The Hook

August's Best Arms/AL Central Keeper Focus

For the remainder of the season and through the postseason, we'll be taking a look division by division at which pitchers appear to be worthy of holding onto in keeper leagues. As we have our August Awards to dish out this week, we're starting it off with the weakest division along those lines, the AL Central.

While people are still touting such names as Mark Mulder, Curt Schilling, and even Pedro Martinez (who is having a terrible year by his lofty standards) as legitimate candidates for the AL Cy Young, our August pitcher of the month truly continues to separate himself from the competition. After earning honorable mention in June, Johan Santana won the July award here on our column, and there's nobody that even put up comparable statistics to him in August either.

Starting Pitcher of the Month: Johan Santana
Credentials: 6-0, 2.08 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 52 K in 43.1 IP

It may be cliche to pick the same winner in back to back months, but Santana really had only one legitimate contender (Jake Peavy) and beat him up in wins and strikeouts. Santana placed third among all starters in ERA for the month (Peavy, 1.88; Joe Kennedy, 2.05), fourth in innings pitched, third in strikeouts, and second in WHIP. To go along with all of that, Santana paced the league in wins with six, beating out Roy Oswalt, Curt Schilling, and the suddenly resurgent Tim Wakefield with five a piece.

Santana has carried a mediocre staff in Minnesota towards what would appear to be a third straight division title at the end of the month and has thrown an absolutely remarkable sixteen consecutive quality starts since June 8. Anybody who thinks that Mark Mulder's two win advantage on the season offsets a 0.74 lead in ERA, 0.28 lead in WHIP, and 89 strikeout lead by Santana is laughable. Johan should have yet another phenomenal month to close out the season, and is currently the most dominant starter in the league. Whoever the Twins face in the first round of the playoffs had better make sure they don't lose to Radke or Lohse, or they're going home early.

Honorable Mention: Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, Jeff Weaver, Rich Harden, Curt Schilling

Reliever of the Month: Mariano Rivera
Credentials: 1-0, 8 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 11 K in 12 IP

Being honored as one of the best relievers in the league is nothing new for Mo, but this is the first time he'll win the award in the column. While the rest of the Bombers struggled, Rivera was his old terminating self, shutting the door every time that they got it to him and even tossing in a late-inning win. While his eight saves actually left him three off the pace set by John Smoltz, Rivera was simply dominant in allowing just eight baserunners all month and holding the opposition scoreless.

Honorable Mention: John Smoltz, Francisco Cordero, Brad Lidge, Keith Foulke, Julian Tavarez

Value Play - Starter: Jeff Weaver
Credentials: 4-0, 2.30 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 28 K in 43 IP

Here's our preseason sleeper of the year, who actually quietly leads the majors with 22 quality starts so far this season. Weaver, left for dead in a lot of fantasy drafts after two absolutely horrid seasons in New York, has really started to shine back home in California. Weavs tossed in six of those twenty-two quality starts last month, leading a Dodgers' staff that many thought might be hurting after it lost newly acquired Brad Penny after just two starts. With better run support, Weaver could actually have pushed Santana with six wins, as he got just three runs of support combined in his two no-decisions.

Honorable Mention: Jeff Suppan, Jaret Wright, Orlando Hernandez, Paul Byrd, Kelvim Escobar

Value Play - Reliever: Francisco Cordero
Credentials: 1-0, 10 SV, 0.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 10 K in 12.1 IP

We all knew Cordero would be closing prior to the start of the season, but few had him among the elite at his position. It seems that everyone was wrong, and Cordero's strong month earns him some of the recognition he's deserved all season long. Cordero was virtually untouchable for the second consecutive month, and recorded a decision in all but one of his twelve appearances. While Texas' offense has been unbelievable and their starting pitching has been much better than expected, the bullpen has been what's held this team together, and Cordero has led the way all season long.

Honorable Mention: Julian Tavarez (4 wins), Greg Aquino, Dustin Hermanson, Brad Lidge, Giovanni Carrara

Fantasy Dud of the Month: Esteban Loaiza
(Lack of) Credentials: 0-2, 8.47 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, 19 K in 27.2 IP

Loaiza is finally back to living up to expectations... from two years ago. Loaiza, the one-hit wonder of the 2003 season, took his trade to the Yankees as an opportunity to re-find his form of the late '90's and early 2000's rather than to re-find his form of last season, and even earned a demotion to the bullpen in the Bronx. Loaiza, perhaps the most overhyped (and definitely the most overrated) starter in the fantasy field after last year's breakthrough performance, allowed at least four runs in all six of his appearances last month and only lasted five innings twice. In fact, Loaiza hasn't thrown a quality start since June 17 in a 2-1 loss to Florida. If you haven't wised up and dumped him yet, it's time to give up.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Javier Vazquez, Wilson Alvarez, Jamie Moyer, Russ Ortiz, Trevor Hoffman

Keeper Focus: AL Central

In our keeper focus segment, we'll focus on all five (four for the AL West, six for the NL Central) teams in the division briefly with a look at which pitchers should be kept in shallow keeper leagues, mid-range keeper leagues, and deep keeper leagues.

Minnesota Twins

Shallow: Johan Santana - Santana has proven that he's got the stamina to pitch a full season as a starter at this point and may be the most dominant starter in all of baseball. Unfortunately, he's the only starter worthy of this category in the entire division. Santana can be counted on for 220+ strikeouts, 15-18 wins, and monster ERA and WHIP numbers, and is still only 25.

Mid-Range: Joe Nathan, Brad Radke - Nathan has done quite a bit to establish himself as a middle tier closer, but he should have some competition next season to hold the role. Radke is having a career year in terms of secondary numbers and is always good for 12-15 wins and plenty of innings. At 32, he's still got a few years left, but don't expect him to keep that ERA under 4 next year.

Off the deep end: Carlos Silva, Jesse Crain, Kyle Lohse - Silva and Lohse have both had up and down seasons for the Twins, though most of Lohse's season seems to have been a downer. Still, his past numbers and age appear to identify that he has a good shot to turn it around next season.... Nathan's competition for the closer's role could be Jesse Crain, and it could be as soon as next season. Crain has looked solid since being called up from AAA, was the closer at AA and AAA in 2003 and 2004 respectively, and has been widely viewed as Minnesota's closer of the future for the past few seasons.

Cleveland Indians

Shallow: None

Mid-Range: C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia keeps on tantalizing us with a month and a half of phenomenal pitching every now and then, but is still having trouble putting it all together for a full season. Already the ace of the staff for the past two and a half years at 24, Sabathia still has a ton of great seasons ahead of him, but just can't find that next level. He'll never be quite the factor in strikeout leagues that he looks like he should be, but some more support out of the rest of the rotation and better bullpen work in the next couple of years would be a huge help in relieving some pressure from him.

Off the deep end: Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee - Westbrook has far surpassed expectations this season, and could easily be placed in the above category rather than this one for that reason. That said, he already seems to be reaching his ceiling. Westbrook was supposed to develop into a solid middle-to-back-end of the rotation starter and has pitched like one much of the time this season. He's also turned in a lot of starts that are worthy of an ace and could just be getting a little lucky. Lee has a slightly higher ceiling, and looked strong for the first half of the season. While he seems to have fallen apart lately, this is the first year that he's thrown a full schedule in the big leagues and he was coming off of an injury that cost him most of 2003. Lee should be much better prepared for the rigors of a full season in 2005 and shouldn't fade nearly as much down the stretch.

Chicago White Sox

Shallow: None

Mid-Range: Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle - Buehrle has been the most consistently solid starter on this staff, though his ceiling is a lot lower than Garcia or Contreras as a fantasy starter. Buehrle has already surpassed his career best in strikeouts and relies mainly on an average arsenal that he uses really well. If he's on, Buehrle can be a star, but when he's off, look out. Garcia and Contreras are much better in terms of "stuff". Garcia has a proven history as a legit #2 fantasy starter, and was on his way to a big campaign until he blew up in his last two starts and hit the disabled list with a forearm problem. Contreras has been phenomenal since leaving the not-so-friendly confines of the House that Ruth Built.

Off the Deep End: Damaso Marte - Shingo Takatsu has been solid as the closer, but Marte will always be in the mix as long as he's with the palehose. Whether he closes or not, Marte remains valuable as a phenomenal lefty out of the pen who picks up a handful of wins, a handful of saves, and a ton of holds (if that's a category in your league). He does all this while keeping phenomenal secondary numbers, and has arguably been the most consistent setup man in baseball over the past three seasons.

Detroit Tigers

Shallow: None

Mid-Range: None

Off the deep end: Nate Robertson, Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman - Robertson has been a terrific surprise this year, and is proving to be a formidable presence in strikeout leagues. He's solid, entering his prime, and should continue to pitch at this level next season. Maroth has certainly done a nice job of making up for being the first pitcher to lose 20 in two decades, and is actually over .500 right now. He's a solid back end guy on a fantasy team, though he shouldn't really be kept unless you're keeping 15 or more players. I keep on waiting to see what all of the scouts say Bonderman's capable of, and maybe he showed a hint of it in shutting out the White Sox last week. He could be a monster in strikeout leagues if he ever finds a way to keep his ERA under 5.00 for a full season, but he may still need more seasoning.

Kansas City Royals

Shallow: None

Mid-Range: Zack Greinke - Say what you want about the Royals' absolute disappearance in 2004, but don't dog the performance of Greinke. The twenty-year-old Greg Maddux clone burst onto the scene in mid-May and has shown composure beyond his years so far. Though he definitely endured some rookie struggles before the break, Greinke has been red hot for the past month and a half, allowing just five runs in going 3-0 in his last four starts. Who thought he'd be this good this fast?

Off the deep end: Jeremy Affeldt, Runelvys Hernandez - If Affeldt can ever get his blister problems under control, he should develop into a solid lefty closer. He's looked solid when healthy, but he's really only being mentioned here because there has to be someone other than Greinke on this list. Speaking of guys who could be solid other than Greinke, Runelvys Hernandez should be ready to return to the rotation early next season for the Royals, and had a phenomenal rookie year in 2003 before elbow surgery ended his season.

Let's Play Two

American League

Bartolo Colon - TORONTO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Daniel Cabrera - MINNESOTA, NEW YORK YANKEES
Bronson Arroyo - Oakland, Seattle
Derek Lowe - Oakland, Seattle
Jason Grilli - Texas, Anaheim
Jose Contreras - Texas, Anaheim
C.C. Sabathia - Seattle, Oakland
Jason Johnson - KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA
Mike Maroth - KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA
Brian Anderson - Detroit, TAMPA BAY
Zack Greinke - Detroit, TAMPA BAY
Terry Mulholland - Baltimore, Detroit
Orlando Hernandez - TAMPA BAY, Baltimore
Jon Leiber - TAMPA BAY, Baltimore
Barry Zito - BOSTON, CLEVELAND
Gil Meche - CLEVELAND, BOSTON
Mark Hendrickson - New York Yankees, Kansas City
Dewon Brazelton - New York Yankees, Kansas City
Chan Ho Park - CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TORONTO
Kenny Rogers - CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TORONTO
David Bush - Anaheim, Texas

Start of the Week

We're going to go against our traditional use of this segment in the column, taking a hot young pitcher against two pretty mediocre offenses rather than going with a pitcher's history. I suppose we can't do much worse than we have all season (well... in the AL at least) with this theory, so here goes. Zack Greinke has been on fire lately, going 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA in the past month, and faces two teams full of young and undisciplined hitters who should struggle against a pitcher with his style in the Devil Rays and Tigers.

Last Time's Selection: Tim Hudson - 2-0, 14.1 IP, 7 R, 3 ER, 12 H, 3 BB, 9 K... About time!

On the Year: 13-9, 175.1 IP, 184 H, 55 BB, 99 R, 84 ER, 104 K (4.31 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).... To indicate just how poor those numbers are, the FIC team that I represent us with in an invitational AL-Only experts league currently leads that league with a 4.08 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. I don't have the option of making sure they have two favorable starts a week there.

National League

Brandon Webb - Los Angeles, SAN FRANCISCO
Mike Hampton - PHILADELPHIA, MONTREAL
Jaret Wright - PHILADELPHIA, MONTREAL
Mark Prior - MONTREAL, FLORIDA
Aaron Harang - Houston, MILWAUKEE
Paul Wilson - Houston, MILWAUKEE
Jamey Wright - SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO
Ismael Valdes - NEW YORK METS, Chicago Cubs
Brandon Backe - CINCINNATI, Pittsburgh
Roy Oswalt - CINCINNATI, Pittsburgh
Hideo Nomo - ARIZONA, ST. LOUIS
Victor Santos - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Ben Sheets - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Tony Armas - Chicago Cubs, Atlanta
Tom Glavine - Florida, PHILADELPHIA
Eric Milton - Atlanta, New York Mets
Vicente Padilla - Atlanta, New York Mets
Ryan Vogelsong - MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON
Dave Williams - MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON
Adam Eaton - ST. LOUIS, Colorado
Jake Peavy - ST. LOUIS, Colorado
Kirk Rueter - Colorado, Arizona
Chris Carpenter - San Diego, Los Angeles

Start of the Week

I assure we do this only to bore you to death. In fact, this is the third time we'll be taking this particular starter, and all three times, one of his opponents has been the Cincinnati Reds. I can't drive this point home enough, though. Roy Oswalt is 10-0 lifetime against the Reds with a 2.33 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He hasn't been so bad against the Bucs either, going 6-4 lifetime against them with a 2.91 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, making him the easy call yet again.

Last Time's Selection: Carlos Zambrano - 1-1, 12.1 IP, 10 R, 6 ER, 11 H, 9 BB, 13 K... OUCH!

On the Year: 16-5, 176.1 IP, 153 H, 45 BB, 67 R, 55 ER, 170 K (2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP... Much better!

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