Projected Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
LF David Dellucci/Jason Michaels
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Casey Blake/Ryan Garko
RF Trot Nixon/Casey Blake
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Andy Marte/Casey Blake
2B Josh Barfield
It’s amazing looking at the Indians’ lineup that they
finished just 78-84 last season despite outscoring their opponents by 98
runs. The lineup certainly wasn’t to
blame, as they finished second in the majors with 870 runs last season. Sizemore sets the table perfectly, though
fantasy owners might be happier if he hit a little lower in the order to bump
his RBI production. After he led the
league in runs scored (134) last season, we’ll just have to take the good with
the bad. He has terrific power and speed
atop the Tribe’s lineup. David Dellucci
is the second straight Phillies’ outfielder the Indians have poached in an
effort to improve their left field situation.
While his power is more suited towards a lower spot in the order, he’ll
likely slide into the two-hole because of the depth. If the Indians’ record had matched their run
differential, Justin Morneau would not have won the MVP last season. Travis Hafner was far and away the top player in the AL last season, finishing tied
for the league lead in OBP (.439) and a runaway number one in slugging
percentage (.659). I don’t care whether
he has a position… you want him late in the first round! Victor Martinez has watched his power decline
in each of the past two seasons, though he’s improved upon his average to make
up for it. He’s an elite run-producer at
a thin position… Casey Blake figures to
see plenty of time all around the diamond, though he’ll likely be the starter
at first base most of the time. If Blake
could have stayed healthy last season, he could easily have been in line for
his first thirty homer campaign. Ryan
Garko provides a nice backup option who should see a lot of time against
lefties… When Garko plays, it won’t be Blake coming out of the lineup, but Trot
Nixon. Nixon kills righties, and should
only prove to further strengthen last season’s number two offense. Blake will keep his power bat in the lineup
and make the move when the Tribe is facing a lefty… One of the strange parts
about Cleveland’s outstanding
offense last season was that their third best run-producer from 2005 had an
absolutely miserable season. Jhonny
Peralta could be one of the sleepers of the year, and has the ability to hit 25
homers as a middle infielder… Marte and Barfield both have tremendous upside entering
the 2007 season at the back of the order.
As much as you have to love that lineup in New
York, this may be the best offense in baseball in
2007.
Other Hitters To Watch
Kelly Shoppach
The Indians have their weaknesses pretty well disguised, and
will have a platoon option backing up nearly every position entering the 2007
season. The lone exception is behind the
dish. Shoppach has good power, and hit 3
homers in 110 at bats last season.
However, behind Victor Martinez, he’s not going to see much action.
Starting Rotation
C.C. Sabathia
Cliff Lee
Jake Westbrook
Jeremy Sowers
Paul Byrd
Though his win total didn’t reflect it, Sabathia had (by
far) his best season as a big-leaguer in 2007.
He’s shown dramatic improvement to both his control and his strikeout
rate in the past two years, and is finally fulfilling the promise of being a
bona fide ace…. After a brilliant 2005, Lee regressed to the mean a bit last
season. He’s watched his strikeout rate
decline two years running, and looked awfully hittable for the Tribe last
season, allowing a .278 BAA. On the plus
side, he was significantly better in the second half last season, and closed
like a house afire with a 4-1, 3.03, 1.19 September… Though Westbrook shaved a
quarter of a point off his ERA from 2005, a disturbing trend continued as his
WHIP rose significantly for the second straight season, primarily due to an
awful .296 BAA. He’s heavily reliant
upon his defense, as he pitches to contact with his sinker most of the time…
Sowers had a magnificent rookie effort, even if he didn’t show much in the
strikeout department. The Tribe’s top
prospect kept a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP as a rookie, and figures to add a little
bit in the strikeout department as he continues to develop… Apart from the fact
that he finished above .500 (10-9), there are few positives to find in Paul
Byrd’s game from last season. He had
trouble keeping the ball down at times (26 HR/All.) and even watched his walk
rate rise dramatically while his strikeout rate dipped for the second straight
season… If there’s an issue with the rotation as a whole, it’s that too many of
their pitchers are heavily reliant upon their defense (aka, not enough power
pitchers). Still, we’ve seen this work
for other teams (errr.. St. Louis Cardinals?), and there’s no reason to think
it can’t in Cleveland.
Closer
Joe Borowski
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Fernando Cabrera
Rafael Betancourt
Roberto Hernandez
Jason Davis
The bullpen was the weakest link in Cleveland
last season, and while they made a few moves (adding Borowski, Foulke, and
Hernandez) in the offseason to try to address it, I’m not sure they’ll
succeed. At best, Borowski is a
league-average closer who (like the starters) often has to rely too much on his
defense. His stuff isn’t off the charts
good, which has led to a BAA around .250 throughout most of his career. As closers go, that’s Todd Jones’ quality
stuff, though Borowski hasn’t had nearly as much success in his career as Jones
has… Though he entered the 2006 campaign with tremendous upside, Cabrera had an absolutely horrible year, finishing with a 5.19 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He struggled mightily with the walk and the
longball in 2006, and will have to prove that he’s establishing better command
before he can regain his status as the closer of the future. If there’s one guy to believe in with this
bullpen, it’s Cabrera… Though his strikeout rate dropped significantly in 2006,
Betancourt still had a fine season. He’s
solidifying himself as an option that doesn’t allow many baserunners (1.11 WHIP
in 2006 after a 1.09 WHIP in 2005), which is ideal for a fantasy reliever. If he can just find a way to lower his
HR/Allowed rate and bring back his old strikeout dominance, he could find his
way to the back of this bullpen.
Position Battles
Joe Borowski vs.
Keith Foulke vs. Field – As the only member on the staff who was a closer
anywhere last season, Borowski enters camp as the favorite to work the ninth in
Cleveland in 2007. However, he’s far from a lock, and the fact
that the Tribe also brought in former Red Sox, White Sox, and A’s closer Keith
Foulke has to prove that they’re aware of that.
Unfortunately, Foulke retired, but Eric Wedge stated prior to his retirement that he may
consider going with a committee. There are a
handful of younger power arms (Fernando Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt, Jason Davis)
who would fit the role more traditionally than either Borowski.
Sleepers
Cliff Lee – Lee
was so strong in 2005 that many people were proclaiming him a Cy Young
darkhorse last season, but he struggled out of the gate and had a down
year. Just 28, Lee may find that 2005
will be the best season he ever has, but he’s likely to show us that he has a
little more in the tank entering the 2007 season. Don’t be surprised if he finishes with a
sub-4.00 ERA and a WHIP in the 1.25 range.
Jhonny Peralta –
Peralta was a monster in his first full season in 2005, bashing 24 homers while
proving to be a valuable run-producer with 78 RBI. However, he seemed to fall apart at the seams
last season, losing 135 points off of his slugging percentage while hitting
just over half (13) the homers that he did just a season before. Just 24, Peralta isn’t on the downside of his
career, and you can expect a bounceback, particularly with the lineup
protection he’ll have in Cleveland.
Josh Barfield – As
a rookie, Barfield hit 13 homers and stole 21 bases calling Petco home. Just imagine what could happen if he played
in a park that was even neutral. In
Jacobs Field, he will! Expect him to
challenge, and possibly reach, the 20/20 club.
Duds
Ryan Garko – Garko
enters the season high on many sleeper lists after driving in 45 runs in just
50 games for the Tribe last season.
However, the offseason additions of Trot Nixon and David Dellucci mean
that Casey Blake is going to see most of the time at first base and push Garko
into a platoon role. What’s the problem? Garko’s glove! The converted catcher had six errors in
limited action at first last season.
Joe Borowski –
Most places are touting Borowski as the closer (including ourselves) entering
the season, but he’s likely going to end up splitting the job. Don’t pay for him like he’s a top twenty
closer, though the Tribe will surely have plenty of save opportunities for some
lucky guy at the back of the bullpen.
Player to watch for
Adam Miller – Miller
was dominant for AA Akron, winning the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year
honors after going 15-6 with a 2.75 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a dominant 157:43
K:BB ratio in 153+ innings. The
22-year-old righthander should start the year in Buffalo,
but will be on call if something should happen to anyone in the rotation.
Projected Finish: 96-66, 1st AL Central
Fantasy Baseball 
