The Hook

NL Central Breakdown

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Starters

Believe it or not, it's been five years since Kerry Wood exploded onto the scene when he struck out twenty Houston Astros in a game. For the first time in 2002, Wood surpassed the 200-inning plateau, but the workload didn't seem to affect him, as he was dominant in the second half. The biggest issue for Wood would be his control, which was the key to his second half return to stardom, as he walked just 34 after the break in 106.2 innings as compared to 63 in 107 innings before the break. Assuming that he's fixed his mechanics and wasn't just on fire, Wood should post yet another amazing season.
The Hook: Wood shouldn't last much later than the fifth round in most fantasy drafts, but his overall numbers from last season may let him slip a bit. He's a lock for 200 strikeouts, and could be in line for 15-18 wins with more support from a young and improving lineup.

Although it took Matt Clement five years to do it, he finally produced the season that many drooling fantasy owners have been waiting for in 2002. Much like Wood, he fixed his control. Clement's previous career low in walks was 85 (which he tied in 2002) in 169 innings. His previous career high in innings was 205 (which he also tied). The first time that he'd pitched 205 innings, he walked 125 batters. With better control on his side, Clement shaved nearly a quarter of a base-runner an inning from his WHIP and a point and a half off of his ERA. He also surpassed 200 strikeouts and annihilated his career high of 170. At just 28, Clement is hitting his prime, and should be this good for years now that he's fixed his mechanics.
The Hook: Like Wood, better support would have meant 15-18 wins for Clement last year, but he finished with 12. His mechanics have been sketchy for most of his career, but it looks like the pitching coaches on the North Side have finally helped him fix the problem. Clement is a solid pickup anywhere between the sixth and tenth round in standard leagues.

Mark Prior completes the trio of young aces on the Cubs staff, and should be the best of the bunch when all is said and done. In his first season in pro ball last year, Prior earned a call-up in late May and dominated hitters from the start. Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Curt Schilling are the only starters in the last five seasons who could even remotely rival his 11.34 strikeouts per nine innings last season (147 in 116.2 innings). Prior uses a nasty curve and mid-90's heat and spots the ball as well as anyone I've seen in a long time. There may be growing pains this year, but pounce early anyway.
The Hook: Prior is a year or two away from being a perrenial Cy Young candidate. At just 22, he's already a bona fide fantasy ace, and shouldn't last past the first five rounds, particularly in keeper leagues.

Carlos Zambrano is another hot prospect who should succeed in the majors for years, but has yet to show the development that Prior has at the age of 21. He brings nasty heat to the table and a wicked sinker that tops off in the high 90's. With the control issues that the Cubs staff has worked through in the last year (particularly Wood and Clement), Zambrano seems to be in the perfect situation. He struggles with his command (walked 63 in 108+ innings last year), but if he can fix a few mechanical issues, there should be little standing in his way.
The Hook: Zambrano is a nice sleeper who few will think of after the Wood/Clement/Prior combo on the Cubbies. Despite his control issues last season, he was pretty much unhittable (.197 Average against) and maintained a 3.66 ERA. Lock him up late in keepers, and he's worth a flyer in single season leagues.

Shawn Estes may fall off of a lot of peoples' charts after a rough 2002 season, but is still worth a shot as a reserve starter in deep leagues. He's had awful control throughout his career (Does anyone sense a theme?) and doesn't blow a lot of hitters away, but he usually manages to keep his ERA in the stratosphere and works well out of jams. Back with his old manager, Dusty Baker, and on a team that may provide more runs for him than the Mets did last season, Estes could thrive on the North Side.
The Hook: While he could thrive, let someone else take the gamble. Estes is a WHIP-killer and doesn't really help enough in other areas to warrant a roster spot.

Closer

Antonio Alfonseca's first season in the "friendly confines" was a tale of two halves. He blazed out of the gate to an amazing start, posting 11 saves and a 2.61 ERA before the break, but was awful in the second half, blowing nearly half of his saves while sporting a 5.45 ERA. Rumor has it that he actually heard a friend kill himself over the phone around midseason, which is certainly a valid excuse for a lackluster performance on the field, but he's never been a great secondary pitcher anyway.
The Hook: While Alfonseca has averaged 30 saves over the last four seasons, he's extremely inconsistent and has a career ERA near four. His WHIP is too high for a closer as well, and he doesn't strike out nearly the batter per inning that traditional closers do. He should close 25+ games, but don't overspend.

Sleepers

Mike Remlinger has been phenomenal for the last three seasons as a setup man in Atlanta, and now takes his act to the North Side where he'll be first in line if Alfonseca should falter. Expect a low-to-mid two ERA and around a strikeout per inning when he pitches and push him up to the mid-teens on your draft board in leagues with holds.

Kyle Farnsworth should be the primary right-handed setup man for the Cubs this season, and has big strikeout potential. While he struggled mightily last year (ERA over 7), he still struck out a batter an inning and may just need to rely more on his fastball. At 27, the closer of the future tag still hangs around his neck.

Juan Cruz will primarily work in long relief, but has the stuff to close or start if he improves his command.

Starters

Haynes is coming off of a monster 15 win campaign in 2002, but has never been a pitcher who will put up secondary numbers that would warrant him being more than a #5 starter. In five full seasons in the big leagues, Haynes has topped 100 strikeouts just three times, and his control often gets him into trouble. While he's still only 30 and is in his prime, Haynes boasts a career ERA of 5.24 in nearly 1,100 innings and a career WHIP of 1.6.
The Hook: He should win 12-15 games again with a tremendous offense behind him, but the cost is that he'll kill you everywhere else. He's worth a gamble as a reserve starter, but really shouldn't crack any fantasy rotations on a regular basis.

After a breakout 2000 season, Ryan Dempster has fallen off of the face of the fantasy earth in the past two seasons. He's still possesses some nasty stuff, but has awful control and has walked 90+ four years running. If he ever finds a way to harness his control (and Dempster is still young enough to grow a bit), Dempster could become a solid fantasy #2. Until he does so, he's no better than a #5 starter or a reserve unless you're in a deep or NL-Only League.
The Hook: Expect him to rebound a bit from his last two years, which were pretty disgusting fantasy-wise. 12-15 wins and a low-to-mid four ERA aren't out of the question.... Just don't expect great WHIP numbers out of him. He's worth a shot late as someone with incredible potential.

Danny Graves will remove the training wheels and begin his first full season with a regular spot in the rotation in 2003. As a closer, Graves was a guy who could routinely come in earlier than the ninth inning to save, and he has more solid pitches than most major league closers. Don't expect anything quite like Derek Lowe's emergence in the Red Sox rotation, but don't be surprised if Graves is the Reds' best starter, particularly early. He may wear down a bit after he throws 150 innings or so.
The Hook: This experiment has been years in the making, and Graves has the stuff to be a legitimate fantasy #2/#3 starter. He's got great sleeper potential, but don't rely too heavily on him.

Luke Hudson has never been considered a top prospect, but has four solid pitches including a nasty hard sinker. He doesn't have a great track record in the minors, but was effective in the AFL (Arizona Fall League) and should win a spot in the rotation by default.
The Hook: Run

Jose Acevedo was once projected as a guy who could eventually develop into a solid major league starter, but has blown his two chances. If the third time's a charm (and due to the Reds pitching woes, there will be a third time), he could surprise. He doesn't have amazing stuff, but has good control and a great work ethic.
The Hook: Avoid

Closer

Scott Williamson will try his hand at closing for a full season for the first time this season. After being named the NL Rookie of the Year in 1999 (12-7 out of the 'pen with 19 saves and a 2.41 ERA), Williamson struggled with the workload of being a starting pitcher in 2000 and eventually needed Tommy John Surgery. He came back strong last year and was handed the closer's job late last season when Graves was moved into the rotation. Williamson has several plus-pitches, but mainly relies on an incredible splitter as his out pitch.
The Hook: Luckily for Williamson owners, the Reds do have a strong bullpen and a potent offense. While the Reds starters won't likely rake in the wins, the ballclub should get him enough shots to approach the 30 save plateau. He also fits the bill of a prototypical closer much better than Graves, and has struck out over a batter an inning in his career. A solid pick after the first 12-13 rounds.

Sleepers

Chris Reitsma has actually had two solid seasons in the Reds rotation with his secondary numbers, but doesn't overpower hitters and hasn't built a reputation as an innings-eater. He should compete with Acevedo and Hudson for the last two spots in the rotation, and should post a high-three ERA in whatever role he's in. He's only worth the gamble if he wins a spot in the rotation.

Starters

Although he's only pitched a year and a half in the major leagues, Roy Oswalt has already become a name that you can expect to see in the first two rounds on draft day. Despite a slight frame, Oswalt flings the ball up there in the mid-90's and has a devastating curve and phenomenal control to complement it. Already an elite pitcher, Oswalt should start challenging for some Cy Young awards in the near future.
The Hook: Oswalt is a lock for 18 wins, a low 3 ERA, a 1.1-1.2 WHIP, and 180 strikeouts if he stays healthy. Consider yourself lucky if you get him anywhere after the second round.

Wade Miller combines with Oswalt to form the second most devastating 1-2 punch in the National League. Miller throws hard and has five above average pitches that he has good command over. Despite a pinched nerve in April which kept him out for over a month, Miller still finished the season with 15 wins and was as dominant a pitcher over the second half as there was in either league (11-1, 2.00 ERA). At 26, he's just entering his prime.
The Hook: Miller is a legitimate fantasy ace who actually may drop below the fifth round in some standard leagues. He shouldn't, so snatch him up if he's somehow still around in the sixth.

Shane Reynolds clearly misses the Astrodome, and has been on and off the DL since 2000. At 34, he's the veteran of the Astros rotation and will be asked to chew up innings if he can stay healthy. Don't expect help from him in any area outside of wins.
The Hook: Though he was the team's ace heading into the 2000 season, Reynolds is really just here to help the youngsters develop. He's worth nothing more than a reserve spot unless you're in a deep league.

Saarloos was one of the most heralded sleepers when word got around that he was being called up last season, but struggled through his initial run in the big leagues. While he's not a power pitcher, Saarloos is as deceptive as it gets and has stellar control. He improved a bit down the stretch, and should continue to grow this season.
The Hook: Several scouts and a few players have compared him to a young Greg Maddux. If memory serves, Maddux wasn't so fantastic at the beginning of his career either (5.52 ERA in 1986, 5.61 ERA in 1987). The best hypothesis I could give would be that he should be avoided in single season leagues, but snagged in the middle rounds in keepers.

Redding has put together several solid seasons in the minors and projects as a potential front-of-the-rotation starter on many teams. In fact, two years ago, several publications believed he was the #1 prospect in the Astros organization. At 25, it's time for Redding to put up or shut up this season, and Carlos Hernandez's season-ending surgery will give him the opportunity in the rotation.
The Hook: Personal belief? I think Redding is going to put it together this year.... the kid is as about as good as Oswalt and Miller. That said, I had the same thoughts last season. He'll start the year in the rotation and is worth a late-round pick.... nothing more. If he puts it together, he could pitch like a fifth round pick.

Closer

Billy Wagner is absolutely still a front-line closer who should go during the first typical closer run. He still brings electric heat and has a good slider to complement it. Despite the fact that everyone was down on him in the first half because the Astros weren't giving him enough opportunities, Wagner closed out strong with 22 second half saves.
The Hook: Wagner's an elite closer who shouldn't last past the eighth round.

Sleepers

Octavio Dotel can't truly be classified as a sleeper, but since setup men don't really have defined roles in this column..... Over the past two seasons, Dotel has established himself as the elite setup man in the game, with potential to spot start or be in line for the closer role if Wagner suffers a freak injury. His ERA dropped below two last season and he won more than five games out of the bullpen for the second consecutive season while picking up a few saves. Dotel will pitch around 100 innings out of the 'pen and will bring down your ERA and WHIP from a few bad starts, along with bringing 12 strikeouts per 9 innings to the table.
The Hook: There are a lot of good starters and quality closers that should go long after Dotel is gone in your draft. With his versatility and amazing stuff, Dotel shouldn't last past the fifteenth round even in leagues without holds.

Starters

Sheets is really the only pitcher of value here, and started to show a lot of improvement last season. His second-half walk total of 25 (as compared with 45 before the break) in 107 innings show that he may be starting to gain better command of his pitches. Sheets should continue to develop into a solid #2/#3 fantasy starter, and could be better with run support.
The Hook: Sheets is a good guy to take a chance on earlier in a keeper league, but is worth a look in the middle rounds of single season standard leagues.

Glendon Rusch ran hot and cold in his first year with the Brew Crew last season. He was terrific in spurts, but also terrible in other spurts as he couldn't put two solid months together in a row. He's always been a finesse guy, so don't expect more than 160 strikeouts or so, but the alarming thing is that his walk total jumped from 43 (87 strikeouts in his last two seasons with the Mets) to 76 last year with the Brewers. Finesse pitchers who are struggling to hit the plate aren't going to help your fantasy team.
The Hook: Rusch still has the potential to be a decent back-of-the-rotation fantasy starter, but should be nothing more than a reserve if he repeats last year... especially with the run support in Milwaukee.

Nick Neugebauer (pronounced Newbower ;) ) is another one of those great prospects who have fallen apart in the last two seasons (see Tim Redding above). Over the last two seasons, he's spent more time on the DL or in the minors than he has with the major league roster, but his stuff is incredible when he's on.
The Hook: Take him at your own risk.

Former Cubs prospect Reuben Quevedo should consider himself he's lucky that "The Boss" isn't around to treat him like Hideki Irabu. The Brew Crew's "Fat Toad" will likely report to Spring Training at his typical 250 (mind you, that's listed) pounds entering camp and put forth his usual subpar effort as he watches his ERA stay around five for the third consecutive season. Quevedo still has a great power pitcher's arsenal, and could surprise if he puts forth the effort.
The Hook: He's not the second coming of Fernando Valenzuela, or even Sid Fernandez. Let someone else take the chance.

Todd Ritchie was one of the most overhyped pitchers heading into drafts for the 2002 season, and let many a fantasy owner down after getting out of the gate quick. While he won 11 games pitching for the division rival Pirates a few years ago, don't look for him to repeat that feat again in his career. Todd Ritchie will be remembered as the guy who brought Josh Fogg, Kip Wells, and Sean Burnett to the Pirates.
The Hook: Avoid

Closer

Mike Dejean stepped into the closer role last season and did an admirable job for the worst team in the NL, finishing with 27 saves in the Brewers 56 wins. He should enter the season as the closer again, despite the presence of prospect Luis Vizcaino breathing down his neck. All in all, his numbers are far from what you'd expect of a typical fantasy closer, as he keeps a high WHIP and doesn't strike out a batter an inning.
The Hook: Dejean is nothing special, but will be drafted in most leagues as long as he's a source for saves. If Vizcaino replaces him, he's waiver material, and with the Brewers' chances of success this year, don't be shocked if they try and let Vizcaino develop ahead of schedule.

Sleepers

Luis Vizcaino has been talked about as a potential closer for the past couple of seasons, but has been given up on by two teams in the past year. He proved himself as the primary setup man last season, posting a sub-three ERA and a phenomenal 1.05 WHIP in 81 innings, and should end up taking Dejean's job at some point before the end of the season.
The Hook: Vizcaino has stellar stuff and control, and is much more of a prototypical closer than Dejean. He's also young and on a team that's been rebuilding for the past ten years, so they may bump him up and see how he does in the closer role. He's a solid sleeper who may go before Dejean in some leagues.

Starters

Kris Benson started to look like his old self as the season wore down last season, which should be a great sign for 2003. Once considered one of the best prospects in all of baseball, Benson missed a year and a half after Tommy John surgery and struggled upon returning to the majors early last year. He's still got a great fastball and an amazing curve, and is just entering his prime.
The Hook: Look for a breakout here. Benson was 7-2 with a 4.15 ERA after the break last year and watched his monthly ERA drop each month throughout the season. He should be healthy and ready to go at the start of the 2003 season, and he still won't go until the mid-teens in most drafts, but could perform like a third or fourth rounder.

Kip Wells finally put a good full season together as he was removed from the South Side spotlight. Despite the 12-14 record, Wells kept his ERA below four all season long and threw almost 200 innings. While he has good stuff, Wells will never likely develop into a big strikeout pitcher. Regardless, he's improved three years running and is a good bet to match his 2002 campaign.
The Hook: Wells is a guy who I haven't seen going higher than the twentieth round in any mock drafts so far, but he's worth a shot anywhere after the fifteenth. He has tremendous upside and is coming off of a great season.

Josh Fogg doesn't throw particularly hard, but he changes speed well and is a smart pitcher. In his first full season in the majors, he showed great poise in the Bucs rotation, and fills out a great trio of young starters with Benson and Wells. Also acquired in the Todd Ritchie deal, Fogg paid immediate dividends by finishing 12-12 with a 4.35 ERA in almost 200 innings. He doesn't quite have the upside of Wells or Benson, but could eventually develop into a right-handed Jarrod Washburn.
The Hook: Fogg is another solid late-round pick who fits in well at the back of the rotation.

Brian Meadows is a soft-tosser with decent control. Unfortunately, he's very hittable. Even though the Pirates have improved their defense up the middle in the past couple of seasons, ground ball pitchers on teams that don't score a lot of runs don't win a whole lot of fantasy championships.
The Hook: Move on

Salomon Torres was one of the top prospects in baseball..... about ten years ago. He's never really had any big league success and is the proud owner of a 5.42 career ERA.
The Hook: Yawn

Closer

Mike Williams always starts out hot, but he kept on going all season last year, and finished with a career high 46 saves (on a team that won just 72 games). Williams is an efficient closer who lets his fielders get involved (in other words, don't expect his strikeout numbers to blow you away). The biggest thing working in Williams' favor is that the Pirates don't have a very powerful offense, and don't win a lot of blowouts.
The Hook: Williams is a solid second-tier closer who could surprise with another big saves total in 2003.

Sleepers

Dave Williams should compete for a rotation spot if he's healthy this Spring. He'll be coming off of arthroscopic shoulder surgery entering camp, but has posted solid numbers in the rotation over the past few years and could develop into a quality starter in time. With only Meadows and Torres blocking him, look for Williams to hit the rotation at some point this season.

Starters

Over the past two seasons, Morris has won 39 games and kept a low-three ERA, and nothing less should be expected as we enter the 2003 season. He has one of the nastiest hooks in the majors, and should have a little more support in a rotation that saw every starter hit the disabled list last season. If manager Tony Larussa eases up on his pitch counts (Morris had several terrible outings after being overworked in three start stretches last season), Morris could be in line for a career year as he's just hitting his prime. With a little luck, he'll get his ERA back below three (looking back to the pre-Tommy John surgery days) and win 20 with around 200 strikeouts.
The Hook: Go get him... Morris shouldn't last past the fourth round in any draft, and could go as high as the second round in deeper leagues.

Williams was on and off the disabled list last season with rib problems which occurred during his first start. That said, he's been fantastic in his season and a half of work in St. Louis (16-7 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP since the 2001 trade), and looked like a top ten Cy Young finisher when he was actually on the mound last season (9-4, 2.53 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).
The Hook: Call it bias (I am the Cardinals Correspondent on our site as well), but Williams will be 100% entering the season and should be listed as the sleeper pitcher of the year. While he's certainly not a kid, he's rejuvenated himself since heading to St. Louis, and will thrive again with a great defense and great run support behind him. Williams should go towards the end of the first ten rounds, but I've yet to see a mock draft where he went before the twelfth. Don't let the health issues scare you too much.

Brett Tomko was brought in to solidify the rotation behind Morris and Williams. On the positive side, the cost wasn't too high, as all they really had to give up was Luther Hackman, but he won't be the answer come playoff time. Tomko should chew up over 200 innings with the Cardinals, which will buy the bullpen some rest, and he should benefit from the run support that the Cardinals can give him. On the negative side, Tomko is a journeyman who hasn't posted an ERA below 4.44 since his rookie season in 1997.
The Hook: Don't draft him, but keep an eye on him. Chances are someone will take a chance on him in your league, but if they don't, keep in mind that Dave Duncan loves his rehab projects in St. Louis. If he can force Tomko to finally develop into a decent major league starter, consider me converted.

On the subject of rehab projects.... Dave Duncan named 35-year-old Cal Eldred, who hasn't pitched in two years after elbow surgery, as the Cardinals #4 starter less than a week ago, as long as his elbow holds up. Eldred was never really a great starter in the big leagues, but did manage to pile up a few wins with the Brewers and White Sox despite a pretty average mid-four ERA.
The Hook: While it's a nice story, you need your head examined if you draft Eldred... even in deep leagues. This would truly be Duncan's masterpiece.

The fifth rotation spot is truly up for grabs, and as many as four pitchers may compete for it. After signing an incentive-laden deal a few weeks ago, Dustin Hermanson should emerge as the favorite. Despite missing pretty much the entire 2002 season because of a groin injury, Hermanson was solid in 2001 with the Cards and is a bulldog on the hill. Don't expect tremendous success, but be ready to pounce on the former Expos ace if he wins the job and gets off to a good start.
The Hook: I really like Hermanson's chances of success this year, but you should temper that excitement. He's not guaranteed a rotation spot, and he hasn't looked like the pitcher he was early in his career since 1998. That said, he's still only 30 and should be in the prime of his career. Not worth a draft pick.

Closer

Jason Isringhausen is amazing when he's healthy, but has had shoulder surgery five teams throughout a relatively short career. Last year, he ended up on the disabled list twice, but still finished the season with 32 saves and a 2.48 ERA with a WHIP below 1.00. If his health was guaranteed, Izzy would be a top five closer, but it's not, so he shouldn't really go any higher than the ninth or tenth round.
The Hook: Make sure you have a backup plan if you draft him.

Sleepers

Steve Kline led the team in appearances for the second consecutive year, despite hitting the disabled list for over a month. The gritty, grimy (seriously... the dirtiest hat in baseball) lefty has kept his ERA under 3.50 in four of the past five seasons, and, with Dave Veres gone, should see all of the save opportunities in St. Louis if/when Isringhausen goes on the disabled list.
The Hook: Kline is a solid source of holds if your league counts them, and is a solid bet to get at least 5-10 saves in 2003 with Isringhausen's injury history.

Most of you know the Rick Ankiel story, but I'll re-iterate it. After a phenomenal 2000 season, Ankiel couldn't find his control in the playoffs and lost it mentally for a year or two. He's expected to compete for a bullpen spot with the big club this season after bouncing around the minors as a pitcher and part-time DH for the past couple of seasons. With the lack of a serious third starter, Ankiel could end up taking the job over at some point during the season, but don't bet on it.

Jimmy Journell is the top prospect in the organization, but the Cards will be sure not to rush him after the fiasco's in the last two seasons with Ankiel and Bud Smith. While he's not young for a prospect (25), Journell has yet to spend a full season in AAA ball, and the Cardinals will likely let him develop there. He could get the call at midseason.

Garrett Stephenson was another pitcher who was overhyped entering last season (though not on FIC's part) and was on and off the disabled list the whole year. While his attempt to return from Tommy John surgery early was admirable, it was ill-advised. Stephenson is a #5 starter at best on a major league rotation, which is exactly what he'll end up competing for this season. Despite his 16 wins in 2000, most people seem to overlook Stephenson's 4.49 ERA. He doesn't belong on any fantasy team, whether he wins the job or not.

Jason Simontacchi burst onto the scene and saved the Cardinals from certain rotation disaster last season. Although it took him a long time to make it to the majors, he should be counted on to stick in the rotation if the Cal Eldred experiment fails and win ten games again. Simontacchi has pretty good control and is very deceptive, but he'll kill any chance you have of competing in strikeouts as a regular in your rotation if your league counts them.
The Hook: Simontacchi faded bigtime after the break last season. Call it a rookie wall if you want, but consider that he didn't make the majors until he was 29 before you try and really argue that point. He's a good guy and a great story... he's even a quality major league starter. One thing he's not is a fantasy starter unless you're in a deep NL-Only league.