Projected Lineup
SS Hanley Ramirez
2B Dan Uggla
3B Miguel Cabrera
1B Mike Jacobs
LF Josh Willingham
RF Jeremy Hermida
C Miguel Olivo
CF Alex Sanchez
Ramirez was outstanding throughout the entire 2006 season,
displaying a solid ability to hit for average and combining it with his
terrific speed (51 steals) and surprising power (17 homers) to earn the NL
Rookie of the Year honors. While his
numbers aren’t likely to continue to shoot up in his second season, he’ll
likely only suffer a small letdown before stardom sets in in
2008… Uggla hit three more home runs (27) than he did in any of his minor
league seasons in 2006 while emerging as a four-category force in the middle
infield. After vastly outproducing even the loftiest expectations anyone could
have set, he’s bound to regress a bit in 2007…. Cabrera is one of the top five
talents in the game, and can carry a fantasy team in every category except for
steals. He’s a legit top five overall
pick at the hot corner… Jacobs had a decent first full season, showing enough
power to warrant consideration as a lower-tier first baseman in NL
Leagues. Expect bigger things from him
in 2007 as he could challenge the thirty homer mark… Willingham loses the
primary thing that made him a fantasy star in 2006 (his catcher eligibility),
but he actually put up numbers to warrant a job as a quality fourth outfielder
in mixed leagues. He has tremendous
power, good discipline, and even keeps a pretty strong contact rate. Just 28, he’s right in the middle of his
prime… There’s no way to look at Jeremy Hermida’s
season other than calling it a colossal disappointment. After displaying tremendous patience,
emerging power, and a strong contact rate throughout his minor league career,
Hermida dealt with an oblique injury early on and seemed to be playing behind
the eight ball from that point on. 2007
figures to be a make or break season in his development, as he needs to find
the eye that helped him skip AAA and bring back his power-hitting days from the
minors as well… Olivo proved to be a fantastic power-hitting option in his
first season in Florida, jacking
sixteen bombs in 430 at bats. His power
alone makes him worth a look in NL Leagues, though he’ll need to do a little
more in the batting average department to become a solid starter in mixed
leagues… Alex Sanchez enters camp as the favorite to win the starting
centerfield job simply because of how much speed he can add in the lineup. Unfortunately, his lack of discipline will
keep him batting low in the order if he should win the job, though he is
capable of hitting for a quality average.
Other Hitters To Watch
UT Alfredo Amezaga
3B Aaron Boone
OF Cody Ross
Amezaga eventually filled the
vacant centerfield job last season, and rewarded the Marlins with a decent .332
OBP and twenty steals. He offers little
in terms of power, and is likely headed back to a utility role on the infield…
Boone has proven to be a capable 20/20 man in the past at both second and third
base, and will probably slot in as the backup first baseman behind Mike
Jacobs. At the tail end of his career
and in a backup role, he probably won’t have much to offer fantasy owners… Ross
showed decent power after coming over from Cincinnati,
blasting 11 homers in just 255 at bats.
However, he combined it with a .212 average to keep himself from having
anything resembling fantasy value. He’ll
serve as a fourth outfielder, and will have to fight off Reggie Abercrombie and
Joe Borchard to earn that role.
Starting Rotation
Dontrelle Willis
Josh Johnson
Scott Olsen
Anibal Sanchez
Ricky Nolasco
The D-Train had a down year after a dominant 2005 campaign,
though he did settle down towards the end of the season with a 3.17 ERA and
1.33 WHIP in August and September. His
primary problem was that he kept a high walk rate for most of the season,
finishing with 28 more walks in 13 less innings than he did in 2005… Johnson
didn’t exactly finish strong, and his ERA (3.10) seemed considerably low when
you tossed in his 1.30 WHIP, but he had a terrific rookie showing all the same. The youngster struck out 7.6 batters per 9
innings while keeping a terrific .236 batting average against. If he can cut into his walk rate a touch,
he’s a monster waiting to happen… Unlike Johnson, Olsen’s 4.04 ERA belied his
1.30 WHIP. Fortunately, he showed plenty
of dominance in other areas, striking out 8.3 batters per 9 innings while
keeping a tremendous .239 BAA himself.
Again, his walk rate is the only issue, and is a flaw that figures to
correct itself over time… The other
big-league ready player the Fish received in the Josh Beckett deal (err… Hanley
Ramirez!), Anibal Sanchez came out of nowhere last season to throw the first
no-hitter since 2004. He wasn’t so bad
outside of that outing either, keeping an outstanding 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while
going 10-3 in seventeen starts. Sanchez
enters the 2007 season as a lock for the rotation, though the league should
figure him out a little more the second time around… Nolasco had an up and down
season as the fifth starter in the rotation, but will hold onto it entering
camp because nobody else has proven to be ready to handle the job. Also considered a potential closer, Nolasco
could have the chance to make the move to the ninth inning if another young arm
can step up.
Closer
Taylor Tankersley
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Kevin Gregg
Henry Owens
Renyel Pinto
The bullpen could well be the undoing of this club. They lack a proven closer, and intend to run
with lefty Taylor Tankersley to start the year.
Tankersley had a solid enough showing as the lefty in the pen last
season, striking out more than a batter an inning and keeping a strong 2.86
ERA. However, he’ll need to cut his WHIP
significantly to survive in the ninth inning… Kevin Gregg is one of the few
Marlins’ relievers who doesn’t look like he has much
of a chance to close. He’s proven to be
effective, if unspectacular, as a middle reliever/setup man
in Anaheim the past few years….
Owens comes over from New York,
where he enjoyed tremendous success as the closer in AA Binghamton. A right-hander, he fits the traditional
closer’s mold a bit more, and struck out a ridiculous 16.65 batters per 9
innings in AA last year… Pinto projects as a possible starter down the line,
though he was effective out of the bullpen in his first chance at the big
league level last season. Pinto compiled
a solid 3.03 ERA in the big leagues, but his insane walk rate (27 in 29+
innings) will keep him from having anything more than a middle relief role.
Position Battles
Taylor Tankersley vs.
Field – Tankersley’s main competition for the
closing role will come from a rookie with four big league innings under his
belt (Owens) and a middling starter who figures to remain in the rotation
because of a lack of better options (Nolasco).
He can rest safely knowing that the man the Fish brought in as their
closer of the future (Travis Bowyer) just had arthroscopic surgery after
missing the entire 2006 season with a shoulder injury, and likely won’t pitch
this season either. Tank is going to
close, though you really don’t want him on your fantasy squad.
Alex Sanchez vs.
Field – Sanchez only signed a minor league deal, but he enters camp as the
overwhelming favorite to win the centerfield job because of his experience in
the role. Alfredo Amezaga
did a fine job there last season, but the Marlins know that his value lies more
as a backup who can cover three infield positions. Reggie Abercrombie, Joe Borchard,
and Cody Ross have all earned the failed prospect tag at this point. Sanchez has the speed to cover the gaps in
spacious Dolphins Stadium, and should be rewarded with another chance to start
at the big league level.
Ricky Nolasco vs.
Field – The Fish would prefer to move Nolasco to the bullpen, where they
figure he’ll be more effective in short stints.
However, they’ll need one of a handful of their other starters in the
high minors (Yusmiero Petit, Jose Garcia, Sergio Mitre) to step up this Spring if they want to move
him there. The expectation is that
they’ll keep Nolasco in the rotation as the fifth starter until someone else
develops.
Sleepers
Henry Owens –
Believe what you will about how Tankersley’s going to
succeed as the closer, but I’m not buying it.
Owens had a monster season in AA last year for the Mets’ organization,
and the club will bring him to camp a near cinch to make the 25-man roster in
the bullpen. He has more experience
closing than anyone else on the Marlins’ roster, even if it wasn’t in the major
leagues.
Jeremy Hermida –
Chalk last year up to injury, and expect a terrific bounceback from one of the
NL’s Rookie of the Year favorites entering last season. He figures to improve tremendously upon his
plate discipline in his second full season while re-finding the power/speed
combo that made him one of the best prospects in baseball heading into 2006.
Duds
Taylor Tankersley –
Tankersley struggles with the walk (26 of them in 41 innings last season),
which is something that a big league closer simply can’t afford to do. He’ll begin the year as the Marlins’ closer,
but will likely fall into a committee after a couple of early-season
blowups.
Dan Uggla – Uggla
looked like he was completely done developing prior to a breakout 2006
campaign, his first in the big leagues.
He should continue to hit for solid power in the low twenties with a
decent enough average in the .270 range.
Just expect a slight decline rather than a slight increase and you’ll be
OK. You won’t be drafting him, but
you’ll be just fine….
Player to watch for
Jason Stokes –
Though a strong Spring still left him short of the roster
to kick off 2006 and he missed most
of the season in AAA because of back problems, Stokes is hitting that age where
the Marlins have to let him sink or swim.
A bigtime power prospect as a corner infielder, Stokes hit 28 homers in
440 at bats between AA and AAA in 2005, and will get another look in Spring
Training entering 2007. If he can stay
healthy and continue to mash at AAA, he won’t be down for long.
Projected Finish: 77-85, 4th NL East
Fantasy Baseball 
