The Hook

Projected Lineup

SS Jose Reyes

C Paul Lo Duca

CF Carlos Beltran

1B Carlos Delgado

3B David Wright

LF Moises Alou

RF Shawn Green

2B Jose Valentin

Reyes emerged as one of the top players in all of baseball in 2006, turning his average-hitting woes around while showing significant improvement with his plate discipline and power. He also stole 64 bases, marking the second straight season that he swiped 60 or more… Lo Duca is perfect for the two-hole as a free swinger with a tremendous contract rate and strong fundamentals… Beltran re-found the power that he showed in 2004 with the Royals and Astros as he climbed to the top of the outfield rankings. Though he doesn’t run nearly as much as he used to, Beltran still seems like a solid bet to hit 35 homers with 20 steals… Delgado had a down year in terms of batting average, but finished the season with his highest home run total since 2003 in Toronto, bashing 38 while providing his typical 115 RBI season… Wright continued to dominate as a power/speed threat at the hot corner, notching his first 20/20 season while batting over .300 for the second straight season. Watch for him to amp up the power a touch, though it’s doubtful he’ll ever top the low twenties with his stolen base totals… Alou missed nearly half the season with back and ankle troubles, but still managed to hit .300 for the second straight season while bashing 22 homers in San Francisco. Though he’s in the twilight of his career, he’s still a fit as a lower tier number two in standard mixed leagues… Green watched his power numbers drop for the second straight season between Arizona and New York, though he still has enough left in the tank to challenge the twenty homer mark in 2007. He’ll be a solid NL-Only grab… At 36, Valentin had his best season since 2000, combining his usual solid power numbers with a sudden ability to hit for average. Expect a significant dropoff in 2007.

Other Hitters To Watch

OF Endy Chavez

OF Ben Johnson

OF Lastings Milledge

Chavez proved to be a solid source of steals (12) and batting average (.306) as the fourth outfielder in New York. Provided he doesn’t get exposed by too much playing time, he can be a useful fourth outfielder who provides an excellent glove in the corners… Johnson’s reward for proving to be a decent fourth outfielder in San Diego was a move to New York, where he’ll have even more trouble climbing up the depth chart… The Mets’ top prospect, Milledge had a solid showing in 2006, batting .241 with 4 homers in 166 at bats. He’ll likely start the year in AAA, but will get the call if anyone in the starting outfield (yes… that includes the aging and injury prone Green and Alou) goes down to injury.

Starting Rotation

Tom Glavine

Orlando Hernandez

John Maine

Oliver Perez

Mike Pelfrey/Pedro Martinez

Despite his age and a slight dropoff in his stuff, Glavine had a third straight terrific year for the Mets, winning fifteen games while keeping a solid 3.82 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. More importantly, he struck out more batters than he had in any season since 2000, finishing with 132 on the year… El Duque was mediocre to start the year in Arizona, but found new life in New York, cutting both his walk rate and his BAA significantly to finish with a 4.08 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his final twenty starts. Never a monster strikeout pitcher in his peak years, Hernandez suddenly found his form in that department last season, fanning 9.1 batters per 9 innings… Former Orioles’ farmhand John Maine started slow when he got the call to New York, but closed strong with a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in the second half for the Mets as he solidified his spot in the rotation for 2007… Oliver Perez had a second straight awful season, failing to show any of the promise that he did in his breakout 2004 campaign. The power lefty struggled to find the strike zone, walking 68 in 112.6 IP. When he found the zone, it still didn’t seem to help much, as he allowed 20 homers! With ace Pedro Martinez expected to miss about half the season with rotator cuff surgery, the fifth starter’s slot could fall to any number of guys. Mike Pelfrey had an outstanding professional debut, allowing just a 2.44 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP while posting a 109:33 K:BB ratio as he breezed through three levels of the system.

Closer

Billy Wagner

Other Bullpen Arms of Note

Duaner Sanchez

Aaron Heilman

Guilermo Mota

Ambiorix Burgos

While you’d never know it from speaking to Mets’ fans, Wagner had another terrific season, converting 40 of 45 save chances while maintaining a terrific 2.24 ERA and a solid enough 1.11 WHIP to go with his usual 11+ K/9 IP ratio. However, the 1.11 WHIP was a significant rise from what we’ve come to expect from Wagner, and may be a serious indicator that he’s losing a little something off of his fastball… Sanchez was a terrific setup man for Wagner until he separated his shoulder in a car accident. The 27-year-old power righty figures to again be a monster in holds leagues in 2007 with a strong strikeout rate, a solid ERA, and a WHIP you can live with. Just watch him early, as he may struggle a bit upon his return… Heilman went from a future starter to an elite arm out of the bullpen in 2005, and continued to emerge as a terrific reliever in 2006. Allowed to work in shorter bursts, Heilman has shown dramatic improvement in spotting his fastball, which has led to significant improvement in both his WHIP and his strikeout numbers. With question marks littering the rotation, though, he could see a move to the fifth spot if Sanchez is at 100%.... Mota seemed well on his way to reviving with the Mets, posting a 1.00 ERA and winning three games after a late-season deal sent him there from Cleveland. However, he was suspended for steroid use in November and will be ineligible for the first fifty games in 2007… Burgos has an extreme power arm, though he never really seemed to be able to use it properly after being rushed through the Royals’ system. He has the potential to strike out a batter an inning, and just has to show improvement in his third full season at just 23.

Position Battles

Mike Pelfrey vs. Field – With Pedro out until midseason and veteran Dave Williams likely out until at least June, Pelfrey is the clear favorite to win the fifth spot in the rotation because he’s more polished than any of the other minor league arms in the system. He’ll likely face a challenge from freshly signed Chan Ho Park in the preseason for the fifth spot in the rotation, and may lose out because the Mets would prefer to give him a full season in AAA. Still, Pelfrey has to be considered the favorite entering Spring Training because of his outstanding power arsenal and dominant numbers in his first professional season. Aaron Heilman has voiced that he’d like to compete for the vacant spot, but is likely ticketed for the bullpen with Sanchez coming off of a shoulder injury and Mota suspended for fifty games.

Sleepers

Lastings Milledge – He may not be ready to dominate like so many Mets’ fans think he could, but with considerable injury risks like Green and Alou covering the corner outfield slots, we’re probably going to find out in 2007. Milledge has legit 20/20 potential down the line, and could prove to be a nice fantasy find when (not if) Green or Alou go down to injury.

Oliver Perez – It would be difficult for him to be worse than he has been the past two years, and Perez has teased us with his potential in the past. He has 200 strikeout upside if he can turn things around, provided you can stomach what figures to be a high ERA and WHIP. I’m not saying that you should go overboard, but you have to consider him in the final few rounds because of what he’s done in the past… particularly considering that he’s just 26 and could end up being a front-line starter.

Duds

Orlando Hernandez – The Mets could really be in trouble if El Duque doesn’t perform despite one of the most dominant lineups in baseball. With Tom Glavine the only real lock to succeed in the rotation (Maine/Perez/Pelfrey remain largely unproven), the Mets are going to need stellar contributions from their top two. He’ll be solid, but won’t post quite the ratios he did after the trade to the Mets last season, and his strikeout rate is likely to return to its more normal 7.0 K/9 IP. Draft him as a fourth or fifth starter, though he may be confused with a lower tier number two because of his strikeout production in 2006.

Jose Valentin – Very few experts seem to consider him anything more than a top 25 second baseman, and they’re pretty much dead on. Valentin’s strikeout rate is likely to revert to its former levels, which means even a terrific BIPA isn’t likely to help him repeat his .271 average from a year ago. While his power may improve, it likely won’t be enough to offset the drop in average.

Player to watch for

Phillip Humber – After missing much of 2005 and most of last season with Tommy John surgery, Humber returned late in the year to dominate AA, striking out 36 batters in 34+ innings while allowing just a 2.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The 26-year-old righty has an outstanding power arsenal, and should begin the season at AAA Norfolk. Provided that he can excel in his first full season back, Humber should expect a call-up if an injury occurs in the rotation, if Oliver Perez continues to struggle, or if Mike Pelfrey is unable to succeed in the fifth spot.

Projected Finish: 98-64, 1^st NL East