Projected Lineup
LF Terrmel Sledge/Jose Cruz, Jr.
2B Marcus Giles
RF Brian Giles
1B Adrian Gonzalez
CF Mike Cameron
3B Russell Branyan/Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS Khalil Greene
C Josh Bard
In what can only seem like a bit of an odd move, the Padres
are putting a lot of faith in Sledge to fill the leadoff role heading into
camp. He has decent speed and a good eye
at the plate, but has just a .261 career average in three seasons in the
majors, and has never proven that he can handle the everyday grind of a big league
job, much less handle the leadoff spot… Marcus Giles was used in the leadoff
role in Atlanta last season, and
really seemed to struggle with the move.
He maintained his great patience at the plate, but dealt with an
assortment of walking injuries in 2006 as his average dropped like a rock for
the second straight season (.262). He
should turn things around a bit in San Diego,
but his power numbers are likely to suffer because of it. His 20/20 upside just got dumped to 15/20…
Older brother Brian can tell Marcus all about why. Giles has transformed from a 35 homer man in
his days with the Pirates to a tremendous doubles hitter who can hit about
15-20 homers the past few years in San Diego. He’s still a useful option in deeper mixed
leagues, and carries a little more weight in OBP leagues… Despite having plenty
of opportunities to break out in hitter’s parks, it took a move to a pitcher’s
park and an injury to Ryan Klesko for Adrian Gonzalez to finally break
out. Always a solid average hitter with
developing power in the minors, Gonzalez watched that power develop as he hit
.304 with 24 homers despite playing in the toughest park to go yard in the
majors. Just 25, he’ll enter his second
season a huge breakout candidate capable of 30 homers, a .300 average, and 100+
RBI… Always a 20/20 threat, Cameron achieved the feat last season, blasting 22
bombs and swiping 25 bags. His average
is always a little lower than you would like from a number two outfielder, but
he still makes for a decent third option in mixed leagues because of his
power/speed combo… Kouzmanoff had a brilliant showing between AA and AAA last
season in the Indians’ system, batting .378 with 22 homers and a 1.086 OPS
between the levels before earning a late call-up with the Tribe. While his season will be best remembered
because he hit a grand slam on the first pitch that he saw with Cleveland, he
didn’t fare nearly as well once promoted to the majors. He did
still show plenty of power, though, with three homers in 56 at bats. The Pads acquired him in an offseason deal
that sent Josh Barfield to Cleveland,
but he’ll have to beat out Russell Branyan (.292/.416/.556 with 6 homers in 72
AB with San Diego last year) to
earn the gig at third… Greene continued to show terrific power for a middle infielder
in his third season, blasting fifteen homers in a cavernous home park for the
third straight year, but he hit the DL with a strained finger in August and
never returned. A wizard with the glove,
Greene hits for power, but has yet to show that he can hit for a fantasy-worthy
average… Bard escaped the hell of being Tim Wakefield’s personal catcher in Boston
and turned in a heck of a season backing up Mike Piazza. The 28-year-old hit a career-best nine homers
in 2006, displaying a tremendous batting eye and a quick bat as he also hit
.338. He’ll enter the year the
unquestioned number one for the first time in his career, and could be due to
bust onto the fantasy scene.
Other Hitters To Watch
IF Todd Walker
IF Geoff Blum
His glove is poor, and will keep him from having a regular
role in the field, but Todd Walker has shown that he can hit for both power and
average no matter where (or how often) he’s playing. He’s liable to serve as the primary backup at
first and second base, and should find his way into about 300 at bats…. Blum
was decent taking over at shortstop when Greene got hurt last season, but he
hits for little power and doesn’t run on the basepaths. He’ll hit for a solid .260 average, but isn’t
worth your attention no matter the size of your league.
Starting Rotation
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Clay Hensley
David Wells
Peavy dealt with shoulder tendonitis and a lack of vision at times (he started wearing contacts on the
mound during the summer), but still finished the year as a top ten fantasy
starter in the National League. He
finished just one strikeout short of his second consecutive title, though his
other numbers were down significantly in 2006 (11-14, 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). Pitching that well in a down year means,
Peavy is on the cusp of greatness… Young emerged as a huge fantasy force in his
first season in the National League.
Having moved from a top hitter’s park to the top pitcher’s park, Young
finished sixth in the NL with a 3.46 ERA, third in WHIP (1.13), and even amped
up his strikeout totals (8.2 K/9 IP). Just
hitting his prime, Young figures to dominate for the next five years… Maddux
seemed to revive his career after a deadline deal sent him to Los
Angeles. In his
final twelve starts, he wasn’t quite the Maddux of old (what I like to call
first ballot Hall of Famer Maddux), but he was still dominant. He went 6-3 down the stretch for the Dodgers
with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. When all
was said and done, he’d won fifteen games for the seventeenth time in eighteen
years… Hensley was masterful in his first full season in the big leagues,
sporting a 3.71 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Though he’s a bit old for a prospect and doesn’t carry a big strikeout
rate, he has a potentially dominant sinker, solid command, and a great home
park behind him. Look for a similar
performance in 2007… Wells looked like he was done in the first half in Boston,
but he came back and looked solid to close the year in San Diego, keeping a
3.49 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with the Pads down the stretch. He’ll return to San
Diego this season, where he’s expected to serve as the
fifth starter and carries little fantasy value because of his age (43) and his
lack of dominance in the strikeout department.
Closer
Trevor Hoffman
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Scott Linebrink
Cla Meredith
Royce Ring
Scott Cassidy
Hoffman was the most effective closer in the National League
for much of last season, and set the big league save record in September. He’s a virtual lock for 35+ saves, solid
ratios, and even a decent strikeout rate… Linebrink had his worst season since
coming over to the Padres in 2003, but he was still one of the better setup men
in baseball, and actually led the majors with 36 holds. In short, if your league values holds, you
want him on your roster… Meredith seemingly came out of nowhere after being
acquired from Boston to win five
games while posting a dominant 1.07 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in a middle relief role
with San Diego. His numbers are sure to come up as hitters
become a little more used to his submarine style, but he figures to have
another strong season near the back of the bullpen in San
Diego. In holds
leagues, he’s a must, while he still has plenty of value in mixed leagues that
don’t use the category… Ring had a fine showing at Norfolk,
and even did fairly well serving as a lefty in the Mets’ bullpen late in
2006. One of just two lefties figured to
challenge for a role in the Padre pen, he could figure to have plenty of value
in holds leagues as a lefty specialist… Cassidy won six games out of the ‘pen
last season while keeping a great 2.53 ERA and a modest 1.36 WHIP. He also struck out a batter an inning, and
figures to serve in a middle relief role again in 2007. He’ll have some value in NL Leagues, but
doesn’t figure to be worth much of a look in mixed leagues.
Position Battles
Russell Branyan vs.
Kevin Kouzmanoff – The Padres would like Kouzmanoff to perform well in the
Spring and win the job, but he’s yet to hold down a job as a big league
regular. Both he and Branyan have
terrific power, and one of them will instantly earn value in mixed leagues if
there’s a clear winner. Kouzmanoff’s the
kid with upside, while Branyan is the all-or-nothing power hitter capable of 30
homers if he gets 400+ at bats… even in Petco!
Terrmel Sledge vs.
Field – Sledge really only has value (to the Padres… not your fantasy team)
if he proves he can hold down the leadoff job.
In Jose Cruz, they have another option who could capably fill a corner
outfield spot while displaying decent power and speed. Sledge really just needs to prove that he can
hit for average with patience, and the job should be his. He has little to no value in fantasy drafts,
though he could make for a decent in-season pickup if he proves he can handle
the job.
Sleepers
Marcus Giles –
Giles simply can’t be as bad as he was last season, when he entered the season
as a top five second baseman. Petco will
sap his power a bit, meaning he’ll probably never realize his 20 homer upside,
but he can hit for average with decent power and even steal a few bases. At a thin position like second base, that
would make him a quality top ten option.
Duds
Khalil Greene – A
lot of people will be high on him, and rightfully so. He’s shown fantastic power for a young hitter
despite playing in one of MLB’s toughest parks to homer in. However, his inability to hit for average and
his injury history early in his career should scare you off a bit. Greene has yet to manage 500 at bats in any
of his first three seasons.
Player to watch for
Cesar Carillo – The
club’s first round pick in 2005, Carillo dominated in a short stint at AA (3.02
ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 43:15 K:BB ratio in 50 innings), but made just one start in AAA
before being shut down with elbow and forearm injuries. He’s expected to be ready to compete in
Spring Training, but will likely start the year in Portland. From there, all he’ll need is to stay healthy
and have a decent showing to earn a midseason call-up.
Projected Finish: 88-74, 2nd NL West
Fantasy Baseball 
