As any of you who have played in a fantasy league of any
kind before know, drafts can be lost
in the first five rounds, but they’re awfully difficult to win that early. For this reason, you’re always going to want
to have at least a handful of guys at every position who you think will provide
significantly more value than their draft position. Most of us call these players sleepers, and
we’re giving you a few at every corner of the diamond.
Catcher
Sleeper: Chris
Iannetta – Yeah. We’ve seen it all
before. Young catcher tears up the minor
leagues and is suddenly handed the reins as the starter in Coors Field. I think many of you probably remember J.D. Closser and Ben Petrick’s names
well, and here’s why we’re going to forget it when we think about Iannetta. Iannetta’s plate
patience is considerably better than either Petrick
or Closser’s ever was, and he’s even got a pretty
strong contact rate. He’s a virtual lock
to hit .270 with double digit power… even if he doesn’t win the starting job he’s expected to.
Super-Sleeper: Miguel
Montero – Why even bother leaving the division. Montero won’t have Coors Field behind him,
but he’s further along in the power department.
The 23-year-old rookie has bashed 43 homers in the past two years in the
minors and showed that he can hit for contact (1 K:6.51
AB) and discipline (1 BB:8.98 PA). His
offensive potential makes him the favorite to start the year as the number one
catcher in Arizona, and he could
easily hit twenty bombs if he earns a healthy split over Chris Snyder.
Others: Carlos Ruiz
First Base
Sleeper: Casey Blake
– Blake was well on his way to a career year last season before an oblique
injury shut him down for a few weeks before the break. Upon his return, he didn’t hit for quite the
average that he was hitting for, but he continued to flash terrific power with
nine homers in 187 at bats after the break.
Entering camp completely healthy, he’s going to be in the lineup
everyday between a corner outfield spot and first base, and he’s more than
capable of challenging thirty homers.
Super Sleeper: Ryan
Shealy – All the kid did in the minors was mash, so we were obviously all
disappointed when he began the 2006 season back in Colorado Springs. However, after he hit fifteen more bombs in the first half in AAA, he
earned a brief call-up before the Rockies finally traded him to someone that could
use his skills. Shealy hit seven bombs
in 193 post-deadline at bats with the Royals, and is
penciled in as their starting first baseman this season. Given 500 at bats, he could threaten the
thirty homer mark, and he can even hit for average.
Others: Ryan Garko,
Casey Kotchman, James Loney
Second Base
Sleeper: Howie
Kendrick – Kendrick certainly did enough after he received the call to show
us that he’s going to be in Los Angeles
for a long time. However, he didn’t
flash nearly the power that he showed throughout his minor league career. Expect that to change as he settles in and
becomes a solid double-double option in his second full season. He’s going to keep hitting for average as
well.
Super-Sleeper: Kelly
Johnson – How everything pans out in the Spring
will determine how much value Johnson has.
If he can win the starting job at second base (as expected), he’ll lead
off and should have monstrous value in front of Renteria and the Jones
Boys. Assuming Johnson does what’s
expected of him in March, we’ll be looking at a potential 15/15 option in the
middle infield who should threaten the century mark in runs scored.
Others: Chris Burke
Third Base
Sleeper: Edwin
Encarnacion – Though he got off to a solid start before spraining his ankle
and costing himself about a month, Encarnacion showed absolutely no ill effects
upon his return. In fact, he may have
been better in the second half after
coming back from injury, as he hit fourteen points higher and jacked three more
bombs (though his OBP and Slugging were actually down just a touch). There was little that we didn’t like of what
we saw from the kid in his first full season.
He hit a solid .276, showed plenty of power in the homer department for
a 23-year-old (15 homers), and even showed some promise of more power in the
future by hitting 33 doubles in just 406 at bats. Go get him!
Super-Sleeper: Alex
Gordon – He only needs to make the club out of Spring Training to be worth
a starting spot in fantasy leagues.
Gordon absolutely shredded AA in his professional debut last season, batting .325/.427/.588 with 29 homers and 22 steals
for Wichita. Furthermore, he showed terrific plate
discipline with a 72:113 BB:K ratio in the minors and
appears to be on the fast-track to stardom.
It’s all a question of whether someone can step up and fill that corner
outfield job to keep him down in Omaha. If not, you want to grab him immediately…
particularly in keeper leagues.
Others: Chad Tracy, Hank Blalock, Akinori Iwamura
Shortstop
Sleeper: Jhonny
Peralta – Talk about your falls from grace.
After a brilliant sophomore season in 2005, Peralta watched his average
drop 35 points and his slugging percentage drop over 100 points. Simply put, 24-year-olds generally don’t
start regressing… they continue developing.
Don’t expect for Peralta to outproduce his
brilliant campaign in 2005 (.292/.366/.520 with 24 HR and 78 RBI), but look for
him to put up numbers in that range, rather than looking like the waste of a
roster spot he was in 2006.
Super-Sleeper:
Stephen Drew – Though he had just five homers, Drew showed plenty of
promise as a rookie, smashing 25 extra-base hits (including 7 triples) in 209
at bats with the Diamondbacks last season.
He’s never going to be a major threat in the stolen base category, but
he’s more than capable of stealing a handful of bases while hitting for average
to go with double digit power.
Others: Troy Tulowitzki, B.J. Upton
Outfield
Sleeper: Rocco
Baldelli – Because of his recent injury-history, Baldelli’s
value in your draft will be difficult to gauge.
However, there’s no mistaking that he has seemingly limitless potential
when he’s healthy. One look at his
second-half splits should tell you that you’re interested, as Baldelli hit .297
with 12 homers and 9 steals after the break.
Be cautious, though. He let his
plate discipline absolutely fall off a cliff in the second half as well (7 BB
in 256 AB… 7 BB in 108 AB in the first half), meaning that his value may be a
little lower in OBP leagues than it is if your league uses batting average.
Sleeper: Coco Crisp – Moved to the leadoff spot and put under a microscope in Beantown, Crisp seemed like he completely folded under the
pressure. Actually, the broken bone in
his hand that cost him most of the season’s first two months seemed to
aggravate him all season long. He had
season-ending surgery after the Sox were eliminated, and figures to be ready to
rock entering the 2007 campaign. Though
he’ll shift down in the order to accommodate Julio Lugo, that
might actually be best for him.
Everything’s in place for him to bat .290/20/20.
Sleeper: Jeremy
Hermida – Chalk 2006 up as a lost year in his development, but there’s
little to indicate that he can’t find the groove again. Hermida never really found a groove after
missing most of the first half with an oblique injury. He has astounding discipline, emerging power,
and should prove to be a 20/20 threat for years to come.
Super-Sleeper: Jason
Kubel – Kubel never really looked comfortable last year in his return from
a knee injury that cost him the 2005 season.
He has good power, a terrific eye, and a smooth and beautiful
swing. As the Twins’ new DH, he figures
to stay well-rested and should be able to return to the form that helped him
mash 24 homers while hitting .346 between AA, AAA, and the Majors in 2004.
Super-Sleeper: Nelson
Cruz – Based on his minor league production, there’s 30/30 potential down
the line for Cruz. We might just have to
settle for 20/20 for now. He’s the heavy
favorite to win a starting job in right field.
For a young power-hitting stud in Texas,
that adds up to a fantastic season!
Super-Sleeper: Alex
Sanchez – Believe me when I say that I hate to say anything good about
Sanchez. He’s absolutely atrocious from
a power standpoint and has absolutely no plate discipline to speak of. That said, he’s
capable of swiping fifty bases if he can actually find a way to first base 100
times at some point this season. In fantasy
baseball, that’s just too hard to pass up… particularly at the end of your
draft.
Others: Jayson Werth,
Shannon Stewart, Adam Lind
Starting Pitcher
Sleeper: Matt Cain – Cain
was everyone’s sleeper entering 2006, but got knocked down several pegs after a
6-6, 5.12 (ERA), 1.39 (WHIP) first half.
A dominant late-season charge later, Cain finally looks poised to
dominate for a full season. Cain
established himself as a legitimate strikeout an inning pitcher in the second
half, while he solved some of the control issues that seemed to hinder him
early in his career. He’s a virtual lock
for 12-15 wins with an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP in the 1.25 range.
Sleeper: Chuck James
– Forget his awful August (2-2, 8.53 ERA, 1.74 WHIP) and focus on the rest
of what we saw from James last season.
He was a monster in five of six months, maintaining an ERA of 3.29 or
better and a WHIP no higher than 1.24 apart from that disappointing
August. He’s locked up his spot in the
rotation, and he’s going to be a very good one for years.
Sleeper: Boof Bonser
– Bonser struggled initially upon getting the call to the big leagues, but
he looked as good as anyone not named Johan Santana in September. The 25-year-old was once considered the prize
of the A.J. Pierzynski deal (which also netted the club Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan), and while he’ll never likely
achieve the success that either Liriano or Nathan
have, he’s still a capable number three starter in fantasy circles who brings
nice strikeout potential to the table.
Super-Sleeper: Tom Gorzelanny – The Bucs’ prized lefty was lit up like a
Christmas Tree upon his initial call to the big
leagues, allowing fourteen runs (twelve earned) in just 11+ innings in his
first three starts. However, he settled
down and then some after that. Six of Gorzelanny’s final eight starts were quality starts as he
closed the year strong. He could be big
in strikeout leagues (134 in 161 innings between AAA and the Majors last year)
and should find a way to win a few more games with an improved Pittsburgh
offense behind him.
Super-Sleeper: Randy
Wolf – While he finished the year 4-0, Wolf didn’t look like nearly the
same pitcher after he returned from Tommy John surgery as he did before. Most pitchers struggle initially after
returning from the surgery, so it shouldn’t be that surprising that he
did. When healthy, Wolf has always
proven to be a solid lefty strikeout pitcher who has outstanding control and
keeps a nice low WHIP. Toss him in
Dodger Stadium, and his numbers may actually improve a bit.
Super-Sleeper: Matt
Garza – He’ll have to win his way into the rotation, but it’s fairly safe
to say that Garza doesn’t have much to prove in the minors anymore. Minnesota’s
top prospect had a 1.99 ERA, a 154:32 K:BB ratio, and
a sub-1.00 WHIP between high A, AA, and AAA last season, and figures to slot in
as the number four for the Twins. While
he was battered around a bit last season in the majors, he should prove capable
of making the adjustments necessary to have a fine first season and win in the
double digits. While we shouldn’t expect
an ERA of better than 4.25 or so, we’ll take that considering his strikeout
potential.
Others: Kip Wells,
Homer Bailey, Yovani Gallardo, Jonathan Sanchez
Relief Pitcher
Sleeper: Brad Lidge –
Lidge enters the season extremely devalued after a horrific 2006
campaign. However, his strikeout rate
was at its usual ridiculous level while his BAA wasn’t even really that
high. The problems Lidge was dealing
with last season were mainly mental, as he didn’t seem comfortable attacking
the zone. As long as he has his
confidence back, Lidge should return to his stature as a borderline top five
closer.
Sleeper: Jose
Valverde – If you’re wondering how Valverde could do as a closer in a whole
season, it’s because we all are.
Valverde looked like Velveeta again around midseason last year as he not
only lost his closer’s job, but “earned” a demotion to the minors. Upon his return, he looked like he had his
confidence back, and was constantly on the attack. This is a make or break season for Valverde,
and he’s finally going to piece together a terrific season as the D-Backs
closer. He brings huge strikeout numbers
to the table.
Super-Sleeper:
Fernando Cabrera – Though Joe Borowski will undoubtedly enter the year as
the closer, somebody in that
Cleveland bullpen is going to have to step it up and challenge him. Our money’s on Cabrera, who proved he could
dominate the big leagues in 2005 before absolutely imploding early last season. He eventually settled down to have a decent
year after his Opening Day disaster (1.0 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 6 R, 6 ER) and struck
out over a batter an inning in the process.
Once hailed as the closer of the future in Cleveland,
he may find that Borowski isn’t much of an obstacle if he gets off to a good
start.
Super-Sleeper:
Jonathan Broxton – Don’t get me wrong.
Broxton belongs on a roster in your league no matter the format, but
we’re looking for a super-sleeper for saves here. Takashi Saito never showed nearly the
dominance in Japan
that he did last season, and he’s bound to come down a notch in his second
season in the U.S. Because of Saito’s success in the role last
season, Broxton won’t have much of an opportunity to poach the job in Spring
Training, but he’ll be right there to pick up the pieces if Saito falters. He’s a tremendous option in deep keeper
leagues who will close by 2008 at the latest.
Fantasy Baseball 
