The Hook

Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Curt Schilling

Despite the fact that he'll turn 40 this season, Randy Johnson is the class of the fantasy world. He's as durable as they come (average of 35 starts over the last five seasons) and will be shooting for an unprecedented fifth consecutive Cy Young Award this season with the Diamondbacks. The Unit should also surpass 300 strikeouts for the sixth straight season in 2003 while keeping a mid two ERA and challenging the 20 win plateau again.

Even with durability issues a major concern, Pedro's ability to keep the ball in the yard while maintaining better secondary numbers in every category over Curt Schilling make him the number two fantasy hurler. A healthy season from Pedro means that you can expect close to 300 strikeouts with a high one ERA and a WHIP in the 0.9 range. Throw in 20 wins and Pedro would conceivably be the best fantasy starter out there. Unfortunately, a heavy injury history knocks him down a bit.

Curt Schilling is an absolute workhorse on the mound who will maintain a lower WHIP than his teammate (Johnson), but watches the ball sail out of the yard a bit too often. Expect him to give up around thirty dingers this season, which will be the main reason that his ERA will be somewhere around three when all's said and done. On the positive side, he may give up more homers than walks. Schilling will keep his WHIP right around 1.00 and flirt with 300 strikeouts again himself, while winning 18-21 ballgames.

Roy Oswalt
Barry Zito

Oswalt continues to show poise beyond his years, and his small frame held up quite well over the course of his first full season. Bet on his 200+ strikeouts in 2002 becoming the norm for him, and bank on 18-22 wins this season for a potential division champ. Oswalt struggled a bit with his control down the stretch last season, and if he can get that down, he could easily become late first round material for years.

The only thing that knocks Zito below Oswalt on our rankings is strikeout potential. The AL Cy Young winner last year, Zito still struck out nearly 200 batters, and is capable of doing so again himself. Zito should be penciled in as a 20 game winner with a high 2 ERA and a great WHIP in the 1.15 range. Zito and his nasty hook should go towards the end of the round, but I've seen him go as high as late in the first round in some drafts.

Eric Gagne

Goggles may struggle a bit to repeat last year's phenomenal breakthrough, but he tops our closers list and is the only guy who should go in the first three rounds. Gagne should lead all closers in strikeouts per inning and threaten the 50 save mark again. Throw in a low two ERA and a sub-one WHIP and he's money in the bank.

Matt Morris
Tim Hudson
Roy Halladay
John Smoltz
Mark Mulder

Morris should have a bit more help if the Cardinals rotation stays healthy this season, and that could mean lower pitch counts. As long as Tony Larussa doesn't wear him out, Morris should return to his twenty-two win form of 2001 while posting a low three ERA and a solid WHIP in the 1.2 range. 200 strikeouts aren't out of the question, but 190 or so is much more likely.

It took me four years to figure out what the big deal is about Tim Hudson, but I'm coming around. Despite finishing with his lowest win total in his three full seasons in the majors, Hudson improved his control enough to finish with his best secondary numbers in his career. Expect him to make his high two ERA the norm for the next five seasons, and bank on a return to the 175 strikeout seasons that you'd become accustomed to. With a tremendous offense behind him in Oakland, the support should fall his way a bit more often in 2003 and he could win twenty again.

Don't believe the hype. Roy Halladay isn't as good as last year's numbers look.... he's better! Halladay should find his spot as a bona fide fantasy ace as the offense and bullpen surrounding him mature a bit this season in Toronto. Although he won 19 in 2002, he would easily have won three more with a stable bullpen that blew three of his leads. If the bullpen situation is solved, Halladay will be able to go a little more full tilt and should approach the 200 strikeout mark in 2003. With Carlos Tosca back for his first full season at the helm, the Jays should be a team on the rise, and Halladay should reap many of the benefits.

Somewhat lost in John Smoltz's superb 2002 season, his first as a closer, was the fact that he gave up eight of his thirty earned runs in his second outing of the season. Atlanta figures to play a lot of their typical pitching duels this season, and that means that he'll see a lot of save opportunities yet again in Turner Field. Don't expect him to blow up in one game like he did last season, and expect a mid two ERA with more than a strikeout per inning from Smoltz in 2003. Anything less than 45 saves would be a disappointment.

The view towards the Marx Brothers are probably the major difference you'll find on this site from a lot of others. Obviously, right now we're talking about Mulder (we'll get into the Buehrle discussion later). Many view Mulder as a second or third round pick, but his strikeout totals are too modest to warrant that high of a selection. He certainly won't hurt you, and he should challenge twenty wins like he has the past two seasons, but he was clearly the third best of the A's "Big Three" last season from a fantasy perspective. Put a cap on his strikeout total at 160, and grab him near the end of the fourth or the beginning of the fifth.

Kevin Millwood
Kerry Wood
Wade Miller
Mariano Rivera
Greg Maddux

Millwood would rank higher on our list, but the two seasons that he had after his last big year are a bit scary. He's more than capable of 20 wins in Philadelphia with a mid-to-high two ERA and close to 200 strikeouts. It's all a matter of whether he wants to succeed as the club's ace. Millwood never really had John Rocker like head problems, but he doesn't always seem to stay focused. If he remains focused in 2003, he should challenge Johnson, Schilling, and Oswalt for the National League Cy Young.

Last year was a tale of two (odd) seasons for Kerry Wood. In the first half, he went 8-5 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Despite the high secondary numbers, he was absolutely unhittable and gave up just a .168 average to the league. Then there was the second half.... Wood was an under .500 pitcher (4-6), but was a vastly superior hurler to the one that showed up in the first half (3.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP... gaudy 127/106 strikeouts to innings pitched ratio). Admittedly, this fifth round selection is conservative in my eyes, but it's the most realistic spot that Wood will go. The key is his control, as the most telling statistic between his first and second halves is that he walked 63 in 107 innings in the first half and walked just 32 in 106 innings in the second. If he truly has his command down, look out.... Wood's a first or second rounder.

Despite an early blowup which eventually landed him on the DL, Wade Miller was clearly one of the top seven starters in the National League last year. He'll never be quite the strikeout threat that his teammate (Oswalt) is in Houston, but Miller has established himself over the past two seasons as a pitcher who can be counted on for a low three ERA with about 175 strikeouts. With an offense like the Astros have, he should challenge twenty wins every year.

Mariano Rivera has slipped.... all the way to third on our closer rankings. The perrennial #1 closer selected entering 2002 finally wore down and took his first two trips to the DL late last season, but should be back and ready to dominate again for the Yanks in 2003. Expect 40 saves and a mid-to-high two ERA with a WHIP right around 1.00. Although Rivera is one of few closers who aren't dominant strikeout pitchers, his other numbers still separate him from the rest, and he should go slightly before the first big closer run starts in the next two rounds.

Wearing down? Nearing the end of a brilliant career? Somebody forgot to tell Greg Maddux that on his way to the retirement home. Maddux did fail to pitch over 200 innings for just the second time in his sixteen year career last year, but he's still one of the dominant pitchers in the league. He still has that pinpoint control that has helped him succeed for so long in this league, and he kept the ball down as well as he has in the past three seasons. Don't expect Maddux to give what he used to in fantasy leagues, but expect a mid-to-high two ERA with a WHIP around 1.15 and 15-18 wins. Don't bank on him for more than 140 strikeouts, which is the predominant reason that Maddux won't go any higher.

Billy Wagner
Robb Nen
Derek Lowe
Bartolo Colon
Troy Percival
Jason Schmidt

Expect the closer runs to start somewhere during this round, with Wagner, Nen, and Percival all leaving the board as guys who provide very similar numbers.... the norm on these closers is 40 saves with 90-100 strikeouts, a solid high two ERA, and WHIPs around 1.10.

Converted closer Lowe will probably go higher in many drafts, but isn't a dominant strikeout pitcher (just 127 last season) and still doesn't seem like he's adjusted to the fact that he'll throw 200 innings a season. He wore down and was average in late August and September last season. Lowe should still be a solid second tier starter, but putting him among the elite is a mistake.

Bartolo Colon is the most likely starter to join the elite here, as he's coming off of a monster 20-8 season that also saw him post the best secondary numbers of his career. The big question is his strikeout total, as he sacrificed 50 strikeouts last season in exchange for his other fantastic numbers. Entering last season, he had fanned over 200 batters two years running. With a tremendous offense behind him now for the White Sox, Colon could easily give third round value here.

Many of you may be scratching your head right now, but Jason Schmidt is prepared to take a giant leap towards becoming a lower tier fantasy ace this season. After an awkward start in 2002, Schmidt dominated over the last five months of the season and should continue to benefit from Pac Bell Park in 2003. The thirty year old is just hitting his prime and is a Schilling-clone who is an absolute bulldog on the hill. Expect nothing short of 18 wins with a low three ERA, and expect him to finally break over that 200 strikeout hump this season.

Mark Buehrle
Keith Foulke
Mark Prior
Mike Mussina
Javier Vazquez
Armando Benitez
Billy Koch

Continuing the closer run, Keith Foulke, Armando Benitez, and Billy Koch should all leave the board around here. Foulke has the highest risk, as he lost the closer's job in Chicago last season, but he also has the highest reward, as he rarely gets into trouble. All three should at least sniff 40 saves on solid teams and post strong secondary numbers with over a strikeout per inning. Foulke will have the lowest WHIP and ERA of the three, but he'll also have the lowest strikeout totals.

Mark Buehrle is going in the first five rounds of most drafts that I've seen, and despite his 35 wins in his first two seasons, it's a crime. Buehrle has tremendous control and is a tremendous starter on any baseball team, but he's not the fantasy ace that should be going in the first five rounds. With a great offense behind him, and (perhaps more importantly) a true ace to help him at the top of the rotation such as Bartolo Colon, Buehrle shouldn't have to work quite as much this season. A less turbulent bullpen will also keep him from having to work as late in games as he has the last two seasons, which should, in turn, help his ERA and WHIP a bit. Regardless, he's a lower tier starter in terms of strikeouts, and that really needs to knock his value down a touch. Over his first two full seasons, Buehrle has struck out an average of just 130 batters a year, including 134 in 239 innings last year.

Now we'll get to the third, and final, Marx Brother, who should be excluded from my earlier comment. Prior was truly a freak of nature last season, as he burst onto the scene with 147 strikeouts against 38 walks in just 116 innings (yes, you read that right.... he struck out 13 more batters than Buehrle in less than half the innings). Prior is ahead of the curve in all aspects of the game, and will only get better as he begins his first full season in the majors in 2003. Expect a high two ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and 15-18 wins along with astonishing strikeout numbers. By the 2004 season, Prior and fellow youngster Josh Beckett (more on him in a minute) could already be joining the Unit, Pedro, and Schilling at the top.

Mike Mussina finally figured out how he's supposed to threaten 20 wins. He's supposed to have the worst secondary numbers of his career, but make sure he's wearing pinstripes. Moose is far from over the hill, and is a consistent 200 strikeout bulldog. If he can keep the ball from clearing the short Yankee Stadium porch as often as it did last year, Mussina should return to the low-to-mid three ERA pitcher that we all know and love.... and hey, he just might finally win 20.

Many describe last year's performance by Javier Vazquez as disappointing, myself included. When you look at the numbers as a whole, though, it's not a fair assessment. Vazquez still struck out nearly 200 batters and had an awful hiccup in August that killed his overall numbers, but is a legitimate fantasy #2 entering 2003. If he can return to the track that he was on before the hiccup, Vazquez could be on his way to becoming the next Pedro Martinez, and he's just about to enter his prime.

Tom Glavine
A.J. Burnett
Randy Wolf
Josh Beckett
Matt Clement
Odalis Perez
Eddie Guardado

Glavine is still an upper tier starter who is an asset to any fantasy team outside of the lack of strikeouts. He should win 15-18 more in New York this season while keeping a low three ERA and a WHIP in the 1.25 range with 120 strikeouts.

Beckett is the sleeper on this list, as he's quite capable of surpassing Prior and Oswalt as the best young gun in baseball. Although he was hampered by blisters for most of the year, Beckett could easily become a consistent 250 strikeout pitcher who could challenge 20 wins with a mid two ERA every year. Command has been an issue early on in his big league career, but he'll turn just 23 a month into the season and is a legit ace if he gets that down. Pro Player keeps a lot more balls in the yard, too.

Randy Wolf belongs higher in the draft if he can put a whole season together, but is as dominant a second half starter as there is in the league. Wolf turned in his best full season campaign last year and shaved half a point off of his ERA for the second consecutive season. He's a quality strikeout pitcher as well and showed vast improvement over his command late in the year. Just entering his prime at 26, Wolf could be in line for a breakout season... it's all a matter of pitching well early.

Speaking of dominant strikeout pitchers, Matt Clement finally seems to have gotten an idea of what the strike zone looks like. Touted as a top prospect for years, Clement started 2002 with his third team in three seasons. He has front-line stuff and held hitters to a .189 average last season for the Cubbies, but his control issues still left him with a 1.20 WHIP when all was said and done. Regardless, he walked the same amount of batters (85) in 2002 as he did in 2001.... the only difference was that he threw almost 40 more innings. Oh.... and there is that little fact that he struck out 215.

Little known fact: Odalis Perez had the fourth lowest WHIP among starters in the major leagues last season, behind Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, and Curt Schilling. He also maintained a solid 3.00 ERA and will return to pitch in one of the best pitcher's parks in the league this season. So why is he ranked this low? Perez has a long history of arm injuries, including Tommy John Surgery a few years back, and isn't a huge strikeout pitcher. Expect him to put up something similar to last season's numbers, though he should drop off a bit with his secondary numbers. Bank on 17 wins, a low three ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP with 150+ strikeouts.

A.J. Burnett was the poster boy for Jeff Torborg's pitcher abuse last season. He threw over 100 pitches in 70% of his starts last season, and threw over 130 pitches eight times. In the end, he finished third in the league in complete games (despite missing his last six starts) with seven and led the league in shutouts with five. Burnett has fantastic strikeout potential and is unhittable when he's on. He does have a lot of control issues, though. Even when he burst onto the scene by throwing a no-hitter in his first start of 2001, he walked eight.

Everyday Eddie Guardado should close out the closer's run for a while. He's the last closer guaranteed to have a shot at 40 saves who will provide anything decent with his secondary numbers. Don't expect a lot of strikeouts, but expect him to throw more than most of the closers in the league. Competitiveness is the key for Guardado.

Jarrod Washburn
Brad Penny
Joel Pineiro
Freddy Garcia

OK... Give me a break... I'm running out of things that start with the letter "N", and it's late ;)

Washburn established himself as a solid #2 fantasy starter last season when he finally put it together and had a good second half to complement his great first half. He doesn't have a dominant fastball, but he changes speed on it better than any pitcher I've ever seen, and he rarely throws anything else. Wash is a bulldog on the mound who will continue to succeed as long as he remains deceptive. Fooling hitters is the key. Expect him to win 15-18 again with a mid three ERA and a nice 1.20 WHIP. He doesn't strike out enough hitters to be anything more than a mid-range #2 starter.

The most intriguing pitcher on this list is still Brad Penny, who has great potential as a four category starter. In his third season in the league, Penny struggled last season with shoulder injuries and never really got on track. If he's completely healthy this season, Penny is a safe bet to finish the year with a mid three ERA and a WHIP in the 1.2 range while striking out 170 batters. Wins may be an issue with a weak offense behind him in Florida.

Joel Pineiro and Freddy Garcia top our list of Mariners starters, and each belong towards the end of the first ten rounds. Pineiro has the stuff and the potential to become the M's ace in the next couple of seasons, and may actually earn that distinction in 2003, but Garcia is a far bigger threat in (again) the strikeout category. All of the innings that Garcia has thrown in his short big league career caught up with him late last season, and he won't put up quite the secondary numbers that Pineiro does. When all's said and done, look for numbers in this range:
Pineiro: 15-18 wins, 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 140 strikeouts
Garcia: 15-18 wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 180 strikeouts

Byung-Hyun Kim
Al Leiter
C.C. Sabathia
Brian Lawrence
Rodrigo Lopez

Kim belongs much higher in the draft if he had a defined role, but enters Spring Training as a potential starter. As a closer last season, Kim was arguably the third best closer in the National League, behind Gagne and Smoltz. His freaky submarine delivery helped him close out 36 games and notch 92 strikeouts in 84 innings while holding the league to a .187 average. Throw in a 2.04 ERA, and you have yourself a keeper in an end-game situation. Should he win a rotation spot, Kim could be huge in strikeout leagues, but may falter towards the end of the year because of fatigue.

Al Leiter is Mr. Dependable. You know you'll see about 15 wins out of him with a mid three ERA and a 1.25 WHIP or so, but he's not a top tier guy. With Tom Glavine helping him out atop the Mets rotation, look for him to put together a season closer to 2000 than he did in 2001 or 2002, and he could approach 200 strikeouts.

C.C. Sabathia has all the potential in the world, and actually followed up his solid rookie campaign by posting virtually the same numbers in 2002. Expect him to shave half a point off of his 4.37 ERA from last season, and expect him to see about 17 wins in Cleveland, rebuilding or not. Sabathia should be a decent player in strikeout leagues as well, and he won't hurt you anywhere. Now, if he could just try and get in shape, he could take the next step.

Rodrigo Lopez doesn't blow people away, but he's deceptive and keeps hitters off balance enough so that he's successful. Not really expected to compete for a roster spot at the start of the season, Lopez finished the season as the Orioles ace and led the team in wins (15), ERA (3.57), and WHIP (1.19). Look for the 27 year old to put up similar numbers this season, as he's just entering his prime. Just don't expect much more than 140 strikeouts from him.

Brian Lawrence is the most ready-made of the Padres tremendous group of young starters. Like Lopez, he survives with his control, but was more productive as a strikeout pitcher than you'd expect (149). He relies on a lot of groundball outs, and keeps the ball down extremely well. His WHIP should stick in the 1.30 range for a few more years unless he takes some sort of strange step up, and his ERA should stay in the mid threes. As the Pads try and develop a young offense and a young defense around him, Lawrence should get better in the next few seasons.