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The Hook

Columnist: James Meyerriecks

Intro to Rankings, Projections, and Auction Values
March 05, 2007


Rankings

Our overall rankings are based on each player's end of season production in the standard 5X5 categories. For those who are new to fantasy baseball and aren't completely familiar with what a standard league would entail, here are the statistics used to compile a player's rank and overall value:

Offensive Players

Batting Average
Runs
Home Runs
RBI
Stolen Bases

Pitchers

Wins
ERA
Strikeouts
Saves
WHIP (Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched)


To figure a player's overall 5X5 value, we then apply a modifier to each statistical category which will determine its importance. Obviously, the more rare the statistic, the more valuable the modifier. All modified performance is then pieced together to comprise the player's total value.

In creating the Top 900 list, we then compare each player's overall 5X5 value to the other players at his position. We modify the list based on positional scarcity to give the player's overall draft value.

Projections

Our projections are determined based on what we like to call an Adjusted Three Year Average. What this means is that we take each player's performance over the past three seasons, modify it so that their more recent production has a little more weight than their earlier production. For example, each player's 2006 statistics have significantly more weight than that same player's production in 2004.

From there, we modify each player's expected performance based on a handful of factors, including lineup support, their home park (assuming it has changed), their age/MLB experience, their projected spot in the order, injury history, etc. These modifiers are then applied to each player's Three Year Adjusted Average to come up with the projection.

Auction Values

All Auction Values (NL/AL/Mixed) are determined based on a standard twelve team 5X5 league with 23 man rosters and a $260 cap. Like the draft ranking, this is based on Projected End of Year Value, rather than necessarily meeting the expected price in your auction league. Players with negative dollar amounts are expected to do exactly that.. have a negative all-around value to your team.

Posted by James Meyerriecks: Mar 5 at 9:08 PM

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