Projected Lineup
3B Chone Figgins
SS Orlando Cabrera
RF Vladimir Guerrero
LF Garrett Anderson
DH Shea Hillenbrand
CF Gary Matthews, Jr.
2B Howie Kendrick
1B Casey Kotchman
C Mike Napoli
Figgins’ value drops significantly entering the 2007
campaign, as he no longer qualifies at his best position (2b) from last season
and is coming off of a career worst season in terms of batting average
(.267). He’s still a virtual lock for 50
steals in the Angels’ lineup, though there’s some confusion about whether he’ll
return to the leadoff role after the club signed Gary Matthews, Jr. in the
offseason…. Cabrera has a strong contact rate and can handle the situational
hitting required in the two-hole…. Guerrero is an absolute fantasy monster who
is a .325 career hitter and has averaged 35 homers the past three years…
Anderson and Hillenbrand give the club a couple of more solid average and power
threats in the middle of the order, though they lack the discipline required to
be legitimate studs… Matthews enters the 2007 campaign coming off of a career
year in an extreme hitter’s park. He
showed terrific power and an astounding ability to hit for average last season
in Texas, but figures to be
significantly overvalued in the preseason.
He’s a borderline starter in mixed leagues… Kendrick has tremendous
upside as a middle infielder, and should start to realize it in 2007. He projects as a Jeff Kent type, with
developing power and outstanding average-hitting skills, though he lacks the
speed normally associated with a fantasy starter at second. Don’t be surprised if he cracks the top ten
at the position… Kotchman suffered a lost season after dealing with
mononucleosis for most of the year. He’s
shown tremendous gap power in the minors with a terrific ability to hit for average…
Napoli had an outstanding start to the 2006 campaign,
clubbing eight homers in his first two months (113 AB), but struggled around
midseason, batting just .149 in July and August.
Other Hitters To
Watch
Robb Quinlan
Kendry Morales
Maicier Izturis
Juan Rivera
Quinlan proved adequate as an average-hitter with decent pop
backing up both corner infield spots in 2006.
He’ll again serve as a utility man on the infield, though he could
challenge for the starting gig at first base if Kotchman has a bad Spring…
Morales has big potential as a power/average threat, though it didn’t translate
well at the big league level in 2006. He
did still dominate at AAA, batting .320 with 12 homers in 256 AB…. Izturis
handled a move to third base with aplomb when injuries struck last season, and
went on to have his finest season, batting .293 and stealing fourteen
bases. He has little power to speak of,
though, and his backup role will limit his value to AL
Leagues… Rivera would make for a terrific starter in mixed leagues, but he’ll enter the year on the
disabled list with a broken leg, and may not return to the lineup until the
second half. He clubbed 23 dingers with
85 RBI while batting .310 in his best season yet for the Halos last season.
Starting Rotation
John Lackey
Kelvim Escobar
Jered Weaver
Ervin Santana
Joe Saunders/Bartolo Colon
Lackey continues to emerge as a borderline ace in fantasy
circles, keeping his ERA in the 3.50 range for the second straight season while
cutting into his WHIP (1.26) a touch and threatening the 200-strikeout plateau
for the second straight year… Escobar rebounded nicely after missing most of
the 2005 season with elbow surgery. At
his best, Escobar is a threat to challenge 200 strikeouts with a solid ERA in
the high threes and a WHIP in the 1.30 range… Weaver had a monster breakout
after getting the call in late May, winning his first seven starts and first
nine decisions en route to an 11-2, 2.56 ERA, and 1.03 WHIP showing as a
rookie. He’s as polished as it gets for
a youngster, and figures to have an outstanding follow-up to his dominant
rookie campaign… Santana dropped his BAA significantly to cut his WHIP from
1.39 as a rookie to 1.23 in his second full season. This led to improvements across the board, as
he shaved more than a third of a run off of his ERA and won sixteen starts as
the number four in Anaheim….
Saunders had a solid rookie effort after dominating AAA in 2006, winning seven
of ten decisions down the stretch for the Halos. Though he doesn’t project as a big strikeout
pitcher, he has outstanding control and should keep a decent ERA and WHIP
because of it. He’ll begin the year as
the fifth starter while 2005 AL Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon recovers from
shoulder surgery that ruined his 2006 season.
Closer
Francisco Rodriguez
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Scot Shields
Justin Speier
Hector Carrasco
K-Rod is the best closer this side of Joe Nathan and Mariano
Rivera. He led the league with 47 saves
last season after closing out 45 in 2005, while he kept his strikeout rate up
in the stratosphere by striking out more than 12 batters per 9 innings for the
third straight season. An absolute
monster, the only category where he won’t outperform most closers is WHIP…
Shields remains one of the top middle relievers in all of fantasy baseball
because of his durability, versatility, and high strikeout rates. He’s a monster in holds leagues who has kept
a sub-three ERA in each of the past two seasons with a WHIP in the 1.10 range…
Though forearm troubles sapped his effectiveness at times last season, Speier
continued to prove that he’s one of the better setup men in the business,
keeping a dominant 2.98 ERA despite a rising WHIP. He also tacked on in the strikeout department
to counter the WHIP problem, fanning a career-best 9.6 batters per 9
innings. He’ll serve as the seventh
inning man, and should rack up plenty of holds… Carrasco earned seven wins as
the swingman in the Angels’ bullpen, keeping a solid enough 3.41 ERA and 1.20
WHIP in the process as he built upon his astounding breakout campaign (5-4,
2.04 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) in Washington
in 2005. He’s a lock for a handful of
vulture wins as the long man in the Angels’ bullpen.
Position Battles
Chone Figgins vs.
Gary Matthews, Jr. – Make no mistake about it. Both players will play regularly as starters
in the field, but one will win the leadoff spot. Whoever does should score a ton of runs in
front of Cabrera and Vladdy Guerrero.
Casey Kotchman vs.
Kendry Morales & Robb Quinlan – Kotchman enters the season as a first
baseman who has proven absolutely nothing at the big league level, but still
has quality status as a prospect in the organization. He’ll enter camp as the favorite, having lost
his job to illness throughout the 2006 campaign, but could be pulled in favor
of Morales or Quinlan if he struggles at all.
Sleepers
Kendry Morales –
Kotchman has yet to prove that he can perform at the big league level, and
Morales’ upside is comparable. Even if
he can’t win the starting first base job, Morales figures to remain with the
club as a backup at the DH spot who can cover a corner outfield spot if
necessary. The 23-year-old has terrific
power potential, and can even hit for average.
Howie Kendrick –
Kendrick had a fine rookie season switching back and forth between first and
second base, but his average power production (4 homers) and stolen base total
(6 steals) from last season will likely keep him from being considered among
the elite options entering 2007 at second base.
He could easily be there by the end of the campaign, as he’s shown a
tremendous aptitude to hit for both power and average throughout the high
minors.
Duds
Jered Weaver –
He’s probably about as good as he’s going to get already, which is why so many
experts are predicting that he’ll have an ERA right around 3.00 in his first
full season while maintaining dominance with his WHIP and strikeouts. Expect a bit of a dropoff, making him a legit
number three or four starter in mixed leagues.
He may well be drafted as a number one based on last season’s
performance.
Gary Matthews, Jr. –
Matthews is coming off of a monster season in Texas,
but he’ll now leave those friendly confines to call a neutral park home. Combine that with the fact that he’ll be
considerably more exposed after finally breaking in as a full-time starter last
season, and we should expect a meteoric fall from grace. His average will come down significantly,
while he won’t improve on his power numbers, and he’s never been a tremendous
base-stealer.
Player to watch for
Erick Aybar –
Though he’s not even the best shortstop prospect in the Angels’ system (see:
Wood, Brandon), Aybar is coming off of a solid 2006 campaign in AAA and fits
the Angels’ system as a fantastic speed threat.
He projects as a 20/20 threat down the line who could eventually emerge
as a solid .300 hitter at the big league level.
With Cabrera in place and the infield pretty much set, Aybar will likely
begin the year at AAA, but could get the call if injuries strike.
Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st AL West
Fantasy Baseball 
