The Hook

Projected Lineup

LF Reed Johnson

RF Alex Rios

CF Vernon Wells

DH Frank Thomas

3B Troy Glaus

1B Lyle Overbay

C Gregg Zaun

2B Aaron Hill

SS Royce Clayton

If Alex Rios can find a way to build upon his amazing first half of 2006, this could easily end up being the second-best lineup in the AL East… Red Sox be damned! Johnson is a terrific average-hitter who doesn’t do much of anything else, but his on-base skills are crucial in front of a solid run producer like Rios and three outstanding ones in Wells, Thomas, and Glaus. Wells (and potentially Rios) is a top fantasy option capable of carrying your team in five categories, while both Thomas and Glaus combine terrific on-base skills with game-breaking power. Overbay gives the Jays a solid all-around bat capable of batting .300 with 25 homers, while Zaun is a quality backstop capable of double digit power. Hill would be best suited to hit in the two-hole in most lineups because of his high contact rate, but the fact that he doesn’t hit for much power lands him low with the Jays. Clayton… well… even the Yankees have a weak link.

Other Hitters To Watch

OF Matt Stairs

OF Adam Lind

Stairs will give the Jays a nice power-hitter off the bench, but not much more. He’s far from a threat to break the lineup unless injuries strike, and can really only cover first base or the corner outfield spots. Because of Reed Johnson’s outstanding 2006 effort, Lind, the organization’s top prospect, may start the year at AAA where he can get more regular at bats. He’s a terrific power prospect with tremendous discipline who Johnson won’t be able to hold off for long.

Starting Rotation

Roy Halladay

A.J. Burnett

John Thomson

Gustavo Chacin

Tomokazu Ohka

While there’s some definite injury risk here, the rotation could stack up as the best in the AL East. No matter how hard you argue, you’re not going to find a better starter in the American League (not named Johan Santana) than Halladay. He works fast, pitches deep into ballgames, has outstanding control, and can even manage his fair share of whiffs. Burnett missed much of the first half last season with elbow troubles, which still seemed to hinder him a bit upon his return. When he got going, however, he was an absolute beast, winning four of his final six starts with a 2.84 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Thomson comes over from Atlanta, where he’s proven to be a capable sinkerballer over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, he’s dealt with recent injury troubles himself, and threw just 80 innings last season. Chacin is a bit of a wildcard who can be dominant at times, but dealt with elbow injuries that sapped his effectiveness in 2006. Ohka is just solidly average to the core, but the Jays can live with that out of their number five starter.

Closer

B.J. Ryan

Other Bullpen Arms of Note

Brandon League

Jason Frasor

Jeremy Accardo

Since his dominant 2004 season pushed him into the closer’s role in Baltimore to begin the 2005 campaign, Ryan has done nothing but excel. The lefty has compiled a 1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over the past two seasons while converting 74 of 83 save opportunities. League gives the club a potentially dominant setup man in front of Ryan. Once considered the organization’s closer of the future, League fell out of favor early in 2005, but came back strong with a tremendous season in a middle relief role in 2006. He brings a solid strikeout rate, terrific control, and a ton of holds to the table if your league values them. Accardo should also prove useful in holds leagues, though his numbers aren’t likely to help you much. The same can be said about Frasor. While the Jays can be devastating in the end-game, they need some help in front of League and Ryan if they want to challenge the Yanks.

Position Battles

Reed Johnson vs. Adam Lind – Honestly, based on how Johnson played last season and based on the fact that the Jays feel like they can contend this season, Lind doesn’t have much of a chance to win the job. They’ll likely go with the veteran, who will provide them a nice on-base option in front of the power options further down the lineup. Monitor the situation, though. If Lind should win the job, he could immediately have value in single season leagues, and will definitely have plenty of value in keepers.

Royce Clayton vs. Russ Adams – Adams fell so far out of favor last season that he lost his job to John McDonald and was demoted to AAA. While McDonald will return to his old job as a utility infielder in 2007, the club brought in Royce Clayton to take over the shortstop job heading into 2007. If there’s anything that Clayton has proven in the past five years, it’s that he’ll often struggle to hit above his weight while providing no power and little speed. Adams has legitimate upside, and an amazing Spring would give him an opportunity to try and show it. If not, he’ll begin the year in AAA.

Sleepers

Alex Rios – Rios showed what he’s capable of in the first half last season, but never really seemed to recover in the second half after a staph infection cost him nearly a month. He’s a legit 20/20 threat entering the 2007 campaign who is capable of batting .300 for the second straight season.

Duds

Frank Thomas – I like Thomas… I really do. He’s going to have a second consecutive strong season after having fallen apart in 2004 and 2005. That said, don’t expect him to challenge the forty homer mark like he did last season. Toss in that he’s not nearly the average-hitter that he was earlier in his career, and he’s a two-category option (HR/RBI) who is only eligible at the utility position. It’s doubtful he should be taken in the top fifteen rounds in mixed league drafts, but he’ll likely go in the top ten.

Player to watch out for

Adam Lind – We’ve already talked about Lind a little, but let’s talk about why you’re going to be on the lookout for him. Between AA, AAA, and the Majors last season, Lind hit .341 with 26 homers in 507 at bats. While he appeared to be dominant at AA (.310/.357/.543), his late-season efforts said that he was just getting started. After posting a mediocre 25:87 walk to strikeout ratio in New Hampshire (AA), Lind showed tremendous improvement in Syracuse (AAA), walking nearly as many times (23) in 137 plate appearances as he did in 373 at the lower level. He also cut dramatically into his strikeout rate, actually walking more times at AAA (23) than he struck out (18). His late-season efforts with the big club hinted at his bright future as well, as he hit .367/.415/.600 with 2 homers in 60 at bats. Lind will be given every opportunity to win a spot with the big club to begin the 2007 season, but if the Jays can’t find regular at bats for him, they’ll likely send him to AAA. He’ll be up before long, though, and belongs on fantasy rosters in any format!

Projected Finish: 94-68, 2^nd AL East