The Hook

Jeff Weaver
Kris Benson
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Ugueth Urbina

All that Weaver needs to fully warrant a selection in the first six or seven rounds is a definite starting spot. His presence on the mound is phenomenal, and he has terrific stuff to complement his demeanor. On the downside, he does slip this far despite being in pinstripes because of the abundance of starters that Steinbrenner has gone out and bought. He'll most likely break camp as the #5 guy in the rotation and will be looking over his shoulder at Jose Contreras all season. That said, Weaver should be picked ahead of all Yankee starters not named Mike Mussina, as he's the second best starter they have at this point in all of their careers.

Kris Benson has been mentioned as a prime sleeper two years running, and he finally started panning out at the midway point last season. Once considered among the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, he's taken a long time to fully recover from Tommy John surgery a few years back, but he has top of the rotation stuff. The best thing about Benson is that many a fantasy owner have been burned in the past with the hope that he'd return to form right away, and they'll most likely shy away from him. In 2004, he may be going in the first five or six rounds, just like Weaver.

Sasaki will slip a bit farther than he should because of offseason surgery that he had on his pitching elbow. Though he didn't come over to America until he was already 32 years old, Sasaki has quickly established himself as one of the top ten closers in the league, notching an average of 40 saves in his first three seasons. As you expect from your closer, he will strike out a batter or more per inning, and he'll keep a solid ERA in the 3.10 range. Don't bank on a repeat of last season's career year, though. At 35, he should start to decline a little bit over the next few years.

Many will shy away from Ugueth Urbina because of his move to Texas, and still others will avoid him because they thought he was disappointing last season in Boston. Don't make that mistake. Maybe I'm missing something, but there's not that much to be disappointed about when your closer has 40 saves, an ERA of 3.00, and 10.65 strikeouts per nine innings. Despite the fact that he does give up a few too many longballs, he should be fine in Texas if the bullpen can get it to him. Look for 35+ saves again with solid secondary numbers.

Ramon Ortiz
Hideo Nomo
Andy Pettitte
Woody Williams
Jason Isringhausen
Mike Williams
Scott Williamson

This is around the area of the draft where you can expect a lot of teams to start loading up on mid-range #2 starters and #3 starters in the hopes of finding a gem. For the most part, this round is chock full of safer picks in that area, but it should start getting a little more hectic in a round or two.

Ramon Ortiz proved last season that, even if he is a few years older than everyone thought he was, he's got the stuff to be a front-line starter in this league for the next few years. If he could learn to keep the ball in the park, he'd be a legit ace in many fantasy leagues, and his track record indicates that could happen. Despite giving up a league high 40 homers (as opposed to 25 in 2001 in nine fewer innings), Ortiz shaved over half a point off of his ERA. His command looked vastly improved, and his strikeouts were up while his walks were down. If he can resume throwing like he did last season and make a few less mistakes, Ortiz could have a breakthrough year.

Hideo Nomo is fine as long as he's in Los Angeles. His return to the Dodgers last season was a renaissance that brought him all the way back to his first two seasons in the league. He should challenge the 200 strikeout mark as usual, but he may also threaten his teammate (Ishii) for the league lead in walks again. Look for his ERA to rise closer to his career ERA, which is just under 4, but expect a solid season.

If you read this column religiously, you'll know that I usually push strikeouts as a huge category for fantasy starters, but be prepared for the exception. After trying to fan the entire league to (somewhat) disappointing results for a few seasons, Andy Pettitte accepted the fact that he's not a big strikeout pitcher last season and returned to form. For pitchers like Pettitte, this is how they should be pitching.... within their limits. He's fantastic at what he does, and when he's ahead in the count, he can still make hitters look foolish from time to time. While this makes him a #3 fantasy starter at best (put a cap at about 135 strikeouts), he's about as good as any #3 in the league.

Woody Williams was never much more than a #3 starter in fantasy leagues before he came to St. Louis, but he's pitched like a fantasy ace when healthy with the Cardinals. The key phrase, though, is when healthy. Williams missed a lot of time last season due to a recurring problem around his ribcage, and it's hoped that he'll be 100% healthy and ready to go for the Cards this season. You should assume that he'll be fine if you're drafting him around here. Bank on a high 2 ERA with 15-18 wins if he's 100%. He's a solid, but unspectacular strikeout pitcher who should end up in the 150-160 range.

Jason Isringhausen has a long and storied history of arm trouble, and it will force him to miss about the first month of the season. If he's completely ready to go and doesn't miss any time after April (he did hit the DL twice last season and has had surgery seven times during his career), Izzy should still be looking at a 30+ save season with great secondary numbers.

Mike Williams seems to be the sleeper closer of the draft every year, as he always starts out hot. From 1999 to 2001, Williams posted three consecutive 20+ save seasons for the lowly Pirates before busting out with a monster 46 save 2002. Expect him to stay closer to the 30-35 save mark this season, but count on another season of quality secondary numbers as a closer who outproduces his draft position.

Danny Graves has finally moved to the rotation, and that opens the door for Scott Williamson to establish himself as one of the top ten to fifteen closers in the majors. Williamson has flat out filthy stuff outside of a pedestrian fastball, and should thrive in the role. Expect a lot of high-scoring bloodbaths in The Great American Ballpark this season, but Williamson should still see enough close games to notch 30 saves.

Octavio Dotel
Danys Baez
Jose Jimenez
Jorge Julio
Ben Sheets
Roger Clemens
Oliver Perez
Vicente Padilla
Paul Byrd

Don't expect many save opportunities from Dotel, as Wagner isn't going anywhere. That said, his secondary numbers, durability, and amazing strikeout totals make him the clear #1 middle reliever taken, well ahead of many closers. Dotel never really flourished as a starter, so the chances of him acquiring a different role aren't very good unless Wagner suffers an injury. Bank on a low 2 ERA with a WHIP under 1 and 100+ strikeouts in a middle relief role. He'll sneak a few wins in there, too.

Danys Baez has been moved back to the bullpen, and should establish himself as a quality closer for years by the 2004 season. Upon his return to the 'pen last season, Baez struggled a bit, but his stuff is as filthy as anyone's. Now that he can concentrate on bearing down in short bursts, look for an Eric Gagne like season, minus about 20 saves. The Tribe just doesn't have enough help to get the game to him much this season.

The only Rockies pitcher really worth a pick before the late rounds is Jimenez, who will threaten to repeat his 41 save 2002 season. As he doesn't have to pitch a whole lot of innings in that pitcher's prison, his numbers don't blow up. Throw in 35 saves or so and a strikeout an inning, and he's a solid closer, no matter where he's pitching.

Jorge Julio won the Orioles closing job ahead of schedule last season and won't relinquish it for quite some time. The 24-year-old righty has a top notch fastball and good mound presence. As long as he doesn't have to close games against the Devil Rays (Ironically, he was lit up in his 10 outings against the league's worst team), he should be a fine second closer on most teams. Don't bet on the 1.99 ERA that he had last season, but he should lower his WHIP and increase his strikeouts as he develops better command of his pitches.

Ben Sheets joins Richie Sexson as one of few bright spots for the Brewers entering the 2003 season. Sheets has looked solid in his first two seasons as the Brewers ace, and could be sitting on a breakthrough season if his offense can give him any kind of support. Then again, we're talking about Milwaukee, where the most exciting part of the game is the sausage race. Expect him to drop his ERA below 4 this season, but don't expect him to win more than 13-16 games.

Roger Clemens is nearing the end of a brilliant career, and while he's still a fantastic starter on a great team, his age knocks his value down. Despite winning 13 games in 2002, his ERA was well above 4, and this is a trend that should continue in 2003. He'll lock up his 300th win and probably hang 'em up at the end of the year. Anything less than 13-16 wins with a mid 4 ERA and a 1.4 WHIP with 180 strikeouts will be a disappointment. He's solid this late, but he seems to be slipping this far.

On the other side of the coin is the youngest starter in the major leagues, Oliver Perez. Perez was just plain nasty on hitters in San Diego last year, and should only improve. His command seems to be an issue (48 walks in 90 innings last season), but he has the potential to fan 200+ with solid secondary numbers. 2004 would be a much more likely time for him to truly emerge as a front-line starter.

Vicente Padilla and Paul Byrd each shocked the world a bit last season, and both appear to be on the way to solid follow-up seasons in the NL East in 2003. Padilla and Byrd each thrive on control as a huge part of their game, and neither will strike out more than 140 hitters, but both will keep solid WHIP and ERA numbers while earning 14-17 victories. Nothing special, but decent guys to have in the middle of the rotation.

Jamie Moyer
Eric Milton
Russ Ortiz
Damian Moss
Tomokazu Ohka
Joe Kennedy
Kevin Brown
Adam Eaton
Jose Mesa

Moyer is one of those pitchers who has just gotten better with age. Over the last two seasons, at the age of 39 and 40, Moyer has posted possibly his best two years in the league. Don't expect a repeat of the nearly 150 strikeouts that he had last season, but look for him to keep on throwing junk and fooling hitters to keep his ERA and WHIP down. With a solid offense behind him in Seattle, he could win 15-18 games again.

Eric Milton still has worlds of potential, and he keeps on turning in solid win totals year after year. The question is this, though.... will he ever harness his potential and become the front-line starter he should be? While he finally learned to keep the ball in the park last season, he still ended up with an astronomically high 4.84 ERA (actually, that's just .04 above his career ERA) which is pretty much unacceptable out of anything higher than a #4 starter. In five seasons, Milton has never struck out more than 163 hitters and has the aforementioned 4.80 ERA, meaning he should be treated like what he is.... a lower tier #3/upper tier #4 starter.

Russ Ortiz's opposition should have more fun against him now that he's out of Pac Bell. While he's still a quality #3/#4 fantasy starter outside of San Francisco, his control will always remain an issue, and his ERA was nearly a point and a half higher on the road last season than it was at home. Look for Ortiz to struggle a bit in Atlanta, and don't treat him like the fantasy #2 he was in a Giants uniform.

While Damian Moss may not have Tom Glavine to mentor him anymore, he couldn't have walked into a better situation. He'll now join the defending NL champs in the best pitcher's park in all of baseball. Moss should have little trouble duplicating last season's phenomenal rookie campaign in his new surroundings, and could actually improve on it if he pitches with better command. His 111/89 strikeout to walk ratio is pretty scary, but he's almost unhittable when he's on.

Tomokazu Ohka busted out bigtime with the Expos last season, and was in many ways their second best starter behind Bartolo Colon. At just 26, he should be entering his prime years and should be able to duplicate something in the same range for the next five years or so. Bank on 13-16 wins with a mid 3 ERA and a solid WHIP in the 1.3 range.... just don't count on a lot of strikeouts.

Joe Kennedy followed up his solid rookie season by putting up similar numbers in his second campaign. As he continues his trial by fire as the Devil Rays ace, Kennedy should improve and become a bit more consistent in his third season. Here's to hoping that Piniella doesn't decide to force him as deep into games as Hal McRae did last season, as Kennedy led the team in complete games with five at the age of 23.

Adam Eaton didn't look so hot upon his return from surgery last season, but finished strong and has all the potential in the world to become a fantasy #2. He's a solid strikeout pitcher in a pitcher's park who could be in line for a breakout in the middle of the Padres rotation. Anything shy of 13 wins with a low 4 ERA and 170 strikeouts would be disappointing. Don't bank on a fast start.

Even at his advanced age, Kevin Brown is the best pitcher in this round, as he would belong in the first two or three rounds of the draft if he was guaranteed a clean bill of health. The problem? Brown has made all of 29 starts in the last two seasons, and constantly seems to be on the DL merry-go-round. Expect to get about 20 starts out of Brown this season, and he could win 12 of them with great secondary numbers.

Jose Mesa has put together the quietest back to back 40 save seasons in recent memory, and that could be because he's a pretty average secondary pitcher. Mesa's ERA and WHIP will be in the bottom 10 among closers yet again this season, but he should once again challenge the 40 save plateau on the re-tooled Phillies.

Ted Lilly
Jon Garland
Rick Reed
Brad Radke
Antonio Alfonseca

Ted Lilly will finally have a definite starting spot locked up entering camp this season in Oakland, and should have a solid season as the #4 for the defending AL West Champs. He's another good control pitcher who won't put up gaudy strikeout totals, but should end up keeping his ERA in the high 3 range with a solid WHIP to boot. Throw in 14 wins and he's a safe pick as an average #3.

Garland should be ready to bust out this season as the #3 for the White Sox. He doesn't seem like he'll ever be a big strikeout pitcher, but he has the tools to win 15+ games with a tremendous offense behind him. Be careful out of the gate, as Garland was awful right out of Spring (6.33 ERA in April) and right after the All-Star game last season (8.00 ERA in July), but he was money the rest of the way, keeping his ERA below four in every other month. Garland was particularly good down the stretch last season, going 4-4 with a 3.3 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in August and September.

Reed and Radke are both solid but unspectacular control pitchers on a defending division champ. Neither will blow you away with their strikeout totals, but they'll both impress with solid WHIP and nice win totals. Reed has always had a knack for keeping his ERA in the mid threes, while Radke has never quite lived up to the hype surrounding him but is capable of matching Reed.

Antonio Alfonseca was hot out of the gate last year, but absolutely disappeared (along with the rest of his team) when the Cubs hit their typical June Swoon. It was found out in the offseason that there was a very good excuse for his poor performance after the break, but he's never been a great secondary pitcher anyway. Take 30 saves to the bank, but definitely don't count on him as a #1 closer.

Joe Mays
Tony Armas, Jr.
Sidney Ponson
Danny Graves
Tim Wakefield
Elmer Dessens
Francisco Rodriguez
Johan Santana

Provided that Mays is healthy, he may be the best starter a fantasy team can get from the Twins. He has mediocre strikeout potential, but was one of the top fifteen starters in the league in 2001. Mays is nearly unhittable when he's on, and has tremendous control to boot. So long as he keeps the ball down, he should be OK. The surgery that he's coming off of after last season is the same surgery that he had prior to the 2001 season, which was when he absolutely busted out, so don't be shocked if he's not as affected by the injury as many owners think he will be.

Tony Armas, Jr. represents the biggest strikeout pitcher who is guaranteed a starting job on the board at this point, and that bumps him up a few notches. He's not a huge K guy, but he should challenge 170 and lower his ERA back to his typical low four range after a subpar 2002 campaign. Look out for him to win 13-16 games in the middle of the Expos rotation.

Sidney Ponson, again, represents a fairly big strikeout pitcher this late, and is entering his walk year with the O's. Already coming off of his best season in the majors, Ponson could bust out and improve just a little bit more by lowering his walk total and striking out a few more hitters. A high 3 ERA isn't out of the question with 12-15 wins and 150+ strikeouts as he enters his prime years.

Danny Graves could be this year's Derek Lowe. Much like Lowe, he was never a big strikeout pitcher when he was closing ballgames, and he's started when he was in the minors. He did pretty well in a trial as a starter last season, and has the mentality to succeeed as a starter. Expect his arm to wear down a bit towards the end of the year, but expect solid #4 starter numbers across the board. A 4.00 ERA and 10-12 wins would actually be a bit of a letdown.

Wakefield is the prototype of diversity among pitchers. He's fine with whatever role he's given, and (like many knucklers) he's durable and can start one day and throw out of the 'pen on two or three days rest. This year, he'll finally have a defined role in Beantown as the Sox' #3 starter, and he should flourish. Expect a mid 3 ERA and 12+ wins for Wakefield.

Elmer Dessens had, by far, his best year in the league if you just look at his secondary numbers, but his win total was cut in half last season with the Reds. Now in Arizona, he has the NL's best offense backing him and should be able to throw hitters off balance after they've struggled to keep up with Johnson and Schilling before facing him. Don't bet on him finishing in the top ten in ERA again, but expect a mid-to-high 3 ERA and a huge boost in his win total to 15 or so.

Francisco Rodriguez was the name on everyone's lips last October when he led the Angels through the first two rounds of the playoffs in the middle innings. He'll come back for his first full season and has enormous strikeout potential for the Angels. Within the next two seasons, expect him to move to the closer's role, but as long as Troy Percival's in his way, Rodriguez has solid value as a setup man. He could be the next Mariano Rivera.

Johan Santana will shuttle back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, depending upon how healthy the Twins rotation is. Santana has fantastic strikeout potential and good control, and should net 10+ wins as he moves around from station to station.

* With all of the pitchers fitting into these last few rounds, I'm going to cut this a bit and focus on fewer of the players more often.

David Wells
Chan Ho Park
John Lackey
Kip Wells
Josh Fogg
John Patterson
Kirk Rueter
Jason Marquis
Mike Dejean
Scott Stewart
Kelvim Escobar

David Wells remains a risk purely because he seems to decide how well he wants to pitch. If he chooses to remain focused, Wells is a solid #2, but he's been a headcase throughout his career.

Chan Ho Park needs to prove that he's healthy, and he needs to prove that last year was a fluke. Don't bet on it, and don't expect any of the owners in your league to bet on it earlier than this either.

Lackey, (Kip) Wells, Fogg, Marquis, and Patterson are all young guns who should continue to improve a bit in the next few seasons. The most likely to break out of these pitchers would be Wells, who is entering his third full season and put together a solid full season last year. Lackey is, of course, coming off of his victory in Game Seven of the World Series, but will be entering his first full season in a big league rotation. Patterson has a world of potential, and has learned to get hitters out effectively despite surgery earlier in his career which hurt his fastball. Fogg and Marquis are solid and safe at this point, but unspectacular.

Escobar, Stewart, and Dejean will all begin the season as their respective teams' closer, but none are really safe picks. Many of the closers that last this long have question marks hovering over their heads, so this should be less than surprising. Escobar has been rumored to be on the block for almost a year now, with Cliff Politte waiting in the wings. Neither Stewart nor Dejean really have "closer stuff", but are both closing with their teams because they're the best current options. T.J. Tucker, Joey Eischen, and Luis Vizcaino may have something to say about that before the year's up.

Alan Embree
Jay Witasick
Matt Mantei
Braden Looper
Matt Anderson
Franklyn German
Orlando Hernandez
Jake Peavy
Bret Myers
Kyle Lohse

Let the run on speculative closers and bigtime prospects commence!

Embree highlights the closer selections available in this round, since he should see just about all of the closing situations that call for a lefty in Boston. While he's never really had an opportunity to close on a full-time basis, Embree has proven over the past few seasons that he's solid in the middle of games, and the Sox' new brass doesn't want to waste the money that it takes to get a full-time closer.

Mantei will return to the closer's role that he lost due to injury a few years back, but if Byung-Hyun Kim struggles in the rotation or Mantei fizzles at the end of the game, Kim may have to move back to the role.

Anderson will start the season as the Tigers' closer, but his injury history and the presence of Franklyn German leave a lot of question marks surrounding him. He could be gone by midseason even if he stays healthy and busts out of the gate strong.

Looper finished the year strong last season, but the trade for Tim Spooneybarger in the offseason makes it look like the Marlins are planning to go in a different direction. Looper should break camp as the closer, and may hold onto the job all season, but eventually, Spooneybarger will be closing in Florida.

Witasick leads the speculative closer list in San Diego, where they'll be without their most recognizable player, Trevor Hoffman, this season. He's been great over the past two seasons with the Padres and Giants, and should handle the role fairly well if he wins it, but rumors have the Padres talking to Todd Jones.

Orlando Hernandez put together a solid couple of seasons with the Yankees, but isn't worth top dollar in fantasy leagues. He doesn't strike enough hitters out, and he's not the most durable guy in the world. El Duque should put together a solid year with the Expos as their #4 starter, and could win 12+ games if everything breaks right (and he doesn't break).

Kyle Lohse didn't take long to bust out in the major leagues, and established himself as a guy who could be a capable #3 fantasy starter for years. Based on his team, (Lohse is usually the seventh pitcher taken from the Twins in the fantasy drafts I've seen this season) Lohse is slipping way under the radar and may actually drop this far in the draft. If he does, snatch him up.

Brett Myers and Jake Peavy highlight the young gun brigade of the round, as each were solid in trials with the big club last season and should have full time jobs in the rotation this year. Don't expect either of them to succeed right out of the gate, but they're good picks this late in the draft who have tremendous upside and could surprise. Look for them higher in 2004.

Kirk Rueter
Mark Redman
Mike Hampton
Cory Lidle
Steve Trachsel
J.C. Romero

Expect a bit of a lull in the pitching spots in this round, as most teams will start focusing on filling their final positional spots for a round or two and try for sleepers and guys who will stabilize the remainder of their staff after the twentieth round. Redman, Lidle, and Hampton represent our All U-Haul Squad.

Redman shouldn't see much of an effect from the change in venues this season, with the exception of the fact that he'll have a better offensive club behind him. While Comerica is a fly ball pitcher's dream, Pro Player is one of the better pitcher's parks in the league also, and he shouldn't have to worry about his ERA skyrocketing. He doesn't strike out a whole lot of hitters, and his win total will be mediocre again with the Marlins, but it should rise a bit.

Hampton has been my favorite pitcher to pick on all offseason, as he's being touted as one of the better sleepers in the draft by many fantasy owners. Everything there is to say about him has been said already, but the most disturbing tidbit that should make fantasy owners avoid him is this: 74/91... his strikeout to walk ratio last season.

Despite the fact that he's leaving a division champ and one of the better pitcher's parks in the AL, Corey Lidle should do well in Skydome. Why? For lack of a better reason, he knows he's going to have a job. Lidle constantly had to look over his shoulder when he was in Oakland, and pitched pretty well despite that fact. Now that he can concentrate on bearing down and getting hitters out, he should continue to succeed even though he doesn't quite have the team behind him.

Trachsel and Rueter are dependable winners who always slip below the radar because they're not really flashy. Neither will win any category by themselves in a fantasy league, but they're solid #5 fantasy starters who won't hurt a team.

J.C. Romero won't produce like he did in the ERA or win category last year, but he should post another solid season as he prepares for Eddie Guardado's departure. Romero's a solid strikeout guy who should pick up a handful of saves and a handful of wins as a middle man.

Damaso Marte
Luis Vizcaino
Mike MacDougal
Tim Spooneybarger
Omar Daal
Brandon Duckworth
Kazuhisa Ishii
Jason Jennings
Pedro Astacio

Marte lost the closer job that he earned last season when the White Sox went out and traded for Billy Koch in the offseason, but he still has fantasy value as a setup man who could win a handful of games while keeping decent secondary numbers and striking out a ton of hitters.

Spooneybarger and Vizcaino are the heir apparents to the closer's role with their teams, and could end up closing as soon as midseason. Grab them late, as neither will hurt your numbers in any category and their value goes through the roof if they win the job.

Mike MacDougal should win a vacant closer's job for the Royals, but the rest of the Royals staff may keep the team from winning 30 games this year, much less giving him 30 save opportunities. Still, any closer has a little value.

Daal heads to Baltimore, where he'll be their first lefty starter since 1998. His numbers have been respectable over the past two seasons, and he could do well early against many of the AL hitters who haven't seen him before. Unfortunately, he just doesn't really have the stuff to consistently get hitters out without the aid of a friendly park or a great defense. He's not a bad reserve, but is kind of weak as a #5.

Duckworth has huge strikeout potential if he manages to win a spot in the Phils rotation out of Spring, and could end up turning the corner in the next year or two to become one of the more dominant hurlers in the league. He did get shelled last season, though, and he's not guaranteed a spot.

Jason Jennings will try to build on his Rookie of the Year campaign from last season. The wins could continue to pile up with a tremendous offense behind him in Coors, but there's that word again..... why does it scare so many fantasy owners?????

To the astute fantasy owner, Kazuhisa Ishii's second half meltdown wasn't really much of a surprise. He did, after all, lead the league in walks despite missing his final five starts after fracturing his skull. Ishii could be a solid #5, and could be better if he had any idea how to hit the strike zone. Don't risk grabbing him any higher, as nobody really knows how he'll react to being on the mound again.

Astacio's second half collapse, on the other hand, was a bit of a shocker. He flat out fell off the face of the earth once August hit (7.00 ERA in the second half), and there wasn't any particular reason that he did. Unless you're clued in to something I don't know, I'd avoid him like the plague.