The Hook

The Hype Machine

Let's face it. Every year, three dozen players who are supposed to be studs seem to be on everyone's lips entering the season. We call them "sleepers" but what we should be calling them are products of the hype machine. All of these players that everyone uses as their sleepers are guys that they heard about somewhere. Some of you heard about them here on FIC. Others heard about them on one of the many other fantasy sites around the net. Still a few more of you just picked up on their numbers towards the end of last season and determined (for one reason or another) that the numbers suggested a possible breakthrough this season. I'd be willing to bet that even a handful of you have even seen some of the rookies or (gasp) second year vets play once or twice.

In today's world, where baseball sites (both real and fantasy alike) are all trying to go the extra mile to provide you with the next big thing before it's here, entirely too many fantasy owners rush to judgment on a player before actually seeing him do anything. Some of these guys who are going to be the next big thing will turn into Roy Oswalt. Some will turn into Ben Sheets. A few will have mediocre careers and turn into Jeff Weaver. The majority of them, however, will turn out to be Rick Ankiel... or Bud Smith... or Tim Redding... or Dewon Brazelton... well, you get the point. Insert your favorite former stud-to-be's name here!

What we're here to do this week is to separate a few of this year's real next big things from the players who are being vastly overhyped. Some of these players do have incredibly bright futures, even if they won't live up to the hype in 2006, while others have factors that should point to them simply fading away into (well... some of ours, at least) memory. For this reason, we're going to add a "hype meter" next to all of their names.

The hype meter shall consist of the level of the hype (1-100), the level they're going to reach on that hype meter (likely value based on the hype... if the number exceeds the hype meter [which I'm not sure it will], they will outperform the hype surrounding them this season), and a career level based on the hype meter, built in much the same way as the 2006 version. As we're a pitching column, we'll be sticking to the pitchers. I may write a guest column for On Deck with a similar premise later this week.

Felix Hernandez
Hype Machine: 100 2006 Chances: 80 Career Chances: 95

Hernandez enters the season as "the next Dwight Gooden," which is a ridiculous moniker for anyone to live up to. Gooden burst onto the scene by going 17-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 276 strikeouts in his rookie season. Nobody should be expecting anything resembling those numbers out of Hernandez in 2006. He'll turn into a legitimate superstar down the line, but will never develop into quite the pitching god that some people are making him out to be. A guy like Roger Clemens or Nolan Ryan seems to come around once in a generation, and people seem to think he's going to get there. His stuff, makeup, and dominance throughout his minor league career are great indicators of future success, but let's not put him into the Hall of Fame based on two months of MLB service time.

Francisco Liriano
Hype Machine: 80 2006 Chances: 45 Career Chances: 95

Liriano's stuff is a terrific indicator of future success, but he still has to improve on his command a bit to truly succeed at the big league level. He'll start the season in the bullpen, which drastically impacts his chances to succeed on a major scale in 2006. The Twins have three strong proven veterans (Johan Santana, Brad Radke, and Carlos Silva), one mediocre proven veteran (Kyle Lohse), and another rookie ahead of him in the rotation. Should anyone get hurt, Liriano would certainly be the first man called upon to take his place. Should the Twins do what they so desperately need to do and find a taker for Lohse, an opening could end up for him there. Chances are that he will end up in the rotation at some point this season, and become a fixture from that point on. The loss of his opportunity to start the season in the rotation could actually be a blessing for his entire career, though. He'll have a chance to be tutored by the player in the league who has the most comparable raw arsenal to him (Santana), and he won't have a whole lot of pressure on him early on. Provided that he keeps the ball down, he could be the best of this year's "big three" on the hype machine. Expect him to fix his issues and have a brilliant career... possibly better than Felix Hernandez.

Matt Cain
Hype Machine: 75 2006 Chances: 50 Career Chances: 65

Cain appears to have a bright career ahead of him, but has no business being mentioned in the same breath as Hernandez or Liriano. He has tremendous upside as a strikeout pitcher, but hasn't displayed nearly the command of his pitches that Hernandez or Liriano have, and actually walked 92 batters in just 192 innings between AAA and the majors last season. His strikeout upside could be in a similar range to Felix and Francisco, but his brief showing in the majors saw him fan just 5.86 batters per nine innings, while Hernandez fanned just under eight per nine innings and Liriano struck out 12.53 batters per nine innings. Cain's WHIP will be high for his first couple of seasons, though he should develop better control down the line. SBC Park will certainly help him to keep the ball in the yard.

Jon Papelbon
Hype Machine: 50 2006 Chances: 75 Career Chances: 85

Papelbon was drafted in a lot of leagues this season, though he probably slipped through the cracks quite a bit because he didn't have a defined role in Boston's pen. He might now. Papelbon, a college closer, has already notched his first save of the season, and manager Terry Francona is trying to do his best to play it down, so it probably actually means something (anyone interested in how I'm adding my own hype to this entry?). If Papelbon were to get and hold the closer's role all season, he would drastically outperform the expectations surrounding him. As for his career performance, Papelbon's future is in the rotation. We've seen a little more of what Papelbon can do, as he's two years older than any of the first three pitchers that we've profiled, and it's not hype. He's the real deal. Papelbon has a future as a borderline ace.

Scott Kazmir
Hype Machine: 70 2006 Chances: 55 Career Chances: 60

We're not just going to go through rookies, though I don't think I'll go beyond a fourth or fifth year player. Kazmir, who was once thought of as a potential closer because of his funky delivery, has big upside as a strikeout pitcher and should even perform with his ERA. His batting average on balls in play was .293 last year, which is ridiculously high for someone who's supposed to be on the brink of being an ace. Kazmir also still has some serious control issues, and led the majors with 100 walks in 2005. We'll see if he can fix these problems in 2006. You would like to think that he might be better off trying to pitch to contact a little more often, but after looking at that BIPA, I'm not so sure. He projects as a fourth starter in mixed leagues this season, though he's been drafted like a second or third starter. In his career, he looks like he might become a legitimate number two, but I've seen the Rays mess up another young pitcher or five, so I'm going to have him topping off as a borderline number three.

Zach Duke
Hype Machine: 75 2006 Chances: 45 Career Chances: 80

Some of the hype surrounding Duke subsided as the Spring wore on (might have had something to do with his Spring ERA), but he's still been taken as a borderline second starter in most mixed leagues on Yahoo. Duke had a brilliant rookie season, but you have to expect a bit of a dropoff. His DIPS ERA (independent of the defense around him) was nearly twice as high as his regular ERA (3.20 vs. 1.81). His BIPA wasn't really that far off of where it should have been (.279), and his command of his pitches is incredibly advanced for his age. Duke will struggle a bit as the league sees him a second time, but he has the opportunity to have a brilliant career.

John Lackey
Hype Machine: 75 2006 Chances: 70 Career Chances: 70

I've even seen some magazines hail him as a Cy Young contender in the American League. Seriously, folks. Lackey showed tremendous improvement as a strikeout pitcher in his fourth season, but that's about it. His WHIP dropped from 1.39 in 2004 to 1.33 in 2005, but he shaved a whole point off his ERA. It's likely that he'll continue along the path that bumped him from a number five starter prior to the 2005 season to a borderline number two by the end of the season. It's not likely that he'll improve upon it. Lackey should cut his WHIP just a tad this season, but his ERA should correct itself towards his WHIP a bit. He had some considerable luck (a la Carl Pavano in 2004) based on how similar his walk numbers and WHIP were, though his improvement as a strikeout artist cut severely into his batting average against. He could continue to be a 200 strikeout pitcher, which would make him a very valuable asset, but he's not an ace that you're sneaking out in the tenth round.

Dan Haren
Hype Machine: 65 2006 Chances: 75 Career Chances: 85

Haren is just entering his prime, and has proven that he can handle the load pitching in the majors for several years now. He's progressed naturally for each of the past four seasons, and has an ideal career path entering his prime. He should improve for one or two more seasons to establish himself as a legitimate number two starter and hold steady there for about five seasons. Three years running, he's improved on his BAA, K/9 IP, Groundball/Flyball ratio, ERA, and WHIP. He's the real deal, and the most likely breakout pitching candidate in baseball.

Chris Capuano
Hype Machine: 70 2006 Chances: 55 Career Chances: 65

Capuano had a brilliant 2005 season, or did he? He cut .07 off his WHIP and didn't even maintain a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. His batting average against dropped from .269 to .256, which was promising, but his Balls in Play Average remained about the same. Capuano's numbers certainly don't add up to the full point that he shaved off of his 2004 ERA, and there's likely to be a bit of a correction this season. We should find that he'll never repeat last season, but he'll come close several times over the next couple of seasons.

Cliff Lee
Hype Machine: 75 2006 Chances: 75 Career Chances: 75

Lee may be the most stable selection on this list, since he fell exactly where he should have (rather than above or below). Lee should be a solid second starter in fantasy leagues, and the market actually paid for him like he is (averaged going in the ninth round on Yahoo!). He's already hitting his prime, and is likely to duplicate last season's performance for about the next four or five seasons, though he won't improve upon it much. Lee's biggest asset may be that he's learned to induce contact to build his stamina, which means we're not likely to ever see any more than 175 strikeouts out of him in a single season, which knocks his value down a touch in the fantasy world.

Line of the Week

1.1 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 K, 1 HR

You've gotta love Barry Zito in April. Zito, who has a 5.22 career ERA in April and a 3.27 career ERA after April, showed us why he's never going to shake that "slow starter" label.

A "Closer" Look

Is the Keith Foulke watch over already? Terry Francona called on Jon Papelbon in the ninth with a one-run lead in Texas on Wednesday, and Papelbon shut the door emphatically. Francona said that a decision had not been made as to whether this would be permanent after the game, but he's just playing the part of the politician..... Eddie Guardado threw forty-one pitches and allowed three runs in his first appearance of the year on Tuesday, leading to George Sherril's first career save Wednesday. Don't expect this to become a regular gig for Sherril, as the M's would likely turn to either J.J. Putz or Rafael Soriano if Guardado were removed from the role (for whatever reason) on a more permanent basis. The Halos sent a bunch of lefties to the plate in the ninth, so they played the matchup.... Billy Wagner allowed a leadoff homer to Ryan Zimmerman in the ninth of a 9-5 loss to the Nationals, blowing his first save of the season. He should settle in, and did for the rest of his appearance.... Fernando Rodney looked strong in his first save opportunity with Todd Jones on the disabled list. Rodney struck out a batter in a perfect inning of work.... Tim Worrell struggled, but shut the door for the Giants in his first chance with Armando Benitez on the shelf. After last season, it can be expected that the Giants will do whatever they can not to turn the reins over to Tyler Walker... Same old Izzy. Jason Isringhausen loaded the bases with a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth in Philadelphia, but right when you thought your heart was going to explode, he induced a game-ending groundout.

Let's Play Two

American League

Erik Bedard - @ Tampa Bay, LOS ANGELES - ANAHEIM
Kris Benson - @ Tampa Bay, LOS ANGELES - ANAHEIM
Josh Beckett - TORONTO, SEATTLE
Freddy Garcia - Detroit, TORONTO
Jeremy Bonderman - CHICAGO WHITE SOX, CLEVELAND
Joe Mays - New York Yankees, Tampa Bay
John Lackey - TEXAS, Baltimore
Brad Radke - OAKLAND, NEW YORK YANKEES
Chien-Ming Wang - KANSAS CITY, Minnesota
Dan Haren - Minnesota, TEXAS
Jarrod Washburn - Cleveland, Boston
Seth McClung - BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY
Mark Hendrickson - BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY
Kameron Loe - Los Angeles - Anaheim, Oakland
Josh Towers - Boston, Chicago White Sox

Start of the Week

There's nobody with two particularly dominant starts coming up this week, so I'm going with my gut and taking Dan Haren. Outside of one inning, he looked amazing against the Yanks on Wednesday. He'll be facing the offensively challenged Twins early in the week before facing the Rangers at home. The Rangers lit Haren up last season, but he did have a 3.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at McAfee Coliseum.

National League

Orlando Hernandez - COLORADO, HOUSTON
Horacio Ramirez - PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO
Glendon Rusch - CINCINNATI, Pittsburgh
Bronson Arroyo - Chicago Cubs, St. Louis
Aaron Cook - Arizona, PHILADELPHIA
Brian Moehler - SAN DIEGO, WASHINGTON
Wandy Rodriguez - WASHINGTON, Arizona
Taylor Buchholz - San Francisco, Arizona
Odalis Perez - Pittsburgh, SAN FRANCISCO
Jae Seo - Pittsburgh, SAN FRANCISCO
Tomokazu Ohka - St. Louis, New York Mets
Pedro Martinez - Washington, MILWAUKEE
Brett Myers - Atlanta, Colorado
Zach Duke - LOS ANGELES, CHICAGO CUBS
Ian Snell - LOS ANGELES, CHICAGO CUBS
Shawn Estes - Florida, Atlanta
Matt Morris - HOUSTON, Los Angeles
Mark Mulder - MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI
John Patterson - Houston, Florida
Tony Armas - NEW YORK METS, Florida

Start of the Week

It's time to test the odd/even curse with Odalis Perez. 2006 is an even year, so we're betting that he's going to have a decent season (though Wednesday night's debut doesn't make me feel much better about that assumption). Perez struggled a bit against the Pirates last season, but he's likely to take solace in the fact that their top offseason acquisition (Sean Casey) is just two for nine against him lifetime. Perez looked good against the Giants last season as he went 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in three starts against them.

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