The Hook

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Atlanta Braves

Starters

Greg Maddux threw GM John Schuerholtz a curveball when he accepted arbitration in December, meaning he'll be back with the club for the eleventh straight year. Despite the fact that Maddux will turn 37 in April, he remains an elite hurler who has a few good fantasy years left in him. Though he's always been more of a finesse pitcher, his strikeouts were way down last season (118) and his durability finally seemed to take a hit, as he threw under 200 innings (199.3) for the first time since 1998. He's still someone that you can pretty much bank on getting fifteen wins with an ERA around 3 and a solid WHIP. Maddux will go high in some drafts, but many fantasy owners will back off of him because of his age.
The Hook: If he slips anywhere after the first five rounds, he's a solid pickup.

Hampton will be out to prove all of the doubters wrong this season, as many think that he's not the same guy he was before he went to Colorado. In truth, he doesn't look like he is. Over the last two seasons, Hampton has actually maintained a better ERA in Coors than he did on the road (5.73 at home, 5.77 on the road). Many will try and grab him solely based on name recognition, but even during Hampton's consecutive career years in 1999 and 2000, he was still no better than an average pitcher in two categories (WHIP - 1.32... average of 164 strikeouts) that upper tier starters should be carrying.
The Hook: Considering that he's coming off of a season in which he walked more batters (91) than he struck out (74), let someone else waste a pick on him.

Russ Ortiz has been phenomenal at home the last two years. Do not, however, make the mistake of drafting him expecting the same ERA and WHIP that he had in the friendliest pitcher's park in the majors. While he allowed just four homers over the past two seasons in Pac Bell, Ortiz was very mortal on the road, allowing almost a homer per start. A few more balls will clear the fence in Turner Field, but Ortiz should adjust and keep his ERA in the high-three's to low-four's. He'll remain a solid second-tier starter who could move up to elite status if he could just improve his command. He's averaged 4.4 walks per nine innings over his career, which he has cut to about 3.5 in the last two years.
The Hook: Ortiz is a solid pickup somewhere around the tenth round.

Paul Byrd has pitched well for the past season and a half with a team that's not expected to contend, but he may struggle a bit with the pressure of pitching for a division front-runner. Byrd adds yet another finesse pitcher to the Braves rotation, as he gets by mainly because of stellar control and trickiness. He'll likely remain somewhere around last season's 3.90 ERA with a solid WHIP, despite a more pitcher-friendly park, and should see another 15+ win season. Just don't count on him for more than 130 strikeouts.
The Hook: Like Ortiz, he's solid anywhere around the tenth round.

Jason Marquis can feel free to break out at anytime. He regressed a bit after a strong 2001 trial in the rotation, and runs very hot and cold. Just 25, Marquis has a great fastball that can touch the high 90's which he complements with a good slider. As he continues to develop his command, he should become a force in strikeout leagues and could pile up the wins in Atlanta.
The Hook: Jump on him late if he's there after the 17th round or so.

Bullpen

Converted starter John Smoltz proved that he can be effective for a full season out of the bullpen last season, and then some. His 55 saves fell just two short of Bobby Thigpen's record as he finished the season with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with more strikeouts than innings pitched. Removing his second outing of the season from the equation, Smoltz was flat-out dominant, allowing just 21 runs in 80 innings (2.36 ERA).
The Hook: Smoltz will likely be one of the first three closers gone in your draft, and is one of the few closers who is worthy of a selection before the fifth round when the closer runs usually begin.

Ray King will hold down the setup role, a spot which he held down effectively in Milwaukee for the past couple of seasons. King doesn't exactly have dominant stuff, but he's brutal on lefthanded hitters and is learning to get righties out as well.
The Hook: He should be a lock for 20 holds if your league uses them.

Florida Marlins

Starters

Burnett remained a bit wild last season, but he was one of the better hurlers in the league. After going 12-9 with a 3.30 ERA and striking out 203 in just his second season in the big leagues, Burnett seems to be on the fast track to stardom as one of the league's best power pitchers for years to come. The problem, however, is that he's the poster boy for Florida's pitcher abuse, as he threw over 100 pitches in 20 of his 29 starts last season, while finishing the season with 5 shutouts and 7 complete games.
The Hook: Provided that Jeff Torborg learns to ease up on his young power arms, Burnett's a solid pickup anywhere after the fifth with his filthy stuff.

Penny took a step back last year, struggling with inconsistency most of the way. After a breakout 2001 season where he finished with 10 wins, a 3.69 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP, Penny looked very hittable throughout the 2002 season, allowing a .286 average against. He should put it back together this season and still has the potential to be a fantasy ace. Penny has the stuff to strike out about 200 while keeping a low 3 ERA and a solid WHIP.
The Hook: Knock him back towards the tenth round and pounce on him if he's available.

Beckett suffered through his first season because of a chronic blister on his right middle finger. Originally projected as a four-category stud, Beckett was grabbed as early as the third round in some drafts last season as a rookie. Provided that he can keep the blisters under control, Beckett is a kid who will strike out more batters than a batter an inning while posting a strong low-three ERA and an amazing WHIP.
The Hook: His win total will only come along if the Marlins give him some support, but he's a steal somewhere in the lower half of the top ten rounds. Some people will back off because of the blisters last year, but don't let him slide too far.

Carl Pavano hasn't looked quite the same since surgery in 2000. Originally projected to be a #2 or 3 starter in the majors, Pavano has struggled in recovering from his elbow surgery and has gone 7-17 with an ERA over 5 and a WHIP over 1.55 the past two seasons. He did finish strong, going 3-0 in September.
The Hook: While he may be someone to keep an eye on, don't bother unless he shows he's healthy.

Mark Redman figures to benefit tremendously from the trade with the Tigers in the offseason. He'll remain in a pitcher's park and should see a bit more support from a scrappy Marlins bunch than he did in Detroit last season. Despite posting solid secondary numbers in Comerica (4.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), Redman is coming off of an 8-15 season. Look for him to hit double digits in wins this year with the fish.
The Hook: A solid sleeper who could win 10-12 games with a decent ERA and WHIP. He's more of a finesse guy, so don't expect him to rack up the strikeouts, but he's a solid filler at the back of a fantasy rotation.

Bullpen

Braden Looper should break camp as the closer for the second consecutive year, but he's suspect at best. After a poor start, Looper took on a little less pressure in a setup role and finished with a respectable 3.13 ERA in just over 80 innings. He brings the heat, but really doesn't have anything to go with it. Don't count on him for more than 25 saves, assuming he holds onto his job.
The Hook: Looper is better suited for a setup role. His secondary numbers are decent, but they don't blow you away like most closers should. His inability to develop a strikeout pitch should hinder him, and you shouldn't bank on him holding his job past midseason. As he'll still at least see anywhere from ten to twenty save opportunities, he's worth a late pick, but nothing more.

Tim Spooneybarger was the centerpiece of the second Mike Hampton deal in the offseason. At just 23, Spoon has already mastered three dominant pitches and will eventually replace Looper, possibly as soon as this season. He still needs to work on his control (4.5 walks per 9 IP), and his strikeouts should come as he gains better command. The potential is there, but look for him to break camp as the primary setup man.
The Hook: An excellent mid-late sleeper, Spoon is a solid pickup anywhere after the fifteenth round. He should be taken ahead of incumbent closer Looper in a lot of drafts.

Sleepers

Michael Tejera should still be in the mix for a shot at the rotation. After Redman was acquired from the Tigers, his value took a bit of a hit, but he'll be first in line to fill in for an injured starter. He doesn't have any dominant pitches, but mixes them well and was pretty effective last season, especially early on. He may not have the stuff for any long-term success, but he could surprise.

Starters

After a breakout year in 2001, Vazquez took a major step back last year, adding .49 to his ERA and .19 to his WHIP in a year where pitching numbers across the board improved. He relies mainly on two pitches, but has some breaking balls that he adds to the table and has excellent command (walked less than 2 per 9 IP last year). The pressure of being this team's ace was removed from him last season with the Bartolo Colon deal, but he struggled as soon as it was removed. At just 26 (hard to imagine that he's been the Expos ace four years running at the start of the season), he's entering his prime and may improve on his 2001 numbers, but should definitely improve on last year.
The Hook: An ace who may slip past the fifth round. Vazquez shouldn't really go any lower, but may end up sliding down into the lower half of the top ten rounds. He's a lock to challenge 200 strikeouts and should bag 15+ wins.

Armas has the stuff to be the #2 starter on this staff, but will likely break camp in the three or four hole. With a hard fastball and a nice change, Armas has the potential to strike out anywhere from 175 to 190 hitters and garner plenty of wins. He's had issues with his control since joining the big club three years ago, and could drastically improve his ERA and WHIP if he manages to improve his command. Despite battling back pain for much of the season last year, he finished 12-12 with a 4.44 ERA.
The Hook: Armas should garner at least another 12 wins this season with a low four ERA and a decent WHIP. He's a solid pick in the early-to-mid teens.

Tomokazu Ohka finally broke out last season, posting a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in just under 200 innings. He garnered the most wins of any returning starter (13) and may continue to grow a bit. He'll never really develop into much of a strikeout pitcher, which limits his fantasy value, but he has excellent control and should improve if he can learn to get righties out (1.40 WHIP vs. righties as opposed to 1.04 vs. lefties).
The Hook: If nothing else, Ohka is consistent. It would seem that 2002 was pretty close to his high-water mark, but he should put up similar numbers for a few years. Ohka's a solid pick after the tenth round.

Orlando Hernandez brings his 33 (well... somewhere under 43) year old arm over to the Expos as part of the three-way deal that sent Bartolo Colon to the White Sox. Hernandez is coming off of his best season since 1998, but he's not reliable enough to recommend for a fantasy squad. When he pitches, he's an effective four category performer, but Hernandez has dealt with nagging injuries in four of his five seasons in the league, and started just 22 games last season. Anything more than eight wins will be a bonus, but he'll post solid secondary numbers. Cross your fingers that he'll give you more than 120 innings if you draft him.
The Hook: El Puque is one of those players that always seems to go in the lower half of the top ten or the early teens. As often as he actually pitches, he's worth nothing more than a late flyer, but will be in the Expos rotation as long as he's healthy.

Sun-Woo Kim is the front-runner for the fifth spot in the Expos rotation, and could thrive if he wins the role. He has three above average pitches and has made great adjustments to hitters in the minors over the last two seasons. While he struggled when called up in Boston, he was dominant in three starts at the end of last season after being traded to Montreal.
Kim is a solid late-round sleeper who could find a way to win ten games if everything breaks right. Don't count on a ton of strikeouts.

Bullpen

Scott Stewart will likely remain the primary closer for the Expos despite an up and down year in 2002. He was lights-out at times last year, but struggled through July and September. While he's far from a sure thing, Stewart should garner 20 save opportunites or more unless the team finds a way to deal for a closer with their strapped budget.
The Hook: Strapped budget are the key words here. With a better bullpen last season, the Expos probably could have challenged the Braves a bit more in the East. The team can't afford to improve their bullpen situation, so Stewart's owners will enjoy another year of him being the de facto closer. He's a good pick after the fifteenth round, and could be an excellent third closer on most teams.

T.J. Tucker was viewed as the closer of the future in Montreal for the first half of last season, but fell apart in the second half. He doesn't have phenomenal stuff, but should get a crack at the role if Stewart struggles, and should pick up the occasional save in a bullpen-by-committee either way.
The Hook: Not necessarily worth a pick, but he's as good a longshot as any after all of the primary closers are gone.

Joey Eischen produced his best year in professional ball last year, suddenly emerging with a Chris Hammond-like 1.34 ERA in 53 innings. Not to be overlooked, though, is his 1.32 WHIP, which is far from closer material. Eischen is already 32, and the fact that he's a career journeyman should point out that he won't likely have a ninth-inning role. He should be in line for some holds as the primary lefthanded setup man, though.
The Hook: Watch him, but don't draft him.

Sleepers

Tim Drew was effective after coming over in the (first) Bartolo Colon trade last season. A middling prospect, Drew could either win the fifth spot in the rotation with a good Spring or earn himself a spot in the closer-by-committee.

Rocky Biddle (acquired in the recent Colon deal) should fit into the same situation as Drew. With a good Spring, he could bump Kim from the rotation, but he'll most likely end up as a long reliever. If he wins a spot in the rotation, he could win 7-10 games.

Starters

Glavine was the crown jewel of the offseason for the Mets. Not only did they add an upper tier starter, but they signed him away from one of their rivals and outbid another rival for him. As he'll be 37 by the time the season starts, you have to wonder how much longer Glavine can remain as effective as he has been in the past. If 2002 is any indication, he still has a few more seasons left in the upper echelon, and he's now pitching in one of the better pitcher's parks in the National League. His 18-11, 2.96 campaign was his best since 1998. Finesse pitchers tend to find ways to win, even as they get older.
The Hook: Glavine is still worth a look towards the end of the first ten rounds, but his relatively low strikeout totals keep him from warranting a higher pick than that.

Al Leiter has some company in the "wiley old veteran lefty brigade" now that Glavine is aboard. Unlike Glavine, Leiter is capable of pushing 200 strikeouts and has more of a power arsenal. Incredibly consistent, Leiter has notched 10+ wins seven years in a row and has kept an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50 three years running. The downside is that his ERA has risen the last three years, and he's also 37.
The Hook: Leiter may see that ERA continue to rise a bit, but he should continue to keep it under 4 and may challenge 15 wins with an improved offense to support him. He's a good pick in the lower half of the top ten rounds.

Pedro Astacio flourished early on last season as he made the switch from the two best hitter's parks in the NL to a pitcher's park. However, he was arguably the worst pitcher in the league down the stretch with an 8.55 ERA in eleven August and September starts. At 33, he shouldn't be out of gas, but be wary of him.
The Hook: While Astacio should produce a decent win total and strike out his fair share of batters, he's just too risky to take any earlier than the twelfth or thirteenth round.

Steve Trachsel came through with a career year last season for the Mets, going 11-11 with a 3.37 ERA. He mixes it up with five different quality pitches, none of which are spectacular, and relies on trickery. He'll never strike out the 150+ hitters that you expect out of a fantasy #3 or 4. While he has decent control, he's very hittable, and relies on his fielders behind him to come up with big plays. While that may have worked last season, don't bank on a follow-up from the 32-year-old righty.
The Hook: Somehow "Trash" always seems to find a way to be a solid back of the rotation guy, but his value is minimal. Draft him at your own risk, and expect something more similar to his 2001 numbers (11-13, 4.46 ERA).

Jason Middlebrook was once considered amongst the top pitching prospects in baseball, but elbow surgery has reduced him to someone who will likely just fill the rotation for a little while. He's an extremely hard-worker who has fought through injuries his entire career to get to where he's at, and will probably eventually settle into a long-relief role. For now, look for him to battle with Mike Bacsik for the fifth spot in the rotation.
The Hook: Move on.

Bullpen

As quirky as he is, and as much as he loves giving up the long ball, Armando Benitez is still one of the top ten fantasy closers out there. After limiting opponents to a .186 average last season and posting a 2.27 ERA, his 33 saves don't really look so disappointing. Considering that Benitez routinely strikes out about eleven batters per nine innings and that the Mets should have an improved offense to provide him with a few more chances, Benitez should be among the first few closers taken in most drafts.
The Hook: Benitez isn't necessarily a closer who should go before the run on closers starts, but he should fit right in amongst the top 4-10 closers taken. Grab him in the fifth or sixth when the run starts.

Sleepers

Mike Bacsik should challenge Middlebrook in camp for the fifth spot. He's overachieved throughout his minor league career and relies on a great change to go with a decent fastball. His stuff isn't phenomenal, but he could be a solid late pick if he wins the job.

The organization's top pitching prospect, Aaron Heilman, will also head to Florida with a shot at the last spot in the rotation. Heilman was 36-4 over his last three seasons at Notre Dame, and looked solid in the minors last season, posting a mid-three ERA. Most claim that he's ready, but his ceiling doesn't really seem to be too high. If Heilman wins the job out of Spring Training, think about him late, but don't bet the farm on him.

Projected Rotation

Jose Mesa ***

Starters

After losing out on the Tom Glavine sweepstakes, the Phils managed to acquire Kevin Millwood for a backup catcher from the suddenly financially strapped Braves. In doing so, they picked up a 28-year-old ace as opposed to a 37-year old ace. Millwood improved his command last season (65 walks in 217+ innings as opposed to 40 walks in half that many innings in 2001) and finally showed that he was healthy after two consecutive subpar campaigns. He's a bit of a risk as aces go, but he's among the most dominant starters in the majors if he wants to be.
The Hook: Millwood should be among the top ten starters taken in a lot of drafts, and shouldn't slip below the fifth round. He has the potential to win 20 with a low-three ERA, a solid WHIP, and close to 200 strikeouts. A legitimate fantasy ace.

Randy Wolf continues to put great second halves together, but must learn to pitch at a higher level before the break. Since 2001, Wolf has gone 12-5 with an astounding 2.13 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP after the All-Star Break. Unfortunately, he's a slow starter who has posted a 4.63 ERA before the break the past two seasons. If he can put a full season together, Wolf should be counted on as a strong #2 starter with the potential to be an ace. His strikeout totals won't blow you away, but they won't disappoint either.
Wolf will probably be taken anywhere from the sixth to eighth round. If he starts slow again, don't give up on him.

Vicente Padilla was one of the most pleasant surprises of last season for the Phillies. Originally projected as a late-inning guy, Padilla won a spot in the rotation with a good Spring and never looked back. He throws hard (high 90's), but doesn't get the strikeouts that would typically be associated with a fireballer, and it would seem that the real Padilla was the one who showed up in the second half (3.60 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) than the one who burst onto the scene in April (2.41 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). He's always had a bit of trouble with his command throughout his minor league career, but he's a solid #3 starter for any fantasy team.
The Hook: With an improved lineup supporting him, expect another 14-17 win season despite a slight decline in his secondary numbers. Padilla's not an absolute stud, but he's a strong middle of the rotation guy. He belongs towards the end of the first ten rounds or the early teens in a standard league.

Brett Myers has ace potential, but at just 22, he will likely ease into the rotation in the number four slot. Described as a Curt Schilling clone throughout much of his minor league career, Myers has excellent command of his fastball and changeup and also throws a nasty curve. He ran hot and cold in a trial at the end of last season, struggling with his control (34/29 strikeout to walk ratio in 72 innings), but his minor league numbers imply that he'll start hitting his spots in the next year or two.
The Hook: A solid late-round sleeper for this season who could surprise if he develops ahead of schedule. He's gold in keeper leagues.

Brandon Duckworth struggled in his first full season in the majors, watching his ERA balloon over five when all was said and done. His ratio of 167 strikeouts in 163 innings indicates that he could very well develop once he improves command of his pitches, and his 26 homers allowed were a big shock for a pitcher who has never really had trouble with the longball. Duck should beat out Joe Roa for the last spot in the Phillies rotation this Spring, and should improve with some more seasoning in the majors.
The Hook: Duckworth's another solid late-round sleeper who will strike out about a batter an inning. A move to the bullpen while he gets his feet wet could actually be a good thing, but expect him to start the year in the rotation.

Bullpen

Jose Mesa just won't go away. After posting his second consecutive 40+ save season in 2002, Mesa will return for a third straight season as the anchor of the Phillies bullpen. While he's kept his ERA down, he doesn't produce typical secondary numbers for a closer, as he strikes out less than a batter an inning and his WHIP is usually over 1.3.
The Hook: He'll make a lot of games interesting, but he should close out 30-40 games again this year, and is worth a look after most of the top closers are gone.

Some people are excited about Carlos Silva, while others seem kind of sour on him. Silva produced a solid season out of the pen last year, and should see plenty of chances at holds again this year. At just 23, Silva has been mentioned as a possibility after Jose Mesa retires or moves on, but most scouts claim that he doesn't quite have the stuff to close ballgames in the majors. Silva went 5-0 with a 3.21 ERA last season, but struck out just 41 in 84 innings and allowed a .272 average against.
The Hook: If he's healthy, he may be the most likely candidate to take over for Mesa if he breaks down. He should be good for 15-20 holds either way.

Sleepers

Terry Adams was very disappointing last season after all the money that the Phils gave him to become their fourth starter. After a move to the bullpen, he was gold, posting a 2.38 ERA. He came up and closed right away for the Cubs, and was mentioned as the most likely candidate to replace Jeff Shaw a few years back in L.A. before signing with the Phillies to try his hand at starting. He has both the stuff and the makeup to be effective in short bursts, and could end up seeing a bigger role than expected this season.
The Hook: Either way, he's an effective setup man who should garner plenty of holds with the Phils this season while keeping nice secondary numbers. In leagues with holds, he's definitely worth a look.