Projected Lineup
2B Luis Castillo
SS Jason Bartlett
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
CF Torii Hunter
DH Jason Kubel
LF Rondell White
3B Nick Punto
Though he ran more often in 2006 than he did in 2005,
Castillo continued to look like he’s more of a number two hitter (ideal contact
rates, mediocre everywhere else with the bat) than anything else. However, with the loss of Shannon Stewart due
to free agency, he’ll be asked to bat out of the leadoff spot all year…. Bartlett failed to make the club out of
Spring Training in 2006, but eventually found his stroke in AAA and earned a
call in the middle of June. From there,
he didn’t stop hitting until September.
He could fit in the number nine hole as a 1A leadoff man, though his
upside and contact rate could certainly slot him into the two-hole as well…
Mauer is an ideal number three hitter, displaying tremendous gap power and
emerging home run power to go with fantastic bat speed and a patient eye at the
plate… Cuddyer finally stuck as the regular right fielder last season, and
displayed adequate power and quality average-hitting skills to fill the cleanup
role… Morneau just looked most comfortable batting out of the fifth spot, and
figures to remain there because of how well he performed. The Twins’ best power-hitter in twenty years
is coming off of an MVP campaign… Hunter’s always displayed 30/30 potential,
and finally lived up to half of it last season.
Don’t be shocked if he challenges the thirty homer plateau again… Kubel
struggled coming back from a knee injury that cost him all of the 2005 season,
but will enter 2007 as the starting DH.
He has 30 homer upside down the line and was a tremendous average-hitter
in the minors… Rondell White is coming off of a
strong second half (.321/.354/.538), but has a lengthy injury history in left….
Punto is in the lineup more for his glove than anything else, but managed to
hit .290 last season.
Other Hitters To Watch
OF Lew Ford
1B Phil Nevin
OF Jason Tyner
Ford lost playing time after a poor 2005 campaign and
watched his numbers drop like a rock for the second straight season. A solid glove in the outfield figures to be
the only thing keeping him on the roster at this point… Nevin is in the
twilight of his career, and while he hit 22 homers in just 397 at bats last
season, he also hit just .239 and was traded twice…. Tyner hit well for average
for the second consecutive season after escaping Tampa
Bay, but he didn’t use his elite
speed much on the basepaths (four steals) and has absolutely nothing that
resembles power.
Starting Rotation
Johan Santana
Boof Bonser
Carlos Silva
Matt Garza
Ramon Ortiz/Sidney Ponson
Santana is far and away the best pitcher in fantasy
baseball, and won the major-league triple crown (Wins, Strikeouts, ERA) last
season. He’ll challenge twenty wins with
an ERA well under 3.00, a WHIP right around 1.00, and 230+ strikeouts barring
injury… Bonser struggled initially, but looked like the potential ace we’ve all
heard about down the stretch in September (4-1, 2.63 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 30 K in 37
IP)… Silva is known for two things. He
almost never walks batters, but the strikeout is equally rare. Provided the infield defense is playing
strong behind him, he could slot in as a depth option in mixed leagues… Garza
dominated three levels, breezing through high-A, AA, and AAA last season, but
failed to impress at the big league level.
He’s capable of that ideal strikeout an inning, and will have a chance
to win his way into the rotation this Spring…. Ortiz, Ponson, and Scott Baker will
compete with Garza for the fourth and fifth spots. While Garza is an intriguing fantasy option
if he wins a spot, none of the final three figure to have value outside of deep
AL Leagues.
Closer
Joe Nathan
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Jesse Crain
Juan Rincon
Dennys Reyes
Pat Neshek
After averaging 41 saves, a 1.97 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP the
past three years, Nathan enters the season atop our closer rankings. He’s an absolute fantasy monster who should
dominate four categories (ERA, WHIP, Saves, K’s), and is even coming off of
back to back seven win seasons… Crain struggled out of the gate last season,
but turned it on in the second half to solidify himself as one of the better
setup men in the game, while even correcting his major fantasy flaw throughout
much of the campaign: his poor strikeout rate.
The 25-year-old projects as a future closer down the line, is capable of
providing help in the win department, and should be a monster in leagues that
value holds… Rincon’s performance as a force in strikeout leagues has declined
in consecutive seasons, but he remains a quality fantasy option who will keep a
decent ERA, a solid WHIP, and rack up the holds in front of Nathan… Dennys
Reyes was the breakout lefty of 2006, finishing the year with a ridiculous ERA
(0.89) that was lower than his tremendous WHIP (0.99). He’s used predominantly as a lefty
specialist, which will add up to a ton of holds if your league values them… Pat
Neshek received a call at midseason and immediately made himself a huge force
in strikeout leagues. The 26-year-old
righty fanned a ridiculous 12.9 batters per 9 innings with the big club, and
even showed the amazing command the organization is known for, walking just 6
batters in 37 innings as he kept a terrific 0.78 WHIP.
Position Battles
Jason Kubel vs. Phil
Nevin – The club would definitely prefer to see Kubel, a bigtime prospect
who can hit for both power and average, win out here. However, Nevin’s
experience and the fact that Kubel has dealt with a bum knee since late in the
2004 season make him a serious gamble.
Kubel figures to have little trouble winning the job outright in Spring
Training, but Nevin will be right there to pick up the pieces if he struggles
early on.
Matt Garza vs. Scott
Baker, Sidney Ponson, & Ramon Ortiz – In a perfect world, the Twins
would like to see Garza and Baker win out, giving them a rotation that could be
loaded with upside behind ace Johan Santana.
However, neither Baker nor Garza showed much at the big league level
last season. Garza has outstanding power
pitching splits, and figures to have little trouble earning one of the two
spots heading into Opening Day. However,
one of the veterans (Ponson or Ortiz) will likely land the fifth spot so that
the defending AL Central Champs can feel comfortable that they’ll make another
run in 2007. Only Garza figures to have
any real fantasy value.
Sleepers
Jason Bartlett – Bartlett
isn’t going to blow anyone away from a power standpoint, but he has turned in a
couple of 35+ steal seasons in the minors. Stolen bases are always at a premium, and this
rising shortstop has the ability to hit .300 with thirty of them as soon as
this season.
Jason Kubel –
After lost seasons in 2005 (injury) and 2006 (poor performance), Kubel enters
the year considerably lower on fantasy cheat sheets than he should. The 24-year-old has a powerful left-handed
bat, which he showed off as he absolutely wrecked three levels on his way to a
call-up in 2004 (.347 with 24 homers and 45 doubles between AA, AAA, and the
majors in 2004). Chalk last year’s
disappointment up to the fact that his knee still seemed to bother him
throughout much of the year, and expect him to ascend the ranks as the Twins
keep him fresh at the DH spot in 2007.
Matt Garza – A
lot of pitching prospects struggle in their first effort in the big leagues,
primarily because they’re trying to be too precise with their location. Garza looked like he was aiming a little too
much after a late call-up sent him to Minnesota,
but we should be focusing on the 23-year-old’s minor league performance. He breezed through three levels last season,
keeping a dominant 1.99 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 152:34 strikeout to walk ratio
down below. Expect him to gain a little
more confidence attacking big league hitters in his first full season, and
expect him to be a solid third or fourth fantasy starter in mixed leagues.
Duds
Justin Morneau –
Not to say he’s going to be bad, but don’t expect him to hit .321 again. Morneau may actually improve upon his home
run total (34) from last season, but will likely be overvalued in drafts
because of his MVP campaign in 2006.
Michael Cuddyer –
Is he an outstanding fantasy option as a third outfielder? Yes.
Is he going to both score and drive in 100 runs this season despite
all-around numbers that didn’t underlie that performance last season? Absolutely not. Bank on Cuddyer turning into a solid .280
hitter with 25 homer power and the capability to score 75 runs while driving in
90+. That’s a small step down from last
season’s performance.
Player to watch for
Matt Moses – A
power-hitting third baseman, Moses dealt with back problems that caused him to
have a down year at AA New Britain. The
22-year-old still managed to hit 15 homers, but struggled to a .249/.303/.386
campaign in his first full season at AA.
He’ll surely be asked to repeat the level to start the year, but a
strong start could push him to AAA before you know it. He’ll likely receive a cup of coffee towards
the end of the year before making a bigger impact in 2008.
Projected Finish: 90-72, 2nd AL Central
Fantasy Baseball 
