Sophs Flying Out of the Gate
April 04, 2007
A new season means a new look at The Hook. Starting today, we'll be bringing you the same great content you've gotten for the past four years. However, rather than giving you the one huge column that you're used to, we're breaking it down to make it easier for you to find what you're looking for! To go along with this change, we'll now be writing The Hook for you three times a week instead of once. Just find what you're looking for in the categorical menu on the right!
As fantasy sports continue to grow in the overall American sports culture, so does the search for young talent among even the more casual fans. Hundreds upon thousands of columns, blogs, and websites devote much of their time to young players that many casual fans haven't even heard of to help all of us know the next big thing before it's here. While many of these projected superstars flame out early in their career, it's often just a matter of time before they break out. Today, we'll look at a handful of the young starters (predominantly second-year players) that have posted outstanding outings in the first week of the 2007 season.
Felix Hernandez - As many of you no doubt remember, you couldn't log onto the internet prior to last season without hearing that King Felix was going to be the best rookie starter since Dwight Gooden. It didn't happen for him in 2006. He was still pretty good (12-14, 4.52 ERA, 176 K in 191 innings), but not the dominant force everyone expected him to be. Alas, he was everything we expected and more on Monday as he absolutely ripped through the A's lineup, fanning twelve batters in eight scoreless innings in the process. Hernandez has a legitimate chance to join the elite starters by the end of 2007, and should do so despite the fact that the Mariners aren't likely to contend.
Cole Hamels - Hamels struggled a little upon his promotion to the majors last season, starting off 3-5 with a 5.71 ERA in his first twelve starts. However, he showed the promise that had so many Phillies fans completely stoked last June in August and September, when he went 6-3 with a 2.60 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts in 69+ innings. There was one heck of a carry-over effect Wednesday, as he looked dominant in throwing seven innings of four-hit ball against the vaunted Braves' lineup. The strikeout potential could put him on the cusp of elite status by the end of 2007, but he's going to have to fix some issues with his command to stay there. He's pretty sporadic with his control in the zone, and needs to do a better job of keeping the ball down this season.
John Maine - Watching the Cardinals-Mets game earlier tonight, I found myself asking if the Mets' pitching staff is really this good or the Cardinals' bats are just this bad right now. The Redbirds combined to score just two runs in their three run set against New York, culminating in a dominant outing by Maine. Once considered a failed prospect in the Orioles' organization, Maine found his form in the second half in New York last season, going 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He carried that brilliance over to Wednesday's start, absolutely carving the World Champs' lineup apart for seven innings in a 10-0 victory. Maine allowed just one hit and struck out six as he moved to 1-0 on the year. While his upside is considerably more limited than Hernandez and Hamels, there's no reason to believe that he won't have value as a middle of the rotation fantasy option in 2007, particularly given the lineup and defensive support.
Matt Cain - Cain wasn't plagued by the longball last season, but he was a bit on Wednesday. After allowing just 18 homers in 190 innings last season, Cain was touched up for a pair by the Padres in his season debut. Apart from that, he looked fantastic. He was locating well, throwing hard, and allowed just six baserunners while fanning six in six innings. Like Hamels and Hernandez, he's a borderline fantasy ace already.
Scott Olsen - Olsen was a little wild in his start against the Nationals on Tuesday, but he was effectively wild. He allowed just two runs on two hits to go along with five walks as he moved to 1-0 on the year. Though he fanned just two in his season debut, there's plenty of strikeout potential here for a starter that fanned 166 batters in 180 innings last season. Consider him a viable fourth starter with the upside of a number two or three.
Zach Duke - Duke nearly went toe to toe with Roy Oswalt, allowing just two runs on eight hits in the opener. His lack of strikeout production (0 Monday, though he should have little trouble fanning over 100 this season) will keep him from being anything more than a number three or four starter, but there's no saying he can't turn into a Mark Buehrle type. His control is outstanding.
Ian Snell - Not one, but two Pirate starters? That's right. Snell looked terrific Tuesday, striking out a ridiculous eleven batters in just six innings of work. He did allow a gopher ball to Jason Lane, which was a problem of his in 2006, but also found ways to limit the damage by locating well for most of the game. His strong strikeout rate is for real, and there's no saying that he couldn't be a solid number two or three starter if everything breaks right.
Tom Gorzelanny - What's this? A third Pirates' pitcher? Admittedly, he didn't have as good an overall outing as either Duke or Snell did, but he was the lone Pirates' starter to post a win in their sweep of Houston (Matt Capps and Jonah Bayliss won the first two out of the bullpen). Of their fantastic young foursome (Paul Maholm will get the call Friday in Cincinnati), Gorzelanny's probably the one with the most upside. He's always had a high strikeout rate in the minors, and he's always been more of a thinker on the mound than Snell. He's going to endure some growing pains in 2007, but should serve adequately as a back of the rotation starter for this season.
More to come: Justin Verlander (Thurs. vs. Toronto), Chuck James (Thurs. at Cincinnati), Jeremy Sowers (Thurs. at Chicago White Sox), Clay Hensley (Thurs. at San Francisco), Adam Wainwright (Fri. at Houston), Paul Maholm (Fri. at Cincinnati), James Shields (Fri. vs. Toronto), Rich Hill (Fri. at Milwaukee), Jason Hirsh (Fri. at San Diego), Anthony Reyes (Sat. at Houston)
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