The Hook

AL West Breakdown

Team Previews can be skipped to at the following links:

Starters

Jarrod Washburn finally put a whole season together in 2002 after a September collapse in 2001 and an injury in August of 2000 diminished his value in prior seasons. He doesn't overpower hitters, but changes speeds as well as any pitcher in the majors and relies mainly on a fastball with good movement. He has a great bulldog mentality on the hill and is a virtual lock for 15 wins again in 2002 with a solid mid-three ERA. Beware his injury history, though.
The Hook: Wash is about as solid as it gets when it comes to #2 fantasy starters, but his history of falling apart late in the season should scare you enough to let him slip to the sixth or seventh round. Even last year, when he looked great through the entire regular season, he was blasted in the World Series and said he had nothing left in the tank by the time it was over.

"Baby Pedro" comparisons were cut off last February after Ramon Ortiz was found to be 29 instead of 26, but it doesn't detract from the filthy stuff that he throws. Ortiz is coming off of his second consecutive double-digit win campaign (15 in 2002) and made great strides last season, particularly with his strikeout to walk ratio. So long as Ortiz can keep finding the strike zone, he's a good bet to lower his ERA from last year's 3.77, especially if he can keep the ball in the park. 200 strikeouts are improbable, but not out of the question.
The Hook: Ortiz won't be everyone's favorite sleeper like he's been for the last two seasons, but he's a dependable starter. Despite leading the majors in Home Runs Against (40), he made sure that most of them were solo shots and maintained a 1.18 WHIP and a 3.77 ERA.... now, if he could just find a way to keep the ball down....... Ortiz is a solid pickup anywhere after the tenth round.

Although he was originally drafted as a first baseman, John Lackey was the man who took the Angels to the promised land in Game Seven of the World Series last season.... as their starting pitcher. Upon his midseason call-up from Edmonton, Mike Scioscia immediately saw great things happening with Lackey, comparing his effect on the Angels to that of Tim Hudson's effect on the A's when he joined their staff. When all was said and done, Lackey's bulldog presence on the mound combined with his mid-90's fastball and a solid curve and slider to give him a 9-4 record with a 3.66 ERA.
The Hook: Expect a bit of a letdown this season, but anything less than 12 wins with a 4 ERA would be a disappointment. Lackey has great command of his pitches for a youngster, and should develop into a dependable starter for years. He's a steal in the mid-teens, but may go higher because of the hype of a Game 7 World Series win.

Kevin Appier's a long way removed from the days when he was competing for the Cy Young Award with Jack McDowell in Kansas City, but he's still a dependable #5 on many fantasy squads. While he's getting on in years and doesn't have the stuff that he used to, Appier is smart enough and deceptive enough to get hitters out consistently. Expect his strikeout numbers to stay in the 130-140 range for the remainder of his career, but bank on 10-12 wins with a high-three ERA for the World Series champs.
The Hook: Appier is worth nothing more than a late pick, but he rarely misses a start and still puts up solid numbers across the board.

After enjoying a career year with the Mariners in 2001, Aaron Sele struggled with injuries last year before eventually going under the knife during the playoffs. He's good for one thing, and one thing only, in fantasy baseball... Wins. He's typically had a good offense behind him throughout his career and has posted a 115-77 (.599) record over his career, but his career ERA is 4.23 and his WHIP is a god-awful 1.46.
The Hook: A 15-5 record in 2001 looks awfully tempting, doesn't it? How about the #5 starter for the defending champs? Tempting again? Even with those factors, Sele shouldn't be anywhere near a fantasy rotation.

Closer

Troy Percival was easily one of the five most dominant closers in baseball over the past two seasons, and there's no reason to believe he won't be again. With a strong starting staff and bullpen, he should continue to see plenty of opportunities and has never allowed the league to hit better than .190 against him in a single season (2000).
The Hook: Percy shouldn't go before the first closer run like Rivera, Gagne, or Smoltz, but he should be one of the first two closers taken in the first true run of the draft.

Sleepers

Francisco Rodriguez really burst onto the scene in the playoffs last season, but he wasn't so bad in his September call-up either.... all he did was strike out 13 of the 22 batters he faced. He dominated in the minors as well, striking out 120 in 83+ innings, but has a bit of a history of arm trouble. At just 20, "K-Rod" will be the primary setup man for Percival and will be the first option if Percy has to take one of those familiar visits to the trainer's room. Rodriguez features high-90's heat and one of the filthiest sliders I've ever seen.
The Hook: Like Dotel in the NL Central, K-Rod's not really a sleeper, but the middle relievers don't really have their own spot in our division previews. Expect him to go in the mid-teens, rack up a few vulture wins, and pick up a save here or there with awesome secondary numbers and a 12/9 strikeout to innings ratio.

Starters

Barry Zito won his first Cy Young Award in 2002, and the sky is still the limit for the 24-year-old lefty. Though he's a bit eccentric, Zito keeps a level head on the mound and uses one of the best curveballs in the game to keep hitters off balance. Don't necessarily look for a repeat of his amazing 23-5 2002 campaign, but expect his ERA to remain around 3 while he pushes 20 wins again.
The Hook: Zito shouldn't last past the second round of your draft, and is a virtual lock for 17-20 wins with a high 2/low 3 ERA and a solid 1.2 WHIP. He should push 200 strikeouts as well.

Mulder has won 40 games over the past two seasons. While his ERA won't blow you away (it's stabilized in the 3.4 range for the past two years), his fantastic control will. While he held the league to an astounding .211 average against last season, the more important statistic is that Mulder has walked just over 100 batters in almost 430 innings since the start of 2001, leaving him with a 1.15 ERA over the past two seasons.
The Hook: Mulder is a borderline top ten overall starter in mixed leagues who can be counted on for 17-20 wins with a solid ERA and a great WHIP. Don't get your hopes up that he'll surpass 165 strikeouts, though.

Rounding out the "big three" is Tim Hudson, who has won 53 games over the past three seasons. Despite his career-best 2.98 ERA last season, Hudson doesn't quite dominate like Zito and Mulder, but he's the bulldog of the three. While his strikeout numbers are slightly above average, he's much more hittable than Zito or Mulder (.262 average against last season), but his phenomenal control has helped his WHIP stabilize in the 1.25 range for the past three seasons. Hudson has pitched over 200 innings three years running, and has thrown 573 innings over the last two years.
The Hook: That's kind of a scary workload, but Hudson has been as dependable as it gets for the past few years. He should be the last of the big three to go, but that doesn't mean he should last past the fourth or fifth round.

Ted Lilly will support the big three in his first full season in Oakland this year. Lilly has never really had a chance to pitch in a rotation for a full season, but was solid last season with the Yanks and A's. He fools hitters rather than blowing the ball by them, but he's still kind of a work-in-progress. With a couple of years of experience between the Bronx and the Bay, Lilly should flourish this season and be a dependable #4/#5 fantasy starter in standard leagues.
The Hook: Could you do better? Sure, but you could also do a lot worse.... Lilly will slip later in the draft than he should because he missed much of the second half with an inflamed shoulder. Anything less than 12 wins and a low 4 ERA should be considered a disappointment.

Aaron Harang was one of the most overhyped call-ups in baseball last season, as his ugly 68-45 strikeout to walk ratio killed the WHIP of many a saavy fantasy owner who grabbed him. While he did well in the high minors and will likely win the job out of Spring Training, he's probably just holding it down until uber-prospect Rich Harden is major-league ready.
The Hook: If Harang can get his command under control, he's a solid late-round sleeper who could post double digit wins in Oakland.

Closer

Keith Foulke responded pretty well after losing his closing job on the South Side last season. Despite an awful stretch in late April and May, Foulke's final numbers on the season looked pretty similar to his career numbers.... without the 35-40 saves. Now in the Bay Area, Foulke can be expected to slide right into the spot that Billy Koch used to vault himself into top ten closer status. Don't expect much more than a strikeout an inning, but expect tremendous control and a great WHIP around 1.00.
The Hook: Foulke should be among the top ten closers gone in most drafts. There's no way he should slip past the first seven or eight rounds.

Starters

All of the innings that Garcia threw in 2001 seemed to catch up with him last season. Although he was the workhorse on one of the better staffs in the league for the second straight year, Garcia followed his breakthrough 2001 by watching his ERA jump up almost a point and a half in 2002. He's still good for 15-18 wins and 170 strikeouts, but his workload last season may catch up with him again, as he threw 223+ innings.
The Hook: Garcia is a strong second tier starter who could be an ace. Cross your fingers and hope that last year was just a hiccup in what could be a brilliant career. He shouldn't last past the seventh or eighth round.

The 40-year-old Moyer followed up a career year in 2001 by posting his best secondary numbers of his career in 2002. The soft-tossing lefty held opponents to a .213 batting average in 2002 while establishing career bests with a 3.32 ERA (over a full season) and 1.08 WHIP. He rarely walks hitters, but his 147 strikeouts last season were more of an exception than a rule. Moyer should continue to pitch well late in his career, but expect a slight decline across the board as he nears the end of his career.
The Hook: Moyer won't blow you away with any of his numbers, but he should remain a solid #3 starter in standard leagues. He's a fantastic control pitcher who is smart and won't hurt your team anywhere.

Joel Pineiro has the most dominant stuff on the M's staff, and is starting to learn to harness it at the big league level. After a dominant trial in 2001, Pineiro led the team's starters with a 3.24 ERA in his first full season. His low-90's fastball has good movement, and he supports it with a good curve and a solid changeup that he's still learning to control. If he can improve on keeping the ball down in the zone (24 homers in 194 innings last year), Pineiro could make the jump from fantasy #2 to fantasy ace.
The Hook: All aboard. Pineiro won't last past the ninth round in many drafts this season, and could produce like an ace with a full year under his belt.

Ryan Franklin could well see his fantasy value shoot through the roof as he joins the starting rotation this season, but don't bet on it. Franklin has excellent control, but has been very hittable in his first two years in the league (.250 average against) and will never emerge as a great strikeout pitcher. In future seasons, he could end up turning into a right-handed Jamie Moyer. For now, though, he's never pitched more than 118 innings in a single season at the big league level and is a risk to fade down the stretch.
The Hook: I'd let someone else take the chance. Franklin will primarily end up in the rotation because there's a lack of a better option at the big league level right now.

Rafael Soriano is one of the better starting prospects in baseball, but he's coming off a 2002 season that saw him on and off the shelf with shoulder trouble. At just 23, there's plenty of time for him to develop into a top-notch starter. Unfortunately, that may be the road the Mariners decide to take, as he'll have to fight it out with Gil Meche and Jamey Wright for the fifth spot.
The Hook: Keep him on the radar for next year, but make him stay healthy for a full year before you consider drafting him.

Closer

Kazuhiro Sasaki joins Percival and Foulke as a third top ten closer in the four team division. Sasaki combines his decent fastball with a devastating splitter to keep hitters off balance, and lowered his ERA to 2.52 last year from the 3.1 range in 2000 and 2001 despite allowing a higher batting average. When he's on, Sasaki can be counted on for about a 10/9 strikeout to innings pitched ratio and a solid low 3 ERA to go along with a WHIP around 1.00. The M's give him plenty of chances, and he doesn't blow many of them.
The Hook: Sasaki is a top ten closer who should go in the first ten rounds. Be wary of his offseason elbow surgery, but he's headed into camp saying that he's 100%.

Sleepers

Arthur Rhodes may be the dominant lefty setup man in the game. After posting 59 holds in the last two seasons to go along with an ERA around 2.00, Rhodes has shown that he's one of the few middle relievers that is worth a roster spot even in 5X5 leagues. He won't pick up many wins, and won't likely notch more than 5 saves, but his low ERA, low WHIP, and 80-90 strikeouts will help make up for a struggling starter every once in a while.
The Hook: Rhodes has the stuff to close, and could be amazing in the job if Sasaki goes down. Either way, he's worth a late flyer as a guy who will do nothing but help your secondary numbers.

Jeff Nelson spent nearly two months on the shelf last season after having surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow and never really recovered to produce like he has in the past. With a full offseason to rest up, Nelson should return this season to be one of the better right-handed setup men in baseball. He typically keeps a high 2 ERA and a WHIP in the 1.1-1.2 range and always strikes out over a batter an inning.
The Hook: It's hard for a setup man to slip under the radar, as they have little value anyway. Regardless, Nelson will. In leagues with holds, he should be a fantastic addition, and he should be solid in leagues without them.

Meche seemed to be on the fast track to stardom after a solid 1999 trial with the club and a hot start to the 2000 season, but has been on and off the shelf the last few years. While he struggled in the minors last season, he's expected to challenge for the fifth spot in the rotation and could be a decent back of the rotation starter if he wins the job.
The Hook: Move on.... Meche has plenty of potential, but he's developed a reputation of frailty, much like fellow prospect Ryan Anderson.

Starters

Chan Ho Park found last year that the grass is indeed greener in Chavez Ravine. In his first year outside of Los Angeles, Park blew up with a 5.75 ERA (jump of 2.25) and 1.59 WHIP (jump of 0.42) in the Ballpark in Arlington. An injury to his hamstring and a blister didn't help him much, and Park can't truly be this bad, but don't expect him to be anyone similar to the fantasy #2 that pitched for the Dodgers a few years ago.
The Hook: Park should improve drastically on his ERA and WHIP this season and find a happy medium between his Dodger days and last season. Expect anywhere from a 4.00-4.50 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, which would make him a decent back of the rotation guy in standard leagues.

John Thomson has plenty of experience pitching in one of the best hitter's parks in the league, and now gets to head to another stadium that gives pitchers nightmares in Texas. If nothing else, he's proven to be a dependable starter in the last two seasons who will provide a mid 4 ERA no matter where he's starting with a high WHIP. He may see a few more wins head his way now that he has a better lineup behind him, and he has a history of keeping the ball down, which he'll need to do in his new surroundings.
The Hook: He could be worth a shot late, but don't count on him to anchor your rotation.

For the fourth straight season, Ismael Valdes will be starting the season with a different team. Before being traded to the Mariners last year, Valdes was arguably the Rangers best pitcher, going 6-9 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 22 starts. He'll never be a big strikeout guy, but is tremendously effective with his control and usually tends to keep the ball in the park.
The Hook: Valdes is another guy who may be worth a stab late, but won't play a big role on any fantasy squads.

Joaquin Benoit is pure power, with mid-90's heat and a high-80's slider forming most of his repertoire. He's still only 25 and has the experience of just 13 starts in the majors, where he had a disgusting 58/50 strikeout to walk ratio last season. Until Benoit can figure out some way to get his command down, he's not worth a look even in deep leagues.
The Hook: Next....

Ryan Drese was arguably the worst starter in the American League last season. While he has potential and actually won 10 games in 2002, the 6.55 ERA and .317 average should scare you away. If that's not enough, his 102/62 strikeout to walk ratio in 137+ innings should have you cringing in the corner, and the fact that he's now in the best hitter's park in the American League should make you want to vomit.
The Hook: Check back in two years, but Drese should be put in front of the fantasy firing squad for now.

Closer

Ugueth Urbina may be the worst closer in the division, but is still worth a gamble right after the top ten closers are gone in standard leagues. After notching 40 saves in Beantown last season to go along with a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, the Sox let him test the free agent waters. He's still a strikeout an inning pitcher, but his ERA and WHIP are likely to rise slightly this season, as he'll give up a few more dingers in Arlington. Still, he should end up with more than 30 saves with a mid 3 ERA.
The Hook: Urbina still belongs in the first ten to fifteen rounds in most drafts, and is a solid pickup after the first-tier guys are gone.

Sleepers

Francisco Cordero will have to wait another year before he realizes his potential as the Rangers closer, but he may be the best arm in the Rangers 'pen. After striking out a batter an inning last season and maintaining a 1.79 ERA to go along with a 1.01 WHIP, he'll get one more shot as a setup man after the Rangers acquired Urbina. Anything short of 20 holds would be a disappointment, but expect his secondary numbers to drop off a bit.
The Hook: If anything happens to Urbina (and it has in the past), Cordero will assume the role of closer. He should put up decent numbers either way, and is worth a shot late in standard leagues.

Colby Lewis may crack the rotation at some point this season, and has tremendous potential as a power righty. He had a fine 8/9 strikeout to innings pitched ratio in the minors and has a history of keeping the ball down and getting his infielders involved. Lewis is still young, but he should get a shot at battling Ryan Drese and Joaquin Benoit for the #4 and #5 roles in Spring Training.
The Hook: He brings good heat and an incredibly hard curve to the table, but is probably a year or two away. Even if he wins the job this Spring, I'd avoid him unless you're in a keeper league.