Projected Lineup
2B Kelly Johnson
SS Edgar Renteria
3B Chipper Jones
CF Andruw Jones
C Brian McCann
RF Jeff Francoeur
LF Ryan Langerhans
1B Scott Thorman
The confusion about the order will have everything to do
with who wins the second base job.
Johnson fits the leadoff role, and has to be the clear favorite to win
the job in the Spring because the Braves seem to lack
a typical leadoff hitter. Renteria may
handle the duties atop the lineup if Johnson doesn’t win the starting second
base job. Prado doesn’t have much of a
resume as a hitter, while Aybar’s value would lie
more towards the bottom of the order.
They say you should never assume (well… you know why!), but the
assumption is that Johnson is going to have every opportunity to win the
starting second base gig, and if he does…. Look out!
After missing most of 2006 because of Tommy John Surgery, Kelly
Johnson enters the 2007 season with a ton of sleeper potential because of the
vacated second base job. Johnson, who
has come up through the system as an outfielder, has been working at second
since late last Fall to try and learn the position, and would be a nearly
perfect fit for the Braves as a leadoff man.
While he’s never proven to be a dominant base-stealing threat in the
minors, he has a terrific eye at the plate for a youngster and even has some
pop in his bat (9 homers in 240 AB in 2005).
Expect him to win the job this Spring, and
expect this dual threat outfielder to be a late steal as a middle infielder…. Edgar Renteria rebounded from a disappointing season in Boston
to post his best season since 2003. Renteria’s ability to hit for average and power returned as
he re-joined the National League, and he even splashed in seventeen steals to
go along with it. Expect another strong
showing… Chipper Jones spent three stints on the disabled list last season, but
still produced his typical, fantastic numbers when he was in the lineup. Jones finished with his best batting average
(.324) since 2002 and his best slugging percentage (.596) since 2001 as he
jacked 26 bombs and drove in 86 runs despite playing in just 110 games. Rumor has it that he’s doing some work in the
offseason to take care of the constant foot pains that have bothered him the
past few seasons, so expect a slightly healthier 2007 from him… When you draft Andruw
Jones, you know you’re sacrificing batting average a bit. However, he tends to be worth it. Jones has averaged 46 homers and 129 RBI the
past two seasons, and he’s headed for his walk year. Expect another strong effort from Jones, even
if he’ll only bat a touch above .260…. Who’s the best catcher that got almost
no publicity last season? Brian McCann! McCann
emerged as the second best fantasy catcher in baseball last season, and topped
the NL rankings as he hit .333 and cranked 24 homers despite missing a few
weeks with a sprained ankle in late May.
Only Joe Mauer should be drafted ahead of him at the position… Jeff
Francoeur came down to earth after a startling rookie season, and the problem
was exactly what we expected it would be.
His absolute lack of plate discipline hurt him in the first half, but he
did give a few indications that he might not be allergic to walks over the last
few months. Unfortunately, his improved
discipline didn’t equate to a better batting average or more power. He should show a little more development this
season, possibly cranking 30 dingers for the first time…. Ryan Langerhans
regressed in his second season, but should end up getting another crack at the
left field job. He doesn’t have enough
power or speed to be of much value to fantasy owners, though, and will likely
fall into another platoon situation in left… Scott Thorman enters the Spring as the clear favorite to win the first base job after
the club dealt Adam LaRoche to Pittsburgh
for some bullpen help. Thorman is a
big-time power prospect who has a good batting eye and a fair ability to hit
for average. In a short trial with the
Braves last season, Thorman hit five dingers and batted .234 in 128 AB. His value in the preseason should be limited
to NL leagues.
Other Hitters To Watch
Willie Aybar
Martin Prado
Matt Diaz
Craig Wilson
Willie Aybar won’t blow you away with anything but his
versatility. Should Johnson flounder in
his efforts to win the second-base job, Aybar’s bat
could win him the job over Martin Prado.
Aybar has decent pop for someone who qualifies at a middle infield spot,
and has been a consistently solid average-hitter throughout his minor league
(and brief major league) career. He’s a
solid fit as a MI in NL leagues, and will be a utility man even if he loses out
on the second base job… Prado’s only chance to win a
spot is his glove. He produces little
offensively, even for a second baseman.
There’s no fantasy value here… Matt
Diaz doesn’t figure to have much value in mixed leagues, but he’s worth a flyer
in NL leagues. As a righty platoon man
in left field and the fourth outfielder, Diaz made a name for himself last
season, batting .327 with 7 dingers and 5 stolen bases. Again, his value is limited to NL leagues,
but he’s worth a look…. Craig Wilson should prove to be a terrific fallback
option for Thorman if he doesn’t pan out at first base, while he’s more than
capable of filling in at either of the corner outfield positions if
necessary. A good professional hitter,
Wilson has enough pop to jack twenty homers given 500 AB.
Starting Rotation
John Smoltz
Tim Hudson
Mike Hampton
Chuck James
Kyle Davies
They’re not the fearsome group that the Braves had for so
long, but they can still do some damage.
Smoltz is still a dominant force, while Hudson and Hampton have had
dominant stretches in the past. James is
en route to a breakout season after a fantastic under-the-radar 2006, while
Davies… well… he’s loaded with potential that’s looking awfully untapped so
far.
In some ways, John Smoltz didn’t look quite as brilliant in
his second season since returning to the rotation as he did in the first (his
ERA jumped nearly half a point and his WHIP jumped from 1.14 to 1.19). Still, he won 16 games and struck out 211
batters on the year, again establishing himself as a top five fantasy starter… Tim
Hudson is coming off of a career-worst season, but should be able to re-group a
bit in 2007. He’s just 30, is flat in
the middle of his prime, and he’s shown in the past that he can be a Cy Young caliber pitcher.
Hudson’s primary problem
last season was his control, as he walked 3.25/9 IP (up significantly from his
last season in Oakland, when he
walked just 2.10/9 IP). Unfortunately,
this same problem hindered him in 2005 with the Braves. Hudson
has never been a power pitcher who can rely on his pure stuff, and he had a lot
of trouble locating last season. Draft
him as a borderline number three starter, but nothing more…. Mike Hampton is
expected to be ready for Spring Training after missing the entire 2006 season
because of Tommy John Surgery. A healthy
Hampton is a gamble for your
fantasy rotation, as he always tends to struggle with walks, carries a high
WHIP, and doesn’t strike nearly enough hitters out to be a dominant fantasy
pitcher. He’s a number five option at
best in fantasy circles, and probably shouldn’t be drafted as anything more
than a bench pitcher considering the fact that he’s unlikely to be 100%.... Chuck
James had a fantastic rookie effort, going 11-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.24
WHIP. While it looked like the league
may have figured him out in July, James came back strong in the season’s final
two months, going 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in August and September. He struck out 6.88 batters per nine innings
last season, and figures to improve upon that number a touch as he gets more
comfortable attacking big league hitters.
James is a young star on the rise who should
probably be drafted right in the same range as Hudson,
if not a little beforehand…. After tearing the league apart in his first two
months of 2005, Kyle Davies has done nothing to show that he’ll have much
staying power as a fantasy starter in the majors. Since his fantastic May of 2005, Davies has
finished just two of his past eight months in the majors with an ERA of under 6.00. Toss in
that he missed much of last season due to a tear in his groin, and you can
probably do better elsewhere.
Closer
Bob Wickman
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Rafael Soriano
Mike Gonzalez
Joey Devine
Oscar Villarreal
Wickman will undoubtedly begin the season as the closer in Atlanta,
but he’s going to have a handful of guys gunning for his job by the end of the
year. Wickman, who the Braves were able
to re-sign on the cheap after his acquisition from Cleveland
last season, has proven to be a solid, dependable option for saves over the
past decade. He is not, however, anywhere near an elite fantasy closer. His strikeout numbers are poor and he keeps a
high WHIP. He usually gets the job done
in a pinch, though…. Rafael Soriano poses a right-handed threat to Wickman who
was acquired in an offseason deal that sent Horacio Ramirez to Seattle. Soriano posted a dominant full season after
showcasing that he was all the way back from Tommy John surgery late in the
2005 campaign. He brings big strikeout
numbers, keeps a nice, low batting average against, and should rack up tons of
holds. If there’s something to worry
about, it’s that he tends to lose control of his overpowering fastball at
times, which leads to a lot of walks and a handful of homers…. Mike Gonzalez
gives the Braves a left-handed threat
to Wickman as well. Gonzalez, who was
acquired in mid-January for Adam LaRoche, was a perfect 24-for-24 as the
Pirates’ closer in 2006, and also brings that strikeout dynamic that Wickman
tends to lack. Again, he has some issues
with walking a few too many batters (31 in 54 innings last season), though he
makes up for it with big-time power pitching and keeps the ball in the
yard. He’ll be a stud lefty setup man…
After a brilliant Spring in 2006, Joey Devine fell off
the map when he got lit up in his first few appearances in the regular
season. After heading to the minors, it
was learned that he has a chronic back problem that was hindering him. He has the ability to be a fine fantasy
contributor, but with the improved bullpen in front of Wickman, probably won’t
get a chance to show it off… Oscar Villarreal was an absolute monster because of his win total in 2006, as he
went 9-1 on the year. The long man in
the ‘pen, Villarreal should vulture a few again this in 2007.
Projected Finish: 86-76, 3rd NL East
Fantasy Baseball 
