The Hook

NL Central Keeper Focus

Since we covered the AL Central two weeks ago when we last published the column, we'll switch gears and head over to the National League Central. The depth is a lot greater in the NL, and there are even a few pitchers who could challenge Johan Santana's status as the best potential keeper pitcher. Most of the fantastic keeper options reside in Chicago, but no team in the division is really a slouch.... well... scratch that.

Cincinnati Reds

Shallow: None

Mid-Range: None

Off the Deep End: Danny Graves, Ryan Wagner - Joe Valentine could arguably be added to this group as well, but Wagner and Graves are the guys to watch. Graves has had another surprisingly successful 40 save season, though his team is very average, his ERA is pretty high for a closer, and he's spent time on the DL. He may not be in Cincinnati next year, and he still wants to start, so he's a risky option at best. Wagner could close for this team as early as 2005, but his results as a middle reliever have been extremely disappointing this season. Even if he closes next year, he'll be about the 25th-30th most valuable closer, and that doesn't warrant keeper status unless you're keeping virtually all of your players.

Chicago Cubs

Shallow: Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood - While Wood and Prior have been extremely disappointing this season, they've shown enough in the past and are certainly still young enough to warrant big-time keeper status. That said, it's time to give Zambrano his due. With the club's two best pitchers injured or ineffective all season, Zambrano (well... maybe let's give some credit to Clement and Maddux) has singlehandedly carried this staff on his back, going 13-8 with a 2.83 ERA. His rookie year was extremely surprising in 2002, and his follow-up in 2003 was amazing, but didn't tantalize enough fantasy owners to build their rotation around him prior to drafting. Now that he's put up similar dominant stats three years in a row and actually slightly improved each season, he's taken his place among the elite.

Mid-Range: Matt Clement, Greg Maddux, LaTroy Hawkins - Clement + Maddux = Zambrano. Clement had a terrific first half and Maddux has been amazing down the stretch, but neither was dominant all season long. Maddux is aging, but still warrants keeper status as long as he's with the Cubs, which he will be next season. Clement isn't likely to stay in Chicago, but you can bet he'll be pretty close to top notch whereever he goes. Hawkins may sound like a bit of a risk here, but the only way that he won't close for them next season is if they go out and get someone else in the offseason. While he struggled early on after taking over as the closer, he's settled down quite a bit, and his season-long numbers (4-4, 21 SV, 2 BS [that's 90+%], 2.58 ERA) are that of a top fifteen closer.

Off the Deep End: None

Houston Astros

Shallow: Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge - Say what you will about Oswalt. He's too small. He runs a little too hot and cold sometimes. The simple fact of the matter is that he's on his way to his second season with 18-20 wins in the past three seasons. Roy boy is a lock for an ERA in the low three range, 15 wins, and 200 K's if he stays on the field. Some people may want to see a bit more out of Lidge now that he's getting his chance to close, but if you really do, you need your eyes checked. Lidge was a monster before he was closing, and has 132 strikeouts in 82+ innings. That's Gagne-like (14.4 K/9 innings.... leads the majors). He's kept a terrific 2.19 ERA to go along with it and 22 saves since assuming the closer's role in late June. Lidge is a legit top five closer next season.

Mid-Range: Wade Miller, Andy Pettitte - Neither player really got much of a chance to show us what they can do this year, as each suffered injuries that cost them about half the year. Past performance tells us that if they're healthy next year, they should both challenge 15-18 wins and keep solid secondary numbers to go along with it. Miller is the younger of the two, but Pettitte's far from washed up.

Off the Deep End: Roger Clemens - Let me preface this by saying that Clemens has had an amazing season, and that if you just know he's going to come back and give it one more shot next year, he should be placed higher than this. I have a feeling this is Roger's swan song, though. If your league allows you to hold off on naming your keepers and you have Clemens, hold off on announcing whether or not you're going to keep him until he makes a decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

Shallow: Ben Sheets - Sheets had all the makings of a pitcher that was ready to breakout after last season. He was terrific in the first half in 2003 aside from allowing a lot of homers, but he tired in the second half. Though he finally learned something about keeping the opposition in the yard in the second half last season, his ERA ballooned up. This season, Sheets has been money all season long. He leads the division in ERA (2.81) and strikeouts (229), but he just can't seem to get enough run support to push his win total to the point where you'd like it to be for your ace. Nevertheless, he's more than worth keeping unless you have five absolute monsters on your team ahead of him. You wouldn't let Randy Johnson go, would you?

Mid-Range: Danny Kolb - I know, Brewers fan(s) (ummm... Gordon). When you see Kolb down in this lower group, you're asking what exactly he has to do to be acknowledged as a top flight closer. Kolb's numbers this season have been phenomenal for the most part. He has 37 saves in 40 chances, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 2.30 ERA. Awfully Lidge-like, right? But I digress... Fantasy owners want their closers to strike a few hitters out, and Kolb has just 20 in 54.2 innings of work. If he's not striking out hitters and you're keeping him (even at this range), he better duplicate the rest of those numbers or you're wasting a pick.

Shallow: Doug Davis - Honestly, Davis has been impressive enough this season to possibly warrant a spot one rung up with the mid-range keepers, but he hasn't done enough to warrant that much trust in the past. Davis is a solid pitcher who has had a career year across the board (in every category... it's kind of eerie). While he's not an old man at 29 (though I feel like I am an old man at 29), we're not exactly talking about a rookie or second year player that finally figured it out. Davis has been in the bigs since 1999.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Shallow: Oliver Perez - The Bucs just have to get better around this kid for him to earn this status, but I think the numbers speak for themselves so far. Perez looks like a young (and... well... much smaller) Randy Johnson out there. He's a monster in strikeout leagues (212 in 170.2 IP.... ridiculous ratio for a starter) and he's only going to get better at 23. With a young supporting cast (in the rotation, bullpen, and lineup) that should improve as well, the sky looks like the limit.

Mid-Range: Kip Wells - Wells is another one of those "past performance" guys. Though he certainly was disappointing before his injury this season, Wells has shown for the past two seasons that he can be a terrific pitcher even without a great team behind him. If you have the choice of keeping ten players and you're not absolutely loving the idea of your tenth guy, he could be worth a shot.

Off the Deep End: Jose Mesa, John Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett - If I recall correctly, when the Pirates bought out Mesa's minor-league deal, they signed him for two years. If you've heard differently, he probably won't be retained and isn't worth keeping. Van Benschoten and Burnett could each develop into staff aces, and are terrific young pitchers to have if you want to watch them develop. In really deep keeper leagues, those can usually be afforded and may pan out a year or two down the road. If you're playing to win next year, they're pretty iffy.

St. Louis Cardinals

Shallow: Chris Carpenter - Carpenter is a little iffy in this range, but he was phenomenal for about the first four months of the season. Considering that he didn't handle much of a workload (pitched only a few minor league innings of rehab) in 2003, he was bound to wear down a bit as the season wore on. Carpenter has been the definition of an ace for the Redbirds this season, chewing up a lot of quality innings. His ERA may be a bit high for an ace (3.53 right now), and his strikeout totals are a tad low (150), but he should actually be better next season since he'll have regained some stamina.

Mid-Range: Jason Marquis, Matt Morris - The law of averages will catch up next season. Marquis won't be nearly as good as he's been this year and Morris won't be nearly as bad as he's been. The biggest question mark surrounding Morris will be where he's playing (right now, it appears that there's no chance he'll stay here in St. Louis unless he takes a huge paycut), but Matty Mo will find a way to turn it back around. When he's on, he's an ace, but when he's off... man, it can be scary. Marquis may continue to thrive in St. Louis, as the best thing he does is throw ground balls. Assuming the team manages to re-sign Edgar Renteria, they'll once again have the best infield defense in the majors.

Off the Deep End: Jeff Suppan, Woody Williams, Adam Wainright, Rick Ankiel - Suppan is the only one who is assured a spot in the Cardinal rotation next season, and has been the definition of a solid #3/4 fantasy starter. He's more than worth your time if you're keeping over half your team. My personal hunch is that Williams will retire if the Cardinals win the World Series, but he'll probably hang around (somewhere else) in the majors next year if they don't. Like Morris, he'll be a free agent at year's end, and it's not expected that his services will be retained. Wainright struggled with injuries a bit down on the farm this year, but it's expected that he'll at least challenge for one of the vacant rotation spots next season, and he's a star in the making. If you believe in miracles, go ahead and give Ankiel a look. He's looked strong in two appearances since joining the team in September, but is as high risk/high reward as it gets.

Line of the Week

The pitching line of the week will always be one of three things: a great line (green), an awful line (red), or a bizarre line (yellow).

23 IP, 14 H, 1 BB, 3 R, 25 K

Mike Mussina has finally started to turn it around a bit, and it may be just in time for the Yanks. Mussina has allowed just three runs in his past three starts (2-1) after looking like a shadow of his former self for much of the year. While it definitely looks good for the Yanks that he's finally starting to pitch well, you do have to realize that he faced the O's, Devil Rays, and Royals in those outings.

Let's Play Two

The following is a list of all pitchers scheduled to make two starts in the following fantasy week (9/20-9/26). Home games are in CAPS.

American League

John Lackey - SEATTLE, OAKLAND
Matt Riley - Boston, DETROIT
Rodrigo Lopez - Boston, DETROIT
Tim Wakefield - BALTIMORE, NEW YORK YANKEES
Curt Schilling - BALTIMORE, NEW YORK YANKEES
Mark Buehrle - MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
Jon Garland - MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY
Scott Elarton - Detroit, MINNESOTA
C.C. Sabathia - Detroit, MINNESOTA
Mike Maroth - CLEVELAND, Baltimore
Zack Greinke - Tampa Bay, Chicago White Sox
Darrell May - Tampa Bay, Chicago White Sox
Carlos Silva - Chicago White Sox, Cleveland
Kyle Lohse - Chicago White Sox, Cleveland
Javier Vazquez - TORONTO, Boston
Mark Mulder - Texas, Anaheim
Ryan Franklin - Anaheim, Texas
Dewon Brazelton - KANSAS CITY, TORONTO
Ryan Drese - OAKLAND, SEATTLE
Ted Lilly - New York Yankees, Tampa Bay

Start of the Week

Proof that the list of hopefuls isn't as great as the presence of Vazquez, Mulder, etc. provide? We're going to take John Lackey, who has been excellent with sub 4.00 ERAs against both of his AL West foes for his career. In fact, he looked pretty darn solid against the M's on Wednesday night, though he lost 1-0 to Ryan Franklin.

Last Time's Selection: 1-0, 7.0 IP, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K - Greinke was supposed to make two starts (the second was supposed to be against Tampa Bay), but only made the one because of Hurricane Frances. He was a madman against the Tigers, though, in a 1-0 win.

On the Year: 14-9, 182.1 IP, 187 H, 55 BB, 99 R, 84 ER, 109 K (4.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)

National League

Randy Johnson - Colorado, San Diego
John Thomson - CINCINNATI, FLORIDA
Mark Prior - Florida, New York Mets
Kerry Wood - Florida, New York Mets
Jose Acevedo - Atlanta, Pittsburgh
Shawn Estes - ARIZONA, ST. LOUIS
Carl Pavano - CHICAGO CUBS, Atlanta
Dontrelle Willis - PHILADELPHIA, Atlanta
Carlos Hernandez - San Francisco, Milwaukee
Jeff Weaver - San Diego, San Francisco
Jorge De La Rosa - ST. LOUIS, HOUSTON
Victor Santos - ST. LOUIS, HOUSTON
John Patterson - NEW YORK METS, PHILADELPHIA
Al Leiter - MONTREAL, Chicago Cubs
Brett Myers - Florida, Montreal
Oliver Perez - CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI
Brian Lawrence - LOS ANGELES, ARIZONA
Brett Tomko - HOUSTON, LOS ANGELES
Matt Morris - Milwaukee, Colorado
Jason Marquis - Milwaukee, Colorado

Start of the Week

It may bite us in the butt to do this because he hasn't been the usual Kerry Wood this year, but we'll take him this week against the Marlins and Mets. He's shown unbelievable mastery of the Mets and Marlins in his career. Wood is 5-1 lifetime against the Mets with a 1.45 ERA and 4-1 lifetime against the Marlins with a 2.40 ERA. Throw in a strikeout an inning and he should do just fine.

Last Time's Selection: Roy Oswalt - 1-0, 14.2 IP, 12 H, 6 BB, 6 R, 6 ER, 14 K - Ironically, he won when allowing four to the Reds and settled for a no-decision after allowing two against the Pirates.

On the Year: 17-5, 191 IP, 165 H, 51 BB, 73 R, 61 ER, 184 K (2.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)

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