Projected Lineup
CF Alfonso Soriano
2B Mark DeRosa
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Jacque Jones
C Michael Barrett
LF Matt Murton/Cliff Floyd
SS Cesar Izturis
Alfonso Soriano did
what many said couldn’t be done. After
eventually accepting a move to left field in Washington,
he found a way to tame spacious RFK and actually finished with his first 40/40
season leading off for the Nats. A move
to Chicago could prove to help his
power numbers in 2007, though his stolen base total is likely to come down a touch…
Looking at the numbers Mark DeRosa
posted in Texas last season, only
one two word phrase keeps coming to mind: Career
year! There’s a reason DeRosa hadn’t
stuck as a big league regular until last season. He’s simply not all that great. He’s shown slightly above average power for a
middle infielder, but he’s not a strong average-hitter and very rarely runs… Derrek Lee battled with injuries for
the first time in his career after his stunning breakout 2005 campaign. The fact that so many people got burned by
him last season is going to make some owner who lands him in the fourth or
fifth round a very happy man (or woman)… The scary part about Aramis Ramirez is that he’s just
hitting his prime. He’s now hit .290 or
better with 30 homers and 90 RBI or more in each of the past three seasons…. Upon
escaping the Metrodome, Jacques Jones had
his best season since 2002, improving slightly on his home run total while
cranking up the average to .285. He
remains a decent bet as a third or fourth outfielder in mixed leagues because
of his power alone…. When he wasn’t cold-cocking A.J. Pierzynski, Michael Barrett was on his way to his
best season yet in 2006. He matched his
previous best with sixteen homers despite playing in just 105 games, and even
boosted the average up over .300.
Barrett enters 2007 on the fringe of the top five at his position…. Matt Murton did pretty much everything
the Cubs asked of him last season, displaying strong contact skills, good plate
discipline, and even a little pop as he shifted around the order. Still, his reward was that they brought in Cliff Floyd to give him some
competition in left field. Floyd has
good power, but an otherwise similar skill set.
This could easily end up becoming a platoon that will sap both players
of most of their value…. Cesar Izturis
gives the Cubbies a great glove man up the middle, but not much else. He’s never shown any power, though he did
show an ability to hit for average and swipe a few bags in 2004.
Other Hitters To
Watch
Ryan Theriot figures
to make the team as a utility man in Spring Training, and showed last season
that he can be a sneaky source for steals in NL-Only Leagues. Theriot stole thirteen bases in 2006 despite
just 134 at bats…. With the re-signing of Aramis Ramirez, Scott Moore has virtually no chance of getting into the lineup on a
regular basis. Still, the kid’s shown
plenty of power in the minors, hitting 42 homers in the past two years between
high-A ball and AA. He has little left
to prove below the big league level, but may start the year at AAA.
Starting Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Jason Marquis
Rich Hill
Mark Prior/Wade Miller
Apart from a frightening walk ratio (his 115 led the majors
last year), Carlos Zambrano is an
absolute stud. He’s hit that magical 200
strikeout mark the past two years, and while his 3.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP were a
little higher than we’d like, they were more than passable for a borderline
ace. Unlike most Cub pitchers, he
actually makes his starts… Ted Lilly
has had some control issues the past few years himself, but he established
himself as a solid enough source of strikeouts (160) last season in Toronto to
warrant mixed league attention near the back of your rotation while winning
fifteen games for the Jays. His ERA will
be a little high for a third or fourth starter, while his WHIP will knock him
down another couple of notches. Still,
if he can find a way to maintain his 7.9 K/9 ratio (or anything close to it)
from last season, Lilly’s a quality mixed league find…. Jason Marquis is living proof that wins aren’t everything. The right-hander won fourteen games for the
Cardinals last season, but showed little in the strikeout department (96 in 194
IP) while maintaining an atrocious ERA (6.02) and WHIP (1.52). The skill set is there for Marquis to
succeed, but he just doesn’t seem to have the mental aspect of the game down… Rich Hill is coming off of a monster
second half that should have solidified a spot in the 2007 rotation. The 26-year-old has terrific strikeout
potential, and even showed decent enough control to keep his walk rate down
last season. He’s a number four starter
in mixed leagues with plenty of upside…. Both Mark Prior and Wade Miller
are classic risk/reward picks. Prior can
obviously bring a little more reward, but might not look to be a risk worth
taking after last year’s performance.
The former gem of the Cubs’ system continued his fall from grace last
season, finishing just 1-6 with a 7.21 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Still, he’s expected to be healthy to begin
the year (we’ve heard this before), and will slot in towards the back of the
rotation early on.
Closer
Ryan Dempster
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Bob Howry
Kerry Wood
Scott Eyre
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Ryan
Dempster is just plain awful in any role that’s going to give him any
leverage in a game. He looked strong for
the first month of the 2006 season before returning to form and eventually
going 1-9 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.
If you’re considering him as your closer, please consider drafting any
one of about thirty middle relievers that will at least refrain from destroying
your secondary numbers instead…. Bob
Howry had his third straight outstanding season, shifting back and forth
between a setup role and a bizarre stint as the long man in the bullpen. Howry enters camp as the only Cub other than
Dempster with closing experience. In a
perfect world, that would mean he’s closing by… April. In the Cubs world, he’ll probably be wasted
in a setup role all season long… The Cubs have finally decided to move Kerry Wood to the bullpen in the hopes
that it might alleviate some of his constant arm troubles. He’s going to struggle to be ready for the
start of the season, but could be effective in the role. Expect big strikeout numbers, though it’s
doubtful that Wood gets the first crack when (not if) Dumpster falters in
2007…. Scott Eyre makes for a
terrific grab in leagues that value holds.
If not, his value is limited to NL-Only Leagues.
Position Battles
Matt Murton vs. Cliff
Floyd – Murton had an outstanding rookie season, batting .297 with 13
homers and 22 doubles. Still, the Cubs
offseason spending spree included an extra outfielder, and a pretty darned good
one (when healthy) at that.
Unfortunately, the phrase (when healthy) always has to be used when
talking about Cliff Floyd, as he’s averaged just 122 games played the past five
years, and is coming off of an Achilles injury that cost him much of the 2006
season. Floyd offers more power for fantasy
owners, while Murton brings a stronger ability to hit for average and has the advantage of being on the
upswing of his career.
Sleepers
Derrek Lee –
Yeah… yeah… Anyone who finished top five in the 2005 MVP voting can’t be
considered a sleeper. I know. How many of you were thinking that Lee had
done that when you first read his name up at the top, though? Lee’s injury-riddled 2006 campaign is
knocking his value down quite a bit lower than it probably should in many
owners’ eyes. He’s a legitimate top five
first baseman that many places are ranking in the lower half of the top ten.
Rich Hill – Hill
got rocked in an early stint with the Cubs, just as he had in 2005. However, he proved that he belonged late in
the year by posting a dominant 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in the second half,
including a 3-1, 1.93 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in September when he struck out 50 batters
in 42 innings. Considered the
quintessential 4A pitcher at times throughout his career, Hill could find that
he has some staying power now that he has a regular spot in the rotation.
Duds
Mark DeRosa –
After finally working his way into the lineup on a full-time basis in Texas
last season, the 32-year-old utility man had a career year on all fronts. His .296 average was more than twenty points
higher than his career .273, while he nearly tripled his career-best with 74
RBI, doubled his career-best with 78 runs, and swatted more home runs than he
had in 2004 and 2005 combined. He’ll get
a chance to play everyday again this season in Chicago,
where the Cubs signed him for more than $4 million a year, but he’ll find that
the ball doesn’t fly nearly as well there as it does in Arlington.
Player to Watch Out For
Felix Pie doesn’t
have much left to prove in the minors, so it’s almost a shame that the Cubs
added Alfonso Soriano in the offseason.
Soriano will occupy center field, which should allow Pie to repeat the
AAA level to begin 2007. However, he
didn’t look like he really needed to last season in hitting fifteen homers with
a .283 average last season. He has
outstanding speed, developing power, and is terrific in the field. If Pie can cut down on his strikeout rate a
touch, he could become an absolute monster within the next two years.
Projected Finish: 84-78, 3rd NL Central
Fantasy Baseball 
