The Hook

AL Central Breakdown

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Starters

After a three-team deal, Bartolo Colon will return to the AL Central after spending the last half of last season in the National League with the Expos. Despite an alarming dropoff in his strikeout numbers last season, Colon turned in his best year, going 20-8 with a 2.94 ERA between both leagues. At just 29, he should be in for a few more consistent years of producing similar numbers.
The Hook: Colon is the division's only true fantasy ace, and he could actually see his win total rise with the superior support that he'll see on the South Side. Expect his strikeout numbers to improve over last year's disappointing 149, and grab him anywhere from the third to fifth round.

Although he'll be just 24 when the season starts, Mark Buehrle already has almost two seasons as the White Sox ace behind him. Inconsistency was a problem for the third year hurler last season, as he allowed five or more runs in nine of his thirty-four starts. However, he did battle through those rough starts enough to compile a 3.58 ERA and 19 wins last season. Expect more of the same this year, as he'll actually see some pressure removed from him with the addition of Colon as the staff's new ace. They should be a lethal one-two punch.
The Hook: His fantasy Achilles Heel will always be his strikeout totals, as he's more of a finesse pitcher. Another year of experience, as well as the addition of Colon, should do wonders for his confidence this season, though. Buehrle won't last much longer than the first seven or eight rounds in most drafts.

23-year-old right-hander Jon Garland finally took his spot in the rotation and held onto it for a full season in 2002. Garland features heat that can approach the high 90's and a powerful sinker that's been compared to Kevin Brown's at times. While his control has always given him fits, he's a good bet to build on a strong finish last season if he can just improve his command. Unfortunately, despite filthy stuff, he's never really been an accomplished pitcher in the strikeout department.
The Hook: Garland finally seemed to be getting it towards the end of last season, and could be a good bet to eventually develop into a big winner. Expect his ERA to drop near four this season, and expect his win total to rise accordingly. Garland's a nice sleeper who will probably go in the mid-teens.

Dan Wright is usually described as the top pitching prospect in a deep organization. With high 90's heat and a wicked curve, he could certainly emerge as a bigtime starter in the next couple of seasons. Still, his brief attempts at being a big-league starter should scare you away for the 2003 season. Wright has posted an ERA over five in each of the last two seasons. While he seemed to improve over the second half of last season, he still looks to be a year or two away.
The Hook: Keeper leaguers should think of grabbing Wright and stashing him on your bench. He's worth a shot late in deep or AL-Only leagues, but shouldn't really be drafted in a standard league.

Jon Rauch was considered the top prospect in the organization until shoulder surgery in 2001 set him back. He may have rushed back from the surgery a bit, and was lit up like a candle last season in the majors after posting solid but unspectacular numbers in AAA ball. With Rocky Biddle gone to the Expos, there's little standing in Rauch's way, and he should win the number five job.
The Hook: Rauch is still intriguing in keeper leagues, but he's not worth a look for this season.

Closer

Billy Koch left one great situation in Oakland and heads into another one in Chicago. He's as durable as a closer can get, and should continue to rack up the 35+ save, 80+ strikeout seasons for at least five more seasons. With an offense like he has in front of him and a strong middle-relief corps, Koch should see the Sox give him plenty of opportunities. He gets into trouble too much, but almost always finds his way out.
The Hook: Koch should go towards the end of the first true closer run in your draft. He's a lock for over 30 saves with a decent ERA.

Sleepers

Should anything happen to Koch at some point, Damaso Marte will be waiting in the wings. After winning the closer's job late last season, Marte proved that he has the makeup to close at the big league level, converting his last nine chances. Marte will post solid secondary numbers and over a strikeout an inning, and could fit well on teams even in leagues that don't count holds.

Projected Rotation

Starters

C.C. Sabathia is the only really intriguing starter on this year's squad. At just 22, the big lefty already has two full seasons to his credit, and could finally reach his potential this season. His 2002 follow-up to his rookie season saw him post virtually the same numbers that he did in 2001 (around a 4.4 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP). While better things are expected of him, the fact that Sabathia didn't suffer the infamous sophomore slump should be a good indicator that his stock should rise as his career progresses. The best news of all may be that Sabathia seems to have lost over twenty pounds from the start of last season, when he reported at a robust 300 pounds.
The Hook: Big and tall with a high 90's fastball, Sabathia could be ready to take off this season. In keeper leagues, he's gold. For this season, he's a solid pick late in the top ten rounds.

Oh, what a difference a year can make. Brian Anderson was slated as the number four for the defending World Champion Diamondbacks in the Spring of 2002, but now heads over to Cleveland, where he'll likely just hold down the fort at the major league level until the youngsters are ready to take over the rotation. A journeyman lefty, Anderson boasts a 4.72 career ERA and isn't worth anyone's time unless he has a Paul Byrd-esque breakout season.
The Hook: Avoid him.

Jason Bere will most likely end up winning the number three spot in the Indians rotation, but isn't anyone to get too excited about. Upon breaking into the league with the White Sox ten years ago, Bere was one of the better starters in the majors, but hasn't produced since. His career ERA in ten seasons is over five, and he's struck out more than 150 just once in his career. Bere should rebound a bit from last year's poor 1-10 showing with the Cubbies, but is no better than a #5 starter on a contending major league team.
The Hook: Stay away.

Ricardo Rodriguez leads the kiddie brigade, and seems to be the only young prospect who is all but guaranteed a spot in the rotation. The Dodgers' former top prospect has a solid three-pitch arsenal and seems to have nothing left to prove at the minor league level. Expect growing pains.
The Hook: Rodriguez is worth a look in some keeper leagues, as he should develop into a solid #2/#3 starter in the next few years, but he's not worth your time in a single-season league.

Cliff Lee, acquired in the Bartolo Colon deal last season, figures to have the best shot at the number five job this season. After tearing through AA and AAA ball last year with a 3.64 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 153 strikeouts in 146 innings, Lee appears to be major-leauge ready. His hard sinker should help keep the ball in the park at the big league level, and his good strikeout numbers are usually a good sign for young pitchers.
The Hook: Lee won't bust out in his rookie campaign, but should be a solid starter in the next couple of seasons. If you draft him, take him late, and don't expect more than eight wins with a mediocre ERA.

Closer

Danys Baez was finally moved back to the bullpen in mid-August last season after a decent showing as a member of the rotation. As a reliever, he was absolutely phenomenal in 2001, and should work well now that he can focus on pitching in short stints again. Baez closed six of eight tries down the stretch, and has the stuff to develop into one of the better closers in the league in the next couple of seasons. For now, don't expect the rebuilding Indians to give him enough chances to be an upper tier closer.
The Hook: Baez is a nice sleeper closer who should drop past the initial closer run. He's worth a shot anywhere around the tenth round, but could probably be had in the early teens.

Sleepers

Battling with Lee for the last spot in the rotation will be Jason Davis, Brian Tallet, and Billy Traber. Tallet and Davis were both effective in late-season callups, and could be effective in time. Traber didn't reach the majors last season, but was incredible between AA and AAA with a 17-5 record and a 2.94 ERA. Any of the four could end up starting this season in the rotation, and don't be too surprised to see all four of them in the majors by 2004.

Projected Rotation

Starters

Like most knucklers, Steve Sparks runs very hot and cold. He'll be incredible one night, and give up ten runs the next. If nothing else, he's durable and will chew up a ton of innings... just probably not the kind that fantasy owners want. After an eye-popping 2002 which saw him finish 14-9 with eight complete games and a 3.65 ERA, Sparks blew up last year with a 5.52 ERA. Expect those two figures to meet somewhere in the middle in 2003.
The Hook: Sparks will continue to run hot and cold. If the knuckler's on, he can be devastating. He's worth a stab late as a number five or six fantasy starter.

Mike Maroth doesn't have the talent that most prospects do, but he pitches smart and deceptively. In just his second season in the majors, expect Maroth to take his lumps repeatedly, while ocassionally providing a brilliant start. He has great control, which should keep his WHIP down, but he'll be lucky to strike out more than 100 this season.
The Hook: Maroth's a mid-range #4 starter in a few years, but that's not going to help many fantasy owners.

Andy Van Hekken could easily become a solid starter in time, but is similar to Maroth. He's still only 23, and his fastball tops off in the high 80's. He has a nasty curve, and could be a decent #2 in time if he develops an out pitch. Van Hekken struck out just five batters in thirty major league innings last season.
The Hook: Move on... Tricky lefties are a dime a dozen, but they don't learn how to fool big league hitters until they've been around for a couple of years.

Nate Cornejo has a world of talent, but just needs to harness it. His control has been nasty at the big league level in the last two seasons, as he's walked 46 in just over 92 innings. Still, he has a power sinker to go along with his mid 90's fastball and will most likely win the #4 job by default in Spring Training. In two stints with the Tigers last season, Cornejo got lit up by the league and finished the year with an ERA over five.
The Hook: Consider drafting him... in 2005.

Adam Bernero will likely fill out a hopeless rotation, but has little upside. He was very hittable last season (the league torched him for a .303 average) and has little upside. Although he's still only 26, there's little upside for a guy who tops off in the mid-90's and isn't very deceptive.
The Hook: Skip to the Twins report or go back to the White Sox report if you're looking for a starter from the AL Central.

Closers

A recurring shoulder injury kept Matt Anderson from following up on his breakthrough 2001 season. This year, it will likely be the starters and the lack of offense that keep him from closing out more than twenty-five games. He's topped 100 on the gun with his fastball, and can be dominant when he's on. The downside is that he has little to complement it, and major league hitters can sit on his heat.
The Hook: Rumors have already started swirling around Anderson. Expect him to be wearing a different jersey by August, and don't expect him to be closing games whereever he goes.

Franklyn German was considered among the top closers in the minors last season, and figures to start the year as a setup man to Anderson. Like Anderson, he tops 100 on the gun, but he also has a solid splitter that he works in. He's widely viewed as the closer of the future for the Tigers, and the future should occur some time during this season.
The Hook: If you're going to go after either German or Anderson, German should be the guy. He's still no better than a late-round pick with the support around him.

Starters

Hernandez is the only guy to get excited out in this bunch. Though he'll turn just 25 a month into the season, Runelvys will likely break camp as the team's ace. Hernandez has dominated minor league hitting and was very effective in a brief stint with the Royals last year. He managed to go 4-4 with a decent 4.36 ERA in a hitter's park on a pretty bad baseball team, and could be in line for a solid ten win season as the ace.
The Hook: If you're itching for a Royals starter, Hernandez should be the guy. He's going to be a good one in the next few years, so bump him up in keeper leagues.

Affeldt was solid when he was healthy in his rookie 2002 campaign. He battled blisters all last season, but isn't to be confused with fellow rookie blister sufferrer Josh Beckett. He showed good poise on the hill, and has a solid fastball that he uses to set hitters up for his twelve-to-six hook. Affeldt could develop into a good starter in time, but would be in the high minors for another year or two in most systems.
The Hook: Affeldt really isn't that bad a gamble late. Expect him to improve his win total a bit as a starter, but don't bank on more than seven or eight W's.

Ascensio was solid last season, considering that he had to pitch on the major league roster the entire year. A Rule V draftee from the Phillies, Ascensio won himself a spot in the rotation with a strong showing in May. He's still only 22, and should develop into a decent starter in time, but he's not ready to make a fantasy impact yet. His ERA didn't drop below five after his second appearance last season, and he had a disgusting 58-64 strikeout to walk ratio.
The Hook: Until he improves his command, he's not worth a shot, even in deep leagues.

James Baldwin will likely win the #4 spot just so that the Royals can claim that they have a starter who's over 25 and has more than 100 innings of experience in the majors. He shouldn't really be over the hill, either, at just 31. That said, he hasn't really been effective since the first half of 2000. If he's lucky, Baldwin will strike out 100 batters with an ERA around five and a mediocre WHIP. He'll be lucky to win more than six or seven games with the Royals, and isn't worth your time unless you're in a deep AL-Only league.
The Hook: He'll probably go late because of name recognition and the fact that he should win a starting job. Make sure it's someone else taking the chance on him.

Shawn Sedlacek thrives on deception and control, and did well early on in 2002. He did, however, finish horribly, allowing 46 runs (45 earned) in his last 40 innings. If you need another reason to avoid him, his strikeout to walk (52-36) ratio was horrible in 84 innings.
The Hook: Run.... Fast.

Closers

With the departure of Roberto Hernandez to greener pastures (Atlanta, where he won't close, but could be part of a winning effort) the closer's job will be wide open heading into Spring. Mike MacDougal is the clear favorite, as he throws in the high-90's and has three decent pitches. With just nine games and twenty-four innings under his belt at the major league level, he should be expected to struggle early on. He may have trouble adjusting to the role, as he's primarily been a starter in the minors.
The Hook: Last year, when I doubled as our Royals correspondent, MacDougal was referred to as the top starting pitching prospect in the Royals organization by a number of sources, so he's got the stuff to be dominant. Regardless, this team won't give him many chances, and he won't find the adjustement easy. He's probably worth a look late, but that's about it.

Jason Grimsley is making a living as an on-again, off-again pitcher. In 1999 and 2001, he was flat-out dominant as a setup man, but he struggled in 2000 and was no better than average last season. As the most experienced member of the Royals bullpen, he could be called upon often in a bullpen-by-committee, and is due to turn in one of his "on" years.
The Hook: Grimsley's a career middle-man who could close because of the lack of a better option. If MacDougal totally blows up, expect him to take over. Either way, he won't hurt your secondary numbers much and should be solid in leagues with holds.

Starters

Radke struggled with a groin injury that put him on the disabled list for the first two times in his career last season, and never really looked as effective as he has in years past. He should be rarin' and ready to go this year, and should post his typical 12-15 wins with a low-four ERA and 130 strikeouts.
The Hook: He's nobody you should overspend for, but he's solid, and should go in the early teens.

Big things have been expected out of Eric Milton for about three years now, but he refuses to emerge with a season that's better than what's expected of a #3 fantasy starter. Although he should be good for another 15 wins or so in 2003, the long-ball gives him nightmares. If he can hone that problem, he could finally see his ERA drop below four, but don't bet on it.
The Hook: Milton is still only 27 and should just be hitting his prime, so he could finally break through and become the ace he was expected to be. A more realistic guess is that he'll remain a decent #3 in fantasy leagues, and shouldn't go any higher than the tenth round.

For the second time in three years, Joe Mays struggled with elbow problems last season. He never looked anything like the pitcher who went 17-13 and was among the leauge leaders in ERA in 2001, but did have the same surgery that he had after the 2000 season. The surgery didn't hamper him much the first time, so it should be interesting to see how he bounces back this time. If he regains his confidence, he could be in line for a great year.
The Hook: Taking any pitcher coming off of surgery usually knocks them down a notch or two. After an off-year and the surgery, Mays shouldn't go much higher than the twelfth round in most standard drafts.

Rick Reed brings out that old, familiar word again: deception. Reed doesn't throw very hard, but uses great poise, smarts, and a model work ethic to succeed. A former replacement player, Reed won over ten games for the fifth time last season. Despite the fact that he's aging, Reed looked as good as ever last season in going 15-7 with a 3.78 ERA.
The Hook: Reed should continue to be effective this season, and could be sitting on another 15 win season with the Twins great offense and defense behind him. He usually slips under the radar and fits in somewhere in the early-teens.

Kyle Lohse enjoyed a breakout second half that saw him go 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA in just over 80 innings. Just 24, he should continue to build on his second half last season as he develops confidence in his ability to get major league hitters out. Lohse doesn't have a great fastball, but has a tremendous array of breaking balls, and could eventually provide a decent bonus in strikeout leagues.
The Hook: Lohse is worth a shot anywhere after the thirteenth or fourteenth round, but will probably be overlooked as the #5 starter on a veteran staff. Two or three years down the road, don't be shocked if he develops into a quality fantasy #2.

Closer

"Everyday" Eddie Guardado doesn't have dominant stuff, but he used his excellent control and solid slew of breaking pitches to dominate hitters in 2002 anyway. Prior to the 2002 season, he was one of the league's better setup men for five years, and had little trouble as he switched his role to an end-game situation. Look for pretty much a repeat of 2002, with a slight rise in his ERA.
The Hook: Guardado should go towards the end of the first closer run, and may save more than 40 games again this season.

Sleepers

Johan Santana will start the season in the 'pen, but will be the first man in if a starter will miss time due to injury. Santana was vicious on hitters last season, and actually led the Twins in strikeouts despite being a reliever/spot starter who only pitched 108 innings. His 2.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and eight wins were huge to whichever fantasy owner in your league grabbed him to pitch out of the bullpen. Santana will turn 24 early in Spring Training, and has a tremendous future.

J.C. Romero would be the most likely candidate to replace Guardado in the event of a trade or injury, and notched nine wins to go along with an ERA under two last season. He's big in holds leagues, and should be able to pick up enough garbage wins to help out in leagues without them if he can build on last season.