Projected Lineup
2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
SS Miguel Tejada
1B Aubrey Huff
RF Nick Markakis
DH Jay Gibbons
C Ramon Hernandez
LF Jay Payton
CF Corey Patterson
As scary as the rest of the AL East can be, it doesn’t seem
like the Orioles seem to have a major weakness anywhere in the lineup. Though he struggles a bit against lefties,
Roberts is an ideal leadoff man,
displaying quality average-hitting ability with good pop, terrific speed, and
fine plate discipline. Unlike the 2006
campaign, he’ll be entering 2007 completely healthy, and should see his both
his average and his power production benefit because of it. Mora appears to clearly be in decline. His numbers dropped off significantly for the
second straight year, as he failed to hit twenty homers for the first time in
three years and watched his average dip to .279. At 35, his short window may be closing. However, he does what a two-hole hitter
should do, putting the bat on the ball most of the time. Tejada and Huff give the club two proven power
hitters capable of 30/100 campaigns in the middle of the order, while Markakis
certainly looks to have that upside after a dominant second half as a
rookie. Gibbons, Hernandez, and Payton
also have good pop in the lower part of the order, but won’t hit exceptionally
well for average or steal many bases.
While Roberts is a top-notch leadoff man, the O’s have another guy who
could handle the role pretty well for most teams in Patterson, who stole a
career-best 45 bases in 2006.
Other Hitters To Watch
Kevin Millar
Brandon Fahey
Though he boosted up his power numbers a little, Millar pretty much mirrored his
2005 campaign with the Red Sox in his first season in Baltimore. Millar hit an identical .272 to what he did
in 2005 while hitting a few less doubles and a few more home runs.(15) On the positive side, he did prove better in
the run-production department, both scoring and driving in about ten more runs
in twenty less at bats. Fahey proved
capable as a utility man last season after having a strong start with Brian
Roberts on the disabled list. Known as a
solid average-hitter throughout his minor league career with decent speed and
little pop, he didn’t make it translate much (.235 with 2 homers and 3 steals)
at the big league level. He did probably
do enough to get himself another shot as a backup middle infielder who can
handle the outfield if necessary.
Starting Rotation
Erik Bedard
Daniel Cabrera
Jaret Wright
Adam Loewen
Steve Trachsel
Though it took him half a year longer than many fantasy
owners would have liked, Erik Bedard built upon his strong first half of 2005
to stay solid over a full season last year.
The wiry lefty, who had never won more than six games in a season, won
fifteen times in 2006 while keeping a strong 3.76 ERA and proving more than
adequate as a strikeout pitcher (171 in 196 innings)... Cabrera
showed off his big strikeout potential for the second straight year, but he
also led the AL with 104 walks in
just 148 innings… After missing most of the 2005 season, Wright had mixed results last season in the
Yankee rotation. He won eleven games
while cutting his ERA dramatically (4.49).
However, his 1.52 WHIP was still high even for an AL-Only starter, and
his strikeout totals certainly didn’t blow anyone away… Considering that he was
just 21 for most of the season and
that he started off poorly, Loewen had a fine rookie campaign. The former fourth overall pick closed the
year strong with a 5-3 record, a 4.50 ERA, and a 1.35 WHIP in August and
September… Trachsel enters camp as a late addition after Kris Benson had
rotator cuff surgery in mid-February.
Though he managed fifteen wins for the Mets in 2006, he kept absolutely
awful secondary numbers (4.97 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) that certainly don’t figure to
improve in the league’s best offensive division.
Closer
Chris Ray
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Danys Baez
Chad Bradford
Jamie Walker
Despite a less than ideal strikeout rate, Ray was
outstanding in his first season closing for the Orioles. The 25-year-old got the job done in 33 of 38
opportunities while keeping a tremendous ERA (2.73) and WHIP (1.09). He did struggle a bit with the longball, though
(10 HR Allowed in 66 IP)… Baez failed miserably when handed the closing role in
Los Angeles before eventually being
shipped out to Atlanta. A return to a division he performed well
against in 2004 and 2005 as Tampa Bay’s
closer might help him turn things around, though he’ll need an injury from Ray
to move into the closer’s role… Knuckle-dragging Chad Bradford may have had his
best season in 2006, finishing with his best ERA (2.90) and WHIP (1.16) since
his breakout 2001 campaign in Oakland….
Walker had his fifth straight great
year as the primary lefty out of the Tigers bullpen, earning himself a hefty
raise to hold the same job in Baltimore. Though his innings are limited, Walker
hasn’t had an ERA above 3.71 or a WHIP above 1.27 since 2002. In leagues that value holds, he can be gold.
Position Battles
Kevin Millar vs. Jay
Gibbons & Aubrey Huff – Millar’s going to have to hit to earn a
consistent spot in the lineup this season, as help was brought in at each of
his two positions. Jay Payton could
certainly force Millar to try to work his way into a platoon at first base,
where Gibbons and Huff are each expected to split time between the field and
the DH role. The incumbent, Millar could
well end up being third on the depth chart by the end of the Spring with a pair
of accomplished power hitters aiming for his job.
Steve Trachsel vs.
Hayden Penn – Penn was terrific in AAA last season, but got absolutely lit
up in six starts with the O’s late in the year.
With Kris Benson electing for season-ending surgery, Penn will be given
every opportunity to win the fifth starter’s slot. However, after the club brought in the
veteran Trachsel almost immediately upon the news that Benson’s season would be
lost, you have to think that Trash is the favorite entering camp. Neither figure to have any fantasy value.
Sleepers
Brian Roberts – After
failing to homer until June 28, Roberts showed flashes of his early-season
power surge in 2005. The switch-hitting
second baseman, who never looked like his arm was fully healthy in the first
half after dislocating his elbow late in 2005, took off from there. Roberts hit nine homers in the season’s final
three months, while displaying an above-average contact rate throughout the
entire season and looking like a demon on the basepaths. Completely healthy heading into 2007, Roberts
should have little trouble establishing himself as a top five second baseman,
but will probably slip a few rounds later than he should.
Daniel Cabrera –
Anybody who can grace the triple digits on the radar gun and post more than a
strikeout an inning is usually worth a look.
However, Cabrera’s control was so bad in the first half that he spent
over a month in the minors trying to find his release point. He rebounded in the second half, cutting his
walk rate from a laughable 0.87/IP in the first half to an almost passable
.50/IP when he came back up. If he can
just find a way to figure out where the ball is going when he lets it go,
Cabrera could become a monster.
Duds
Melvin Mora –
After signing a sizable three-year deal early last season, Mora proceeded to
fall apart. Mora owners, who saw him
finish second in the AL with a
.340 average in 2002, watched in horror as his batting average stabilized in
the .275 range. His power numbers also
dropped off dramatically, as he hit just 16 dingers after blasting 27 each in
2004 and 2005. Now 35, we shouldn’t be
surprised if Mora duplicates last season’s numbers, but he’s certainly unlikely
to improve on him. Don’t buy any buzz
that he’s a great bounceback candidate in Spring Training.
Jaret Wright –
Wright will enter the year as someone considered to be a solid AL-Only option after
winning eleven games and keeping an ERA around 4.50 last year. Unfortunately, his ERA certainly didn’t fit
the number of baserunners he allowed (1.52 WHIP) and his strikeout numbers were
borderline pitiful. Look for the ERA to
rise to compensate his WHIP, while the win total will come down without the
powerful Yankee lineup behind him.
Player to watch out for
Garrett Olson – By
no means is Olson their best pitching prospect in the system, but he appears to
be their most polished. Olson had a
strong showing in the first half at High-A ball before tossing in a strong
second half for Bowie in AA. The 23-year-old lefty finished strong,
combining to go 10-9 with a 3.10 ERA while displaying fantastic control (50
walks) and good potential as a strikeout pitcher (162 strikeouts) in 165 minor
league innings.
Projected Finish: 70-92, 5th AL East
Fantasy Baseball 
