pitcher in the league over the last half of last season, the Phillies came out a dozen times better than they would have had they signed Glavine.
The Hook: Millwood is a bona fide fantasy ace, and will put forth solid strikeout numbers as well as solid secondary numbers, plus his 17-20 wins. He should be one of the top ten to fifteen starters taken in most fantasy drafts.

Damian Moss (Braves to Giants) - The 26-year-old Moss put forth a solid rookie season, but must work on his control to flourish for the Giants. He should have no trouble finding a spot in the Giants rotation, and should be able to cut his 4.11 ERA a bit if he can cut down on his four and a half walks per nine innings.
The Hook: Until he learns to limit those walks, he’s no better than a #3 starter. He should improve in his second full season in the bigs.

Russ Ortiz (Giants to Braves) - It’s been talked to death with Dodgers hurlers, so why not extend it to Giants pitchers as well. Ortiz will be leaving the most pitcher-friendly park in the National League and taking his act to Turner Field, which is more of a neutral park. While Ortiz has established himself as one of the top twenty starters in the National League in the past two seasons, his splits outside of Pac Bell have not been nearly as friendly as they have at home. Over the last two seasons, Ortiz has yielded a 4.34 ERA and 24 dingers on the road, as opposed to a 3.01 ERA and just 4 dingers at home.
The Hook: Look for him to struggle in Turner Field this year, and knock him down a bit on your draft board. Most people considered him a weak #1 or strong #2 last season, but he looks like an average #3 in Atlanta.

Billy Koch (A’s to White Sox) - Koch remains one of the more durable closers in the league, though he always makes it interesting. The big losers here are Damaso Marte and Antonio Osuna, who will return to setup roles.
The Hook: Koch should remain one of the top ten to fifteen closers gone in fantasy drafts.

Keith Foulke (White Sox to A’s) - Foulke won’t likely push for the rotation spot that he’d been pushing for in Chicago, but he should have little trouble settling into Koch’s old spot as the closer for the defending AL West champs. While a rough start forced him out of the closer’s role for the Sox last season, Foulke finished with his usual, respectable numbers last season, posting a 2.90 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, including a phenomenal 0.76 WHIP and 0.74 ERA after the break.
The Hook: Foulke should be one of the first five to ten closers taken in most drafts.

Mike Hampton (Rockies to Marlins to Braves) - Hampton is finally out of Coors, which should help the hurler who compiled the worst ERA of any pitcher who qualified for the NL ERA title. It should be interesting to see if he can regain his old form in a more pitcher-friendly environment, and the Braves expect him to be nothing less than a #2 starter behind Greg Maddux. Some fantasy owners will jump all over that and try and sneak him towards the end of the first ten rounds. Let them take the chance.
The Hook: Hampton’s problems run deeper than Coors Field. Over the last two seasons, he’s posted a 5.73 ERA at home and a 5.77 ERA on the road. While he’s always had some problems on the road throughout his career, this does not bode well for Hampton’s fantasy owners no matter where he’s pitching.

Tim Spooneybarger (Braves to Marlins) - Spooneybarger was expected to eventually develop into the closer for the Braves after John Smoltz left, but may have just seen his development quicken a bit. After posting a strong 2.63 ERA to go along with a 1.25 WHIP in his first full season, he heads to the Marlins, where only Braden Looper really stands in his way.
The Hook: Spooneybarger shouldn’t necessarily be counted on to win the closer’s job out of Spring Training, but he should be a viable pickup towards the end of your draft as a sleeper with potential to close. At the very least, he should enjoy the fruits of some solid innings out of the pen in pitcher-friendly Pro Player, and he should certainly be closing by midseason.

Elmer Dessens (Reds to Diamondbacks) - While the Win-Loss record didn’t show it, Dessens is coming off of his best season in the majors and should solidify the Diamondbacks rotation behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. He’ll never be a big strikeout guy, but his ERA should settle somewhere in the low-to-mid threes, and he should find a way to win more than the seven games he won last season with the Reds. Solid, but unspectacular, Dessens is at least consistent. He allowed more than four runs in just three of his thirty starts last season.
The Hook: Dessens is quietly making a name for himself as a starter who will give solid innings, despite not putting up big K numbers. On a two-time division winning team, he should be able to improve on his wins, bumping him to a #3 or #4 fantasy starter.

Brett Tomko (Padres to Cardinals) - Tomko never turned into the ace that the Reds initially praised him as before sending him away to Seattle, but he will enter the season as one of just three starters who don’t have question marks surrounding them for the Cardinals. A solid, inning-eating starter with good control, Tomko will be asked to remove some of the pressure surrounding ace Matt Morris and should give the bullpen some rest every once in a while. The concern here is that he pitched markedly better (4.12 ERA at home, 5.02 on the road) at pitcher-friendly Qualcomm last season for the Pads, a trend which followed him from Safeco. Busch Stadium is much more hitter-friendly, and that could spell trouble.
The Hook: Tomko is a middle of the road #5 starter on most fantasy teams. If there’s not a whole lot left in the late rounds, he should get plenty of wins in St. Louis.

Ryan Drese (Indians to Rangers) - To say that Drese was borderline awful would be an insult to any and all pitchers who actually were borderline awful. Despite his 10-9 record last season, Drese finished the year with a 1.73 WHIP and a 6.55 ERA. While a change of scenery often works for youngsters, he’s heading into the AL’s pitching purgatory in Texas, where the Rangers compiled a 5.16 ERA (12th in the league). The only positive to note here is that the youngster put it together for a couple of stretches last season, getting blown out only once in his last five starts.
The Hook: Leave him alone, but watch him. If he catches fire and bottles it up, this kid could turn out OK.

Aaron Myette (Rangers to Indians) - All Drese-bashing aside, Myette was the worst pitcher in the American League last season, posting a 10.06 ERA and a 2.17 WHIP in his twelve starts. He got out of the fifth just four times in those twelve starts, and out of the sixth just once as he walked 41 in just 48 innings. On the plus side, he also struck out 48, but he’ll likely start the season out of the bullpen, as Cleveland has a few other pitching prospects that are ahead of him.
The Hook: Unless you’re obsessed with bottom tier starters, leave him alone.

Ray King (Brewers to Braves) - King gives the Braves a competent lefty setup man in front of John Smoltz, and helps them deal with the departure of Chris Hammond to the Yankees and Mike Remlinger to the Cubs.
The Hook: He’ll only help if holds are valuable in your league.

Joe Valentine (White Sox to A’s) - Valentine was also sent to the A’s in the deal that sent Koch to Chicago. He tied the Southern League’s (AA) record for saves with 36 last season while posting a 1.97 ERA and holding opposing hitters to just a .176 average. Keeper leaguers take notice. Valentine could earn himself a job as a middle reliever for the A’s this season, but with Foulke only signed through 2003, he could emerge as a bigtime closer within the next couple of seasons.
The Hook: Watch for him in keeper leagues. Not worthy of a roster spot otherwise.

Luther Hackman (Cardinals to Padres) - Hackman enjoyed moderate success as a middle reliever for the Cardinals last season, and looked to be one of the final pieces as a possible starter until being traded for the safer Tomko.
The Hook: He will not start in San Diego, so his value will remain minimal, even in leagues that give holds value.

Free Agents

Tom Glavine (Mets) - It seems that Glavine refuses to believe that he’ll be 37 by the time the season starts. He produced what was arguably his best season since 1998 last year with the Braves, holding a solid 2.96 ERA and going 18-11. Given that he’s had a weak offense in front of him for most of his career, many would have thought that it would be hard for Glavine to find less support via free agency, but it seems he has. Watch for the win total to drop off a bit, but expect him to keep a solid low 3 ERA and post another great season.
The Hook: Glavine will be treated as an ace in most drafts, and it’s likely that he’ll slip to a #2 in New York this season, with less run support headed his way. He’s worthy of going in the first seven or eight rounds, but may go as high as the fifth in some leagues.

Jose Contreras (Yankees) - Let’s all say it, just to get it out of the way... The rest of the year, I’ll be using an “ignore the Evil Empire (somebody finally used that!)” approach, but for right now, it’s time to throw that quick little rant about how George gets whatever he wants. In this case, it’s a good thing for the rest of the league. Contreras is 31 going on 45. While he should produce a solid, ten win season, he will also turn out to be a big flop by the time his contract expires. None of these big, bad Cuban pitching experiments have really panned out as much as expected (Livan and El Duque had one stellar season before fading), and Contreras is already more past his prime than either of them. The shame of it all is that Steinbrenner’s All-Stars may keep the guy who should be their top starter in the next year or two from being able to pitch in the rotation and develop (Jeff Weaver).
The Hook: Contreras will go in the first ten to fifteen rounds of most drafts. He probably belongs there, but let someone else take the chance. He has a low-90’s heater and solid breaking pitches, but he’ll be touched up by major league hitting.

Paul Byrd (Braves) - Byrd was easily the best acquisition by the Braves this offseason. With less pressure, he should flourish in his new, more pitcher-friendly environment. Byrd doesn’t blow people away, but he has phenomenal control and is pretty tricky on the hill. He won’t likely improve upon his seventeen wins last season, despite playing for a better team, but should be more consistent.
The Hook: Byrd is a solid #2/#3 starter in most fantasy leagues, and should be expected to put up similar numbers to those which he put up in 2002.

Shawn Estes (Cubs) - Estes suffered his worst season in the bigs last year as he parted ways with long-time manager Dusty Baker, but will re-join his former manager in Chicago this season. While Wrigley doesn’t fit the pitcher’s-park profile that Estes needs to establish himself as a strong #3 fantasy starter, he should be able to improve on last season’s disappointing five win finish. He’ll never be a great secondary pitcher, as his career ERA is in the mid 4’s and his WHIP is in the 1.5 range, but he chews up some solid innings and should end up with 10-12 wins, providing a nice change of pace from the Cubbies front three fireballers.
The Hook: Look for a return to Estes’ 2000 numbers, which would make him a solid pickup anywhere after the 15th round in most fantasy drafts, and a solid #3 or #4 starter.

Ugueth Urbina (Rangers) - Urbina’s departure from Boston knocks him down a notch or two, but he’ll certainly hold the closer’s job down in Texas. Francisco Cordero may give him a little push or two, but will eventually settle for another year in a setup role.
The Hook: Urbina won’t get as many chances, and he may give up a few more taters in Arlington. Regardless, he can be counted on for a mid 3 ERA, 30+ saves, and more strikeouts than innings pitched.

Mike Remlinger (Cubs) - Remlinger will remain one of the top ten setup men in the league, but is only valuable in leagues with holds. His secondary numbers make him a strong late-round pickup even in leagues without holds.
The Hook: Even if your league doesn’t have holds, Remlinger routinely provides a strikeout an inning, a handful of wins, and a mid 2 ERA (1.99 last year!). He’s worth a stab late, and he’ll help to even out a bad start or two from one of the members of your rotation.

Chris Hammond (Yankees) - Hammond was a journeyman who finally found his niche in Atlanta last season, putting up one of the more phenomenal seasons that a middle reliever ever has. After going 7-2 with a 1.11 WHIP and a 0.95 ERA to go along with 17 holds in 76 innings, the Boss had to go out and grab this 36-year old lefty. Hammond should see his numbers drop off a bit (he’s only human), but won’t exactly slip to his career 4.25 ERA. He may be worth a stab in leagues with holds, as he figures to be the primary lefthanded setup man with Mike Stanton’s departure.
The Hook: Good in leagues with holds. Risky in leagues without them. His numbers last year weren’t a fluke, necessarily, but they don’t fall in line at all.

Al Levine (Cardinals) - Levine was signed to give the Cardinals some extra bullpen help. He’s been mentioned as a possibility in the closer’s role if Jason Isringhausen battles injuries all year like last season, but will likely be #3 on the team’s list behind Izzy and Steve Kline.
The Hook: A solid pickup in leagues with holds. Levine will be the primary righthanded setup man for the NL Central Champs.

Mike Timlin (Red Sox) - Timlin will head to camp as a major player in the Red Sox closer by committee role. One of the only pitchers with experience in the closing role in the Sox’ fold, Timlin was solid as the Mariners closer in 1998 and posted 27 saves for the Orioles the next season. While he hasn’t closed in a while, he should be given every opportunity to share the role with Alan Embree and the rest of the Sox’ handful of closer wanna-be’s.
The Hook: Don’t bet your house on him, but expect about ten to twenty save opportunities to fall into Timlin’s lap sometime during the season. If nothing else, he posts nice secondary numbers. He’s prone to the long-ball, but most of them are solo shots.

Chad Fox (Red Sox) - If Fox is completely recovered from his rotator cuff injury, he’s a decent bet to get a handful of saves, if not more, in Boston’s closer-by-committee. Fox was dominant in 2001 before missing most of last season due to injury, and was expected to have a crack at the Brewers closer’s job before his shoulder aggravated him last season.
The Hook: Fox is a solid late-round sleeper who will at least be in line for some holds in Boston, and could very well win a job as the primary closer.

Aaron Fultz (Rangers) - Fultz left the NL champs for greener (?) pastures. He should have little value as a middle reliever who isn’t even likely to see many setup chances in a crowded Rangers pen.
The Hook: Don’t waste your time.

Ramiro Mendoza (Red Sox) - Mendoza has little value outside of deep leagues. He may get the occasional spot start, and often comes in handy for an occasional three-inning save, but he should have little fantasy value.
The Hook: Avoid unless you’re in a deep AL-only league.

Joey Hamilton (Cardinals) - (Insert laughter here) Joey Hamilton? The guy who hasn’t posted a solid fantasy season since 1998 (13-13, 4.27), right? That’s right. Hamilton was signed as a middle reliever by the Cardinals in the past week, but may actually be forced to start with the shortage of arms in St. Louis. After Morris, Tomko, and Williams, the Cardinals have nothing but question marks, and that could lead to the 32-year old former starter taking a crack at the rotation a few times. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan loves those re-treads (see Williams, Benes, Finley) who people have given up on, so it just might happen.
The Hook: Seriously. Don’t even go near him in the draft, but keep that magical third eye open looking for Hamilton’s possible return to glory.

Esteban Yan (Rangers) - Yan’s move to the Rangers removes any and all fantasy value that he had, as he should battle to be the #2 setup man behind Francisco Cordero.
The Hook: You were better off avoiding him even when he was the Devil Rays closer, but now you’d be insane to go near him.

Chris Carpenter (Cardinals) - Carpenter will miss most, if not all, of 2003 with surgery. He’s a name to keep on the back-burner for keeper leagues and in 2004. A former star prospect, Carpenter never panned out in Toronto. Dave Duncan just loves that kind of pitcher.
The Hook: Avoid, but look for him in late August if his rehab is going well and the Cardinals rotation looks shaky.

Albie Lopez (Royals) - GM Allard Baird claims that Lopez will be given an opportunity to crack the rotation, but will most likely be used as a middle reliever. With the lack of experience on the Royals staff, Lopez just might get a shot to start, but is worth little anyway.
The Hook: Avoid any pitcher on the Royals for the 2003 season now that Paul Byrd and Jeff Suppan are gone. That definitely includes Lopez.

Next Week: Every staff in the AL East

Schedule
1/16 - AL East
1/23 - NL East
1/30 - AL Central
2/7 - NL Central
2/14 - AL West
2/21 - NL West

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