The Hook

Kevin Appier
Andy Ashby
Brett Tomko
John Burkett
Ismael Valdes
Brian Anderson
Livan Hernandez
Jason Bere
Shane Reynolds
Glendon Rusch
Jimmy Haynes
Shawn Estes

As you may or may not notice, the majority of the pitchers on this list are veterans who are sure things to start. None of them are going to blow anyone away or carry a category, and the chances are very unlikely that any one pitcher from this list will shatter everyone's expectations. The best actual pitcher on this list is Rusch, who could be a solid contributor if he was on a halfway decent ballclub. Still, he's on the Brewers and can be penciled in to put up a typical season with an ERA around 4 and 10-12 wins, just like the rest of this group.

Projections will vary a bit with all of these players, but figure on something extremely close to: 11 wins, 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 130 strikeouts for every player on this list.

Runelvys Hernandez
Casey Fossum
Carlos Zambrano
Dan Wright
Tim Redding
Dewon Brazelton
Jeriome Robertson
Jessie Foppert
Jimmy Journell
Rick Ankiel

Runelvys Hernandez will most likely produce around what the "safe" picks around here would produce, but could have a great season in Kansas City if he gets enough bullpen support. He won't likely get a whole lot of wins, but should be a solid secondary pitcher this late who should get plenty of strikeouts and keep solid ratios.

Casey Fossum looked great in his trial with the Sox last season and should strike out about a batter an inning. He should also get plenty of wins with the Sox and is an excellent candidate to establish himself as a #3 fantasy starter by the end of the season.

Carlos Zambrano also has huge strikeout potential, but is a bit wild at this early stage of his career. If he can pin down his control a bit, Zambrano could be looking at some decent secondary numbers with a ton of strikeouts. He shouldn't be counting on his offense to help him post more than 10 wins though.

Everyone remembers the whole Rick Ankiel saga, but he should pitch out of the bullpen for the Cardinals this season. Given that the Cards have little after Matt Morris and Woody Williams (each of whom hit the DL last season), if Ankiel can prove that he's got his head in order, he could perform like an ace. Journell could be up by midseason because of the same problem, though he has proven to be frail himself throughout his minor league career.

Speaking of NL Central position battles, Tim Redding and Jeriome Robertson continue to battle it out for the #5 spot in the Astros rotation, and either could produce plenty of wins if they win the role. Redding was once considered the best prospect in a deep system, but has never lived up to the hype on the major league level. Robertson has been very good this Spring, and is currently the favorite for the job.

Dan Wright struggled last year in his first full season at the major league level, but did lead a young White Sox staff in strikeouts. He's widely considered the top pitching prospect in the organization, and won 14 games despite poor secondary numbers last year.

Dewon Brazelton will most likely end up in the trial by fire plan that the Devil Rays love so much. He doesn't look like he's ready to be starting at the major league level yet, but should be solid a couple of years down the road. If you draft him, hope for him to develop ahead of schedule.

Foppert and Ainsworth are two of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but each will struggle to make the Giants rotation out of Spring. If you plan to bet on one for this season, make it Ainsworth, who has a much better shot at winning the spot. Foppert will be huge in strikeout leagues, possibly as soon as 2004.

Carl Pavano
Gil Meche
Dustin Hermanson
Garrett Stephenson
Pat Hentgen
Cal Eldred
Aaron Sele
Shawn Estes
Ryan Dempster
Jason Johnson

Pavano and Meche are still both very young pitchers who seemed well on their way to becoming productive fantasy starters before injuries hit them early in their career. Each should end up with regular rotation spots this Spring and could produce well. Neither is a big strikeout pitcher, and Pavano should keep better secondary numbers, but expect a higher win total from Meche.

Cal Eldred is expected to win a spot in the Cardinals rotation by many this season, but hasn't pitched in two years. If he manages to win the spot, treat him just like Tomko as a guy who will put up slightly below average secondary numbers but win a lot of games because of the team behind him. Stephenson should and Hermanson should be treated similarly, though they have a tougher road to a regular rotation spot.

Pat Hentgen has won a Cy Young award in his career, and that has to count for something. The problem, however, is that he missed over a year with the Orioles after Tommy John surgery, and didn't look like he was nearly ready to come back when he made a few starts down the stretch last season. If he can prove that he's 100% back, he's worth a pickup on the waiver wire. Other than that, don't draft him unless your leauge is deep.

Shawn Estes, Ryan Dempster, and Jason Johnson are all coming off of what would be considered subpar seasons in 2002. Both Johnson and Dempster are young enough and well-touted enough to overcome their bad seasons and should be worth roster spots. Estes is just an extremely overrated pitcher who will tend to be drafted around here. Dempster would top this list, but he may have the worst control of any pitcher in the major leagues.

Aaron Sele may return to find that he's lost his spot in the rotation to injury, and was no better than an average #4 starter on a major league team or a reserve starter with a fantasy team a year ago. He's not really worth a pick, but may still be drafted in some leagues.

Francisco Cordero
Steve Kline
Rick Ankiel
Felix Rodriguez
Steve Karsay
Lance Carter
Travis Phelps
Jesus Colome
Ramiro Mendoza
Mike Timlin
Chad Fox

There's nothing like that cheap source of saves who you can sneak away with late in your fantasy draft rather than wasting an earlier pick on an overrated closer who will pitch 60 innings for you.

Many a moan and groan were heard by fantasy owners when the Rangers signed Ugueth Urbina, but there's still hope. While Francisco Cordero will be a setup man entering the season and won't steal the job from Urbina, Ugueth has some scary injury history (see 1999-2001) and shouldn't necessarily be counted on to remain healthy. Cordero will get first crack if Urbina goes down, and proved that he can handle the job last season.

Steve Kline has picked up 29 very quiet saves in the last season, and will likely begin the season as the Cardinals closer until Jason Isringhausen is ready to return from the DL. Izzy has a scary injury history himself, and has had seven shoulder surgeries already in his big league career, so don't be shocked if he makes multiple trips this season, boosting Kline's value as the leading candidate to replace him. Rick Ankiel has also been mentioned as a candidate this Spring, but that's a mistake that Tony Larussa just won't make. Ankiel struggles with pressure situations (see five wild pitches in one inning in the playoffs a few years back), and that's the main thing that's necessary for a closer to be able to handle.

Felix Rodriguez won't get a chance to close while he's stuck behind the durable Robb Nen in San Francisco, but his salary has apparently become a bit of an issue with the Giants. If they're looking to trim payroll, Rodriguez could be dealt to a club that's looking for a closer, and he's worth a roster spot as a reliever who will pick up a handful of wins while producing elite secondary numbers anyway.

Questions as to Mariano Rivera's durability leave Steve Karsay as a decent option to see a few saves this season in New York. Rivera has slipped (bigtime) this season in many drafts, and I've yet to figure it out. Personally, he (Rivera) was just taken in the fifth round in a fifteen team league and was the seventh closer taken in a draft I was involved in, and who knows how much longer he would have lasted if I hadn't felt sick leaving him out there. Expect a handful of saves from Karsay, but expect Rivera to stay pretty healthy this season.

Lance Carter and Travis Phelps should battle it out for the Rays closing situation this Spring, with Jesus Colome bringing up the rear. Carter has a terrific mound demeanor and was solid towards the end of last season, while Phelps and Colome are both future closer candidates. Expect Carter to win the job out of Spring, but don't expect fantastic secondary numbers from any of the three.

Mike Timlin and Chad Fox could both see plenty of action as part of the Red Sox righty closer platoon, but the real potential sleeper here is Ramiro Mendoza. Timlin has closed in the past, and Fox was expected to bust out as the Brewers closer last season, but neither has proven that they can flourish in the role. Mendoza is always a solid source of cheap saves of the three-inning variety, and has won 23 games over the past three seasons as well. He's effective and can throw more than an inning when necessary, and has the demeanor that's necessary to close at the big league level.

Arthur Rhodes
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Nelson
Juan Cruz

Any of these four middle relievers could well challenge 100 strikeouts with solid secondary numbers. Rhodes won 10 games last season, but don't bank on that happenning again. On the flipside, expect Farnsworth to rebound from last season's disappointment and settle back onto his track to becoming the Cubs closer after Alfonseca's gone. Nelson should be healthy this year, meaning he's one of the top middle relief options in the league, and Cruz was fantastic after he moved to middle relief. Expect solid secondary numbers with plenty of strikeouts, but don't expect much in the wins or saves category out of these guys.