Projected Lineup
CF Kenny Lofton
SS Michael Young
3B Hank Blalock
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Ian Kinsler
DH Frank Catalanotto/Jason Botts
LF Brad Wilkerson
C Gerald Laird
RF Nelson Cruz
Though he’s clearly past his prime, Lofton had a second
consecutive strong season leading off for the Dodgers in 2006, swiping more
bags (32) than he had in any single season since 1998 while batting .300 for
the second year in a row. He’s a quality
leadoff option capable of 30 steals and a .300 average… Young’s power and
average dropped off significantly in 2006, though he
did still end up with a career best 103 RBI.
A free-swinger near the top of the Rangers’ lineup, Young led the majors
with 691 at bats last season. He’s as
durable as it gets, and he’s hit .300 in each of the past four seasons… Blalock
continues to inexplicably decline, and hit just 16 homers last season after
bashing 32 in 2004. Just 27, he still
has tremendous upside as a 25 homer option who is
capable of hitting for average and driving in100 runs in a vaunted Rangers’
lineup… Tex had a weak first
half, but resumed his absolute dominance by batting .291 with 24 homers in the
second half last season. He’s a cinch
for 30 homers in a bad year with the potential to hit 50… Despite missing
nearly two months due to injury, Kinsler showcased
the talent that had so many fantasy owners excited about him as a rookie,
batting .286 with double digit power and speed.
He only figures to get better… Catalanotto is an extreme split player,
but he can be dominant when a righthander is on the mound. Botts has tremendous
power as a potential DH, but will have to wait to show it off as he works his
way into the lineup in a platoon role… Finally in a better park and lineup,
Wilkerson was considered a big sleeper entering last season, but disappointed
because of his awful strikeout rate.
While the .222 average figures to come up, he’s never going to realize
his potential because of the whiffs… Laird earned the starting role with a .296
average last season in a platoon role with Rod Barajas, but hasn’t shown nearly
enough as a power threat or a regular… Cruz brings 20/20 potential to the back
of the lineup, though his lack of experience and slightly high strikeout rate
mean he’s not a lock to start.
Other Hitters To Watch
OF Marlon Byrd
OF Victor Diaz
Byrd struggled to a .223/.317/.350 season for the Nationals
in 2006, further dropping his former prospect status. He’ll serve as the fourth outfielder in Texas,
and figures to show a little power and speed… Diaz showed tremendous power as a
rookie in 2005, but failed to make enough of an impression to stick. The 25-year-old still showed decent pop in Norfolk
for the Mets last season, but hit just .224 in 379 AB.
Starting Rotation
Kevin Millwood
Vicente Padilla
Brandon McCarthy
John Koronka
Robinson Tejeda
Millwood is a proven winner capable of 7 strikeouts per 9
innings, but the fact that he calls one of the better hitter’s havens home
drops his value significantly. After
leading the AL with a 2.86 ERA in
2005 for Cleveland, he watched his
ERA jump to 4.52 last season in Arlington…
Padilla showed significant improvement after bouts with injuries and
ineffectiveness led to poor 2004 and 2005 showings. The 29-year-old righty’s
7 strikeouts per 9 innings provided his best performance in the category since
he became a starter in 2002, while his 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP were nothing to
sneeze at towards the back of a fantasy rotation… McCarthy struggled to stick
as a reliever in Chicago last
season, prompting a deal that sent him to the Rangers. He’ll serve as the number three in Texas,
and has big strikeout potential after winning the minor league K title in 2004
and striking out 130 AAA hitters in 119 innings in 2005… Koronka
proved to be an adequate fifth starter for most of the 2006 campaign as a
rookie, but struggled late with an 11.25 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in the second half
before he was sent down and shut down in August. Needless to say, he has no place in your
fantasy rotation… Despite a high WHIP overall, Tejeda had a terrific second
half for the Rangers, winning four of six decisions down the stretch with a
2.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP after an August promotion.
Closer
Eric Gagne
Other Bullpen Arms of Note
Akinori Otsuka
Joaquin Benoit
Wes Littleton
With Gagne, it’s just a question of whether he can stay in
the lineup. While the former NL Cy Young
winner has been limited to just 15.3 innings the past two years, he’s looked as
dominant as ever when in the lineup, striking out a ridiculous 14.7 batters per
9 innings. If he’s healthy, he’s capable
of forty saves with a sub-2.00 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and 100+ strikeouts. If you believe he’s going to stay healthy,
though, I have some lakefront property I’d like to sell you in Jersey…..
Otsuka proved to be more than adequate as the closer last season after
Francisco Cordero tanked the first month, converting 32 of 36 chances while
keeping a terrific 2.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Though he’s not a monster in the strikeout department and he won’t assume
the closer’s role until (not unless) Gagne gets hurt, Otsuka will remain a
strong fantasy factor even if Gagne miraculously stays healthy because of his
strong ratios. He’s particularly
valuable in holds leagues… Benoit flashed his tremendous strikeout ability in
his first full season in the bullpen, but did little else to help fantasy
owners. He counters his strong strikeout
rate with a high walk rate, and generally keeps a high WHIP. Toss in how well Comerica plays for hitters,
and he can be disastrous at times… An in-house future closer, Wes Littleton
dominated the high minors before earning a midseason call-up with the
Rangers. While his strikeout rate dipped
significantly at the big league level, he still had a fine showing, finishing
with a 1.73 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 36 innings with the big club. He’ll likely serve as the seventh inning guy
to get the game to Otsuka and Gagne.
Position Battles
Nelson Cruz vs. Frank
Catalanotto & Jason Botts – Cruz has tremendous upside after posting
consecutive 20 homer and double digit steal seasons in
the minors. However, he’s largely
unproven at the big league level, and will likely have to earn his starting
role in right field. Catalanotto fits
best as a platoon player because of his enormous splits against righthanders,
but can handle the job if Cruz doesn’t have a strong Spring. Botts is a capable
power hitter who could challenge the 25 homer mark given 500 at bats, so the
Rangers will want to find a way to work him into the lineup on a consistent
basis.
John Koronka vs. Bruce Chen – The Rangers brought in Chen
with a minor league deal, and he’s expected to challenge for the fifth spot in
the rotation. A finesse lefty, Chen
showed the ability to dominate in 2004 and 2005 before falling apart after being
reunited with Leo Mazzone last year in Baltimore. Koronka had an
average rookie campaign, and doesn’t really fit in as a future starter in the
rotation, but enters camp as the incumbent and the favorite for the fifth spot.
Sleepers
Hank Blalock –
Blalock simply can’t be completely in decline.
Just 27, he’s shown aptitude as both a power hitter and an average
hitter in the past, and his spot in the lineup should be conducive to driving
in a ton of runs for the Rangers. He’s
always been significantly better in Arlington
than he has on the road, but it didn’t show last season as he hit just .278 with
8 homers at home.
Nelson Cruz –
Cruz’ 20/20 potential makes him a tremendous sleeper as a third or fourth
outfielder in mixed leagues. He has
solid discipline, an improving contact rate, and tremendous power and speed,
though he’ll have to prove it early on.
Duds
Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy
struggled with the longball last season, allowing 17 homers in just 84 innings
for the White Sox. Now expected to work
his way into the rotation in Texas,
McCarthy will enter the 2007 season near the top of a lot of sleeper
lists. However, the HR/Allowed rate
doesn’t figure to decline as he goes from a neutral hitter’s park to an extreme
one. Expect him to have a solid showing,
but finish with an ERA in the 4.75 range in his first season as a big league
starter.
Eric Gagne –
Gagne enters the season as a huge question mark, though he’s claiming he’s 100%
entering camp. He did the same thing
last season, before getting shut down for the first two months and eventually
making just two appearances out of the bullpen.
There’s little doubt that he’ll spend some time in the Rangers’ bullpen,
but how long he can go before hitting the DL again remains to be seen. Don’t take the gamble until the top fifteen
closers are gone.
Player to watch for
Joaquin Arias –
Arias didn’t exactly dominate at AAA last season, but he was a little young for
the level. Once considered the Rangers’
SS of the future, he’s now accepting a move to the outfield, where he should
have an easier time breaking into the lineup in the next couple of
seasons. He should start the year at AAA
so that he can learn the position and face more age-appropriate competition,
but could get a cup of coffee late in the year as the Rangers take a look at
what they have for 2008.
Projected Finish: 82-80, 3rd AL West
Fantasy Baseball 
