Projected Lineup
CF Juan Pierre
SS Rafael Furcal
1B Nomar Garciaparra
2B Jeff Kent
LF Luis Gonzalez
3B Wilson Betemit
RF Andre Ethier
C Russell Martin
Pierre had an
awful first half last season, but looked like he had for much of his career
after the break. A terrific slap-hitting
leadoff man, Pierre hits for no
power, though he’ll usually hit around .300 with 50+ steals. Expect the same in Los
Angeles in 2007… The addition of Pierre
will let the Dodgers do what both they and the Braves needed to do with Furcal
much earlier than this season: drop him to the two-hole. He’s a very good leadoff man, but his power
and his strong contact rate make him an even better fit in the two-hole…. Nomar had his healthiest season since 2003 and
responded with his usual high batting average (.303) while re-gaining a little
bit of the power stroke he showed back in his days with Boston. He remains a huge injury risk, and his
fantasy value in mixed leagues is limited now that he can only play first base…
Kent showed some of the inevitable signs of his age, as he hit the DL twice
with wrist and oblique injuries on his way to just fourteen homers in 407 at
bats… Gonzalez joins the old man brigade in the middle of the order, and while
he remains a fantastic doubles hitter, his home run power seems to be
gone. He’ll still hit for a fairly
decent average (.271 in each of the last two years) and get plenty of RBI
opportunities in the middle of the Dodger lineup… Betemit showed tremendous power
for a third baseman last season, bashing 18 homers in just 373 at bats. Unfortunately, his average dipped after a
deadline deal sent him to Los Angeles. On the positive side, that means he’ll have a
starting role in 2007… Ethier limped to the finish with a .143 average in
September, but showed a strong ability to hit for average throughout most of
the campaign while sprinkling in decent power and speed. He’s a 15/15 threat who could hit .300 in
2007… Martin looked strong as a rookie, batting .282 with 10 homers despite not
starting until May. He even stole ten
bases to go along with it. Always a good
average hitter with power in the minors, Martin arrived a year ahead of
schedule.
Other Hitters To Watch
1B James Loney
OF Matt Kemp
1B Olmedo Saenz
2B/OF Marlon Anderson
Loney has nothing left to prove in the minors after batting
.380/.426/.546 in AAA last season. A
supreme glove man with a quick bat, he has the ability to develop into a strong
average-hitter at a corner infield spot who can hit for double digit power…
Kemp showed off his outstanding power when he hit seven homers for the Dodgers
in June last season, but fell apart soon after, batting just .145 from July 1
on. He has power, speed, and an ability
to hit for average, and should fit into the Dodgers’ starting outfield by 2008. He may start the year at AAA so that he can
get regular at bats, though… Saenz crushes lefties (.397/.457/.741 in 58 AB
last season), which is about all you need to know about him. He’s a great power bat when called upon, but
will primarily be limited to pinch-hitting duties… Anderson
was a monster down the stretch for the Dodgers, batting .375/.431/.813 with 7
homers in 64 AB after being acquired from Washington. He’s a solid bat off the bench who can play
second base and the outfield. He can hit
for average and power, though his days of swiping bags are behind him. He’s best used in limited action, so that’s
where the Dodgers will keep him.
Starting Rotation
Jason Schmidt
Brad Penny
Derek Lowe
Randy Wolf
Mark Hendrickson/Chad Billingsley
As far as depth goes, the Dodgers may have the best rotation
in baseball. Schmidt could give the club
what they’ve lacked the last few years: a legit ace. Schmidt showed last season that, while he may
not be the pitcher he was in the early part of the decade, he can still
dominate. The power righty had a
terrific 3.59 ERA and 1.26 WHIP atop the Giants rotation, proving once again
that he can be durable when healthy by tossing 213 innings and maintaining a
strong strikeout rate to finish with 180 whiffs… Penny had a brilliant first
half, winning ten of his first twelve decisions while carrying a 2.91 ERA and
1.21 WHIP to the break. However, it all
went south from there. He started getting
lit up in July and never recovered, finishing with an awful 6.25 ERA and 1.60
WHIP after the break. He has lights out
stuff, but has never really put a full season together… Lowe remained as steady
as it gets, watching both his ERA and WHIP rise by just .02 in his second
season in L.A. He’ll pick up plenty of wins with a mid-three
ERA and solid WHIP. Just don’t bank on
many strikeouts and you’ll be fine with this three-category starter…
Hendrickson was acquired after a terrific first half in Tampa,
but had a miserable debut with the Dodgers.
He eventually saw himself shuffled off to the bullpen towards the end of
the year, but will get a crack at a rotation spot this Spring…
Considering he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, Wolf’s performance down
the stretch in Philadelphia wasn’t awful.
However, it certainly wasn’t fantasy worthy, as he kept a miserable 5.56
ERA and 1.69 WHIP. His reward was to
sign a one year, $7.5 million deal with the Dodgers this past offseason. Hey!
I’m lefthanded, and I could probably throw in
the mid-eighties if you gave me a few months to get in shape! Billingsley was strong at AAA, but struggled
with his control when he reached the majors last season. The Dodgers’ top prospect, he has a bright
future near the front of the rotation, but may begin the year in the bullpen
because of their depth in the rotation.
Closer
Takashi Saito
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Jon Broxton
Joe Beimel
Yhency Brazoban
Hong-Chih Kuo
By all accounts, Saito was brilliant in 2006. The 36-year-old rookie was even more dominant
in his first season in the U.S.
than he had been earlier in his career as an elite reliever in Japan. He had a phenomenal strikeout rate (12.3 K/9
IP) and worked his way into the closer’s role when injuries beset Eric Gagne
and Yhency Brazoban and Danys Baez was ineffective. Look
for his numbers to come back to earth a little in 2007, though he’ll still be a
top closer… Broxton will become a top closer himself in the next few years, and
hinted at his future brilliance in the role by keeping a terrific 2.59 ERA and
1.23 WHIP as a rookie. Though he didn’t
quite show the control we’d like to see from him, many rookies tend to struggle
in the walk department. On the positive
side, he was unhittable when he was on, and kept an 11.4 K/9 IP ratio… Beimel was
an effective lefty out of the ‘pen in his first season with the Dodgers,
keeping a 2.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 70 innings.
Though his strikeout rate (3.9 K/9 IP) was absolutely awful, he figures
to be the top lefty out of the bullpen, meaning he’ll see the bulk of the work
in setup situations that call for a lefty.
You heard that right, holds leaguers… Brazoban will be out until at
least May after Tommy John surgery, and doesn’t figure to have much of a role
near the back of the bullpen. That said, he’s capable of monster strikeout numbers and should
be someone to monitor if your league values middle relievers… Kuo wants to start, and was considerably better out of the
rotation late in the year for the Dodgers.
However, with that loaded rotation he figures to work as a swingman/long
reliever. He has strikeout an inning stuff, and could work his way into some vulture
wins out of the bullpen.
Position Battles
Randy Wolf vs. Mark
Hendrickson, Chad Billingsley, and Hong-Chi Kuo – Since
Wolf is the only one who seems virtually guaranteed a spot (read, $7.5 million
deal) in the rotation, we probably shouldn’t include him here. However, coming off of major surgery, we
still have to be a little concerned with him.
Hendrickson figures to be the favorite based on his experience at the
big league level, though Billingsley is a top prospect and Kuo
showed the potential to dominate late last year. The smart money’s on Hendrickson winning the
fifth spot with Billingsley getting shipped back to AAA and Kuo
working as a swing/long man out of the bullpen. Billingsley looked, at times, like he could
use a little more seasoning, while Kuo would have
less trouble working out of the bullpen than Hendrickson will.
Takashi Saito vs.
Jonathan Broxton – This really isn’t much of a battle, as Saito is coming
off of a brilliant season and will assuredly be the team’s closer heading into
2007. However, Broxton is ready to
assume the role, and should prove it in camp.
While that still means that Saito will get the ninth inning duties, it
could mean that Broxton serves as more of a 1A option than number two on the
depth chart, keeping Saito fresh. Many
other teams are going to envy the 1-2 punch the Dodgers will have at the back
of the ‘pen.
Sleepers
James Loney – Loney’s dominance at the AAA level and the fact that he’s
behind a major injury-risk like Garciaparra can’t be ignored. He won’t hit for great power, making him a
less than ideal choice at first base even if he does find himself in a
situation where he works his way up the depth chart. However, he would serve as an intriguing
option capable of carrying a fantasy squad’s batting average while finding
plenty of ways to drive in runs in a stacked Dodger lineup.
Wilson Betemit –
Take a “failed prospect”, shove him into a starting role in a park that
actually plays above the league average for home runs, and watch him
thrive. Betemit has upside as a
borderline starter at the hot corner in mixed leagues, and definitely has a
place in deeper leagues. Think 25 homer upside with a solid average.
Jonathan Broxton –
Broxton deserves a spot even if your league doesn’t carry holds as a category,
and he’s going to put a charge into Saito in camp. While he’s unlikely to steal the closer’s
role, Broxton could work his way into more than a handful of save situations throughout
the season, will vulture a few wins, and he’ll strike out close to 100 batters
out of the bullpen.
Duds
Nomar Garciaparra –
When playing in 122 games is your healthiest season in three years, there’s a
reason that you play on a team that’s loaded with strong backups. Nomar’s injury bug
will bite him again at some point this season, and Loney may just hit well
enough to steal plenty of at bats from him even when he’s healthy.
Player to watch for
Andy Laroche – If
Betemit wants to keep his job as the Dodgers’ third baseman, he’s going to have
to hold off LaRoche. Adam’s little
brother hit .315 with 19 homers, 27 doubles, and a phenomenal 66:64 walk to
strikeout ratio between AA and AAA last season.
The right-handed hitting power prospect seems ticketed for AAA to start
the year with a loaded roster in the big leagues, but will get a call around
midseason if everything goes well.
Projected Finish: 94-68, 1st NL West
Fantasy Baseball 
