The Hook

NL West Breakdown

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Starters

After winning his fourth consecutive Cy Young Award last season with the Diamondbacks, it's safe to say that Randy Johnson is the best pitcher in fantasy baseball. Although the Unit turns 40 in September, he's as durable a starter as there is in the league and can propel a team to a strikeout title singlehandedly. Over the past three seasons, he's averaged 21 wins, a 2.48 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and 351 strikeouts.
The Hook: If you're obsessed with having Johnson on your staff, I suggest you rig the draft lottery so that you have one of the top two picks.

Curt Schilling combines with Johnson to form what's possibly the most devastating 1-2 punch that baseball has ever seen. Througout much of the 2002 season, it seemed that Schilling would end up having more victories than walks, and his 33 walks in 259.1 innings should be considered legendary for a power pitcher. His high-90's heat and devastating splitter make him one of the top three pitchers in all of fantasy baseball, as he should continue to keep his WHIP right around 1.00 and strike out close to 300 batters. Like Johnson, he's getting on in years, but he's getting better with age.
The Hook: Schilling won't make it out of the first round, and will likely go in the top eight picks overall.

Elmer Dessens is the latest attempt by the Diamondbacks organization to find a solid third starter behind Johnson and Schilling. His win total dropped with the Reds last season despite shaving a point off of his ERA. He should see tremendous support from an offense that led the National League in runs last season and could end up turning the corner. At 31, he's flat out in the middle of his prime. He won't produce big strikeout numbers, but the fact that he'll pitch after fireballers like Johnson and Schilling could throw hitters' timing off.
The Hook: Don't bet on a repeat of his 3.06 ERA last season, but expect it to hover around 4 this year in Arizona. With better support, he should win 12-15 games easily. He's a solid mid-round pick.

John Patterson was once considered the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, but elbow surgery slowed his ascent to the big leagues. He still has a big curveball, but has lost about five or six miles per hour off of his fastball since the surgery. On the positive side, he's become more determined and smarter over the past few years, and now has two of the best starters in baseball to help him develop. Patterson looked good down the stretch in a trial with the Diamondbacks last season, going 2-0 in 7 appearances (5 starts) with a 3.23 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 30+ innings.
The Hook: A prime sleeper candidate. Patterson has the stuff and the grit to succeed in the big leagues. Don't expect him to strike out the batter an inning that he did in his stint last year, but he's worth a look in the mid-to-late teens as someone who could win 15+ games as soon as this season.

Byung-Hyun Kim wants to make the move from closer to starter, and all indications are that he'll win the job in Spring Training. BK could provide Johnson/Schilling/Pedro type strikeout numbers in the rotation, and was easily one of the top ten closers in the league last season. Closer-turned-starter guys are tough to predict, but he could have a Derek Lowe type of impact if he builds up his stamina on the mound.
The Hook: Kim has a tendency to work too deep in the count, often throwing nearly 30 pitches in an inning if he gets into any kind of trouble. This won't help him as a starter. Regardless, draft him just like you would if he was still closing, as he'll be called back to the 'pen as a closer the second Matt Mantei falls apart. Kim shouldn't make it out of the first ten rounds.

Closer

With Kim likely headed to the rotation, Matt Mantei will re-claim the closer role that he lost to injury in 2001. Mantei has good strikeout potential in an end-game role, but has always gotten into trouble with poor control. His career WHIP of 1.40 should have many running for the hills if they select him as one of their top two closers, and his injury history should scare many off as well.
The Hook: Even before Tommy John Surgery a few years back, Mantei was a #2/#3 closer on fantasy rosters at best. If he comes back strong, he could end up returning to that stature, but if last year is any indication, don't bank on that.

Sleepers

If Kim wins the rotation spot, Batista will be the one left out in the cold. He will, however, have first crack at starting if anyone gets injured or if Kim is moved back to the bullpen. After a mediocre start to his career as a spot starter/long reliever, Batista had come through as the third best starter on the staff over the past two seasons and was starting to make a name for himself in the fantasy world. If he wins a rotation spot, Batista is capable of 12-15 wins with a high 3 ERA and a solid WHIP. He won't strike out more than 130 batters though.
The Hook: Batista's still a solid pick late in the draft. As a long reliever, he should see a few vulture wins, and the chances of him cracking this rotation at some point are very good.

Projected Rotation

Starters

Based on his 16 wins, Jason Jennings won the 2002 Rookie of the Year, despite pitching over half of his starts in Coors. He keeps the ball down well, which is a definite necessity in his home park, but will still kill the ERA and WHIP of many a fantasy team simply because of where he pitches. He could be in line for another 12-15 wins this season, but at what cost?
The Hook: Avoid all Rockies starters. If you're just dying to take one, though, make sure it's Jennings.

Denny Neagle will be the lone starter with more than two full years of experience on the staff, and hasn't enjoyed the unfriendly confines of Coors Field himself over the years. A solid secondary pitcher throughout his career, the past two seasons have seen Neagle fall off the chart as his ERA has hovered around 5.3 for the past two seasons and his WHIP is almost two tenths higher than his career WHIP since the start of 2001.
The Hook: Move on. Even if he's (finally) traded, his value is diminishing due to his age.... plus, he'll probably nix the deal.

Shawn Chacon looked ready to make the jump and become the best pitcher on the Rockies staff entering last season. Despite an ERA just over 5.00 in 2001, he posted great strikeout numbers and seemed to have the toughness required to win in a ballpark where you just know you're going to give up some runs. One year and 5-10 MPH off of his fastball later, there's little to get excited about.
The Hook: Chacon has the talent to win in the big leagues, and he has the talent to be a big strikeout pitcher in the majors as well.... just not in Coors.

Denny Stark looked like the ultimate "Coors-tamer" in 2002, but wasn't so hot on the road. Formerly the AAA pitcher of the year in the Mariners organization, Stark fits into the prototype for a Rockies starter. He relies mainly on a good sinker and a hard slider, but he must learn to improve his command before he can be considered a fantasy factor. His 64/64 strikeout to walk ratio from last season was pretty scary.
The Hook: Keep an eye on him.

Aaron Cook also fits the Rockies prototype. Another young fireballer with a good sinker, Cook blazed through three different levels last season, and should be repaid with the number five spot in the rotation. Cook throws in the high 90's and has had excellent control throughout his minor league career. If he can spot his pitches well and raise his strikeout totals, he could be the best pitcher on this staff by the end of the year.
The Hook: Watch him, but don't draft him.

Closer

That's right.... the only Rockies pitcher who is truly worth a roster spot is Jose Jimenez. Despite the fact that he pitches in Coors, Jimenez only has to pitch in short bursts and is coming off of a monster career year in 2002. Jimenez finished the 2002 season with 41 saves and kept his ERA at a solid 3.56 while maintaining a WHIP of 1.19. He has the stuff to continue to succeed, and some of the nightmarish scores in that place mean that most games will come down to the final inning, making him a valuable asset.
The Hook: If he leaves Coors (and still closes whereever else he goes), treat him like a top tier closer. For now, consider him one of the best second tier closers out there and snatch him up around the tenth round.

Starters

Odalis Perez finally broke out on the scene last season after coming over in the Gary Sheffield trade. Perez has had elbow troubles throughout his career, but was clearly the club's most dependable and durable starter last season. He combines his mid 90's fastball with a fantastic curve and a quality big-league change to keep hitters off balance, and has phenomenal control. Expect him to win 15-18 games again for the Dodgers this season as he solidifies his stock as one of the top twenty pitchers in the league.
The Hook: Perez may be a bit of a reach in the first five rounds, but anywhere after that, he's solid.

Hideo Nomo returned to the form that he had when the Dodgers made him the first Japanese pitcher to start in the major leagues in 1995. After spending a few years bouncing around the league, his return to Dodger Stadium saw him shave a point off of his ERA and match his career high in wins. Nomo will always be a great guy in strikeout leagues, and should continue to be fantastic as long as he's calling Chavez Ravine home.
The Hook: Nomo's a solid #3 fantasy starter who's capable of notching over 200 strikeouts with a mid three ERA. 15 wins aren't out of the question. He shouldn't last much longer than the tenth round.

How quickly we forget. Kevin Brown was a first or second round pick as recently as two years ago, but has fallen out of favor because he's become pitching's version of J.D. Drew. This walking injury found himself on the disabled list for two and a half months last season, partially due to elbow problems and partially due to a hair-brained pulled disc he got when wrestling with his son. If he's at 100% and actually pitches for a full season, Brown is one of the top ten pitchers in the game... just don't count on it.
The Hook: Expect another year of twists and turns from Brown. As I said, if he's 100%, he's an ace, but age (37) and recent history are against that being the case. Take him late if he's there as a high reward guy... just make sure the risk is low.

Andy Ashby will never be the dominant starter that he was in 1998 for the Padres, but he's a servicable back of the rotation fantasy starter in mixed leagues. Durability and control seemed to be issues for the 35-year-old after his return from surgery last year, but he still ended up with solid secondary numbers. Expect him to post a better 2003 as he should be at full strength all year long.
The Hook: A mid-three ERA and 12-15 wins aren't out of the question. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, and his WHIP will continue to be middle of the road at best. He won't hurt you, and is a solid pickup anywhere in the late teens.

Kazuhisa Ishii started out hot last season, but finally saw his awful control catch up with him in the second half. Despite missing his last four starts after getting hit in the head by a comebacker, Ishii led the league in walks allowed, handing out five more free passes than teammate Hideo Nomo. While one can only expect that he has to improve his command a bit in his second year in the big leagues, Ishii has plenty of experience as a professional starter in Japan and will turn 30 this season.
The Hook: Let someone else take the chance. The way that his season ended last year was scary, and who knows how he'll react to heading back onto the mound. Even if he is OK, he's a WHIP killer all the way.

Closer

Eric Gagne won the closer's job in late March last Spring and never looked back. He removed his poor curveball from the equation and relied mainly on his fastball, which he threw harder in short bursts, and his fantastic changeup to dominate the league. Goggles should only continue to get better in the next few seasons, though a repeat of his 1.97 ERA may be asking a bit much. Expect him to have the best WHIP of any closer in the National League and challenge for the lead among relievers in strikeouts again.
The Hook: Smooth sailing. When we rank the whole league next week, expect Goggles to be the #1 closer on the list, and the only one who should go in the first three rounds.

Starters

Brian Lawrence may be the next Greg Maddux. His fastball doesn't even touch 90 MPH, but he spots it as well as anyone in the game, with good movement on all of his pitches. Lawrence is an excellent young control pitcher who should only continue to get better as he matures. If he learns to get lefties out better, who hit .298 against him last season, Lawrence could be ready to absolutely dominate this year. He'll max out at around 160 strikeouts, though.
The Hook: Lawrence is always undervalued, but is a solid #2 starter who shouldn't make it past the eighth or ninth round. He's posted back to back seasons with a mid-three ERA to start his career.

At just 21, Oliver Perez was already hearing Barry Bonds say he was one of the best lefties he'd faced all season. When all was said and done last year, Perez moved up all the way from High A ball to the big club and was dominant in half a season in the big leagues. In 90 innings, Perez struck out 94 batters and kept a 3.50 ERA. He has a great mid-90's fastball, a hard slider, and a deceptive changeup. If Perez can get his command down, he could be one of the top five pitchers in the league within the next few seasons.
The Hook: His stuff is just plain filthy, and he looks like he's about ready to dominate major league hitters. Don't grab him any higher than the tenth round, but be ready to pounce if he slips that far.

Adam Eaton may be the best pitcher on this staff, and he isn't likely to go until the later rounds of your draft. Eaton missed most of the 2002 season because of Tommy John Surgery, and didn't quite look like he was ready to return to form in his first few starts after a brief rehab stint. He closed out strong, though, allowing just four runs in 21 innings over his last three starts. He changes speed well, has a great hard sinker, and has solid strikeout potential.
The Hook: Much like I said about Williams a few weeks ago, Eaton has "sleeper of the year" potential. He's ready to win now, and if he's healthy, he should be nasty on hitters this season, particularly at Qualcomm.

Peavy was considered the top prospect in the Padres organization, and possibly all of baseball, when he was called up in June. He brings mid-90's heat to the table along with a sharp slider and a nasty changeup, and his mentality on the mound seems like that of someone who's been in the league for years. Peavy should continue to grow this season in the big leagues, and could be a year or two away from becoming one of the most dominant starters in the league.
The Hook: Peavy has been targeted by many as a bigtime sleeper this season, and that might not bode well come draft day. I'd expect some growing pains this season and a big year next year. Many leagues will see him taken in the first twelve rounds, but my hunch is that he belongs somewhere between 16 and 18. 15 wins aren't out of the question, but 8-11 wins with a low four ERA is more realistic. He doesn't have the strikeout numbers to back him that Perez does, and he looked very hittable (.269) last season.

If Kevin Jarvis is healthy, the fifth spot should be his to lose until the Tank gets a little more seasoning in the minors. Jarvis is nothing more than an experienced filler while the organization waits for the kids to develop. With a little luck, he could win 12 games again like he did in 2001, but his ERA (5.83 career) will hurt you.
The Hook: Stay away.

Closer

Barring a trade, Jay Witasick will start the season as the Padres closer. Witasick has been a fantastic setup man for the past two seasons, and has the strikeout numbers that you'd typically look for in end-game situations. With just one career save to his credit, it could be interesting to see whether he really has the makeup to close games at the big league level.
The Hook: Witasick should be one of the last closers taken, simply because of his lack of a history in the role. Trevor Hoffman will take the job back over if he ends up healthy at some point, but that's anybody's guess.

Hell's Bells might not be heard at all this season, and some reports are that it might not be heard in 2004 either. A long history of shoulder problems is catching up with Hoffman fast, and he's elected to try and rehab rather than have surgery that would put him on the shelf for the next two seasons. In all likelihood, he still wouldn't be ready to go until late this season, even without the surgery.
The Hook: Avoid him.

Sleepers

Joining Perez, Peavy, and Eaton as the fourth member of the best young sleeper rotation in baseball is Dennis Tankersley. To say that he struggled last season would be an insult to any starter who just struggled in the big leagues. After walking more batters than he struck out (40/39) in 2002 and finishing with an ERA over 8, Tank will likely start the year in AAA to get a bit more seasoning before he comes back for another shot.
The Hook: Bank on a late-season callup for Tank, but don't even think of grabbing him until 2004.

Starters

Jason Schmidt looked "Schilling-esque" in the playoffs last season, dominating hitters left and right and showing pinpoint control. He'll enter the 2003 season as the Giants ace, and brings a hard high-90's fastball to the table along with an improving changeup. The best thing about Schmidt is that he gets better as the game goes on, but his injury history is a bit scary. If Schmidt can stay healthy and composed, he's one of the top ten pitchers in the league.
The Hook: In our (still unposted) mock draft, he went in the seventh, which is around where he'll go in most drafts. If you're guaranteed a full healthy season, he could be third round material. Schmidt may win 20 this year, and should strike out over 200 batters with a low 3 ERA and a solid 1.15 WHIP.

Kirk Rueter is an absolute picture of consistency in a league dominated by ups and downs. Since 1997, Rueter has won between 11 and 16 games every year, and has always finished above .500. That said, his ERA is always around 4.25 or so and his WHIP usually hovers around 1.35. Throw in anywhere from 80-110 strikeouts and you have a starting pitcher who belongs at the back of a rotation at best.
The Hook: Rueter always quietly puts up those solid numbers, and isn't a bad gamble late. He won't blow you away, but he always helps a fantasy team more than he hurts it.

Livan Hernandez is far removed from the days when everyone thought he was going to become one of the dominant hurlers in the league. After a great 2000 campaign that saw him go 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA, Hernandez fell apart in 2001 and rebounded with a pretty average season in 2002. Look for 2002 (12-16, 4.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 134 K in 216 innings) to become the norm as he becomes a perrenial late pick.
The Hook: Hernandez just isn't that hot. He won't win 12 games again if he keeps pitching like he has, as one of the young guns will take over his spot in the rotation.

Damian Moss will be worked in slowly to the Giants rotation as he tries to figure out where the strike zone is. His final ratios (3.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) with the Braves last year were astounding when you consider that he walked 89 hitters in 179 innings. If he figures out a way to harness his control this season, look out. Moss is now in the best pitcher's park in all of baseball, and should be better than the man who he was packaged for (Russ Ortiz).
The Hook: Moss has the moxie to become a consistent fifteen-game winner, and should recognize that potential this year as he pitches for the defending NL Champs. He's worth a shot anywhere after the tenth round.

Kurt Ainsworth will be given every opportunity to win the last spot out of Spring Training, and there's every reason to believe he'll run with it. He's been described as having as many as four plus-pitches and sets hitters up well with them. If he can continue to keep hitters off balance in the majors, Ainsworth, along with fellow prospect Jesse Foppert, could develop into one of the league's better starters, particularly in Pac Bell.
The Hook: Ainsworth had trouble locating his pitches in a brief stint with the big club last season, and had a weak 15/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 25.2 innings in San Francisco. That said, he's never really had problems with his command in the minors (119/43 K/BB ratio in AAA last year) and should be ready to succeed once he gains a little more experience and confidence at the big league level. He's worth a shot late, but I wouldn't bet the farm on him.

Closer

The Nenth inning is as scary as it gets for many clubs around the league. After his third straight 40+ save season and fourth in five years, Nen has established himself as one of the premier closers in all of baseball. He strikes out more than a batter an inning, and will typically keep his WHIP in the 1.1 range with a solid mid-two ERA. Nen is a prototypical closer.
The Hook: Nen should go near the beginning of the first true closer run, shortly after Gagne, Smoltz, and Rivera are gone. Technically, he's in for an off year (he seems to alternate a bit), but even an off year from Nen is still as good as it gets from most #1 closers.

Sleepers

Even after a shaky first half last season, Felix Rodriguez is still one of the top six or seven setup men in baseball. After struggling with command issues early on last season, F-Rod returned to elite status in the second half when he posted a 2.70 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in the second half. He's typically good for a strikeout an inning, and picks up the occasional vulture win or save.
The Hook: Our new Giants correspondent was also quick to point out that Rodriguez may end up on the block at some point this season. If he's traded anywhere where he might end up closing, he's golden. Either way, Rodriguez is fantastic in leagues with holds and worth a spot even in leagues without them.

Jesse Foppert is a long-shot for the rotation this season, but should become a fixture for years in the Giants rotation once he gets the call. Foppert throws in the high 90's and is as dominant a strikeout pitcher as the high minors have seen in quite some time. Last season, Foppert struck out 183 batters in 140 innings between AA and AAA ball with a 3.46 ERA.
The Hook: Look for Foppert to start the year at AAA, but expect him to get called up at midseason if anyone in the rotation is struggling. He's not worth a pick unless you're in a keeper league.

Ryan Jensen did win 13 games as a member of the rotation last season, but his secondary numbers were awful, especially when you throw in the fact that he was in a pitcher's haven. Long-term, Jensen projects as a middle reliever in a rotation that's loaded with more talented pitchers than him. He does have a nasty curve and is pretty adept at fooling hitters.
The Hook: Even if he beats Ainsworth for the #5 spot, he's still probably not worth a look.