1. Johan Santana – Words
almost fail to express how dominant Santana was last season. Santana, who will turn 28 just a month before
the 2007 season starts, won not just the American League pitching Triple Crown,
but the Major League Triple Crown. He
tied Chien-Ming Wang for the big-league lead with 19 wins, was one of just two
qualifiers for the ERA title in either league with an ERA under 3.00, beating
Roy Oswalt by nearly a quarter of a run for the ERA title, and struck out 29
more batters than NL strikeout champ Aaron Harang while winning the AL title by
43 over Jeremy Bonderman. Santana also
led all qualifiers with a 1.00 WHIP while finishing second in baseball with a
5.21 K/BB ratio, second with a 9.44 K/9 IP ratio, and third with a .216 Batting
Average Against en route to winning a unanimous AL Cy
Young award.
FIC Spin: At
least the voters got it right this time…. Yes.
I have a man crush, and his name is Johan Santana. It’s difficult to find a player at any
position who is more dominant over the second best performer than Santana
is. Hands down, Santana is the top
pitcher in fantasy baseball, and shouldn’t make it out of the top five in any
league.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
225.0
|
22
|
5
|
245
|
2.71
|
174
|
44
|
0.97
|
0.208
|
2. Jake Peavy – After
winning the NL ERA crown in 2004 and the strikeout title in 2005, the sky
seemed like the limit for Peavy entering last season. However, he had both a rough start and a
rocky middle of the season before looking like his old dominant self down the
stretch. Despite the awful start, Peavy
finished strong with a 2.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in the season’s final two
months. If there was one thing he did continue to do all season, it was
making hitters swing and miss. Peavy
finished just one strikeout short of Aaron Harang in search of his second
straight NL strikeout title while leading the majors with 9.56 strikeouts per 9
innings pitched.
FIC Spin: Peavy
leaked some information that he’d been pitching with a sore shoulder before
facing the Cardinals in the playoffs, meaning that we have a bit of an
explanation for his poor early performance.
Expect him to come to camp healthy in 2007 and return to dominance,
possibly challenging for the NL Cy Young Award.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
233.6
|
20
|
7
|
243
|
3.13
|
196
|
59
|
1.09
|
0.221
|
3. Chris Carpenter – There
would have been few complaints if Carpenter had won his second straight Cy Young award in 2006.
Carpenter won fifteen games for the Cardinals with a fantastic 3.09 ERA
and an NL leading 1.07 WHIP. Carp was
also a top ten strikeout pitcher for the second consecutive season, fanning 184
in 221 innings. As if that weren’t
enough, he continued to dominate in the postseason, surrounding one poor outing
in Game 2 of the NLCS with three strong efforts before turning in one of the
more brilliant World Series starts in recent memory, allowing just three hits
while not going to a three-ball count on a single batter in a 5-0 victory en
route to the Cardinals title.
FIC Spin: Coming
off of three phenomenal seasons, Carpenter has proven himself as an elite
ace. The only pitcher that is a lock to
outperform him in 2007 is Santana.
Consider him a solid option late in the second round who
should carry your team in four categories.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
225.6
|
20
|
7
|
193
|
3.12
|
199
|
46
|
1.08
|
0.230
|
4. Roy Oswalt – Since
a slightly down year in 2004, Oswalt has continued his ascension up the
ranks. Last season, he posted a 2.98 ERA
to lock up his first NL title in the category.
Though his strikeout totals have dipped for two straight reasons,
there’s actually good reason for it.
Oswalt has become more adept at using his defense, often pitching to
contact so that he can work deeper into ballgames. His 14.8 pitches per inning ranked him eighth
in the majors last season, while his 6.89 innings per start ranked him behind
only Brandon Webb and Chris Carpenter.
FIC Spin: An
absolute fantasy monster, Oswalt is a four-category stud who
shouldn’t make it out of the third round.
He should even crank up the strikeouts a touch in 2007.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
226.6
|
20
|
7
|
192
|
3.10
|
221
|
44
|
1.17
|
0.248
|
5. Roy Halladay – Halladay
again displayed his phenomenal control in 2006, finishing second behind Curt
Schilling in BB/IP with just 34 walks in 220 innings. While his strikeout rate dipped from 6.9 to
5.4/9 IP, the rest of Halladay’s numbers more than
made up for it, as he finished second in the AL with a 3.19 ERA and 1.10
WHIP. Toss in an outstanding 16-5
record, and Halladay maintained his status as an ace despite missing half of
the 2005 season.
FIC Spin: Though
he doesn’t produce the strikeout totals that the rest of the top five do, Halladay’s consistent dominance when healthy makes him a
fringe ace or legit number one. While
it’s unlikely he sees better run support, Halladay should see better bullpen
support in 2007, which should lead to a boost in his win total.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
216.0
|
21
|
6
|
146
|
3.01
|
195
|
35
|
1.07
|
0.235
|
6. John Lackey – A
poor August left Lackey well short of the league leaders in both ERA and WHIP,
but he performed extremely well in every other month. Apart from his August (1-3, 6.55, 2.16),
Lackey was a fantasy monster who maintained an ERA of 3.57 or lower and a WHIP
of 1.14 lower in every month. His 190
strikeouts ranked him third in the AL
and seventh in the majors, while his season-long 3.56 ERA and 1.26 WHIP were
more than respectable. Unfortunately,
Lackey still couldn’t find a way to make his terrific campaign turn into a ton
of wins, as he finished just 13-11, and has yet to win more than fourteen games
in a season.
FIC Spin: Lackey
has struck out 389 batters in the past two seasons with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.30
WHIP. If he can find a way to slice into
that WHIP just a little bit and find
ways to get more support from his mates, Lackey could easily be a fantasy ace
in 2007.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
218.3
|
18
|
9
|
203
|
3.36
|
190
|
65
|
1.17
|
0.228
|
7. Felix Hernandez – The
ascension of King Felix didn’t begin as advertised in the 2006 season, though
he did display plenty of hope that one was on the way. Hernandez struck out 176 batters in 191
innings and displayed significant improvement in the second half for the last
place Mariners. After a dreadful first
half, the second-year phenom came back strong with a 4.02 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in
87 innings, but still finished the campaign 12-14 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.34
WHIP. Better years are ahead for the
young fireballer, and this year should mark a
breakout.
FIC Spin: Hernandez’
struggles last season should have been expected. After the league got a good look at him near
the end of 2005, they adjusted. Around
midseason, Felix did the same, and looked considerably better down the
stretch. He’ll still turn just 21 a week
into the season, and should naturally continue to evolve into the stud everyone
foresaw he would become.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
220.3
|
16
|
12
|
218
|
3.77
|
197
|
63
|
1.18
|
0.233
|
8. Scott Kazmir – When
healthy, Kazmir was magnificent last season, shaving nearly one and a half
walks per nine innings from his league-high 100 walks in 2005. However, he started to experience shoulder
pain in late July and hit the disabled list.
Upon returning in mid-August, Kazmir made just three more starts the
rest of the way before having to shut it down for the rest of the year. He did make dramatic improvements with his
secondary numbers when he was in the lineup, shaving nearly half a point off
his ERA while cutting his WHIP from 1.46 (2005) to 1.27. More importantly, he improved on his already
phenomenal strikeout rate, fanning 10.1 batters per 9 innings.
FIC Spin: A
borderline ace, Kazmir will be surrounded by injury concerns because of his
frail frame and the fact that he missed nearly two months with shoulder
problems last season. Toss in a shaky
supporting cast in Tampa Bay,
and you have to think he’s unlikely to reach the lofty expectations his numbers
have set for him entering his third season.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
201.6
|
16
|
12
|
220
|
3.33
|
176
|
83
|
1.29
|
0.229
|
9. John Smoltz – Though
his ERA and WHIP both rose in his second season back in the rotation, Smoltzie won two more games (16) than he did in 2005 while
posting a ridiculous strikeout rate for a 39-year-old. Smoltz finished the year third in the NL with
211 strikeouts in 232 innings to make himself a force in the category once
again. More importantly, while his
secondary numbers went up a touch, he still finished in the top ten in the
majors with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
FIC Spin: Even at
40, Smoltz is still ace material. He’ll
challenge twenty wins and 200 strikeouts while keeping an ERA around 3.50 and a
WHIP under 1.25. He may be in his
twilight years, but somebody forgot to mention that to him.
2007 Projection:
|
IP
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
ERA
|
H
|
BB
|
WHIP
|
BAA
|
|
224.0
|
18
|
7
|
183
|
3.49
|
221
|
53
|
1.23
|
0.251
|
10. Brandon Webb – Webb
produced career-bests across the board, winning 16 games, tossing a career-high
235 innings, and finishing third in the National League with a 3.10 ERA as he
won his first Cy Young award. Webb did it all while lowering his walk rate
for the second consecutive season and finishing fifth in the majors with a 1.13
WHIP. Known more for his sinkerball than
his power arsenal, Webb continued to show that he can strike out a ton of
batters regardless of the fact that he doesn’t overpower hitters.
FIC Spin: Just
28, Webb is entering his prime. Don’t be
surprised to see him at least come close to repeating last year’s Cy Young effort. Most
importantly, with Randy Johnson added to the fold, Webb may have a little less
pressure on himself to perform
2007 Projection:
Fantasy Baseball 
