Projected Lineup
2B Rickie Weeks
SS J.J. Hardy
1B Prince Fielder
CF Bill Hall
RF Geoff Jenkins
C Johnny Estrada
LF Corey Hart
3B Corey Koskie
Given that Weeks and Hardy have played just a combined 350
games in the past two seasons (or under 90 games a season), the Brewers
desperately need to find a way to keep their table-setting double play combo
healthy in 2007. Weeks could eventually
emerge as a 30/30 option if he can stay healthy, and showed signs of improvement
in the average-hitting department in 2006, bumping his average forty points….
Hardy doesn’t have nearly the offensive upside of Weeks, though he does have
good power for a middle infielder and an excellent glove up the middle…. In
2006, Fielder showed why, despite the
presence of fine young offensive forces like Weeks, Hardy, and Tony Gwynn, Jr., he is the top young offensive player in the
system. The 22-year-old rookie showed
outstanding power, bashing 28 homers while hitting .271/.347/.483 for the Brew
Crew, and even stole more bases as a rookie than his father (Cecil) did in his
entire career…. Given regular playing time for the second straight season, Bill
Hall doubled his home run total with a massive 35. He’s far from the force that he was in the stolen
base department when he was younger, but still hits for a solid average with
tremendous power. He’ll become the
starting centerfielder in 2007, and should thrive if the 500 at bats he’s seen
the past two years suddenly become 600… The wily vet amidst a bunch of
youngsters, Jenkins struggled to his worst season since 2002. Once considered a fine average-hitter with
decent pop, Jenkins will likely have to work his way out of a platoon as a
corner outfielder to rebound… Just as he did in 2004, Estrada showed a
tremendous aptitude for driving in runners last season in Arizona,
finishing with 71 RBI in just 115 games.
The veteran catcher also showed an ability to hit for average (.302)
with decent power for the position (11 homers in 414 AB)… Like Jenkins, Hart
figures to share time in what could be a six-man platoon flanking Bill Hall in
the corner outfield spots. He has good
power, quality discipline, and even managed to threaten double digits in steals
last season. He’ll make for a fine
NL-Only grab, and you’re just not human if you can resist the “Sunglasses at
Night” reference if he’s picked up in your draft… Koskie showed his typical
mid-range power with mediocre average-hitting skills before suffering a
season-ending concussion in July. He
doesn’t figure to hit for the average or power to earn mixed leaguers’
attention.
Other Hitters To Watch
Gabe Gross
Kevin Mench
Brady Clark
Laynce Nix
David Bell
Tony Graffanino
Craig Counsell
Simple math should tell you that the Brewers are unlikely to
carry a seven (well.. eight… we’re not mentioning
backup catcher Damian Miller) man bench.
Gross and Mench enter camp as the favorites to
earn a platoon role in the outfield.
Both have proven to be quality power options in the past, while the fact
that Mench is right-handed could play a role in his
making the club. Clark
figures to also have a strong shot at making the club because of his ability to
cover all three outfield spots, something that both Mench
and Gross would be unable to do… After signing a sizable $3.25 million deal,
Graffanino is an absolute lock to serve as the club’s primary utility
infielder, which will leave a spot for Bell
and Counsell to fight for. Counsell’s ability to cover every position aside from first
base and his ability as a speed threat who can fill in atop the order should
win out over Bell. Whichever outfielders
make the club will instantly earn quality status as NL-Only options, while only
Graffanino figures to have value as the primary utility infielder unless
injuries strike.
Starting Rotation
Ben Sheets
Chris Capuano
Jeff Suppan
Dave Bush
Claudio Vargas
When healthy, Sheets is an absolute fantasy monster,
maintaining a high strikeout rate, a nice low walk rate, and a terrific ability
to keep the ball down. If he makes 30
starts, he’s a threat to win the NL Cy Young, but
don’t hedge your bets on it… Capuano struggled through a rough second half,
though he again proved a formidable strikeout pitcher while keeping a fine
season-long ERA (4.04) and WHIP (1.25).
You have to think that there’s just no way he goes
1-8 after the break again in 2007, but he could make for a nice sell high
option around the All-Star Break… Suppan cashed in with a 4 year, $42 million
deal after a monster second half and
postseason as he won the NLCS MVP.
Still, his overall season numbers declined in 2006, as he watched his
ERA jump from the good (3.57) range it was in 2005 to a mediocre 4.12 while
compiling his worst WHIP (1.45) since 2000…. While Soupy had a down year in
terms of WHIP, Dave Bush solidified himself as a tremendous source in the
category. Bush cut into an already
excellent walk rate, allowing just 38 free passes in 210 innings for the Brew
Crew. While he proved to be excellent in
the strikeout department as well, his defense let him down a bit and his
HR/Allowed rate was a little high as he finished with a 4.41 ERA despite a
tremendous 1.14 WHIP… Vargas continued to look streaky in Arizona,
piecing together a handful of excellent starts and surrounding them with even
more pitiful ones. He might warrant a look in deep NL-Only
Leagues simply because the Brewers figure to have plenty of support around him,
but figures to have no value in mixed leagues.
Closer
Francisco Cordero
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Jose Capellan
Derrick Turnbow
Cordero got off to an awful start in Texas,
eventually losing his job to Akinori Otsuka.
However, a midseason trade helped him to re-gain some value for his
owners as he converted his last sixteen save chances in Milwaukee. Still, the underlying numbers didn’t really
support his meteoric improvement to his ERA, as he didn’t see much of an
improvement in the K/9 IP department and actually kept a higher WHIP with the
Brewers. Simply put, he was just a
little luckier… Capellan used his outstanding fastball to solidify his spot
with the big club last season, but struggled with his command at times, keeping
a high walk rate (31 in 71+ IP) and an even worse home run rate (11 in 71+ IP)…
The closer heading into the 2006 season, Derrick Turnbow earned a new nickname
in 2006, which may have had something to do with the fact that he converted
just 24 of 32 save opportunities or may have had something to do with the fact
that he just plain blew. Turnbow did
improve dramatically on his strikeout rate in his second season in Milwaukee,
but he also walked 39 batters in just 56 innings and allowed a .255 average
against, leading to a ridiculous 1.69 WHIP and 6.87 ERA.
Position Battles
All of those corner
outfielders – Based on past performance, Jenkins would seem like a lock to
make the roster, while Mench and Clark are long since
out of minor league options. Gross and
Hart provide the most upside among the youngsters, which probably means that we
can expect for Nix to be ticketed for AAA.
No matter what happens, expect platoons to be the order of the day. While it won’t make for any of them becoming
terrific fantasy options outside of being plug and play types, it should help
the Brewers on the whole because of their tremendous depth.
Craig Counsell vs.
David Bell – Counsell can cover more positions and is a more diverse player
at this point in their careers. Bell
was only signed to a minor league deal, so the cost won’t be that great if he
doesn’t make the squad. Both could end
up with the big club if Corey Koskie can’t come back healthy from his concussion.
Sleepers
Dave Bush – Bush
showed an ability to dominate from a strikeout perspective last season while
maintaining his outstanding control and a phenomenal WHIP. Expect his ERA to come down more towards his
DIPS ERA (3.92) to compensate for the disparities. In Milwaukee,
that could easily mean fifteen wins in 2007.
Prince Fielder –
Fielder enters the season a borderline starter in mixed leagues, but figures to
continue to add power and an ability to hit for average in his second full
season. He could easily end up a top
five first baseman by the end of the season who is
capable of 35 homers and a .300 average.
Duds
Chris Capuano –
After consecutive stellar seasons, Capuano looked like he was tiring down the
stretch in 2006. That’s never a good
sign from a pitcher with a history of arm trouble. Milwaukee’s
assault on the Cubs and Cardinals will depend largely on Capuano’s ability to
stay healthy and continue to dominate as the number two, but he’ll likely see a
bit of a dropoff in 2007.
Francisco Cordero –
Cordero has always kept a bit of a high WHIP, so it shouldn’t be surprising
that he had a 1.35 showing in the category after the trade. That said, it’s
unlikely that he can maintain an ERA anywhere near the 1.69 it was in Milwaukee
if it remains there. Expect an ERA in
the mid-threes, though he’ll remain the closer and have a solid season in Milwaukee. Just don’t overpay for his performance late
last season.
Player to watch for
Yovani Gallardo –
Words do little justice to the dominance that Gallardo displayed in 2006, as he
breezed through high A and AA ball with a 1.86 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an insane 188:51
strikeout to walk ratio in 155 innings pitched.
He’ll likely begin the year in Nashville,
and while he’s just 20 could emerge as one of the first arms up if an injury
strikes the rotation or Vargas remains ineffective at the back end.
Projected Finish: 85-77, 2nd NL Central
Fantasy Baseball 
