The Hook

The Deadline Draws Nigh

You needn't look any further than last week's two blockbusters to get a sense that a handful of teams are going to start maneuvering a bit in the next month. Some will have their eyes on October, while others will be looking a little bit further ahead and playing for next year. Deadline deals can be crucial to a pitcher's fantasy value. Quite often a deal can mean a change in roles for some players, primarily in the back of the bullpen. Starters who change hands often go from a bad situation with shoddy run support to a contending team that's putting up six runs a game for them. Sometimes trading for (or away, in some cases) players who are likely to make a move can make or break a fantasy season, so let's take a look at some of the names that could be in the headlines in the next few weeks.

Randy Johnson
Likely Destination: New York, Boston
Likelihood of being traded: 60%

Despite the fact that Jerry Colangelo claims the Diamondbacks have no intention of dealing away their ace lefty, reports are flying that he may move before the deadline. Honestly, it would make nothing but absolute sense for Arizona to deal him, as they look to be at least a year or two away from contention in a surprisingly strong NL West. At 40 years old already, the likelihood is that Johnson won't still be playing two years from now. By dealing him away, they could certainly get a handful of strong prospects (remember when the Astros gave the Mariners Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama for him?) that would help them build for the future. More importantly, Arizona could hope to see a return on their offseason deal with the Brewers by freeing up the money that they were paying to the Unit and using it to re-sign Richie Sexson.

The primary suitors would most likely be the Yankees and Red Sox. Steinbrenner has already said that he'd love to add Randy Johnson in a radio interview earlier in the week, while the Sox will be out for blood after the Yankees snagged Alex Rodriguez in the preseason. The biggest problem may be that neither team has the prospects to make this deal happen, but they'll still find a way to get involved.

Ugueth Urbina
Likely Destination: Chicago (NL)
Likelihood of being traded: 40%

Urbina would most likely be looking at a lateral move, as rumors had the Cubs asking about him earlier this week. With Joe Borowski on the DL (and ineffective all year), LaTroy Hawkins has taken the closer's role for now. It almost seems nonsensical for the Cubs to try and go out and get a more established closer, as it seemed that working Hawkins into the closer's role was in their plans all along, but a team with a "win now" mentality would certainly feel more comfortable with a closer who was good enough to anchor the World Champs' bullpen last year. Throw in the fact that the Cubs could effectively shut down a game from the eighth inning on with Hawkins in the eighth and Oogie in the ninth, and it would be less than shocking to see them swing this deal.

I've heard no confirmation about who might be involved, though you can be sure that the Cubbies would just send some more prospects the Tigers' way. Urbina did just sign a one year deal with the Tigers, so it would appear likely that the Tigers could move him if they feel they don't have a shot at the AL Central. That said, the AL Central is weak enough so that they're still just six games out. The Indians and White Sox should both be looking for closers at the deadline as well, but it's unlikely that the Tigers would deal him within the division.

Jose Mesa
Likely Destination: Cleveland, Chicago (AL)
Likelihood of being traded: 70%

Let's face it. As nice as an eight game winning streak looks on paper, the Bucs still find themselves twelve games behind division-leading St. Louis. There's no question as to whether or not the Pirates will be sellers at the deadline again, and Mesa is one of their two most movable commodities. At 38, good old Joe Table is having his best season since his glory days in the mid-nineties back when he was with the Tribe, and those same Indians are absolutely desperate for someone who can shorten the game a bit. On paper, Cleveland is the most logical fit, but for the potential clubhouse nightmare when you team him up with Omar Vizquel.

Why are the Indians the most logical fit? While they certainly won't mortgage the future for a has-been who's enjoying a sudden resurgence this season, they do certainly have one of the strongest farm systems in the league. Don't be shocked to see them throw a couple of decent major league ready prospects (Ben Broussard? Ryan Ludwick?) at the Bucs to see if they can solidify their bullpen. Shingo Takatsu and Damaso Marte have been solid closing ballgames for the White Sox so far, but if they really want to say that they have high hopes of not only getting to the playoffs, but winning, they'll need a bigger arm at the back of the bullpen. They showed with the Freddy Garcia deal that they're going for it, so expect them to try and add a closer, as well as possibly adding another starter.

Kris Benson
Likely Destination: New York (NL and AL), Philadelphia, St. Louis, Chicago (AL)
Likelihood of being traded: 95%

It's not a matter of if Benson will be traded, but where and when at this point. Pittsburgh has to like what Benson has done lately, as he's thrown four quality starts in his last six games and improved his trade value. As is the case with Mesa, the Bucs will be looking for prospects all around the diamond. The Mets and Yankees have both shied away recently, feeling that the Pirates are asking for too much. Philly could certainly use another solid arm in their rotation to stay atop the NL East race, particularly with Vicente Padilla on the shelf for the next month. The wildcard? St. Louis continues to claim that they have no intention of dealing for another starting pitcher. Their makeshift rotation of Matt Morris (also a FA at the end of the year), Chris Carpenter, Woody Williams, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Suppan could certainly be bolstered for the stretch run. As long as St. Louis is in contention, Morris will stay there, so unless they have an absolutely awful July, you can forget about him being on the market. No matter what happens, Benson probably won't be moved until late in the month when the Pirates finally realize they have to get something done and lower their asking price.

Ramon Ortiz
Likely Destinations: Baltimore, Chicago (AL), New York (NL), St. Louis
Likelihood of being traded: 70%

For the second time this season, Ortiz was shoved back to the bullpen when Aaron Sele returned. Not coincidentally, he requested a trade almost immediately for the second time this season. Ortiz, who has been a starter for his entire career, wants a rotation spot. While he was awful as a starter early on, he looked strong back in his usual role while Sele was injured, and has pitched very well out of the bullpen since being moved there in mid-May. When he's on, he's got front-line starter stuff, but when he's not, he can really get shelled. Ortiz would be a boom or bust type of pickup for any of the teams involved, but the Halos won't take anyone who won't help them right away, as they're playing to win this year. If they're unlikely to find a trade partner who will help them right away, don't expect Ortiz to move, but he's certainly not a positive influence in the clubhouse right now.

Line of the Week

The pitching line of the week will always be either a great line (green), an awful line (red), or a bizarre line (yellow)

4.0 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 K

Bartolo Colon continues to do his two-pronged Mo Vaughn impersonation. For one thing, it appears that he's gotten to know Mo's cheesecake specialist in Anaheim very well. More importantly, though, he's chnaged from a legitimate star to one of the worst players in the big leagues, seemingly overnight. Maybe he just wants to show us there's a reason he's on his fourth team in the last three years... somebody saw this coming!

A "Closer" Look
Closers with three or more saves in the past seven days: Danny Kolb

Not like this is news anymore, but Brad Lidge now has the duties in the ninth for the Astros, and hasn't really missed a beat. Lidge is 1-1 with four saves and no blown saves in his last six appearances, and has allowed just two runs since May 26. Don't fret about Dan Miceli's save on Saturday, as Lidge had pitched three days in a row.... Since allowing four runs in his inaugural appearance with the Oakland A's, Octavio Dotel has settled down and looked like his old self, allowing just four baserunners in four innings.... Jorge Julio earned his first save in nearly two weeks on Thursday, a pace that's been all too familiar for his fantasy owners. Among closers who have kept their job all season, Julio ranks dead last with 11 saves.... Jose Mesa blew his first save of the year in Wednesday's 6-5 win over the Cardinals, snapping a string of eighteen straight to start the year. He still did end up with something to show for it, though, as the Bucs struck back in the bottom of the ninth to give him one of those old vulture wins.

Let's Play Two

The following is a list of all starters scheduled to make two starts in the following fantasy week (7/5-7/11). All home games are in CAPS.

American League

John Lackey - Chicago White Sox, Toronto
Daniel Cabrera - TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY
Rodrigo Lopez - TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY
Tim Wakefield - OAKLAND, TEXAS
Freddy Garcia - ANAHEIM, SEATTLE
C.C. Sabathia - TEXAS, OAKLAND
Cliff Lee - TEXAS, OAKLAND
Nate Robertson - New York Yankees, Minnesota
Jason Johnson - New York Yankees, Minnesota
Brian Anderson - Minnesota, Baltimore
Zack Greinke - Minnesota, Baltimore
Brad Radke - KANSAS CITY, DETROIT
Johan Santana - KANSAS CITY, DETROIT
Jon Lieber - DETROIT, TAMPA BAY
Brad Halsey - DETROIT, TAMPA BAY
Barry Zito - Boston, Cleveland
Clint Nagoette - Toronto, Chicago White Sox
Dewon Brazelton - Baltimore, New York Yankees
Mark Hendrickson - Baltimore, New York Yankees
Kenny Rogers - Cleveland, Boston
John Wasdin - Cleveland, Boston
Josh Towers - SEATTLE, ANAHEIM

Start of the Week

While it's awfully tempting to take Freddy Garcia (10-2 lifetime vs. Anaheim, and making his first start against his former team in the Mariners... both at home), we'll take the musical stylings and yoga action of Barry Zito. Zito's career record of 5-2 against his two opponents combined isn't very imposing, but his secondary numbers are. Zito has been strong against the Red Sox (3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), but he's looked like the second coming of Sandy Koufax against the Tribe. Zito has allowed just two earned runs in three career starts against the Indians, and shut them down on three hits the first time he faced them this year. Much like you'll find with our NL start of the week selection, he had nothing to show for it, as Jim Mecir allowed a solo homer to lead off the ninth in a 1-0 loss.

Last Week's Selection: (cough) Roy Halladay - 1-1, 12.0 IP, 7 R, 7 ER, 13 H, 3 BB, 9 K

On the Year: 7-6, 110.2 IP, 64 R, 54 ER, 116 H, 30 BB, 70 K (4.39 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)

National League

Brandon Webb - Los Angeles, San Francisco
Casey Fossum - Los Angeles, San Francisco
Paul Byrd - Montreal, Philadelphia
Matt Clement - Milwaukee, St. Louis
Corey Lidle - St. Louis, Milwaukee
Jose Acevedo - St. Louis, Milwaukee
Aaron Cook - San Francisco, San Diego
Denny Stark - San Francisco, San Diego
A.J. Burnett - PITTSBURGH, NEW YORK METS
Roger Clemens - San Diego, Los Angeles
Peter Munro - San Diego, Los Angeles
Hideo Nomo - ARIZONA, HOUSTON
Jose Lima - ARIZONA, HOUSTON
Ben Sheets - CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI
Victor Santos - CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI
Zach Day - ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH
Scott Downs - ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH
Tom Glavine - Philadelphia, Florida
Al Leiter - Philadelphia, Florida
Paul Abbott - NEW YORK METS, ATLANTA
Randy Wolf - NEW YORK METS, ATLANTA
Kip Wells - Florida, Montreal
Josh Fogg - Florida, Montreal
Brian Sweeney - HOUSTON, COLORADO
Ismael Valdes - HOUSTON, COLORADO
Brett Tomko - COLORADO, ARIZONA
Jason Schmidt - COLORADO, ARIZONA
Chris Carpenter - CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS

Start of the Week

There are a ton of starters this week with decent experience against their two opponents (FINALLY!), but none have as good a history against their two opponents as Ben Sheets. Maybe it all spreads from the rivalry between our two correspondents (Jeff and Gordon), but Sheets has levelled the Cubs in his career on his way to a 6-2 lifetime record against them. His secondary numbers against the lovable losers are just as impressive, with a 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts in ten starts against the northsiders. While Sheets' secondary numbers against the Reds are equally as impressive (2.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 54 K in nine starts), the Brew Crew hasn't quite given him the same support they seem to against the Cubs, as he's 3-2 in his career against Cincinnati. This season, he's faced the Reds once, with mixed results. He fanned ten in six innings and left as the winner, but the bullpen couldn't hold on.

Last Week's Selection: David Wells - 1-0, 5.1 IP, 4 R, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K - Next: vs. Kansas City

On the Year: 8-2, 106.1 IP, 48 R, 41 ER, 104 H, 28 BB, 95 K (3.47 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)

---