The Hook

Projected Lineup

CF Rocco Baldelli

LF Carl Crawford

RF Delmon Young

2B Jorge Cantu

DH Jonny Gomes

1B Ty Wigginton

3B Akinori Iwamura

C Dioner Navarro

SS Ben Zobrist/B.J. Upton

Like Carl Crawford, Baldelli is probably better suited for a spot lower in the order where he can focus on driving in runs a little more often. However, he certainly fits the bill as a leadoff man with tremendous speed, good power, and even improving discipline. Crawford gives the Rays another terrific speed option who rarely fails to put the ball in play. When he does, he’s a threat to beat any groundball out, and sets the table nicely. Young projects as a 30/30 man down the line, and he’s going to get his first chance to showcase his talent as a starter this season. His terrific contact rates and improving power are perfect in the three-hole. Cantu, Gomes, and Wigginton give the club some nice middle of the order power. Iwamura was the best offensive and defensive third baseman in Japan, winning five gold gloves while with the Yakult Swallows while hitting thirty homers in each of the past three years. The most interesting thing to watch in the preseason will be to see how the Rays intend to use power-speed threat B.J. Upton. Upton’s glove may not be big-league ready, but his bat is.

Other Hitters To Watch

OF Greg Norton

Norton got more playing time than he had since 1999 last season, and rewarded the Rays by batting .296 with 17 homers. He has good pop and decent average-hitting ability, but will likely serve as the club’s fifth outfielder heading into camp. He’s AL-Only fodder at best.

Starting Rotation

Scott Kazmir

Jae Seo

James Shields

Casey Fossum

Jason Hammel/J.P. Howell

Kazmir has proven to be a stud the past two years when healthy, but he missed six weeks at the end of the year with stiffness in his shoulder. He’s a massive strikeout pitcher whose control is still a bit of a work in progress. Kazmir is unhittable when he’s on, though, and should post a mid-three ERA and win more than a dozen games… Seo was unable to build off of his breakthrough 2005 campaign, going just 3-11 between Los Angeles and Tampa last season with a 5.33 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He should improve enough to be a reliable big league starter in 2007, but not enough to warrant any fantasy waves… Shields had a terrific start in the big leagues, but floundered down the stretch. Expect him to put together a significantly better effort now that he’s more accustomed to the workload. He’ll make for a decent fourth or fifth starter in AL-Only Leagues… The fact that his 2005 effort almost looks like a career year says volumes about Casey Fossum. Why? He went 8-12 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. You can do better, even in deep AL-Only Leagues… Hammel still has a little promise he could deliver on in the big leagues, while Howell was incredibly tough for the Rays down the stretch in 2006. Neither really warrants fantasy consideration until we’ve seen a little more, and both may just be holding a place in the rotation until Jeff Niemann is ready.

Closer

Seth McClung

Other Bullpen Arms of Note

Shawn Camp

Dan Miceli

Chad Orvella

There may not be a worse bullpen in baseball in 2007, and you’d be hard pressed to find one that was worse in 2006. McClung got a chance to close late in the year, and though he converted six of seven chances, he still had a 4.43 ERA and 1.93 WHIP as a reliever (which were markedly better than his numbers as a starter)…. Camp and Miceli each saw time in the closer’s role, but neither thrived there. Miceli blew three of seven chances while keeping a 1.41 WHIP and Camp finished the year with a 4.58 ERA and 1.49 WHIP… Orvella was just plain awful in the first half, but did at least throw seven strong innings in August before blowing up and seeing his season cut short in early September. While the lineup shows a lot of promise, and even the starting staff looks to be coming together a little, there’s little hope in the bullpen for the Rays.

Position Battles

Ben Zobrist vs. B.J. Upton – Upton’s glove has cost him the starting shortstop job the past two years, but he could be entering a make or break campaign. Though it’s long been considered a better option if he would accept a move to the outfield, even that wouldn’t help Upton because of the Rays’ depth at the position. Akinori Iwamura’s presence at the hot corner is going to give Upton a sink or swim ultimatum. He can either learn to be adequate defensively at shortstop or hope for a trade to a different organization. Zobrist has a considerable edge with the glove and provides a decent average-hitting bat with a little speed. Fantasy owners should clearly be pulling for Upton to win the job.

Jason Hammel vs. J.P. Howell – Howell lost a lot of velocity off of his fastball last season, but actually seemed to become a better pitcher for it. The 24-year-old former Royals’ farmhand dominated in the strikeout department both at the big league and AAA levels while showing significantly better command than he had earlier in his career. Most importantly, he looked strong down the stretch, allowing just a 3.86 ERA in September. Hammel showed plenty of promise in AAA, striking out nearly a batter an inning. However, he was rushed to the big leagues a bit, and got absolutely wrecked in a trial with the Rays. Neither figures to have much fantasy value, though the winner could end up being a sneaky source of strikeouts in deep AL-Only Leagues.

Sleepers

Rocco Baldelli – After missing all of 2005 and most of the first half last season, Baldelli posted a tremendous second half. Long known for his outstanding tools, Baldelli hit .297 with 12 homers and 9 steals in the second half, and enters 2007 as a potential 25/25 outfielder on the rise.

Jorge Cantu – After an outstanding .286-28-117 effort in his first full season, Cantu dealt with a broken foot that stole more than a month from him and seemed to sap his effectiveness upon his return. A big power producer for a middle infielder, Cantu figures to slide a bit because of his poor 2006 season, but should rebound with a terrific showing in 2007.

Duds

Scott Kazmir – He’s an outstanding starter when healthy, but we saw exactly what all the pundits were worried about last season. Kazmir has a small frame, and many thought that a move to the bullpen might serve him better in the long-term. With shoulder problems hindering him late last season and slowing the start of his offseason throwing program a bit, he’ll be lucky to have the stamina built up to throw 200 innings.

Jonny Gomes – His power’s intriguing, and many are going to say that he simply can’t hit as poorly for average as he did last season. They’d be wrong. His incredibly long swing has led to 229 strikeouts in 733 at bats the past two seasons. All that happened last season was that his BIPA came down from astronomical to normal, leading to a horrible .216 average.

Player to watch for

Jeff Niemann – Despite missing half of the 2006 season as he recovered from shoulder surgery, Niemann showed tremendous improvement at AA. He struck out over a batter an inning while keeping an outstanding 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The 6’9 righty brings tremendous 95 MPH gas and has good sink on all of his pitches. With weaknesses littering their entire rotation, Niemann will compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, but is more likely to reach the club later in the year as they move him cautiously through the system.

Projected Finish: 72-90, 4^th AL East