Projected Lineup
LF Scott Podsednik/Ryan Sweeney
2B Tadahito Iguchi
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
C A.J. Pierzynski
3B Joe Crede
SS Juan Uribe/Alex Cintron
CF Brian Anderson/Ryan Sweeney/Darin Erstad
Scott Podsednik is
likely to begin the year on the disabled list, partly because the surgery that
he just had done in the offseason will hinder his primary asset as a ballplayer
(his speed). We all know what Pods is
known for when he’s in the lineup, and that’s his ability to steal forty bases
while hitting for a decent average…. Tadahito Iguchi further established
himself as a probable top ten second baseman by improving slightly on his fine
rookie campaign. Look for 15-20 homers
and 15-20 steals with a solid .280 average…. Back problems? What back problems? Jim Thome put his injury-marred 2005 behind
him as an everyday DH and returned to his more typical .280/40/100 numbers that
we’ve expected of him. While he should
only qualify as a utility in most formats, you just can’t pass up on his power
in the top ten rounds in mixed leagues… While it went widely unnoticed, Paul
Konerko may have had his best season for the White Sox last season, cranking 35
homers and driving in 100+ runs for the third straight season while amping up
his average from it’s more typical .285 range to
.313. He’s a legit top ten mixed league
first baseman who will provide excellence in four categories…. While part of
the reason people didn’t notice Konerko last year was Thome, the other major
reason was Jermaine Dye. The former
perennial sleeper seemed to slip in quite a few drafts last season, despite
winning the World Series MVP in 2005. He
rewarded those who took the chance on him by pounding 44 homers and driving 120
runners in while batting above .300 for the first time since 2000…. A.J.
Pierzynski had arguably his finest season in 2006. He kept the power he’d shown in 2005 as the
heart and soul of the World Series Champs while also recovering the
average-hitting skills he’d shown early in his career with the Twins. He’s a solid bottom tier mixed league
starter… Juan Uribe showed great power again in 2006,
though his batting average dropped like an anchor for the second straight
year. If his batting average (.235 in
2006) isn’t enough to scare you away, consider his legal troubles. He has to appear in court a couple of times a
month in the Dominican Republic,
and may skip the season. Alex Cintron would likely be there to pick up the pieces, but
has little other than his decent average-hitting ability and speed to offer
fantasy owners. Whoever starts will be a
decent AL-Only grab, but nothing more… To say that Brian Anderson struggled a bit in his rookie season
would be like saying Ron Dayne likes
cheeseburgers. He showed nice potential
in the minors, jacking sixteen homers in 448 AAA at bats in 2005, but hit just
.225 with 8 homers in the big leagues last season while showing little in the
plate discipline (30 walks) or speed (4 steals) department.
Other Hitters To Watch
Ryan Sweeney
Darin Erstad
Josh Fields
Rob Mackowiak
Ryan Sweeney absolutely tore apart AAA last season, batting
.296/.350/.452 as a 21-year-old. He’ll
compete with Brian Anderson (and, presumably Darin Erstad) for the centerfield
job, and could win out because of his 20/10 upside. Even if he doesn’t win the job, he may
actually break camp with the club if Scott Podsednik isn’t ready to go. If not, he’ll return to AAA so he can get
regular at bats… Darin Erstad hasn’t done much to earn mixed league status
since 2000, but the talent remains. He
has the ability to hit for average while adding a little pop and a little
speed. He’ll likely break camp as the
starter in left field, and could end up bumping Anderson
to the bench at some point in center…. Josh Fields has nothing left to prove in the minors after batting
.305/.379/.515 in Charlotte last
season with 55 extra base hits.
Unfortunately, Joe Crede’s emergence last season will force him to
change positions if he’s going to make a fantasy splash… Rob Mackowiak showed
a strong ability to hit for average with a little pop and a little speed
platooning in centerfield last season.
He’ll be back as the fourth or fifth outfielder, but shouldn’t see
enough time to help owners outside of AL-Only Leagues.
Starting Rotation
Jose Contreras
Mark Buehrle
Jon Garland
Javier Vazquez
Gavin Floyd/Charlie Haeger/John Danks
Jose Contreras started
the year on fire, but tailed off badly in the second half after returning from
a pinched nerve in his leg. The 35-year-old righthander has clearly
been a different pitcher since joining the White Sox in 2004, but has yet to
put together a full season of absolute dominance. He should be a quality number two or three
starter in mixed leagues, provided he can get over his issues from the second
half last season… Speaking of second half issues, Mark Buehrle was just as
brutal in the second half of 2006 as he has been good for the past five
seasons. The finesse lefty fell apart in
July of last season, and never really seemed to recover the rest of the way. Entering what’s expected to be his final
season in Chicago, Buehrle needs to
find a way to keep the ball down to turn things around… Since absolutely
blowing up and dominating in the first half of 2005, Jon Garland has returned
to what he always had been in the past… a league-average starter who wins a ton
of games because of the strong offense behind him. Garland
was an average two-category (ERA… 4.51 and WHIP… 1.36) starter last season who
excelled in wins and (as usual) was absolutely terrible with his strikeout
production. Fantasy starters just don’t
carry a K/9 rate of under 5…. The most dominant
strikeout pitcher on the staff is Javier Vazquez, who carried a K/9 ratio over
8.0 for the second straight season in 2006.
However, that was about all he really did to help fantasy owners. Vazquez, who can be just plain dominant in
stretches, showed that he can be equally as streaky when he’s struggling,
losing his final six decisions as he limped home to an 11-12 record with a 4.84
ERA and 1.29 WHIP. His strikeout production
makes him more than draftable in mixed leagues,
though he’s someone you might want to consider as a plug and play option from
your bench… Gavin Floyd comes over from Philadelphia,
where he went from uber-prospect to absolute dud in the past two seasons. He’s undraftable, largely due to his insane
walk rate. Knuckler
Charlie Haeger and top prospect John Danks will
challenge him for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Closer
Bobby Jenks
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Mike MacDougal
Matt Thornton
David Aarsma
Bobby Jenks had his struggles last season, but his
all-around campaign gave plenty of hope to those who liked what they saw at the
end of 2005. His overpowering fastball
makes him a strikeout machine, and he converted 41 of his 45 save opportunities
last season. The ERA may be a bit high
for a closer, and the WHIP will definitely be high, but he still fits in as a
lower tier number one because of his save production and his Ks… Mike MacDougal
lost a lot of fantasy value when he was dealt to the White Sox, but he was
still significantly more productive than he had been since 2003 after the
trade. He should improve upon his
average strikeout production this season, and will be a major force in leagues
that value holds… Matt Thornton’s improvements last season can be attributed
primarily to his walk rate. After
walking 42 in 57 innings in 2005, Thornton
cut that figure in half in just three less innings last year. A lefty specialist, he’ll succeed because
he’ll be used predominantly in situations where the splits are in his
favor. He’ll bring strikeout help as
well, while his main value lies in leagues that use holds as a category… David
Aardsma should also prove valuable in holds leagues, and showed dramatic
improvement in the second half of 2006 across town for the Cubbies. Formerly known as the Giants’ closer of the
future, Aardsma will now join his third organization in the past three years,
and figures to work in middle relief.
He’s capable of big strikeout numbers, though he struggles with his
command at times.
Position Battles
Gavin Floyd vs.
Charlie Haeger & John Danks – Floyd enters
camp as the favorite, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him. Haeger dominated AAA with his knuckleball for
most of the season, compiling a 3.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for Charlotte
in 26 starts. He even looked pretty
strong in a brief trial with the big club, allowing just four runs (two earned)
in fourteen innings down the stretch. Danks has yet to make his mark on the big leagues, but the fireballing lefty had a tremendous showing in AAA for the
Rangers, showcasing an outstanding strikeout rate of 10.65 and a terrific 3.73
K:BB ratio.
Just 21, Danks will probably start the season
in AAA.
Juan Uribe vs. Alex Cintron – The Uribe/Cintron battle isn’t really a battle at all, though
we’re going to learn a bit more about who sees the playing time at shortstop in
the next month. Uribe
would enter the season as the starter, but legal troubles may keep him from
making the team at all. Neither figures
to be a mixed league option.
Brian Anderson vs. Darin
Erstad & Ryan Sweeney – Anderson’s
struggles last season lead to a lot of questions entering camp. Sweeney will be given every opportunity to
poach the job from him to start the 2007 season, but if he doesn’t win out,
he’s likely headed to AAA. He has
developing power and good plate discipline, but the organization would rather
get him regular at bats in the minors than use him as a backup in the bigs. Erstad signed a one-year deal with the club
in late January, and figures to push Anderson
for playing time himself. Though Erstad
never built on his career year in 2000, he’s still a proven, reliable veteran.
Sleepers
Javier Vazquez –
A quick glance at his ERA from last season can turn many owners off, but you
have to look beyond that. His 8.2
strikeout rate was phenomenal, and his 3.80 DIPS ERA (Independent of the
defense behind him) actually ranked eighteenth among pitchers who qualified for
the ERA title. He’s a virtual lock to
win more than the eleven games he won last season, while his ERA should come
down considerably to fit the rest of the numbers he puts up. He’s a solid number three starter who most
owners will look at as a number five at best.
Charlie Haeger –
Our projected winner for the fifth spot in Chicago’s
rotation, Haeger won’t bring a ton of strikeouts or a terrific WHIP with
him. However, he throws the most
difficult pitch for a hitter (or a catcher, for that matter… just ask Josh Bard) to get a read on, and he throws it better
than anyone since Tim Wakefield. He’s a
quirky pick who could well post double digit wins if he wins the job while
keeping an ERA in the high-threes.
Consider him a borderline fifth starter, but keep an eye on how things
are progressing in camp.
Duds
Scott Podsednik –
Even if the one category that he really
contributes in is the rarest statistic to find of the major 5X5 categories, you
can do better. Podsednik is expected to
miss most of Spring Training, may start the year in Extended ST, and figures to
struggle a little to get going with his running game because he’s coming off of
groin surgery. Let someone else overpay
for his steals, which should come down a bit in 2007 anyway.
Jon Garland – The
numbers certainly didn’t belie his second consecutive eighteen win season, and
he’s never been much of a strikeout pitcher.
His wins are going to come down to earth a bit in 2007, while his
secondary numbers alone aren’t worth keeping him around for. Be surprised if Garland
earns status as a top fifty starter in mixed leagues, but be prepared to see
him go in the top thirty because of last year’s win total.
Player to watch for
Still just 21, John Danks is
unlikely to break camp with the White Sox.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t expect to see him at some point this
season, though. The power lefty has
fantastic ability as a force in strikeout leagues, and should get a chance to
show them off if there are injuries in the rotation.
Projected Finish: 82-80, 4th AL Central
Fantasy Baseball 
