Category Watch: WHIP

Last week, we tried to show you a few cheap sources of strikeouts who should be available either later in your draft or on the waiver wire. As previously mentioned, finding a player who’s really valuable in one category can help balance out inadequacies with certain perceived fantasy aces. This week, we’ll continue our bargain hunt by looking at some of the players who can help bring down your team’s WHIP.

Much like last week, let’s look at an example of what could put your team in a situation where you have to go hunting for a WHIP stud near the end of your draft. Say, for example, your top two starters are Rich Harden and Kelvim Escobar. Neither is a true ace, but both are probably pitchers you were able to nab in the bottom half of the first ten rounds that should come through in four categories. However, they’ve posted career WHIPs of 1.38 and 1.43 respectively. To win the category, you’re most likely going to have to finish in the 1.30 range or lower, and to even have a decent showing, you’re probably looking at about 1.38 (or your ace’s career average). Unless both of them pitch out of their mind, you’re most likely going to have to find some help to have a good showing in the category.

Calculating WHIP is easy, of course. You simply add up all of the walks and hits that a pitcher allows and divide it by how many innings they’ve thrown:

WHIP = (H + BB)/IP

In order to calculate who some of the players are that are going to help save you in the category, we’re going to take a look at the leaders in the past three seasons in both batting average against and walks per nine innings pitched. Particularly with batting average against, we’re going to find that many of the top pitchers will dominate the top thirty. Unfortunately, after searching through about ten different sites where I typically run my searches for baseball statistics (and my copy of Baseball Prospectus), I was unable to find a full-length list of the walks per nine innings pitched leaders. What we’ll go with is the top ten in each league for the past three seasons, as found at BaseballReference.com.

We’ll set the cutoff point for players that we’re looking at as being picked in the tenth round or lower on average by Yahoo’s drafts, since that’s where the majority of our users play their fantasy ball. All players fitting into a category that fit starting in the tenth round will be in bold. As always, there should be plenty of analysis breaking down the data. Don’t go simply by a player showing up in one category, as you’ll find that some of the pitchers that are great with batting average (Hideo Nomo, Kaz Ishii, Russ Ortiz to name a few) more than make up for this fact by nearly leading the league in walks.

Strategy

Before we get into a detailed analysis of who you should or shouldn’t take from the above list, we’re going to advise you a bit in regards to some of the players who aren’t listed at all above. Every player that was on the above list qualified for the ERA title in the season in which they’re listed, but WHIP can often be won by grabbing an elite middle reliever or two ahead of a number five starter that’s really a borderline fantasy player. When it’s your turn to pick in the fifteenth round and you’re thinking of grabbing Russ Ortiz as your fifth starter, you’re probably better off grabbing a guy like Tom Gordon or Akinori Otsuka. They’ll surprise you with some decent win production, scrape together a handful of saves, and their sub-1.00 WHIP in 90 innings will help your team a lot more than Ortiz’ 1.35-1.40 WHIP in 210 innings. While we haven’t focused much on middle relievers, we’re going to throw out a handful of names at the end of this week’s column that could help you bring down your WHIP.

Borderline Number Two Starters (Rounds 10-12): Chris Carpenter, Greg Maddux, Odalis Perez, Freddy Garcia, Brad Radke

Carpenter should win the Rodney Dangerfield “No respect” award for the 2005 fantasy season. He wasn’t a borderline #2 starter last season, but a borderline ace, and all of the numbers belie that fact. His strikeout totals were a bit low for an ace in fantasy-land, but he would have fanned 180 if he hadn’t missed September. If you see him sitting there in the tenth round (as I have in four drafts so far), don’t hesitate to grab him, and it doesn’t necessarily have to be just for his solid WHIP.

Greg Maddux consistently dominates in the category, primarily because of his ability to spot his pitches perfectly. He’s always amongst the league’s best in BB/9 IP, though he will allow a higher batting average than most of the guys in this group. Though he’s aging, Maddux’s legacy should continue for a couple of more seasons in Wrigley. He’ll help across the board, and has been available in the eleventh round in most drafts.

Odalis Perez would join Carpenter on the no-respect list, but he has two fatal flaws. One is almost entirely the fault of his team (no run support…. It’s still hard to picture a starter having a 3.25 ERA and making a full complement of starts going 7-6 in this day and age) and the other is that he doesn’t strike out enough hitters. The important thing to remember here is that he very rarely loses a hitter and usually holds the league below a .250 average against him. His WHIP should settle in the 1.15 range that it was in last year.

Freddy Garcia always posts a decent walk rate, though it’s never overwhelming. What pushed him onto our list last season was the fact that he held the league to a .242 average, about six points lower than his career average. This probably had quite a bit to do with the fact that he found his strikeout form for the first time in a few years (note that most of the top BAA pitchers were strikeout artists). If Garcia has his command down and is combining it with his overpowering stuff, he should leap to ace status as he enters his prime.

I’m cautioning most people to avoid Brad Radke from an overall status, and think that putting him in this borderline #2 starter category is a bit of a stretch. However, I’m confining myself based on the numbers that I’m seeing on where pitchers are going in drafts, and that’s where he fits. My problem is that he’s passing his prime and is coming off a career year. That said, WHIP has always been Radke’s predominant strength as a fantasy starter, and this is primarily because he rarely walks hitters. His .267 average against last season was six points better than his career average. Essentially, he should be Freddy Garcia with a slightly higher WHIP and a lot less strikeouts. Unfortunately, that usually leads to a lot more runs on the board for the opposition than anyone else in this group. Last year was the exception.

Number Three Starters (Rounds 13-15): Livan Hernandez, Jeremy Bonderman, Mark Buehrle, Zack Greinke, Rodrigo Lopez

Maybe there was something in the water in Montreal, but Livan Hernandez has never pitched better than he has in the last two years. The league’s average will be somewhere in the vicinity of .255 around him and he’ll walk just over three batters per nine innings. Perhaps most importantly, though, Hernandez will throw somewhere around 250 innings, and his WHIP will have a huge factor on how you finish because of his high innings count.

I was expecting Jeremy Bonderman to be one of the key pitchers we discussed last week. However, I didn’t think he’d make the list this week because of his slightly high walk rate. Upon further inspection, his 3.57 BB/9 IP weren’t horrible, and the fact that he lowered the league’s average against him from .294 to .242 despite having a horrible first half indicate that he should lower his WHIP significantly from the 1.31 it was a season ago. The goal we’re shooting for with all of these players is a 1.25 WHIP or better, and Bonderman should be right around there.

Mark Buehrle is another one of those aforementioned pitchers that are here primarily because of a strong walk rate. He won’t blow enough hitters away to keep his average against below .265, but the fact that he should take last season’s 1.87 BB/9 IP and duplicate it for the next five years or so mean that he’ll ordinarily keep that WHIP nice and low for you. His recent injury trouble should be dropping him a little further than he was going in most drafts, and though I do see Buehrle regressing just a touch in 2005, he could be a steal.

Zack Greinke didn’t make either of our lists for 2004 because he didn’t qualify for the ERA title. However, he should continue upon his course of becoming the most comparable pitcher currently in the big leagues to Greg Maddux (in his prime). Greinke showed last season that he won’t be afraid to come after hitters and should keep his record of pinpoint control in tact from his minor league career. He walked just 26 in 145 innings (1.61 BB/9 IP) and limited the league to a .256 average. It’s rare that you’ll find a rookie who will keep his WHIP in the 1.17 range that Greinke did last season, and that figure is likely to come down a bit as he gains more experience. Greinke should become a fixture in the top five in WHIP within the next two years.

Lopez’ inconsistent follow-up to his breakout 2002 campaign scares me a bit, but I have a feeling that what we saw out of him last season is the true Rodrigo Lopez. His WHIP may come down that notch or so to put him in around the 1.25 we’re looking for. He’s consistent with his walk rate (2.87), but tends to become extremely hittable at times. He’s capable of holding the league to a .245 average or so, and will need to do so to lower that WHIP.

Number Four Starters (Rounds 16-19): Jon Lieber, David Wells, Kevin Brown, Joel Pineiro, Bronson Arroyo, Brad Penny

In case you’re wondering how Lieber makes this list despite a .301 average against last season, it’s because he’s walked less than a batter per nine innings in his last two seasons. The .301 average should be an aberration, as he hadn’t pitched in a year and a half. Look for that to come down quite a bit and for his WHIP to come back down to its usual 1.15 level.

Like Lieber, David Wells has walked 40 batters in his past 400 innings. Though he should allow a higher batting average in Fenway than he did last season with the Padres, don’t bank on his WHIP going over 1.25. He’ll give you a little of everything except for strikeouts.

You’ll hear a lot of people tell you he’s injury prone. You’ll also hear a lot of people tell you he’s on his way out the door. You’ll even hear a lot of people tell you that he’s coming off of an awful season. That “awful” season ended with a 1.27 WHIP and 4.09 ERA. If Kevin Brown stays on the field for the Yankees this season, look out. He’ll be a borderline ace.

Bronson Arroyo can join Chris Carpenter in the Rodney Dangerfield club. Arroyo posted monster numbers in his first full season as a starter with the Sox, finishing the year with a 4.03 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Command used to be a problem for Arroyo (see his career with the Pirates), but he seems to have gotten it all under control (2.36 BB/9 IP in 2004). Though he may have to fight to hold down his rotation spot when Wade Miller comes back, Arroyo is definitely worth the gamble for your fantasy roster.

Brad Penny just needs to get and stay healthy to break out for good in fantasy-land this season. He finally rekindled the magic that first got his name out there in 2001 and has overpowering stuff that he has pretty good command of. His walk ratios don’t blow me away (2.83), but are more than adequate to make him a strong factor in the category if his stuff’s as unhittable as it is most of the time.

Number Five Starters (Rounds 20+): Randy Wolf, Jerome Williams, Eric Milton, Paul Byrd, Joe Blanton, Orlando Hernandez, Adam Eaton

Wolf may be among the five most underrated hurlers entering the 2005 campaign. He lowered his walk rate significantly last season to 2.37 and is just entering his prime. However, it came at a cost. Wolf, who almost has to have had some kind of injury bothering him for the past year and a half, allowed the league to hit 21 points higher than they have against him in his career in 2004, leading to a 1.32 WHIP in 2004. He was the best second-half pitcher in the league in 2001 and 2002 and an All-Star in 2003 before he fell apart. He should get it back and may be a borderline Number Two starter available really late in your draft.

Many will tiptoe around Jerome Williams because he’s coming off of an injury, but the kid developed a lot faster than most people expected and should already be a force on the hill. Despite struggling before his season was cut short, Williams finished the 2004 campaign with a 1.29 WHIP. His walk rate is a little higher than I’d like to see out of him, but should come down a bit as he grows more accustomed to throwing full seasons in the majors. He’s been great at holding the league to a .250 average so far in his career.

As those of you who have read this column before already know, I can’t stand Milton because of all the homers he gives up. That said, he was extremely effective at keeping runners off base during his career in Minnesota and should improve a bit upon his numbers from his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. The cost of grabbing him could be greater than some of the other pitchers we’ve mentioned because of his high ERA, but Milton should help you in a couple of categories.

Maybe it’s just because he doesn’t strike a whole lot of hitters out, but Paul Byrd seems to be constantly overlooked in fantasy drafts. Byrd has posted a sub-four ERA in each of his past two seasons and is a WHIP machine because of his tremendous walk rate. Byrd has walked just 1.49 batters per nine innings in his last two healthy seasons, and should be a tremendous steal who could provide a strong Number Three starter in mixed leagues at this point. This is where he’s going, though.

A’s rookie Joe Blanton projects as a Zack Greinke type, and his 1.73 walks per nine innings in the minors last season should speak volumes for what he’ll do in the category at the big league level. He’ll eventually turn into the right-handed Mark Mulder of the A’s new big three, and should typically lead the staff in WHIP. I honestly like Dan Haren and Dan Meyer better all-around in the long term, but Blanton will be very good pretty quickly.

Orlando Hernandez joins little brother Livan as another starter who is being extremely undervalued in most fantasy drafts this season. With a guaranteed rotation spot in Chicago and (hopefully) a clean bill of health, Hernandez should bring his walk rate back down to its usual level (3.00) and ordinarily holds the hitters to about a .240 average. If he stays healthy all year, he could be the steal of the draft.

If you’re looking for another pitcher I’ve been hating on all this preseason, let’s talk about Eaton. He just teases you with all that talent of his through one or two starts before blowing up for the next few weeks. The positive thing for Eaton is that, although his ERA regressed horribly in his second full season back from Tommy John surgery, he cut his walk rate all the way from 3.34 to 2.34 last season. The league hit thirteen points higher against him last year than they have in his career, and that figure should come down. However, every time I’ve seen Eaton do something he’s supposed to do, he always tends to fall apart, so be warned.

Middle Relievers that should help

The key to grabbing middle relievers in a fantasy draft is almost always to grab guys who won’t hurt you rather than guys who will help you. Unless your league has holds, there’s no real category that a middle reliever is going to carry for you, though there are plenty that they’ll be able to help you balance out. WHIP is typically the primary area that they’ll be able to help you.

Most of these names aren’t going to strike you as names that you haven’t already considered as late options. However, my suggestion to grab them over a starter who’s likely to hurt your numbers drastically in either of the two ratio categories (ERA/WHIP) may be something you don’t really consider often enough. As an example, in an AL-Only draft I was in last weekend, I drafted Tom Gordon ahead of Paul Byrd, who I have targeted as a great sleeper candidate this season.

You’d probably be hard-pressed to find a league that doesn’t at least see Gordon, Akinori Otsuka, and Juan Rincon (probably going a bit high because of his bizarre win total last year, but still worth a pick) go at some point in the mid-teen rounds. The rest of the middle relievers you see go in the mid-to-late teen rounds will be guys who are closer candidates like Mike Gonzalez and LaTroy Hawkins. All of these guys will provide great value even if they don’t end up saving more than a game or two and winning more than a handful of games.

Other great sources of WHIP out of the bullpen this season should be Kiko Calero (.176 BAA), Jesse Crain (future closer with big strikeout potential and a 1.08 WHIP in AAA last year), Mike Timlin (typically in the 1.10 range), Scott Linebrink, Ryan Madson, Brendan Donnelly, and Luis Ayala.

Finally, don’t forget your swingmen. These guys will accumulate a lot more innings than most of the relievers we’ve mentioned above, and some of them are actually effective enough so that they should be pitching in the rotation. Wilson Alvarez is the main one that comes to mind, but Scot Shields should also be a solid contributor in the category.