Projected Lineup
CF Chris B. Young
2B Orlando Hudson
1B Conor Jackson
3B Chad Tracy
LF Eric Byrnes
RF Carlos Quentin
C Miguel Montero/Chris Snyder
SS Stephen Drew
There is, perhaps, no lineup you’ll find in all of baseball
with more “upside” or potential than you’ll find in Arizona
this season. Chris Young, Carlos Quentin,
and Stephen Drew were all successful in trial performances as rookies last
season, and figure to start carrying a lot more of the workload this
season. Even the team’s veteran core (if
you can call it that) is still developing, as Chad Tracy (26) will be entering
just his fourth season in the big leagues and Conor Jackson (24) impressed as
the starter at first base in his first full season last year. Alas, the fact that the Diamondbacks are
going with a full-fledged youth movement doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t
contend this season.
Young gives them a legitimate power/speed threat in center
field who has averaged 24 homers and 27 stolen bases
over the past three years, advancing a level during each season. While his downfall may be his batting average
(.272 over that span), he has shown strong on-base skills apart from just
reaching via the hit (walked once every 8.09 plate appearances) and will be
given the opportunity to lead off at
least against lefties…. Hudson is
far from a world-beater at the plate, but he’s more than adequate to fit in the
two-hole. He
usually puts the ball in play, and even has a little bit of pop (15 homers last
season). He’s far from an upper tier
option at second base in fantasy terms, but he does provide gold glove defense
and will give you middling power production and a handful of stolen bases….
Entering last season, the sky looked like the limit for Chad Tracy after he’d hit .308 with 27 homers in
2005. However, he regressed back to the
mean a bit. Tracy, who was revered as
someone who might challenge for some batting titles down the road, lost a
little bit off of his power stroke (20 homers) and suddenly struggled with
strikeouts for the first time in his career.
He’s at his best when he’s not
swinging for the fences, which may have been a major contributor to last
season’s disappointment. There were
still some positives to take out of last season. Tracy
hit 40 doubles for the first time in his career and set a new career best with 80 RBI. Expect 2005 to become more of the norm for Tracy
down the road… Jackson was hailed
as one of the next big things headed into Spring Training last season, but his
numbers looked more like those of the player he was compared to during his
minor league days… Mark Grace. Jackson
lacks the power production of a typical fantasy first baseman, but he does have
other areas where he excels. He hit .291
as a rookie last season, which should be a sign of even better days to come
with his average hitting. He also
showcased a fantastic aptitude for putting the ball in play, striking out just
73 times in 485 at bats. Jackson
should continue to develop a little more power, but he’s never going to be
anyone who challenges 30 homers. Still,
he figures to have a friendly spot in the order in Arizona
and should have plenty of chances to drive in runners without the long-ball… Byrnes figures to be a good fit anywhere
from the 2-5 spots in Arizona’s order, though his placement in a power spot
would simply be because the younger talents (see Quentin, Carlos) might need a
little more time to grow into the spot. Byrnes is coming off of a career year in terms
of production, with 26 homers, 25 steals, and 79 RBI as he worked his way into
a surprisingly high amount of playing time.
Byrnes doesn’t have the physical gifts that most of his teammates have,
but makes up for it with his work ethic.
Expect him to be rewarded with a solid fifth spot in the order behind a
pair of developing corner infielders…. Quentin has always been more of a
doubles hitter than a power hitter in the minors, but something strange
happened on his way to the majors last season.
Quentin matched his AAA home run production from last season (9 in 318
AB) during his trial stint in the majors (9 in 166 AB). The power’s there, and it should be expected
that somewhere in the not too distant future, Quentin could be batting in the
cleanup spot in Arizona. However, there’s a lot more to his game than
just crushing the ball from time to time.
Quentin has enough speed to steal a handful of bases, a strong ability
to hit for average, and fantastic plate discipline. All the tools are there, and he projects as a
potential future star… The Diamondbacks thought highly enough of Montero (and
backup Chris Snyder) to trade Johnny Estrada away to Milwaukee
this offseason. The expectation is that
Montero will win the job, but it may end up being a 60/40 split. Montero is clearly their future at the position, and has tremendous power-hitting
skills and good plate patience. He hit
17 homers in 423 AB between AA and AAA last season, following up his 26 homers
between two levels in 2004 nicely. Give
him 300 AB, and he should challenge 15 homers.
He’s clearly the better fantasy play, but he’s still young for a
big-league catcher (23)…. Snyder showed fantastic improvements across the
board, shortening his stroke to raise his average from .202 in 2005 to .277
last season. He didn’t shorten his
stroke that much, though, as he still
hit the same amount of home runs (6) that he did in 2005 in 142 fewer at
bats. Regardless, he’s not much of a
fantasy option because of his inconsistency and Montero’s presence…. At first
glance, Drew didn’t skip a beat when he made the jump to the big leagues last
season. Drew hit .316 with 25 extra-base
hits (13 doubles, 7 triples, 5 homers) in just 209 at bats in the bigs. However, he did struggle quite a bit with his
contact rate, as he struck out 50 times in just 209 AB. Drew has developing power and good on-base
skills, though he lacks the speed that you’re often looking for in a fantasy
shortstop. He’s worth a look in NL
leagues, and possibly in deeper mixed leagues as a MI, but he shouldn’t enter
2007 as a starter in a typical mixed league.
Other Bats to Watch
Jeff Davanon
Davanon will return as the fourth outfielder, and makes for
a good fourth or fifth outfielder in NL leagues. He’s likely to hit a handful of dingers,
steal about a dozen bases, and hit for his typical .290 average or so again. There’s no mixed league value here unless
injuries hit hard, though he should see plenty of playing time since Young and
Quentin are both in their first full season.
Projected Rotation
Randy Johnson
Brandon Webb
Livan Hernandez
Doug Davis
Edgar Gonzalez/Enrique Gonzalez/Dustin Nippert
Though the Diamondbacks’ young lineup figures to need a lot
of help from the pitching to contend, it looks like they should certainly have
it. The acquisitions of Johnson and
Davis in the offseason give this team one of the more formidable veteran front
four in the rotation in either league.
In Johnson and Webb, they’ll boast what could be a dominant 1-2 punch of
former Cy Young Award winners, while Hernandez chews up a ton of solid innings
and Davis can rack up some strikeouts. The bullpen behind them shouldn’t be
overworked.
Johnson isn’t what he used to be, but should thrive upon his
return to the National League. The Unit
certainly doesn’t have the dominant arsenal that he had back when he pitched
for Arizona from 1999-2004, but he won’t face nearly the same level of
competition that he did during these past two seasons in New York. He still brings dominant heat to the table,
but struggled to find his slider for most of last season. Expect things to change as he feels a little
more comfortable in the desert…. The immediate assumption after a Cy Young campaign is that every team will be ready for
Brandon Webb. However, with Johnson in
town, the pressure should be eased a bit.
Webb relies heavily on his sinker, which usually keeps the ball in the
yard. The biggest benefit of all the
kids in the field is that they’re on the upswing defensively behind him. Orlando Hudson is a gold-glover at second,
while Tracy and Drew are both more than adequate defensively on the left
side. Expect Webb to have another great
season for the Diamondbacks… Hernandez looked significantly better after the
trade that sent him to Arizona
last season, but he’s still far from a fantasy fixture. He tends to chew up a ton of innings, but always
keeps a high WHIP and doesn’t exactly blow you away with his strikeout
totals. If you’re looking for a fifth
starter, you could do worse, but you’re in trouble if he’s one of your top
three…. Davis falls into about the
same camp that Hernandez does. He has
the potential to post a lot of strikeouts (208 in 2005), but he also walks a
ton of hitters and keeps a high WHIP.
Moreover, he’s had some problems with the gopher ball in the past, and a
move to Arizona won’t favor him
here. He’s a solid option at the back of
your rotation, but no more… Based on their play last season, I’d have to say
that Edgar Gonzalez is the favorite for the fifth spot in the rotation entering
Spring Training. However, none of the
top three options for the fifth spot warrant any fantasy consideration in the
preseason.
Closer
Jose Valverde
Other Bullpen Arms of Interest
Tony Pena
Jorge Julio
Brandon Medders
Brandon Lyon
Valverde entered 2006 as the closer, but lost his job to
Jorge Julio before taking it back shortly after midseason. Generally speaking, Valverde isn’t your
typical closer (see high walk totals/ERA/WHIP), but if he enters Spring
Training with improved confidence and attacks the strike zone, he can be
dangerous. Valverde does post the monster strikeout numbers that most fantasy owners
like to see out of their closers (69 in 49 IP last season), but he’s far from
an elite closer and his hold on the job is tenuous…. Pena is regarded by many as the organization’s closer of the future,
but struggled mightily in a trial at the big league level last season. He has the high-nineties heat and even has a
pretty strong second pitch with his slider.
However, he might take a little longer than Arizona
hopes to develop into a big league closer… Because Pena might not quite be
ready, Julio would probably get the first crack at the closer’s role if
Valverde should struggle. Julio saved
fifteen games for the D-Backs last season and struck out 88 in 66 innings
between New York and Arizona. However, he also struggles with the walk (35
in 66 IP) and keeps a high WHIP…. Medders and Lyon are both solid options in
leagues that value holds, though neither figures to challenge for the closing
role at any point in 2007.
Position Battles (to be updated throughout the Spring)
Miguel Montero vs.
Chris Snyder – Though fantasy owners would certainly like to see Montero,
who is both younger and has considerably more power, run away with the job in
Spring Training, neither is likely to win more than a 60/40 split. Montero has a bright future as a fantasy
starter, while Snyder’s value is limited to NL Leagues at best. With a ton of kids slated for playing time in
the big leagues already, the Diamondbacks will make a move towards the future
and give Montero the starting role.
Edgar Gonzalez vs.
Enrique Gonzalez & Dustin Nippert – Honestly, this is a situation you
want to avoid at all costs. Edgar
Gonzalez enters camp the favorite, after having gone 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA and
1.13 WHIP in September. Nippert flashed
his strikeout potential last season between AAA (130 K in 140 IP) and the
majors, but that’s about all he did. He
was extremely hittable in AAA and allowed 5 homers in just ten big league
innings on his way to horrible ratios for both clubs. Enrique Gonzalez started strong, allowing
just four runs in his first four starts, but dropped off significantly with
extended playing time, keeping an ERA no lower than 6.32 in any of the season’s
final three months.
Sleepers
Chris B. Young – Young
has legit 20/20 potential as soon as this season. The 23-year-old centerfielder has averaged 24
homers and 27 steals in his past three years in the minors despite not
eclipsing the 500 AB mark once. He also
brings the plate discipline required of a leadoff man, even if he’s not a great
average-hitter. Regardless of his
mediocre batting average, leading off for a team that’s loaded with as many
up-and-coming offensive players as the Diamondbacks should help him at least
challenge 100 runs.
Jose Valverde – Valverde’s
strong finish last season and his monster strikeout numbers simply can’t be
ignored. The 27-year-old looked horrible
enough to get sent down to the minors early on last year, but looked brilliant
upon his return, allowing just a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP from August on. He also improved dramatically upon his
strikeout rate, fanning 69 batters in 49+ innings to finish with 12.6 K/9
IP. He’ll enter the year as the closer,
but his poor overall numbers (5.84 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) last season mean he’ll be among
the final closers drafted.
Duds
The Diamondbacks lack a major dud entering the 2007
season. It can be expected that Brandon
Webb’s numbers will come down a bit, but it shouldn’t be overwhelming enough to
drop him from the top ten among starters.
Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez are each coming off down years in the
rotation, and may actually improve a bit (though I’m not sure it will be enough
to warrant ownership in mixed leagues) while Randy Johnson’s move to the NL
should help him. Eric Byrnes is the only
real candidate offensively, but even he shouldn’t come into the year
overvalued.
Player to watch out for
Micah Owings – With
Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez at least a year away, Owings has to be
considered the most likely prospect to reach the big league level in 2007. Owings destroyed AA hitters for half the
year, going 6-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while striking out just under a
batter an inning. Upon receiving a call
to AAA to close out the year, he was undefeated in ten decisions, but didn’t
post nearly the numbers he did in Tennessee. Owings watched his K:BB
ratio decline to 1.79 while allowing a 1.48 WHIP that won’t fly in the big
leagues. With a mess of guys vying for
the fifth spot in the rotation, a solid half-season in Tuscon
should get him a look at some point.
Final Projected Record: 79-83, 3rd NL West
Fantasy Baseball 
