The Hook

Though it's important not to overrate it, positional scarcity is bound to affect your draft at some point. The top players at some positions, like first base and the outfield, typically aren't nearly as much better than some of the middle tier options as they are in others, such as catcher and second base.

 

Here's what the average of the top twelve players at each position should be giving you:

 

Catcher:

G	AB	Avg.	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	SB
133	487	0.290	141	30	17	67	75	3

 

First Base:

G	AB	Avg.	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	SB
154	570	0.301	172	36	41	103	123	3

 

Second Base:

G	AB	Avg.	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	SB
146	571	0.290	165	33	18	93	71	22

 

Third Base:

G	AB	Avg.	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	SB
152	570	0.301	172	39	29	100	105	12

 

Shortstop:

G	AB	Avg.	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	SB
154	613	0.298	183	37	18	104	74	31

 

Outfield:

G	AB	Avg.	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	SB
152	583	0.291	170	32	27	99	90	20

 

Starting Pitcher:

IP	W	L	K	ERA	H	BB	WHIP
206.2	15	9	171	3.80	192	60	1.22

 

Relief Pitcher:

G	IP	W	L	SV	HLD	SO	ERA	H	BB	WHIP
76	81	3	3	28	7	85	3.09	64	28	1.16

 

A simple look at the numbers can tell you that a player like Albert Pujols will significantly outproduce the average fantasy first baseman. However, it’s debatable whether his increase in production over a middle tier first baseman is at the same level as a Jose Reyes when compared to the top twelve shortstops. While Pujols is our unquestioned recommendation for the top pick overall in fantasy leagues, the depth at first base is what should be leading other fantasy owners to other (more scarce) positions if they’re not picking near the top of the pecking order. While Reyes’ pure numbers put him slightly ahead of Miguel Cabrera as our number two overall pick, the positional scarcity makes it a landslide in Reyes’ favor.

 

This can be found throughout our rankings. Brian Roberts is ranked 37^th overall in terms of expected all-around production, but when you consider his numbers in comparison with the rest of the players at second base, he bumps up to 26. Joe Mauer will post terrific enough numbers from the catcher slot to rank him 89^th overall with his production, which is astounding for a catcher. When you consider what the average starting fantasy catcher does for you, though, he jumps to 40^th in our overall rankings based on positional scarcity.

 

Again, though, it’s important not to overrate this later in your draft. While you may look and see that the top eight catchers have come off the board in the tenth or eleventh round, it’s not time to jump and grab Michael Barrett (overall rank: 181) ahead of a much better all-around player like a Curtis Granderson or Jacques Jones in the next couple of rounds. One of the better things about positional scarcity is that so many people tend to overrate it.

 

When you notice that the other owners in your draft are going gaga about grabbing a Ryan Freel or Josh Barfield in the fourth round, be ready to stick it to them by grabbing that power-hitting stud or speedster in the outfield that you think is the best player on the board. Don’t get caught up in runs because of the scarcity of a position, as your team will usually end up weaker overall for it. Runs generally mean one thing…. All of the other owners in your draft have now filled that scarce position, so if you have a sleeper second baseman or catcher you’ve been keeping your eye on, they’re probably going to last longer now that the run is complete.

 

The key is to find a healthy balance. Know what you’re looking for at each position heading into your draft. If you can exceed expectations at a scarce position, more power to you! However, don’t let it rule your draft. Be prepared to adjust by dropping your expectations at a thinner position to exceed them somewhere else.