Projected Lineup
2B Craig Biggio
CF Chris Burke
1B Lance Berkman
LF Carlos Lee
3B Morgan Ensberg
RF Luke Scott
SS Adam Everett
C Brad Ausmus
Biggio’s bat has slowed significantly, and led to his worst
batting average (.246) since his rookie year way back in 1988. To counter it, he’s added power at the tail
end of his career, hitting more than twenty in each of the past three
seasons. While he’ll move back to the
leadoff spot for the Astros, a move down in the order could be on the way as
his OBP continues to plummet… Burke would likely take over the leadoff role if
Biggio is unable to perform there. The
Astros’ former top middle infield prospect proved in his second season with the
club that he can translate his minor league numbers into some nice stolen base
totals (11 in a backup role) and power (9 HR in 366 AB). With Willy Taveras in Colorado,
he’ll make the move to centerfield and get his first shot at a starting role…
Berkman was a borderline top ten overall player last season, without much protection in the
lineup. He hits well for average and has
significant power to all fields. Carlos
Lee’s addition should only help him to improve on those numbers. As for Lee, often known as a dead pull
hitter, he’s going to enjoy the Crawford Boxes, and could well have his first
forty homer campaign… Ensberg carried his red hot performance in 2005 into the
first month, bashing 9 homers while hitting .329 in April last season. However, while he was able to keep the power
going for about another month or so (8 more homers in May), he failed to hit
any higher than .216 in a single month from May through August. He has enough power potential so that he
should remain a borderline mixed league option, but hit just .235 on the year
in 2006… After blasting 31 homers in AAA in 2005, Scott spent the first half
back down in the minors because of the depth in the Astros’ outfield. However, since he continued to mash in the
minors (.299/.400/.541 with 20 HR in 318 AB in AAA), he eventually earned a
call-up with Jason Lane
underachieving. Scott earned his way
into regular playing time almost immediately upon getting the call, finishing
strong with a .336 average and 35 extra base hits (19 doubles, 6 triples, 10
homers) in just 214 at bats…. Everett has upside as a double digit homer and
steal guy in NL Leagues, but has no place on a mixed league roster in fantasy
circles. Both he and Ausmus are
tremendous with the glove, though their bats bring very little to the table.
Other Hitters To Watch
Mark Loretta
Jason Lane
Mike Lamb
Loretta was effective, but certainly didn’t meet
expectations in Boston last
season. He’s a fine average hitter
capable of excelling as a doubles hitter, but doesn’t show nearly enough power
or speed to make himself much of a mixed league option. Behind likely Hall of Famer Craig Biggio on
the depth chart at second, Loretta will fill in as a backup at both middle
infield positions… Lane showed last season that he still has plenty of power
(15 HR in 288 AB), but he also showed his shortcomings as a contact
hitter. Lane hit just .201, losing his
job to Luke Scott in the second half… Lamb is an outstanding platoon option,
and will likely serve in that role in a split with Morgan Ensberg again this
season. However, he’s going to lose some
at bats at first base as Lance Berkman now figures to play there full-time.
Starting Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Jason Jennings
Woody Williams
Wandy Rodriguez
Chris Sampson/Matt Albers
Oswalt is a perennial Cy Young
candidate who led the NL in ERA last season (2.98) and is an absolute
workhorse. Expect him to challenge the
twenty win mark for the third time in four seasons in 2007 while keeping
stellar secondary numbers yet again.
Just don’t expect that strikeout rate to rise. Oswalt has concentrated on being more efficient,
often pitching to contact so that he can throw deeper into games… A former
Rookie of the Year in Colorado, Jennings
clearly had his best season in 2006, though his win total didn’t reflect
it. Jennings
hit the 200 inning mark for the second time in three years while establishing
new career bests with a 3.78 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and 142 strikeouts. When you consider that half of those numbers
came in Coors, you can expect another fine season. His ERA figures to stabilize in the
high-threes this season, though the WHIP should come down to match it in a
better pitcher’s park with a stronger defense behind him… Williams appeared to
have a monster career revival for the second time in five years last season in
San Diego, cutting significantly into his ERA (down from 4.85 in 2005 to 3.65
last season) while bringing his WHIP down to a respectable 1.29. However, his strikeout rate dropped
dramatically as well (4.5 K/9 IP), and he won’t have those friendly confines of
Petco aiding him this season. Expect him
to come back to earth, particularly when you consider he’ll turn 41 late in the
year… Rodriguez started incredibly strong, allowing just a 2.53 ERA and 1.13
WHIP in April. Unfortunately, he was
unable to build on it, and kept an ERA no lower than 5.29 and WHIP no lower
than 1.60 in any month the rest of the way.
Without much depth at the back of the rotation, he figures to start in
2007, but he should be nowhere near your fantasy roster… Sampson was an
absolute monster out of both the bullpen and the rotation between AAA and the
Majors last season, and figures to have the inside track on the fifth spot for Houston
entering camp. The 28-year-old righty
had a 2.58 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 125.6 innings with Round Rock before receiving
a late call and posting a 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 34 innings (12 appearances,
3 starts) for the Astros. He’ll face a
challenge from Fernando Nieve and Matt Albers.
Closer
Brad Lidge
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Dan Wheeler
Chad Qualls
After establishing himself as an
elite closer in 2004 and 2005, Lidge struggled with the walk and the
gopher-ball last season, losing his job as the team’s closer twice along the
way. The power righty still struck out
100+ batters out of the bullpen for the third straight year and saved thirty
games, but finished with a horrible 5.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Expect him to turn things around this season
if he can correct his mechanics… Wheeler had his second straight season as a
dominant setup man in Houston,
maintaining a 2.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while striking out just under a batter an
inning. He’ll begin the year as the
setup man, but could earn a spot as the team’s closer if Lidge can’t recover
from last season. Wheeler is a terrific
option in holds leagues who should still have value
even if your league doesn’t use them… Qualls remained a strong seventh inning
option, cutting into his WHIP (1.17) for the second consecutive season while
winning a career-best seven games. He
doesn’t bring nearly the strikeouts that Lidge (or even Wheeler) does, but he’s
still worth a look in most mixed league formats because of his solid ERA, solid
WHIP, and potential for wins out of the bullpen. If your league includes holds, he becomes
even more valuable.
Position Battles
Morgan Ensberg vs.
Mike Lamb – You have to think that Ensberg is the favorite to win the job,
but Lamb is going to see plenty of time in the lineup whether he’s starting or
not. Ensberg doesn’t really struggle against righthanders, but Lamb
flat-out crushes them (.324/.380/.497 with 11 homers in 324 AB last season), so
he’ll get the call a lot of the time when a tough righty is on the hill. Ensberg’s potential as an all-around hitter
with the capability of hitting for average, power, and discipline, makes him
the favorite.
Chris Sampson vs.
Fernando Nieve & Matt Albers – Combine
Sampson’s poor strikeout rate with the fact that he wasn’t exactly dominating
age-appropriate competition at AAA last year, and you can expect a significant
dropoff if he wins the job. The Astros
realize this, and would love to see one of their actual starting prospects win
the job. However, Sampson’s performance
in a shortened stint with the big club in 2006 showed enough promise so that he
should be given every opportunity to earn the fifth spot. If two of the three perform above
expectations, Wandy Rodriguez had better have a good Spring
to hold down the fourth spot.
Sleepers
Chris Burke – In
just 366 AB last season, Burke hit .276 with nine homers and eleven
steals. While those numbers are far from
overwhelming, the average is likely to come up a touch in his third full season
(.316 in AAA between 2004 and 2005).
Already 26, he’s unlikely to add much more in the power department, but
his power numbers already translate in the 15-20 range over a full season. When you toss in that he has the speed to
steal 25-30 bases and consider that he’ll qualify at second base this season,
he could be a breakout star in 2007.
Jason Jennings – Jennings
had poor run support in Colorado
last season, and he’ll now shed Coors Field.
While his ERA isn’t likely to come down (it was actually a touch low
considering his 1.37 WHIP) from 3.78 in 2007, he’ll now have the advantage of
one of the better defensive infields in the league behind him and a home park
that suppresses average a bit more.
Expect the WHIP to come down to support the ERA, while he should win
twelve to fifteen games with a better Astros’ offense behind him.
Brad Lidge –
Lidge’s fall from grace was well publicized last season, as his awful 2005
postseason received much of the credit for his dropoffs. He’s simply been too good in the past to
write him off (particularly considering he’s just thirty) already. Based on last season’s numbers, Lidge is
probably going to drop to the middle tier of number two closers. While his upside could see him in the top
five, we’re going to chalk him up as a legit top ten option.
Duds
Luke Scott –
Honestly, given his recent performance in the high minors, there’s little to
suggest that Scott won’t continue to hit in the big leagues in 2007. However, while he’ll show plenty of power
again, his 2006 average (.336 at the big league level) is likely to come down
significantly. He hadn’t hit higher than
.299 at any level of the minors in the past three years, meaning that the
likelihood is that we’re looking at a .270-.280 hitter in 2007. Is that good?
Yeah… it’s even above average.
It’s far from .336, though.
Woody Williams –
Any pitcher on the wrong side of forty who had the worst strikeout rate (by
nearly 1.5 K/9 IP) of his career last season figures to be on the
downslide. However, Williams’ secondary
numbers in San Diego last year were
his best since 2002. Now out of Petco
Park, expect him to finish the year
with a mid-four ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Those
are numbers you shouldn’t sneeze at, but also ones that you don’t want to
overpay for in the preseason.
Player to watch for
Hunter Pence – Though
he looks to be a year away from a significant contribution in the big leagues,
Pence had a monster year at AA last season (.283/.357/.533 with 28 homers, 31
doubles, and a solid enough 60:109 walk to strikeout ratio), and figures to
begin the year in Round Rock after getting a look in the Spring. The 23-year-old outfielder has outstanding
power (59 homers the last two years between low-A and AA), a terrific batting
eye, and even stole seventeen bases last season in Corpus
Christi. Expect
him to get a cup of coffee late in the year before he gets a shot to make the
opening day roster in 2008.
Projected Finish: 79-83, 5th NL Central
Fantasy Baseball 
