Projected Lineup
SS Julio Lugo
1B Kevin Youkilis
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF J.D. Drew
C Jason Varitek
3B Mike Lowell
CF Coco Crisp
2B Dustin Pedroia
As Coco Crisp struggled throughout the 2006 season, the Red
Sox never really seemed to have anyone who truly fit the leadoff man mold. The offseason signing of Julio Lugo should
change that entering the 2007 season. Lugo
proved he can handle the job of being a leadoff man in Tampa
the past two years, displaying strong on-base skills, good speed on the
basepaths, and even a little bit of power.
Youkilis provides an ideal number two hitter with great discipline and
contact skills before the incomparable meat of the order. Papi and Ramirez have proven to be two of the
more dominant power bats in baseball for the better part of the decade, and
should only continue to make opposing pitchers cower in fear every time they
step to the plate. Drew and Lowell give
the club two fantastic doubles-hitters a little lower in the order, while Coco
Crisp has 20/20 potential out of the eight spot. Pedroia is clearly the weakest link, but he
has plenty of upside as a strong average-hitting middle infielder with a little
pop down the line.
Other Hitters To Watch
OF Wily Mo Pena
1B/OF Eric Hinske
Pena will serve as the club’s fourth outfielder, and still
has tremendous power despite considerable dropoffs in his home run totals the
past two seasons. Be warned, though:
he’s a free swinger, and his BIPA (Balls In Play Average) should drop
significantly enough to cut into that .300 average from last season. Hinske finally showed a little of the form
that led to his 2002 Rookie of the Year campaign last season. Though finding a way into a platoon role is
the best he can hope for, Hinske still has enough power to make a difference as
a fourth or fifth outfielder in AL Leagues.
Starting Rotation
Curt Schilling
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Papelbon
Tim Wakefield
After injuries destroyed his 2005 campaign, Schilling came back strong last season. The forty-year-old righthander certainly
isn’t the dominant Schilling that we saw for the better part of a decade, but
he remains a force capable of fifteen wins with an ERA around 4.00 and a nice,
low WHIP because of his outstanding control (28 BB in 204 innings last season).
Beckett struggled with his move to the AL
last season, struggling a little bit with his command as he walked a career
high 74 batters in 204 innings and
watched his HR against rate more than double.
A nice bounceback could be in store for Beckett as he adjusts,
though. The 26-year-old former World
Series MVP has front-line stuff and is just entering his prime. There is perhaps no bigger wildcard than
Matsuzaka entering the 2007 season. He
dominated in Japan
for years, and the assumption is that Matsuzaka will succeed more in the U.S.
than most Japanese transplants have because his stuff fits the profile of
American power pitchers. While this may
be true, don’t be prepared to overpay for him until you’ve seen him succeed in
the States.
After showing that he could be absolutely dominant as a
closer last season, Papelbon enters the season as another major wildcard
because of his move to the rotation. He
was fantastic as a starter in the minor leagues, and showed that he has
absolutely no fear of big league hitters in 2006. Expect him to perform like a borderline ace,
though his strikeout rate will drop significantly in the rotation. Since dominating in 2002 and 2003 for the Red
Sox, Wakefield has settled back to
earth as a mediocre strikeout pitcher who will keep an average 4.50 ERA and
1.30 WHIP. That’s not bad for the back
of your rotation, considering that he should rack up plenty of wins with a
dominant offense behind him. He could also figure into the closing mix at some
point if Jon Lester is ready to go. All
in all, the Sox don’t have a ton of weaknesses in the rotation, though they
have a lot of question marks.
Closer
Joel Pineiro
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Brendan Donnelly
Craig Hansen
Mike Timlin
Julian Tavarez
Position Battles
Closer Committee – Joel
Pineiro enters the Spring as the favorite to close, though there is little to
indicate that he should have any success in that (or any other) role based on
his recent production. Still, it’s
almost difficult to find a name in this group that’s really going to
surprise. Brendan Donnelly had his fifth
sub-four ERA in five years as a big leaguer, but also watched his numbers
decline across the board for the third year in a row. Craig Hansen has been bandied about as a
potential closer of the future for the past couple of years, but he kept a 6.63
ERA in his first extended stint in the big leagues last season, and the Sox
would rather move him into the role gradually (i.e., after he’s shown he can
dominate at the level). Both Timlin and Tavarez
are aging, neither is coming off of a particularly strong season, and neither
has had more than moderate success in the role.
Pineiro, a converted starter, has shown an ability to dominate, but it’s
been nearly three years since he’s done so.
It’s going to get ugly in Boston
unless they acquire an arm capable of handling the ninth inning duties.
Sleepers
Wily Mo Pena – If
all that’s keeping you from a regular job in a tremendous hitter’s park and one
of the best lineups in baseball is J.D. Drew, it’s time to get excited. If Pena manages to get 300+ at bats in
Fenway, he’s a threat for 20 homers.
Josh Beckett –
Beckett got knocked around last season, finishing with a 5.01 ERA. However, his 1.29 WHIP was more than
stomachable. If he can find a way to cut
the home runs allowed (36 last season in 204 innings), Beckett should cut
significantly into that ERA. While it’s
doubtful he wins more than the sixteen games he did last year, bringing the
secondary numbers down alone should make him a valuable second or third starter
who people may be wary of after last season.
Coco Crisp –After coming over from Cleveland
to assume the leadoff role in Boston,
Crisp made it just two weeks into the season before breaking a finger on his
left hand. The injury kept him out for
over a month, and seemed to sap his effectiveness upon his return. The 27-year-old centerfielder went on to
finish well short of the .295+ average he had posted in 2004 and 2005, while he
hit just half as many homers as he had in either of the previous two
seasons. While the signing of Julio Lugo
during the offseason means Crisp will no longer bat leadoff, he still has 20/20
potential and can hit for average lower in the order.
Duds
J.D. Drew – Drew
may be coming off of a career-high 146 games last season, but that means very
little. After opting out of a contract
that was already paying him too much, Drew signed a massive 5 year, $70 million
deal with the Red Sox. Since 1999, Gimpy
Drew has averaged just 96.25 games played in odd seasons, failing to ever put
together back to back seasons of more than 109 games. Consider that he’s coming off of a season
that saw him average the least home runs per at bat that he has since 1999, and
he’s liable to produce significantly below his draft position.
Daisuke Matsuzaka –
Don’t get me wrong… Matsuzaka is a supreme talent who is going to have an
outstanding big league career. The
problem is, he may get smacked around a little more than most people are
expecting in his rookie year. Almost
everyone seems to be describing Matsuzaka as someone who will develop into a
borderline ace with some experience in the U.S.,
but is probably a number two or three now.
This, of course, doesn’t explain why a handful of ranking systems are
putting him just outside of the top ten.
Someone is going to overpay in your draft for a top forty starter and
treat him like he’s a top twenty option.
Player to Watch For
Jon Lester had a
solid rookie effort, winning seven of his nine decisions despite a gaudy 4.76
ERA before missing the season’s final month when it was discovered that he had
Lymphoma. Now cancer free after the
offseason, Lester isn’t likely to be ready to go for Opening Day, but will
likely be the first man in if there’s an injury in the rotation. The lefty prospect owned AA in 2005 and
dominated in AAA Pawtucket for half of the 2006 campaign. He has a bright future, and would certainly
be in the rotation if the Sox knew he was at 100% to start the year.
Projected Finish: 89-73, 3rd AL East
Fantasy Baseball 
