Projected Lineup
RF Ryan Freel
2B Brandon Phillips
CF Ken Griffey, Jr.
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Scott Hatteberg/Jeff Conine
C David Ross
SS Alex Gonzalez
Freel has been eerily consistent the past three years,
batting between .271 and .277 while stealing between 36 and 37 bases. He’s a solid source of runs and steals atop
the Reds’ order, but does little else in fantasy leagues… Phillips rebounded
from two straight poor seasons where he failed to stick as a big league regular
in Cleveland, showing his 20/20
upside while even hitting for average and contributing in five categories…
Junior didn’t quite stay as healthy as he did in 2005, but he still remained in
the lineup for 109 games, more than he has in all but one season since 2000. When healthy, he’s a dominant fantasy force
capable of hitting a homer every fifteen at bats… Dunn continued to show his
outstanding power in 2006, blasting forty homers for the third straight
season. However, his batting average
declined significantly for the second straight year as well, while he finished
just one short of his own strikeout record… Everything points to Encarnacion
being one of the top sleepers in all of fantasy baseball. He hit fifteen homers and a tremendous 33
doubles in just 406 at bats in his first full season, and figures to belt at
least twenty dingers if he can get 500 at bats.
That’s throwing out the fact that his power should continue to develop a
bit as he’s just 24… Hatteberg and Conine give the Reds a pair of quality
platoon options at first base, though neither figures to be a factor outside of
NL Leagues. Both will have their at bats
severely limited by the other, and neither hits for a ton of power at a
position that demands it… Though he spent most of the season in either a backup
(to start the year) or platoon role (once midseason kicked in), Ross was the
breakout catcher of the 2006 season.
Though he found his way into just 247 at bats, Ross smacked 21 homers
last season, taking particular advantage of his hitter-friendly home park (13
HR in 108 AB). He enters 2007 as the
primary option behind the plate, though he’ll still lose his fair share of at
bats to Javier Valentin… Since hitting 23 homers in 2004, Gonzalez hasn’t been
able to find his power stroke. He had a
second straight down year in the slugging department, hitting just nine homers
in 388 at bats as the starter for the Red Sox.
When he’s not hitting for power, he’s a non-factor in fantasy circles
who keeps a low average and doesn’t steal bases.
Other Hitters To Watch
Bubba Crosby
Chris Denorfia
Javier Valentin
Juan Castro
Crosby has a terrific glove in the
outfield, but doesn’t do much of anything with the bat… Denorfia had a decent
showing with the bat last season in Cincinnati,
batting .283 as a fourth outfielder with the Reds after Austin Kearns was
shipped out in July. He’s shown double
digit power and speed in the minors, but will need an injury to have a shot at
any real playing time… Valentin continued to show quality power as part of a
platoon behind the plate, hitting 8 homers in 186 AB after bashing 14 in 221 AB
in 2005… Castro primary (only?) asset is his glove, which he can use to cover
any position in the infield. He improved
upon his batting average after a trade sent him to Cincinnati
at midseason, but has still never shown much in the power or speed departments.
Starting Rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Eric Milton
Kyle Lohse
Elizardo Ramirez/Matt Belisle
After a bustout 2005 season, Harang kept basically the same
numbers (3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) in 2006.
However, he added significantly to his strikeout rate and continued to
show that he’s one of the more durable starters in the league. Though it took him 32 more innings to do it,
Harang edged Jake Peavy by one strikeout for the NL title… After years of
obscurity in Boston, Arroyo emerged
as a star in the first half in Cincinnati,
winning nine of his first fifteen decisions while keeping a tremendous 3.12 ERA
and 1.18 WHIP. While he struggled
through much of July and August, going ten starts without a win at one point,
he still went on to have a second half (5-5, 3.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 88 K) that
didn’t drag his numbers down that much, and even closed strong in
September. Entering his second season
with Cincinnati, he figures to post
similar (if slightly lesser) numbers in 2007… Milton
continued to struggle with the longball in 2006, but actually dropped more than
a full run off of his 2005 ERA. Sadly,
that still meant that he closed the year with an ERA well over 5.00. While he’s a capable starter in terms of
WHIP, Milton has never fulfilled
the promise he showed in his early years with the Twins… Lohse was awful enough
early in Minnesota to be demoted
to the minors, but showed significant improvement after a midseason deal sent
him to Cincinnati. Regardless, even his improved 4.57 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with the Reds didn’t give him much
fantasy value… Both Belisle and Ramirez have proven to be capable pitchers in
the minors, though neither enjoyed that much success in Cincinnati. Both could make for back-end options in
NL-Only Leagues, but nothing more.
Closer
David Weathers
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Todd Coffey
Bill Bray
Gary Majewski
Eddie Guardado
Though the Reds would clearly prefer for a younger option to
emerge at the back of the bullpen, Weathers enters camp as the favorite because
he proved adequate (for the most part) in the closer’s role last season and has
a significant edge over Coffey, Bray, and Majewski in experience… Coffey was
hailed by many as a sleeper closer heading into 2006, and while he was far from
awful on the year (3.58 ERA), he was
way too hittable, and finished the year with a 1.44 WHIP. He’s a strong source of holds who could work
his way into the closer’s role at some point.
Bear in mind that he didn’t flourish there last season… Majewski was on
his way to a fine season in Washington,
but his shoulder went out just around the time when he was traded to Cincinnati. Before requiring his DL stint, Majewski blew
up, allowing 13 runs in 8.3 innings over eleven appearances. He has the arm to be a quality setup man…
Bray kept a solid 4.23 ERA after joining the Reds in a midseason deal from
Washington, while he also improved his strikeout rate and even earned a couple
of saves late in the year when the Reds were running their bullpen by
committee. He’ll likely enter the year
third on the depth chart behind Weathers and Coffey, which means he’ll probably
get a look at some point… Guardado would enter the year as the favorite to close,
but September surgery on his elbow is expected to keep him out until June at
the earliest. Since nobody else figures
to step forward and take charge of the role, he might be worth stashing on your
DL. Just consider grabbing him after the draft.
Position Battles
Elizardo Ramirez vs.
Matt Belisle & Kirk Saarloos – Ramirez enters the camp as the clear
favorite, if for no other reason than the fact that the Reds seem comfortable
leaving him in a starting role. Belisle
has spent most of the past two seasons in the bullpen, serving there in both
the majors and the minors with mixed results.
Saarloos gives some competition for each of them, though he’s likely
ticketed for the bullpen after proving to be a better swingman than a starter
in the past with the A’s and Astros.
Sleepers
Edwin Encarnacion – He
was a capable 25 homer man who could hit for average as well in the high
minors, so Encarnacion’s breakthrough didn’t come out of nowhere in 2006. He hit 15 homers in just over 400 at bats in
his first shot at extended playing time at the big league level. The 24-year-old third baseman also showed
significant power to the gaps, smashing 33 doubles, many of which could soon
turn into homers. Expect big things from
Encarnacion as he ascends the charts to earn status as a top ten starter at the
hot corner.
Duds
David Ross – Will
he fail as the number one catcher in Cincinnati? Not necessarily. However, you have to think that his massive
home run rate (1 per 11.76 AB) comes down in his second season with the
Reds. He has shown plenty of power throughout the early stages of his
big-league career (19 homers in 424 AB), and is a capable slugger behind the
plate. Just don’t expect him to have a
thirty homer campaign, and he’ll make for a fine lower tier starter in mixed
leagues.
Closing Committee – Weathers
will have first crack at the job, and can be an adequate big league (and
mediocre fantasy) closer. However, if
he’s not blowing anyone away, the Reds will continue to do what they’ve done
the past few seasons, trying alternative options in the ninth on a frequent
basis. You never want any part of
someone who’s likely to be in a committee as one of your top two closers, and
whoever wins out will serve as a number three at best.
Player to watch for
Homer Bailey – Just
20, Bailey will get the token look in Spring Training, though Jerry Narron has
already made it clear that he’s ticketed for AAA to start the year. However, the mess that the Reds have at the
back of their rotation means that half a season of dominance in Louisville
should have him up around the All-Star Break.
Bailey built on his solid 2005, maintaining a 2.47 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and
an outstanding 156:50 strikeout to walk ratio in 138+ innings while splitting
his 26 starts between high-A and AA. He
projects as a future ace, and could start realizing that potential at
midseason.
Projected Finish: 83-79, 4th NL Central
Fantasy Baseball 
